Compass RE
COMP
$12.39
-4.84%
Compass, Inc. operates an end-to-end technology platform for residential real estate agents, providing software for customer relationship management, marketing, and brokerage services, primarily in the United States. As a leading tech-enabled real estate brokerage, Compass differentiates itself through its proprietary platform and large agent network, positioning itself as a disruptor in the traditional brokerage space. The current investor narrative centers on the company's recent return to profitability in Q1 2026, driven by robust revenue growth of 99.4% year-over-year, and its strategic focus on leveraging technology to gain market share. Attention is also on the stock's strong price momentum, with a 48.6% gain over the past year, as investors debate the sustainability of its growth and path to consistent profitability.…
COMP
Compass RE
$12.39
Related headlines
COMP 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Compass RE's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $15.42 and implied upside of +24.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$15.42
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+24.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$12 - $18
Analyst target range
Compass is covered by 12 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.75 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $15.42, implying an upside of approximately 18.4% from the current price of $13.02. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the consensus leans bullish, reflecting optimism about the company's growth prospects. The target price range spans from $12.00 to $18.00, indicating a wide spread of expectations. The low target of $12.00 suggests some analysts see limited upside, possibly due to concerns about market saturation or margin pressure, while the high target of $18.00 implies significant upside potential, likely based on continued strong growth and margin expansion. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of Overweight, Equal Weight, and Buy actions, with no recent downgrades, indicating stable sentiment. The wide target range suggests high uncertainty about the company's future performance, which is typical for a high-growth company in a cyclical industry.
Bulls vs Bears: COMP Investment Factors
Compass presents a compelling turnaround story with explosive revenue growth and a return to profitability, but the investment case is balanced by high volatility, thin margins, and a cyclical industry. The bull case is currently stronger, driven by the 99.4% revenue growth and the shift to positive earnings, which validates the platform's scalability. However, the single most important tension is whether the company can sustain this growth and expand margins to justify its premium valuation (EV/EBITDA of 102x). If revenue growth decelerates or margins fail to improve, the stock could face significant downside, given its high beta and dependence on the housing market.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue surged 99.4% YoY to $2.704B, up from $1.356B in Q1 2025, demonstrating exceptional market share gains and platform adoption. This acceleration from prior quarters (Q4 2025: $1.70B) signals strong momentum in the core brokerage business.
- Return to Profitability: Compass reported net income of $22M in Q1 2026, a dramatic turnaround from the -$50.7M loss in Q1 2025. This marks the first profitable quarter in recent history, validating the company's cost discipline and operating leverage.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: With a forward P/E of 15.4x and a P/S ratio of 0.87 (well below its historical average of ~2.0), the stock appears reasonably valued relative to its growth trajectory. The PEG ratio of 1.56 suggests the market is pricing in sustainable growth.
- Strong Analyst Support: The consensus rating is 'Buy' with a mean score of 1.75 (1=Strong Buy), and the average price target of $15.42 implies 18.4% upside from the current price of $13.02. No recent downgrades indicate stable sentiment.
Bearish
- High Volatility and Beta: With a beta of 2.343, Compass is 2.3x more volatile than the market, amplifying downside risk in market downturns. The stock's max drawdown of -50.81% highlights the potential for severe losses.
- Thin Profitability: Despite Q1 2026 profitability, the net margin is only 0.8% (net income of $22M on $2.7B revenue), leaving little room for error. Operating margin remains negative at -0.4%, indicating ongoing operational challenges.
- High Valuation Multiples: The EV/EBITDA ratio of 102.1x and P/B ratio of 7.73 are extremely elevated, suggesting the market is pricing in aggressive future growth. Any disappointment could lead to significant multiple compression.
- Dependence on Real Estate Cycle: As a residential real estate brokerage, Compass is highly sensitive to housing market conditions, interest rates, and macroeconomic factors. A slowdown in home sales or a rise in mortgage rates could severely impact revenue.
COMP Technical Analysis
Compass is in a strong uptrend, with the stock price at $13.02 as of August 14, 2026, up 48.6% over the past year. The current price is near the top of its 52-week range, sitting at approximately 93% of the range (calculated as (13.02 - 6.37) / (13.955 - 6.37) = 0.93), indicating strong momentum and investor optimism. This positioning near the highs suggests the market is rewarding the company's recent performance, but also raises concerns about potential overextension. The stock's beta of 2.343 indicates it is significantly more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves.
Beta
2.34
2.34x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-50.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$6-$14
Price range past year
Annual Return
+41.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | COMP Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +3.3% | +4.0% |
| 3m | +63.5% | +5.3% |
| 6m | +18.5% | +12.6% |
| 1y | +41.1% | +20.1% |
| ytd | +18.0% | +13.3% |
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COMP Fundamental Analysis
Compass's revenue trajectory has been robust, with Q1 2026 revenue of $2.704 billion, representing a 99.4% year-over-year growth rate, a substantial acceleration from the prior year's Q1 revenue of $1.356 billion. This growth is driven by strong gross commission income of $2.453 billion, along with franchise and service revenues of $74 million and $143 million, respectively. The multi-quarter trend shows a clear upward trajectory, with revenue increasing from $1.38 billion in Q4 2024 to $2.70 billion in Q1 2026, indicating accelerating growth. This impressive top-line performance is a key driver of the investment case, as it demonstrates the company's ability to capture market share in a competitive real estate services industry.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+99.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
25.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$15800000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is COMP Overvalued?
Given that Compass reported positive net income of $22 million in Q1 2026, the trailing P/E ratio is -105.7, which is not meaningful due to the company's historical losses. Instead, the forward P/E of 15.4 is more relevant, as it reflects the market's expectation of future earnings. The gap between the trailing and forward P/E highlights the market's anticipation of a significant earnings turnaround, which is supported by the company's recent profitability. Compared to the industry average P/E, Compass's forward P/E of 15.4 appears reasonable, though the industry average is not provided. The stock's P/S ratio of 0.87 is below the historical average of around 2.0, suggesting the stock is trading at a discount to its own historical valuation, which may indicate undervaluation or reflect the market's skepticism about the sustainability of its growth.
PE
-105.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
102.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Compass's financial health is improving but remains fragile. The company reported a net income of $22M in Q1 2026, but its operating margin is still negative at -0.4%, and the net margin is a razor-thin 0.8%. The current ratio of 0.86 indicates potential short-term liquidity issues, and while debt-to-equity is moderate at 0.61, the company's high EV/EBITDA of 102x suggests the market is pricing in significant future earnings growth. If the company fails to maintain profitability or if revenue growth decelerates, the stock could face severe de-rating. Additionally, free cash flow of just $15.8M TTM is minimal, leaving little cushion for unexpected downturns.