CTRA

Coterra Energy

$33.65

+2.19%
Apr 23, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Coterra Energy Inc. is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) across premier U.S. shale basins, including the Permian Basin, the Marcellus Shale, and the Anadarko Basin. The company is a significant, diversified operator with a focus on multi-well, repeatable development programs, positioning it as a major player in the North American energy sector. The current investor narrative is dominated by the transformative $58 billion merger with Devon Energy, which is expected to create a dominant, cash-generating shale operator with significant synergies and enhanced shareholder returns, driving intense debate about its future scale, cost savings, and competitive positioning within the consolidating E&P industry.

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CTRA 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $33.65
Average Target $33.65
High Target $38.6975
Low Target $28.6025

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coterra Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $43.74 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$43.74

2 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

2

covering this stock

Price Range

$27 - $44

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (50%)
Sell
1 (50%)

Analyst coverage for Coterra is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating this may be a mid-cap stock with less institutional scrutiny or that coverage is in flux post-merger announcement. The consensus leans bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings from firms like Citigroup, Mizuho, Barclays, and Piper Sandler all maintaining Buy or Overweight equivalents, though Scotiabank downgraded to Sector Perform in February 2026. The average revenue estimate for the coming period is $8.81 billion, with a range from $7.97 billion to $9.45 billion, and the average EPS estimate is $3.46, ranging from $3.03 to $3.79; the wide target spread for both revenue and EPS signals high uncertainty, likely stemming from the pending merger integration, volatile commodity prices, and execution risks, which is typical for a company undergoing a major transformational deal.

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CTRA Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +19.50%, but is currently experiencing a significant pullback from recent highs. As of the latest close at $30.89, the price sits approximately 83.7% of its 52-week range ($22.33 to $36.88), indicating it has retreated meaningfully from its peak but remains well above its annual low, suggesting a consolidation phase after a strong rally. Recent momentum has turned sharply negative, with the stock down -7.71% over the past month, which starkly contrasts with its strong 3-month gain of +20.15% and 6-month surge of +35.48%; this divergence signals a potential near-term correction or profit-taking phase following the extended advance. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $22.33, while immediate resistance is at the recent high of $36.88; a sustained breakdown below the $30 level could signal a deeper correction towards the $27-$28 range, whereas a reclaim of the $33-$34 zone would suggest the uptrend is resuming. The stock's beta of 0.27 indicates it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market (SPY), which is unusual for an energy stock but may reflect its perceived stability and income characteristics; however, the recent -15.07% relative strength versus the SPY over one month highlights it is currently underperforming in a rising market.

Beta

0.27

0.27x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-23.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$22-$37

Price range past year

Annual Return

+32.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCTRA ReturnS&P 500
1m-3.9%+8.5%
3m+22.7%+2.8%
6m+42.9%+4.6%
1y+32.7%+32.3%
ytd+26.5%+3.9%

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CTRA Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been robust but volatile, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.79 billion representing a 23.8% year-over-year increase; however, examining the quarterly sequence from Q1 2025 ($2.02B) to Q4 2025 ($1.79B) shows a sequential decline, indicating potential quarter-to-quarter volatility tied to commodity prices and production levels. The company is solidly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $368 million and a trailing twelve-month net margin of 62.4%; gross margin for the quarter was 31.1%, which is down from the 44.9% reported in Q1 2025, reflecting margin compression likely due to changing product mix and cost inflation, though the operating margin remains strong at 22.5%. Balance sheet health is sound, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27 and a current ratio of 1.19, indicating manageable leverage and adequate short-term liquidity; the company generates substantial cash flow, with free cash flow TTM of $1.63 billion, providing ample internal funding for capital expenditures, dividends (payout ratio of 39.7%), and potential debt reduction, while an ROE of 11.6% demonstrates decent returns on shareholder equity.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.8B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.23%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.31%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.6B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is CTRA Overvalued?

Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 11.67x, while the forward PE is 10.21x, based on estimated EPS of $3.46; the modest discount of the forward multiple suggests the market anticipates stable, but not explosive, earnings growth in the near term. Compared to sector averages, Coterra's valuation appears mixed: its trailing PE of 11.67x is below the typical range for high-growth E&P peers but reasonable for a mature, cash-generative operator, while its Price-to-Sales ratio of 7.28x and EV/EBITDA of 4.94x are key metrics for energy investors that suggest a moderate valuation relative to cash flow generation. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 11.67x sits near the middle of its own historical range observed over recent quarters, which has fluctuated from as low as 4.21x in mid-2022 to over 22x in 2023; this positioning suggests the market is not pricing in extreme optimism nor pessimism, but rather a balanced view of its earnings power and commodity price exposure.

PE

11.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 4x~57x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

4.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure