CRWD

CrowdStrike

$562.57

+3.00%
May 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. is a cloud-native cybersecurity company that provides a unified platform for endpoint, cloud workload, identity, and security operations protection through its Falcon platform. The company is a recognized market leader and disruptor in the security software industry, known for its AI-native, single-agent architecture that consolidates multiple security functions. The current investor narrative is dominated by the accelerating adoption of AI in cybersecurity, with recent news highlighting how AI-powered threats are forcing enterprises to upgrade defenses, creating a major tailwind for platform providers like CrowdStrike, while also sparking debate over whether the company is a beneficiary of or vulnerable to the agentic AI revolution.

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CRWD 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $562.57
Average Target $562.57
High Target $646.9555
Low Target $478.1845

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on CrowdStrike's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $731.34 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$731.34

8 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

8

covering this stock

Price Range

$450 - $731

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (25%)
Hold
4 (50%)
Sell
2 (25%)

Analyst coverage for CrowdStrike is substantial, with 10 analysts providing estimates, indicating strong institutional interest. The consensus sentiment is bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional rating actions including upgrades from Wolfe Research (to Outperform) and Morgan Stanley (to Overweight) in March 2026. The average revenue estimate for the forward period is $11.513 billion, with a tight range between $11.328 billion and $11.730 billion, suggesting high conviction in the near-term growth trajectory. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data, but the recent upgrades and bullish commentary imply positive price targets; the lack of a specific average target price necessitates stating that while coverage is robust, the exact implied upside calculation is data not available, though the prevailing analyst actions signal a constructive outlook. The wide dispersion in historical valuation multiples, coupled with the focused revenue estimate range, indicates analysts have high conviction on growth fundamentals but acknowledge significant uncertainty around the appropriate premium for those fundamentals in a volatile market for growth stocks.

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Bulls vs Bears: CRWD Investment Factors

The evidence currently tilts slightly bullish, primarily due to CrowdStrike's strong underlying business fundamentals—robust cash flow, solid growth, and improving margins—coupled with a valuation that is reasonable relative to its own history. However, the bear case is substantiated by clear signs of growth deceleration and inconsistent profitability. The single most important tension in the investment debate is the resolution of the company's growth trajectory. If CrowdStrike can re-accelerate revenue growth above 25% while sustaining its path to GAAP profitability, the bull thesis will strengthen significantly. Conversely, if growth decelerates further towards the mid-teens, the stock's premium valuation will be difficult to justify, likely leading to multiple compression and prolonged underperformance.

Bullish

  • Robust Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generates substantial free cash flow, with $1.24 billion on a TTM basis. This strong cash generation provides internal funding for growth and signals a fundamentally sound business model, even as GAAP profitability remains inconsistent.
  • Strong Revenue Growth & Platform Scale: CrowdStrike continues to deliver robust top-line growth, with Q4 revenue of $1.305 billion representing 23.32% YoY growth. The business is heavily subscription-based ($2.345B vs. $129M services), indicating a sticky, recurring revenue model with high visibility.
  • Improving Operational Efficiency: Gross margin expanded significantly from 73.46% in Q2 to 76.34% in Q4, demonstrating operating leverage as the platform scales. The company also swung from a net loss of -$33.9M in Q3 to a net income of $38.7M in Q4, showing a path to sustainable profitability.
  • AI Cybersecurity Tailwind: Recent news highlights that AI-powered threats are forcing enterprises to upgrade defenses, creating a major tailwind for AI-native platform providers like CrowdStrike. This narrative, centered on the 'agentic AI revolution,' supports continued high demand for its offerings.

Bearish

  • Revenue Growth Deceleration: The 23.32% YoY revenue growth, while strong, represents a deceleration from the 30%+ rates seen in prior years. This trend suggests the company is maturing, and any further slowdown could pressure its premium valuation multiple.
  • Inconsistent GAAP Profitability: Despite strong cash flow, GAAP profitability remains volatile, with a TTM net margin of -3.38% and a negative ROE of -3.67%. The quarterly net income swung from -$33.9M to +$38.7M, indicating earnings are not yet on a stable, predictable upward trajectory.
  • Premium Valuation vs. Peers: A trailing PS ratio of 23.17x represents a significant premium to the broader software industry. This premium is justified by growth but remains vulnerable to compression if growth decelerates further or if market sentiment shifts away from high-multiple stocks.
  • Pronounced Stock Downtrend & Volatility: The stock is down -16.09% over the past six months and has underperformed the S&P 500 by -21.75% over that period. With a beta of 1.072, it exhibits above-market volatility, which has led to a significant drawdown and creates near-term price risk.

CRWD Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend over the past six months, with a price decline of -16.09% over that period, though it has shown a modest 1-year gain of 5.50%. The current price of $455.64 sits at approximately 50% of its 52-week range, positioned between the 52-week high of $566.9 and low of $342.72, indicating the stock is in a mid-range consolidation phase after a significant correction, suggesting a balance between value-seeking and lingering caution. Recent momentum shows a sharp divergence, with a strong 1-month rally of 15.85% significantly outpacing the 3-month gain of 3.22%, signaling a potential short-term recovery attempt or oversold bounce within the context of the longer-term downtrend. This divergence suggests the stock may be attempting to establish a bottom, but the recovery lacks confirmation from the longer-term trends. Key technical support is at the 52-week low area near $342.72, while resistance lies at the 52-week high of $566.9. A breakout above the recent recovery highs near $470 would be needed to signal a more durable trend reversal. With a beta of 1.072, the stock exhibits volatility slightly above the broader market, which is important for risk-aware position sizing given its recent price swings.

Beta

1.06

1.06x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-37.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$343-$568

Price range past year

Annual Return

+27.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCRWD ReturnS&P 500
1m+39.9%+8.2%
3m+36.7%+9.0%
6m+4.7%+10.5%
1y+27.8%+26.5%
ytd+24.0%+8.9%

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CRWD Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth remains robust but shows signs of sequential deceleration; the most recent quarterly revenue was $1.305 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 23.32%, a deceleration from the 30%+ growth rates seen in prior years. The revenue segment data shows Subscription revenue of $2.345 billion dwarfing Professional Services at $129 million, indicating the core platform is the primary growth driver. This decelerating yet still-strong growth trajectory suggests the company is maturing while maintaining a significant expansion runway. Profitability is improving but remains inconsistent on a quarterly basis; the company reported net income of $38.7 million and a gross margin of 76.34% for the latest quarter, a significant recovery from the net loss of -$33.9 million in the prior quarter. The gross margin has expanded from 73.46% in Q2 to 76.34% in Q4, indicating improving operational efficiency and scale benefits, though the trailing twelve-month net margin remains negative at -3.38%. The balance sheet and cash flow position are strong, with a healthy current ratio of 1.77, a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.185, and robust free cash flow of $1.240 billion on a TTM basis. The company's ROE is negative at -3.67%, reflecting recent periods of net loss, but the substantial free cash flow generation of over $1.2 billion indicates the business model is fundamentally cash-generative and can internally fund its growth initiatives without reliance on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.3B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.23%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.76%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.2B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Professional Services
Subscription And Circulation

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Valuation Analysis: Is CRWD Overvalued?

Given the trailing net income is marginally negative at approximately -$0.0015 per share, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 23.17x, while the forward-looking valuation can be inferred from the market cap of $111.5 billion against analyst revenue estimates of $11.513 billion, implying a forward PS of approximately 9.7x. The significant gap between trailing and implied forward multiples reflects the market's expectation of continued high revenue growth and a path to sustained profitability. Compared to the broader software industry, a PS ratio of 23x is at a significant premium, typical for high-growth, platform-based cybersecurity leaders; this premium is justified by CrowdStrike's superior growth profile, platform consolidation narrative, and expanding margins relative to many peers. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated widely, from a low near 40x in early 2022 to a high over 170x during the peak growth phase in 2021; the current PS of 23.17x is at the lower end of its multi-year historical range, suggesting the market has priced in a more realistic growth profile and the stock is not extended relative to its own history, potentially offering a more attractive entry point for long-term investors.

PE

-686.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -1083x~14299x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

892.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks center on the company's ability to translate high revenue growth into consistent, bottom-line profitability. While free cash flow is strong at $1.24 billion TTM, GAAP net income remains volatile, with a TTM net margin of -3.38%. The quarterly swing from a $38.7 million profit to a prior $33.9 million loss highlights earnings instability. Furthermore, revenue growth has decelerated to 23.32% YoY from higher historical rates; a continuation of this trend could challenge the premium valuation. The business is also heavily concentrated in its subscription platform, which, while a strength, creates dependency on a single product family for nearly all revenue.

Market & Competitive Risks are elevated given the stock's premium valuation. The trailing PS ratio of 23.17x is high relative to the software sector, making the stock susceptible to valuation compression in a rising interest rate environment or a sector rotation away from growth. The beta of 1.072 indicates above-market volatility, which has been evident in the stock's -37.18% max drawdown and significant underperformance versus the S&P 500 over the past year. Competitively, the rapid evolution of AI-powered cyber threats, as highlighted in recent news, is a double-edged sword—it drives demand but also increases the pace of required innovation, raising the stakes for platform relevance.

The Worst-Case Scenario involves a combination of accelerated growth deceleration, a failure to achieve sustained GAAP profitability, and a broader market de-rating of high-multiple software stocks. This could trigger a wave of analyst downgrades and a re-rating towards the stock's historical valuation lows. The chain of events could see the stock retest its 52-week low of $342.72, representing a downside of approximately -25% from the current price of $455.64. A breach of that level could lead to a further decline towards the $300 range, particularly if quarterly earnings disappoint and cash flow growth stalls, potentially resulting in a total loss of -35% or more for investors entering at current levels.