Core Scientific, Inc. Common Stock
CORZ
$13.20
-7.37%
Core Scientific, Inc. designs, builds, and operates high-density digital infrastructure spanning three segments: Digital Asset Self-Mining (mining bitcoin for its own account, the largest revenue contributor at roughly $150 million of the most recent quarterly total), Digital Asset Hosted Mining (hosting third-party miners), and Colocation, which provides high-density capacity to AI/HPC customers. The company is a scaled, publicly listed bitcoin miner that is repositioning itself as an AI/HPC data-center landlord — a capital-intensive pivot that distinguishes it from pure-play miners and places it in direct competition with other miner-to-AI converters such as TeraWulf and Cipher. The investor narrative is dominated by the AI colocation conversion thesis, validated sector-wide by landmark hyperscaler lease deals (e.g., TeraWulf's reported $19B Anthropic contract), against a backdrop of persistent GAAP losses, heavy capex, and a stock that has fallen sharply from its highs. Debate centers on whether contracted AI/HPC revenue can scale fast enough to offset bitcoin-mining economics, dilution, and a balance sheet that has been reshaped by large debt repayments and new financing.…
CORZ
Core Scientific, Inc. Common Stock
$13.20
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CORZ Today?
Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that Core Scientific offers genuine optionality on the AI/HPC colocation build-out, but the absence of contracted AI revenue, severe cash burn, and a broken technical trend mean the risk/reward is not yet compelling for new capital. The analyst consensus is 'strong_buy' with a mean rating of 1.32 and an average target of $32.62, implying +142% upside, but the market is clearly discounting these targets given the stock's -31.47% one-year decline and the wide $16-$47 target range.
Supporting evidence is mixed. On the positive side, revenue grew 108.83% year-over-year to $164.20 million in Q2 2026, gross margin expanded to 42.66% from 25.81% in Q1, and the PS multiple has compressed 71% from its Q2 2026 peak to 14.52x. However, trailing free cash flow is -$967.87 million, operating margin is -70.39%, and the forward PE of 82.82x on consensus EPS of $0.985 already prices in a dramatic profitability swing. The stock trades at 16.54x EV/Sales, a steep premium to data-center REIT peers, leaving little room for execution missteps.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: (1) failure to announce a material AI colocation contract within the next two quarters, (2) further equity dilution to fund the -$565 million quarterly capex, and (3) a bitcoin price decline that compresses mining margins. The rating would upgrade to Buy if Core announces a hyperscaler-grade contract representing more than 20% of forward revenue, or if the stock stabilizes above the $16-$18 resistance zone with improving relative strength. It would downgrade to Sell if the stock breaks below the $12.31 52-week low on volume, or if free cash flow burn accelerates beyond -$600 million per quarter. Relative to its own history, the stock is cheaper than a year ago on PS, but relative to peers and its unprofitable status, it remains expensive; the verdict is fairly valued to slightly overvalued given execution risk.
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CORZ 12-Month Price Forecast
Core Scientific presents a high-risk, high-reward optionality play on the AI data-center build-out, but the evidence is not yet sufficient to justify a bullish stance. The revenue trajectory is impressive at +108.83% year-over-year, and gross margin expansion to 42.66% shows operating leverage, yet the company remains deeply cash-flow negative and dependent on financing. The analyst consensus is strongly bullish with a $32.62 average target, but the stock's -31.47% one-year decline and -47.00% relative strength versus the S&P 500 suggest the market is skeptical of execution. I would upgrade to bullish if Core announces a material AI colocation contract or if free cash flow burn narrows below $300 million per quarter; I would downgrade to bearish if the stock breaks below $12.31 or if capex guidance increases without corresponding contracted revenue.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Core Scientific, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $32.62 and implied upside of +147.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$32.62
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+147.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$16 - $47
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust, with 21 analysts and a consensus recommendation of "strong_buy" (mean rating 1.32 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $32.62, which implies roughly +142% upside from the current $13.48 — an unusually large gap that signals either significant undervaluation or stale/optimistic models relative to the price action. The consensus clearly leans bullish, and the estimated FY EPS average of $0.985 (range $0.807-$1.328) alongside estimated revenue of $3.31 billion (range $2.85-$4.20 billion) shows analysts expect a massive step-up in both sales and profitability versus the current ~$164 million quarterly run-rate. The target range is extremely wide — $16.00 low to $47.00 high, a roughly 2.9x spread — which signals high uncertainty and low conviction in any single outcome. The high target of $47 likely assumes successful AI/HPC colocation contract wins, multiple expansion toward infrastructure-platform comparables, and a return to GAAP profitability; the low target of $16 prices in continued mining-margin compression, delayed colocation ramp, dilution, and the current cash burn. Institutional ratings show a constructive tilt with recent upgrades — Keefe, Bruyette & Woods moved to Outperform from Market Perform on 2026-07-30, and B. Riley, Canaccord, Macquarie, Needham, BTIG, and Jefferies all maintain Buy/Outperform — but the wide dispersion and the stock's -31% one-year decline suggest the market is discounting these targets heavily, and the low end of $16 sits only ~19% above the current price, underscoring meaningful downside risk if execution slips.
Bulls vs Bears: CORZ Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: the stock is in a confirmed downtrend, cash burn is severe, and the AI colocation revenue that justifies the valuation is not yet visible in reported financials. The bull case rests on forward-looking catalysts—revenue acceleration, gross margin expansion, and a strongly bullish analyst consensus with a $32.62 average target—that have not yet been validated by contract announcements or segment disclosure. The single most important tension is whether Core Scientific can announce and ramp hyperscaler-grade AI colocation contracts before its cash burn forces further dilution or financing on unfavorable terms. Resolution of that question—likely via a material contract win or a disappointing earnings update—will determine whether the stock re-rates toward the $32.62 consensus or breaks below the $12.31 52-week low.
Bullish
- Revenue accelerating at triple-digit pace: Q2 2026 revenue of $164.20 million grew 108.83% year-over-year and 42.5% sequentially from Q1's $115.24 million, marking three consecutive quarters of sequential acceleration. This top-line momentum, even if currently mining-led, demonstrates the operating leverage inherent in Core's high-density infrastructure.
- Gross margin expansion signals unit economics: Quarterly gross margin jumped to 42.66% in Q2 2026 from 25.81% in Q1 and 26.18% in Q4 2025, a 1,648-basis-point sequential improvement. This suggests that as revenue scales, the incremental cost of capacity is low, a critical prerequisite for the AI/HPC colocation pivot to be value-accretive.
- Analyst consensus strongly bullish with huge upside: 21 analysts rate CORZ a 'strong_buy' (mean 1.32) with an average target of $32.62, implying +142% upside from $13.48. Recent upgrades (Keefe, Bruyette & Woods to Outperform on 2026-07-30) and Buy ratings from B. Riley, Canaccord, Macquarie, Needham, BTIG, and Jefferies underscore institutional conviction.
- AI colocation thesis validated sector-wide: TeraWulf's reported $19 billion Anthropic lease validates the miner-to-AI-infrastructure crossover, and Core Scientific is one of the few scaled operators with existing high-density capacity. Even though colocation is only $20.08 million of Q2 revenue, the addressable opportunity is enormous and Core's 325 employees and existing infrastructure position it to capture hyperscaler demand.
Bearish
- Falling-knife technical breakdown: CORZ is down 31.47% over one year, 35.63% over three months, and 20.14% over one month, with the most recent session falling 6.75% on 22.3 million shares. At $13.48, it sits just 3.8% above the 52-week low of $12.31 and 55.7% below the 52-week high, with relative strength of -47.00% vs. SPY over one year, signaling aggressive distribution rather than accumulation.
- Cash burn and negative free cash flow: Trailing free cash flow is -$967.87 million, with Q2 2026 FCF of -$583.95 million on capex of -$565.02 million and operating cash flow of -$18.93 million. The company depends on external financing, evidenced by $2.22 billion of net cash from financing in Q2, and the current ratio of 1.146 is only marginally adequate.
- GAAP losses driven by non-operating items: Q2 2026 net income was -$1.155 billion (EPS -$3.32) against operating income of -$72.13 million, with a -$1.081 billion non-operating expense line dominating the loss. Trailing net margin is -90.47% and operating margin -70.39%, and the negative shareholders' equity (PB -4.81) makes traditional leverage metrics unreliable.
- Revenue still overwhelmingly mining-dependent: Digital Asset Mining Service contributed $149.96 million of Q2's $164.20 million revenue, while Hosting Service was just $20.08 million. The AI/HPC colocation narrative is not yet visible in reported results, leaving the business highly levered to bitcoin mining economics and hashprice volatility.
CORZ Technical Analysis
CORZ is in a sustained, broad downtrend: the stock is down 31.47% over the past year, 35.63% over three months, and 32.09% over six months, with a max drawdown of -53.77% from its peak. At $13.48, the shares sit just 3.8% above the 52-week low of $12.31 and 55.7% below the 52-week high of $30.46 — effectively trading at roughly 6.4% of the 52-week range (i.e., near the very bottom). That positioning signals a falling-knife setup rather than a value opportunity: the stock has surrendered nearly all of its 2026 gains and is probing the lower boundary of its annual range. Momentum is uniformly negative and worsening: the 1-month change of -20.14% is steeper than the 3-month -35.63% and 1-year -31.47%, indicating deceleration rather than stabilization, and the most recent session alone fell 6.75% on 22.3 million shares. Relative strength is deeply negative across every window (-21.36% vs. SPY over 1 month, -47.00% over 1 year, -38.32% over 3 months), confirming the stock is being sold aggressively even as the S&P 500 gained 1.22% over the past month — a clear negative divergence from the market. The 1-month trend conflicting with an already weak 1-year trend points to capitulation/trend continuation rather than mean reversion, and the elevated short interest (short ratio 5.85) raises the risk of sharp squeezes but does not offset the dominant downtrend. Key levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $12.31, and a decisive breakdown below that would signal a new leg lower and likely force further de-risking; resistance is the 52-week high of $30.46, with intermediate supply likely near the $16-$18 zone where the stock repeatedly failed in September. The beta of 5.481 is extraordinary — roughly 5.5x the volatility of SPY — meaning position sizing must be dramatically smaller than a market-beta name, and a 1% market move implies roughly 5.5% moves here; combined with the -53.77% max drawdown, this is a high-risk, high-torque instrument unsuitable for large allocations.
Beta
5.48
5.48x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-54.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$12-$30
Price range past year
Annual Return
-25.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CORZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -29.7% | -1.2% |
| 3m | -42.0% | +3.4% |
| 6m | -36.8% | +7.0% |
| 1y | -25.8% | +14.4% |
| ytd | -17.4% | +12.0% |
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CORZ Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing but lumpy: Q2 2026 revenue of $164.20 million rose 108.83% year-over-year (from roughly $78.6 million in Q2 2025), and was up 42.5% sequentially from Q1 2026's $115.24 million, while Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 came in at $79.76 million and $81.10 million respectively. The segment mix shows Digital Asset Mining Service at $149.96 million versus Hosting Service at just $20.08 million, meaning the AI/HPC colocation narrative is not yet visible in reported revenue — the business remains overwhelmingly levered to bitcoin self-mining economics. The trajectory is encouraging at the top line (three consecutive quarters of sequential acceleration), but the investment case hinges on whether colocation contracts can diversify the revenue base before mining margins compress. Profitability is deeply challenged on a GAAP basis: Q2 2026 net income was -$1.155 billion (EPS -$3.32) against gross profit of $70.04 million (42.66% gross margin), with the loss driven overwhelmingly by a -$1.081 billion non-operating "other income/expense" line rather than operations. Operating income was -$72.13 million (operating margin -43.93%) and EBITDA was -$1.114 billion, while trailing net margin stands at -90.47% and operating margin at -70.39% — though the quarterly gross margin of 42.66% is a genuine improvement from 25.81% in Q1 2026 and 26.18% in Q4 2025, suggesting core unit economics are strengthening even as headline losses balloon from mark-to-market and financing items. The gap between gross margin (42.66%) and operating margin (-43.93%) reflects heavy SG&A and D&A relative to a still-small revenue base, typical of a capital-intensive infrastructure build-out. Balance-sheet and cash-flow signals are mixed and warrant caution: trailing free cash flow is -$967.87 million, Q2 2026 FCF was -$583.95 million on capex of -$565.02 million, and operating cash flow was -$18.93 million, meaning the company is consuming cash to fund growth and depends on external financing. That dependence is visible in Q2's $2.22 billion net cash from financing and $2.23 billion of debt repayment, which lifted cash to $2.55 billion; the current ratio of 1.146 is adequate but not comfortable, and the reported debt-to-equity of -1.10 and ROE of 29.98% are artifacts of negative shareholders' equity (PB of -4.81), so traditional leverage metrics are unreliable. ROA of -2.43% confirms the asset base is not yet generating positive returns, and with FCF yield deeply negative, financial risk remains elevated until colocation revenue scales.
Quarterly Revenue
$164201000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+108.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
42.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-967869000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CORZ Overvalued?
Because trailing net income is negative (EPS -$0.06, trailing PE of -16.55), the PE ratio is not meaningful and I lead with the PS ratio: 14.52x trailing sales and 16.54x EV/Sales, against a forward PE of 82.82x on consensus FY EPS of $0.985. The enormous gap between the negative trailing PE and the positive 82.82x forward PE implies the market expects a dramatic swing to profitability — consistent with the AI/HPC colocation thesis — but at 14.5x sales the stock is already priced for substantial execution, leaving little room for disappointment. Peer comparison is constrained because the provided valuation dataset contains no explicit industry-average multiples; however, a 14.52x PS and 16.54x EV/Sales are far above typical infrastructure or data-center REIT multiples (generally low-to-mid single digits on sales) and even above most high-growth software peers, implying a steep premium that can only be justified by hyperscaler-grade contracted growth. The PEG ratio of 0.20 looks superficially cheap but is distorted by the negative/near-zero earnings base and should not be relied upon. Historical context shows the stock's own PS band has compressed sharply: PS was 50.70x in Q2 2026, 41.92x in Q1 2026, 58.11x in Q4 2025, and 70.47x in Q3 2025, versus 14.52x today — meaning the multiple has collapsed roughly 71% from the Q2 2026 peak and about 79% from the Q3 2025 high. That compression reflects both the falling share price and rising revenue; while it argues the valuation is far less stretched than a year ago, the negative PB (-4.81) and negative EV/EBITDA (-25.88) confirm the company is still unprofitable, so the de-rating is a reflection of deteriorating sentiment and fundamentals rather than a clean value signal.
PE
-16.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~5x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-25.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are substantial. Trailing free cash flow is -$967.87 million, with Q2 2026 alone burning -$583.95 million on capex of -$565.02 million, and operating cash flow was -$18.93 million. The company funded this via $2.22 billion of net financing in Q2, lifting cash to $2.55 billion, but the current ratio of 1.146 leaves little cushion if financing conditions tighten. Revenue concentration is extreme: $149.96 million of Q2's $164.20 million came from bitcoin self-mining, so a decline in hashprice or a bitcoin price drop would directly impair the cash-generating engine that funds the AI pivot. Additionally, the -$1.081 billion non-operating expense in Q2 shows earnings are highly volatile due to mark-to-market and financing items, making GAAP results an unreliable guide to operating performance.
Market and competitive risks are amplified by the stock's extraordinary beta of 5.481, meaning a 1% move in the S&P 500 implies roughly a 5.5% move in CORZ. The PS ratio of 14.52x and EV/Sales of 16.54x are far above typical data-center REIT multiples (low-to-mid single digits), leaving the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints. Competition from TeraWulf, Cipher, and other miner-to-AI converters is intensifying; TeraWulf's reported $19 billion Anthropic lease sets a high bar, and Core has not yet announced a comparable contract. Regulatory risk includes potential changes to bitcoin mining taxation or energy regulations, while sector rotation away from high-beta technology and crypto-linked names could accelerate the de-rating already evident in the 71% PS compression from Q2 2026.
In a worst-case scenario, Core Scientific fails to announce a material AI colocation contract in the next two quarters, bitcoin mining margins compress due to rising network difficulty or a bitcoin price decline, and the company is forced to raise equity at depressed prices. The stock would likely retest and break below its 52-week low of $12.31, with the analyst low target of $16.00 offering little support. From the current $13.48, a move to the 52-week low represents a -8.7% loss, but a break below could target the $10-$11 range, implying a -18% to -26% decline. Given the -53.77% max drawdown already experienced, a further 30-40% drawdown from current levels is plausible if the bear case fully materializes, bringing the stock to roughly $8-$9.
FAQ
The most severe risk is liquidity and cash burn: trailing free cash flow is -$967.87 million, and the company depends on external financing, with a current ratio of only 1.146. Second is revenue concentration: 91% of Q2 revenue came from bitcoin self-mining, so a bitcoin price decline or rising network difficulty would directly impair cash flow. Third is execution risk on the AI pivot: no material hyperscaler contract has been announced, and competitors like TeraWulf have already secured $19 billion deals. Fourth is market risk: beta of 5.481 means the stock is highly sensitive to market swings, and the -53.77% max drawdown shows the potential for severe losses. Finally, dilution risk is high given the need to fund -$565 million quarterly capex.
The 12-month forecast has three scenarios: a bull case (25% probability) targeting $32.62-$47.00 if a major AI colocation contract is announced and margins hold above 40%; a base case (50% probability) targeting $16.00-$22.00 if the AI ramp is slower and mining remains dominant; and a bear case (25% probability) targeting $8.00-$12.31 if bitcoin declines and financing becomes dilutive. The base case is most likely, assuming no material hyperscaler contract within 12 months and a range-bound bitcoin price. The key assumption is that Core avoids a liquidity crisis through a mix of debt and modest equity, allowing the stock to trade between the analyst low target and the $22 resistance zone.
CORZ is fairly valued to slightly overvalued on current fundamentals. The PS ratio of 14.52x and EV/Sales of 16.54x are steep premiums to data-center REIT peers (typically low-to-mid single digits) and reflect the market's expectation of a successful AI pivot. The forward PE of 82.82x on consensus EPS of $0.985 already prices in a dramatic profitability swing from the current -$0.06 trailing EPS. However, the PS multiple has compressed 71% from its Q2 2026 peak of 50.70x, so the stock is much cheaper than a year ago. The market is paying for future growth, not current earnings; if the AI colocation revenue fails to materialize, the stock could de-rate further toward the $16 analyst low target.
From a risk/reward perspective, CORZ is a high-risk speculative buy only for investors who can tolerate extreme volatility (beta 5.481) and potential further drawdown. The analyst consensus target of $32.62 implies +142% upside, and the stock trades just 3.8% above its 52-week low of $12.31, which could provide a near-term floor. However, the company burned -$967.87 million in trailing free cash flow and has not yet announced a material AI colocation contract, so the downside risk to the $8-$12 range is real. It is a good buy for long-term investors with a 3-5 year horizon who believe in the AI infrastructure pivot and can size the position at 1-2% of a portfolio; it is not suitable for conservative or short-term investors.
CORZ is suitable only for long-term investors with a 3-5 year horizon who can tolerate extreme volatility and potential drawdowns. The stock pays no dividend, has a beta of 5.481, and its earnings visibility is low because the AI colocation revenue is not yet contracted. Short-term trading is extremely risky given the falling-knife technical setup (down 20.14% in one month, 6.75% in the latest session) and the stock sitting just above its 52-week low. A minimum holding period of 3 years is suggested to allow the AI pivot to mature and for colocation revenue to become a meaningful portion of the top line. Investors should size positions at 1-2% of portfolio and use stop-losses near the $12.31 support level.