CW

Curtiss-Wright

$750.19

+0.02%
Jul 24, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Curtiss-Wright Corp. delivers engineered products and services to commercial, defense, power generation, and other industrial markets, operating through three segments: Naval & Power, Aerospace & Industrial, and Defense Electronics. As a niche industrial technology provider with a strong focus on naval propulsion and power systems, the company holds a distinct competitive position in mission-critical applications for defense and energy end markets. The current investor narrative centers on sustained defense spending tailwinds, particularly in naval modernization, and the company's ability to expand margins through operational efficiency and mix shift toward higher-value programs. Recent quarterly results have shown accelerating revenue growth and robust free cash flow generation, reinforcing confidence in the company's execution and long-term outlook.

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CW 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $750.19
Average Target $750.19
High Target $862.72
Low Target $637.66

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Curtiss-Wright's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $822.17 and implied upside of +9.6% versus the current price.

Average Target

$822.17

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+9.6%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$768 - $870

Analyst target range

Curtiss-Wright is covered by 6 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of Buy (mean rating 1.71 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $814.83, implying approximately 15.1% upside from the current price of $707.84. The distribution shows no Sell ratings, with the majority at Buy or Hold, indicating a broadly bullish sentiment. The consensus reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory and margin expansion, supported by strong defense spending and operational execution. The target price range spans from $724.00 (low) to $870.00 (high), representing a spread of $146.00 or 20.6% of the average target. The high target of $870.00 assumes continued revenue acceleration, margin expansion, and potential multiple expansion, likely driven by sustained defense budget growth and successful execution in commercial aerospace. The low target of $724.00 factors in risks such as supply chain disruptions, defense budget uncertainty, or a slowdown in industrial demand. The wide spread indicates moderate uncertainty among analysts, but the absence of Sell ratings and the average target well above the current price suggest a favorable risk-reward profile. Recent ratings from Citigroup (Neutral) and Stifel (Hold) are more cautious, while Morgan Stanley (Overweight) is more bullish, reflecting a mix of views. Overall, the analyst consensus supports a positive outlook, but the wide range highlights the need for investors to monitor key catalysts and risks.

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Bulls vs Bears: CW Investment Factors

Curtiss-Wright presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and strong free cash flow, supported by defense spending tailwinds and operational execution. The analyst consensus is bullish, with a Buy rating and 15% upside to the average target. However, the stock trades at a premium valuation (42.6x trailing P/E) near its historical high, leaving limited room for error. The recent price pullback and weak short-term momentum add caution. The key tension is whether the company's growth trajectory can sustain the elevated multiple; if revenue growth decelerates or margins compress, the stock could face significant downside. Overall, the bull case has stronger evidence given the fundamental momentum, but valuation risk tempers enthusiasm.

Bullish

  • Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 13.4% YoY to $913.7M, up from 8.8% growth in Q1 2025, driven by strong defense and industrial demand. This acceleration signals broad-based momentum across Naval & Power and Aerospace & Industrial segments.
  • Expanding Profit Margins: Operating margin improved to 17.6% in Q1 2026 from 16.0% a year ago, while net margin rose to 14.0% from 12.6%. This operational leverage supports earnings growth and justifies a premium valuation.
  • Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $590.8M, yielding ~2.9% at current market cap. Robust cash generation provides flexibility for organic investments, acquisitions, and shareholder returns.
  • Analyst Consensus Buy with 15% Upside: The average analyst target of $814.83 implies 15.1% upside from $707.84, with no Sell ratings. The high target of $870 suggests potential for further gains if growth continues.

Bearish

  • Elevated Valuation Multiple: Trailing P/E of 42.6x is near the high end of its historical range (14.6x-49.1x) and at a 70% premium to the Aerospace & Defense industry average of ~25x. This leaves limited margin of safety if growth disappoints.
  • Recent Price Pullback and Weak Momentum: The stock has declined 8.9% in the past month and 3.8% in three months, underperforming the S&P 500 by 9.2% and 8.5% respectively. This could signal a loss of near-term bullish momentum.
  • Defense Budget Uncertainty: While defense spending is a tailwind, any future budget cuts or program delays could impact CW's Naval & Power segment, which is a key growth driver. Political shifts could alter spending priorities.
  • Limited Dividend Yield: The dividend yield is only 0.17%, offering minimal income for yield-focused investors. The low payout ratio (7.2%) suggests potential for increases, but current yield is unattractive relative to the broader market.

CW Technical Analysis

Curtiss-Wright is in a sustained uptrend over the long term, with a 1-year price change of +46.2%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.4% gain. The current price of $707.84 sits at 87.6% of its 52-week range ($463.00 low to $808.16 high), indicating the stock is still in the upper half of its range but has pulled back from the highs. This positioning suggests the stock retains bullish momentum but is not overextended, offering a potential entry point for investors who missed the earlier rally. Short-term momentum has weakened considerably, with the 1-month price change at -8.9% and the 3-month change at -3.8%, diverging sharply from the strong 1-year trend. This divergence could signal a mean-reversion pullback within a broader uptrend, especially as the stock has corrected from its 52-week high of $808.16 to current levels. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 over 1 month is -9.2%, confirming recent underperformance, but the 1-year relative strength remains strongly positive at +27.9%, suggesting the long-term trend is intact. Key support lies near the 52-week low of $463.00, though a more immediate floor may be around the $700 level, which aligns with the recent consolidation zone. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $808.16; a breakout above this level would signal a resumption of the uptrend and likely attract momentum buyers. The stock's beta of 0.86 indicates it is less volatile than the overall market, meaning the recent pullback is not driven by excessive risk but rather a normal correction within a strong trend. A breakdown below $700 could lead to a test of the $650 area, but given the low beta and solid fundamentals, such a move would likely be temporary.

Beta

0.86

0.86x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-13.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$465-$808

Price range past year

Annual Return

+56.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCW ReturnS&P 500
1m-1.7%+0.8%
3m+4.6%+3.5%
6m+15.6%+7.2%
1y+56.7%+16.5%
ytd+31.1%+8.4%

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CW Fundamental Analysis

Curtiss-Wright's revenue trajectory is accelerating, with Q1 2026 revenue of $913.7 million growing 13.4% year-over-year, up from 8.8% growth in Q1 2025. The trailing twelve-month revenue stands at approximately $3.61 billion, driven by strong performance in Naval Defense ($250.1 million in the latest quarter) and Power & Process ($167.1 million), which together represent 46% of total revenue. The Aerospace & Industrial segment also contributed, with Commercial Aerospace up 11% and Ground Defense up 8%, indicating broad-based demand. This growth acceleration supports the investment case that Curtiss-Wright is benefiting from increased defense spending and industrial activity. Profitability is robust and improving, with Q1 2026 net income of $128.2 million, up from $101.3 million in the prior-year quarter, representing a 26.6% increase. Gross margin expanded to 36.3% from 36.2% a year ago, while operating margin improved to 17.6% from 16.0%, reflecting operational leverage and a favorable product mix. The net margin of 14.0% is healthy for the Aerospace & Defense industry, which typically averages around 10-12%. The company is consistently profitable, with a trailing twelve-month net income of $511.1 million, and margins are trending upward, a positive sign for earnings growth. The balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52 and a current ratio of 1.44, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $590.8 million, translating to a free cash flow yield of approximately 2.9% based on the current market cap. The company generated $352.7 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025 alone, demonstrating strong cash generation capability. Return on equity stands at 19.1%, well above the industry average, highlighting efficient capital allocation. With a manageable debt load and strong cash flow, Curtiss-Wright is well-positioned to fund organic growth and potential acquisitions without relying on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$913687000.0B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

+13.4%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

36.3%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$590761000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Aerospace Defense
Commercial Aerospace
Ground Defense
Naval Defense
General Industrial
Power & Process

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Valuation Analysis: Is CW Overvalued?

Since Curtiss-Wright has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 42.6x, while the forward P/E is 41.4x, implying the market expects modest earnings growth over the next year. The small gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests that the current valuation already reflects near-term growth expectations, leaving limited room for upside from multiple expansion alone. Compared to the Aerospace & Defense industry average P/E of approximately 25x, Curtiss-Wright trades at a 70% premium, reflecting its superior growth profile, higher margins, and strong competitive position. The premium is justified by the company's consistent revenue growth, expanding margins, and robust free cash flow generation, which are above industry norms. However, the premium also implies that any disappointment in growth or margins could lead to multiple compression. Historically, Curtiss-Wright's trailing P/E has ranged from 14.6x (Q4 2022) to 49.1x (Q1 2026), with the current 42.6x near the high end of its historical band. This suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for future growth and profitability. While the company's fundamentals support a premium valuation, the current level leaves limited margin of safety, and investors should monitor execution closely to avoid downside risk from multiple contraction.

PE

42.6x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 15x~49x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

27.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: Curtiss-Wright's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52 is manageable, but the company carries $994M in interest expense annually, which could pressure earnings if rates rise. The net margin of 14.0% is healthy but could compress if input costs increase or mix shifts to lower-margin products. Revenue concentration in defense (Naval & Power segment) exposes the company to budget cycles; a 10% cut in defense spending could materially impact growth. Free cash flow of $590.8M is strong, but the high valuation (42.6x P/E) means any earnings miss could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.

Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 0.86 suggests lower market correlation, but the premium valuation makes it vulnerable to sector rotation away from growth. The industry average P/E of 25x implies CW trades at a 70% premium, which could compress if peers catch up or if defense spending slows. Competitive risks include technological disruption in naval propulsion or aerospace components, though CW's niche positioning provides some moat. Recent news is absent, but any negative headlines on defense budget negotiations or program cancellations could weigh on sentiment.

Worst-Case Scenario: A combination of defense budget cuts, supply chain disruptions, and a broader market downturn could drive the stock to its 52-week low of $463.00, representing a 34.6% decline from the current price of $707.84. In this scenario, revenue growth would decelerate below 5%, margins would compress, and the P/E multiple would contract to ~25x, in line with the industry average. Investors could lose up to 35% of their investment from current levels.