Coterra Energy Inc.
CTRA
$35.14
-2.14%
Coterra Energy Inc. is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons. It is a diversified operator with core assets in premier U.S. shale basins, including the Permian, Marcellus, and Anadarko, which provides operational stability and growth optionality.…
CTRA
Coterra Energy Inc.
$35.14
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CTRA Today?
Based on a synthesis of strong financials, reasonable core valuation, positive analyst sentiment, and clear operational strengths, the objective assessment points to a 'Buy' rating. The company's robust cash generation, disciplined capital structure, and growth in a challenging environment are significant positives. However, this recommendation is tempered by the stock's extended technical position and the ever-present cyclical risks of the energy sector. Investors should be prepared for volatility.
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CTRA 12-Month Price Forecast
The fundamental case for CTRA is strong, supported by excellent profitability and cash flow. The bullish stance is based on these durable strengths, but confidence is only medium due to the stock's proximity to its 52-week high and the unpredictable nature of its primary commodity markets.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coterra Energy Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $45.68 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$45.68
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$28 - $46
Analyst target range
Wall Street sentiment appears positive, as reflected in recent institutional ratings. Key firms including Barclays, Piper Sandler, UBS, and Mizuho have maintained 'Overweight', 'Buy', or 'Outperform' ratings on the stock in March 2026. However, specific consensus target price data and ratings distribution are not provided in the analyst data, which only includes estimates for future EPS and revenue. Therefore, a quantified summary of analyst consensus (e.g., average price target) is not available.
Bulls vs Bears: CTRA Investment Factors
Coterra Energy presents a compelling mix of strong fundamentals, reasonable valuation, and positive momentum. However, its fortunes are tied to volatile commodity prices, and the stock trades near a key technical resistance level, introducing near-term risk.
Bullish
- Strong Financial Performance: Q4 revenue grew 23.8% YoY. High net margin of 62.4% and robust free cash flow.
- Attractive Valuation: Trailing P/E of 11.7 and forward P/E of 12.4 are reasonable. EV/EBITDA of 4.9 is moderate.
- Positive Analyst Sentiment: Multiple firms maintain Buy/Overweight ratings. Estimated EPS growth is positive.
- Strong Price Momentum: Stock up 49.9% in 6 months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.
Bearish
- Commodity Price Sensitivity: Earnings are highly exposed to volatile oil and natural gas prices.
- Valuation Multiples Elevated: Price-to-Sales ratio of 7.3 is high for an energy producer.
- Technical Resistance: Price is near 52-week high of $36.88, which may act as a ceiling.
- Industry Cyclicality: Energy sector is cyclical and sensitive to macroeconomic slowdowns.
CTRA Technical Analysis
The stock has demonstrated a strong and sustained uptrend over the past six months, with the price rising from approximately $23.96 in early October 2025 to $35.91 as of March 30, 2026, representing a 49.9% gain. This performance significantly outpaces the broader market, as evidenced by a 6-month relative strength of +55.4 against the S&P 500. Short-term momentum is also robust, with the stock up 17.4% over the past month and 35.2% over the past three months, again strongly outperforming the market indices. The current price of $35.91 is near the upper end of its 52-week range of $22.33 to $36.88, trading just 2.6% below the yearly high. This positioning indicates strong bullish sentiment and suggests the stock is testing a key resistance level.
Beta
0.35
0.35x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$22-$37
Price range past year
Annual Return
+21.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CTRA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +14.9% | -5.3% |
| 3m | +33.5% | -4.6% |
| 6m | +51.8% | -2.8% |
| 1y | +21.6% | +15.9% |
| ytd | +32.1% | -4.6% |
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CTRA Fundamental Analysis
Revenue for Q4 2025 was $1.79 billion, showing a significant 23.8% year-over-year growth compared to Q4 2024. Profitability metrics are solid, with a trailing net margin of 62.4% and an operating margin of 89.1%, indicating highly efficient operations. The company maintains a conservative financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27 and a current ratio of 1.19, reflecting a manageable debt load and adequate short-term liquidity. Furthermore, the company generated substantial free cash flow of $1.63 billion over the trailing twelve months, supporting shareholder returns and reinvestment. Operational efficiency is highlighted by a Return on Equity (ROE) of 11.6% and a Return on Assets (ROA) of 6.7%, demonstrating effective use of capital and assets to generate profits.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.8B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.23%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.31%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CTRA Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. Coterra trades at a trailing P/E of approximately 11.7 and a forward P/E of 12.4, which suggests a reasonable valuation relative to its earnings. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is 7.3, and the Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) is 4.9, both indicating the market is valuing the company's sales and cash flow generation at a moderate multiple. Data for a direct peer comparison with industry averages is not available in the provided inputs.
PE
11.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~57x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
The primary risk for CTRA is its inherent exposure to volatile oil and natural gas prices, which directly drive revenue and profitability. A significant downturn in commodity prices could pressure its high margins and substantial free cash flow generation. The company's valuation, while reasonable on a P/E basis, shows a high Price-to-Sales multiple of 7.3, suggesting expectations for sustained high profitability are already priced in. Furthermore, the stock's technical position is extended, trading just 2.6% below its 52-week high after a nearly 50% six-month rally, increasing vulnerability to a pullback or profit-taking. While the balance sheet is strong, the pending merger with Devon Energy, as highlighted in recent news, introduces integration and execution risks that could distract management or fail to deliver projected synergies.
FAQ
The key risks are commodity price volatility, as oil and gas prices directly drive earnings; valuation risk from its high P/S ratio and position near 52-week highs; and execution risk related to its pending merger with Devon Energy. Additionally, as a cyclical energy stock, it is vulnerable to economic downturns that reduce energy demand.
The 12-month outlook presents a base case target range of $33-$37, assuming the company meets analyst EPS estimates of ~$3.46 and maintains its current valuation multiples. A bull case ($38-$42) depends on higher commodity prices and successful merger synergies, while a bear case ($26-$30) would be triggered by an energy price crash or market correction. The AI assessment assigns a 50% probability to the base case.
CTRA's valuation is reasonable but not deeply undervalued. Its trailing P/E of 11.7 and forward P/E of 12.4 are modest for a company with its high profitability, suggesting the market is not overpaying for earnings. However, the Price-to-Sales ratio of 7.3 is elevated, indicating expectations for sustained high margins are baked in. Overall, it is fairly valued relative to its earnings power.
Based on the data, CTRA is a good stock for investors seeking exposure to the energy sector. The company exhibits strong fundamentals, including 23.8% YoY revenue growth, a 62.4% net margin, and $1.63B in trailing free cash flow. However, its recent 50% price surge over six months means it is no longer a bargain, and buying at current levels carries near-term technical risk. A phased entry on weakness would be prudent.
CTRA is more suitable for a long-term investment horizon. Its value proposition is based on durable assets, consistent cash generation, and shareholder returns, which play out over years. The stock's low beta of 0.35 suggests lower volatility versus the market, supporting a buy-and-hold strategy. Short-term trading is challenged by commodity price unpredictability and the stock's extended technical position after a major rally.