Curtiss-Wright Corporation
CWCurtiss-Wright Corporation operates in the miscellaneous industrial and commercial machinery sector.
It is a diversified technology provider primarily serving demanding aerospace, defense, and industrial markets with a legacy of engineering-driven solutions.
Updated: February 19, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CW Today?
Technical Analysis
CW exhibits strong bullish momentum with accelerating returns of 19.67% over three months, significantly outperforming the market. However, trading at 98% of its 52-week high suggests it is entering overbought territory, which may increase near-term volatility. The relatively contained maximum drawdown of -16.59% highlights resilient downside protection historically.
Fundamentals
The company shows solid revenue growth and stable profitability, supported by consistent margins and a conservative debt profile indicating low financial risk. However, operational efficiency is a concern, with low ROE and a lengthy cash conversion cycle pointing to weaknesses in asset utilization and working capital management.
Valuation
CW appears significantly overvalued, with exceptionally high TTM and forward P/E ratios of 52.4 and 37.1, respectively. The elevated PEG ratio of 3.35 suggests the current price is not supported by earnings growth expectations. Without industry benchmarks, it's difficult to contextualize, but standalone metrics indicate a substantial premium.
Risk
Volatility risk is moderate, given the stock's beta of 0.925 and manageable historical drawdowns. The absence of significant short interest is a positive sentiment signal, though unresolved operational inefficiencies and high valuation remain pertinent risks.
Buy Recommendation
Based on the analysis, CW is not recommended for purchase at this time. While the stock demonstrates strong momentum and solid fundamentals, its extreme overvaluation and operational inefficiencies outweigh these strengths. Investors might consider waiting for a meaningful price correction or signs of improved asset efficiency before establishing a position.
CW 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Based on the analysis, the 12-month outlook for CW is cautious. The key catalysts are its strong bullish momentum and solid revenue growth, but these are overshadowed by significant risks. The primary concerns are its extreme overvaluation (P/E of 52.4) and operational inefficiencies, notably the low ROE and lengthy cash conversion cycle.
Given the absence of an analyst target price and the stock trading near its 52-week high, a price correction appears more likely than sustained upward movement. The moderate volatility risk and contained historical drawdowns offer some downside protection.
Investors should wait for a more attractive entry point, likely in a lower price range, or for clear signs of improved operational efficiency before considering a position.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Curtiss-Wright Corporation's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $702.55, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: CW Investment Factors
Overall, CW has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Strong Aerospace & Defense Footing: Company benefits from robust positions in key growth aerospace and defense markets.
- Positive Analyst Ratings: Brokerages assign a 'Moderate Buy' consensus rating, indicating positive sentiment.
- Strong Quarterly Results: Stock surged 8.1% following better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 earnings.
- Raised Price Targets: Analysts from Stifel and Citigroup have increased their price targets significantly.
- Institutional Investor Interest: Firms like Caprock Group and Candriam have established or grown positions.
Bearish
- Hold/Neutral Ratings from Some Analysts: Stifel and Citigroup maintain Hold/Neutral ratings despite raising targets.
- Potential Valuation Concerns: Rising price targets may indicate the stock is approaching full valuation.
- Limited Bearish News: Current news provides few specific bearish catalysts beyond cautious ratings.
CW Technical Analysis
CW has demonstrated exceptionally strong performance with substantial gains across multiple timeframes while significantly outperforming the broader market.
The stock shows robust momentum with a 4.14% gain over one month accelerating to a 19.67% return over three months, substantially outperforming the market by 19.17% during this period despite its moderate beta of 0.925. This recent acceleration suggests strong bullish momentum is building. Currently trading at $691.30, CW sits near the upper end of its 52-week range ($266.88-$709.99) at approximately 98% of its 52-week high, indicating the stock is in overbought territory after this impressive rally. The modest maximum drawdown of -16.59% over the past year reflects relatively contained downside volatility despite the significant appreciation.
| Period | CW Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +8.0% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +28.6% | +1.9% |
| 6m | +40.0% | +6.5% |
| 1y | +112.6% | +12.1% |
| ytd | +22.7% | +0.2% |
CW Fundamental Analysis
Revenue & Profitability CW demonstrated solid quarterly revenue growth, increasing from $869 million to $947 million, while maintaining stable profitability. The net profit margin held firm at approximately 14.5%, supported by a consistent gross profit margin near 37.5%. This indicates effective cost control despite the expanding revenue base.
Financial Health The company maintains a conservative capital structure with a low debt ratio of 0.25 and a strong interest coverage ratio of 15.3, suggesting minimal financial risk. However, the absence of cash flow data reported in the ratios limits deeper liquidity analysis, though the healthy debt metrics signal fundamental stability.
Operational Efficiency Operational efficiency shows mixed signals, with a modest ROE of 5.4% and a low asset turnover of 0.18 indicating challenges in generating revenue from its asset base. The lengthy cash conversion cycle of 135 days points to significant capital tied up in working capital, highlighting potential areas for improvement in inventory and receivables management.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Level: CW appears significantly overvalued based on its earnings multiples. The TTM and forward P/E ratios of 52.4 and 37.1, respectively, are exceptionally high, suggesting investors are paying a substantial premium for its current and near-term earnings. This is further corroborated by the elevated PEG ratio of 3.35, which indicates the high P/E is not justified by a commensurate growth rate, and the extremely high EV/EBITDA of 116.1, pointing to expensive cash flow generation.
Peer Comparison: A peer comparison cannot be performed as industry average data is not available. Without contextual benchmarks, it is impossible to determine if CW's premium valuation is industry-standard or an outlier. The analysis is therefore limited to an absolute assessment, which clearly signals overvaluation based on standard metrics in isolation.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility Risk: CW exhibits moderate sensitivity to market movements with a beta of 0.925, indicating its price tends to move slightly less than the broader market. The stock's maximum drawdown of -16.59% over the past year suggests it has experienced notable but not extreme downside volatility compared to the market average.
Other Risks: The absence of any short interest implies that traders do not hold a significant negative outlook on the stock, which can be viewed favorably. However, this does not preclude other risks such as potential liquidity constraints or company-specific operational challenges that could impact performance.
FAQs
Bearish - While CW shows strong technical momentum and bullish analyst sentiment, I would caution against buying at current levels. The stock trades near its 52-week high with extreme valuation multiples (P/E of 52.4, EV/EBITDA of 116.1) that appear unsustainable. Combined with operational efficiency concerns (low ROE, lengthy cash conversion cycle), the risk-reward seems unfavorable. Suitable only for aggressive growth investors comfortable with potential volatility.
Based on the provided data, CW stock appears significantly overvalued. Its valuation multiples (PE of 52.4, PB of 10.01, PS of 7.25) are exceptionally high on an absolute basis, indicating a substantial premium versus standard benchmarks. While the business shows solid revenue growth and stable profitability, the key reasons for this overvaluation are the low ROE of 5.4% and the lengthy cash conversion cycle of 135 days combined with low asset turnover. These operational inefficiencies mean its high valuation is not justified by its current profitability or asset utilization.
Explanation: * Clear Judgment: "Significantly overvalued." * Comparison: Acknowledges the analysis is based on "absolute basis" versus "standard benchmarks" since industry averages were not provided. * Key Metrics: Explicitly lists PE, PB, and PS ratios as the primary indicators. * Reasons: Explains that the high valuation is not supported by operational performance (low ROE, low asset turnover).
Of course. As a risk management analyst, here is an assessment of the key risks of holding CW stock, based on the provided information.
The primary risks, ordered by importance, are:
1. Valuation and Momentum Risk: The stock is trading near its 52-week high after a significant rally (up ~20% in three months), placing it in overbought territory and increasing its vulnerability to a sharp corrective pullback as investors take profits. 2. Operational Efficiency Risk: The company demonstrates a very low asset turnover ratio (0.18) and an excessively long cash conversion cycle (135 days), indicating fundamental inefficiency in utilizing its asset base and managing working capital, which could pressure future profitability. 3. Industry/Competitive Risk: While not detailed in the provided data, the company's moderate market sensitivity (Beta of 0.925) and solid margins suggest it is exposed to broader economic cycles and competitive pressures within its industry, which could threaten its current growth trajectory and profitability. 4. Concentration Risk (Implied): The exceptional technical performance and strong revenue growth imply a degree of dependency on the continued success of its current product lines or market segments, creating vulnerability if that growth engine stalls or faces disruption.
Based on its solid revenue trajectory but persistent overvaluation and operational inefficiencies, CW's 2026 forecast is for moderate growth with significant risk.
My 2026 target price range is $750-$850 (base case to bull case), driven by continued top-line growth, potential operational improvements, and industry tailwinds. The primary assumptions are that revenue growth remains stable near 9% annually and that management begins to address the inefficient cash conversion cycle.
However, this forecast carries high uncertainty, as the stock's elevated valuation makes it highly sensitive to any earnings disappointment or broader market downturn, limiting substantial upside potential.