CWAN

Clearwater Analytics

$24.37

+0.12%
May 14, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. is a technology company providing a comprehensive SaaS platform for investment portfolio accounting, reporting, and analytics, primarily serving insurance companies, asset managers, hedge funds, and corporate treasuries. The company positions itself as a market leader and trusted technology platform for the entire investment cycle, having expanded from its back-office accounting roots into front and middle-office capabilities through strategic acquisitions. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on the company's integration of its recent major acquisition, Enfusion, which has broadened its service offerings but also introduced execution risk and integration costs, as evidenced by recent analyst downgrades and a shift in market sentiment from growth optimism to a more cautious 'show-me' story.

People also watch

Sarcos

Sarcos

STRC

Analysis
Applicad

Applicad

APP

Analysis
Uber

Uber

UBER

Analysis
Salesforce

Salesforce

CRM

Analysis
Intuit

Intuit

INTU

Analysis

CWAN 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $24.37
Average Target $24.37
High Target $28.025499999999997
Low Target $20.7145

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Clearwater Analytics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $31.68 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$31.68

2 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

2

covering this stock

Price Range

$20 - $32

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (50%)
Sell
1 (50%)

Analyst coverage for CWAN appears limited, with only two analysts providing estimates for future EPS and revenue, indicating insufficient broad institutional coverage to form a robust consensus. This limited coverage is typical for a mid-cap company undergoing significant transformation and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, as the stock price is less anchored by frequent institutional research updates. The available analyst estimates point to expectations of a significant turnaround in profitability, with an average EPS estimate of $1.21 for the forward period, contrasting sharply with the recent quarterly losses. The estimated revenue average is $1.54 billion, suggesting continued top-line expansion. The pattern in institutional ratings is notably bearish, with a clear trend of downgrades throughout early 2026 from firms including Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo, and Piper Sandler, moving from Buy/Overweight to Neutral/Equal Weight or Hold ratings. This unified downward shift in sentiment reflects heightened caution regarding the acquisition integration and near-term financial performance, overriding any potential upside from the long-term strategic rationale.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

Bulls vs Bears: CWAN Investment Factors

The evidence currently tilts bearish in the near term, as deteriorating price momentum, persistent unprofitability, and a wave of analyst downgrades outweigh the bullish case built on strong revenue growth and cash flow. The most critical tension in the investment debate is the timeline and success of the Enfusion integration. Bulls argue the compressed valuation and strong FCF provide a margin of safety for a eventual return to profitable growth, while bears see the high sales multiple and recent underperformance as a warning that integration costs and execution risks will continue to suppress shareholder returns. The resolution of this integration story—specifically, the return to consistent net profitability—will be the primary driver of the stock's next major move.

Bullish

  • Strong Revenue Growth & SaaS Model: Q4 2025 revenue grew 71.95% YoY to $217.5M, driven by the Enfusion acquisition, establishing a larger, more comprehensive platform. The SaaS model is evidenced by a robust and stable gross margin of 67.24%, providing a high-quality revenue base for future profitability.
  • Robust Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $164.3M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, demonstrating strong underlying cash conversion despite net losses. This provides financial flexibility to fund integration costs and growth initiatives without excessive reliance on external capital.
  • Valuation Compression from Historical Highs: The current Price-to-Sales ratio of 8.95x is a dramatic compression from historical multiples that frequently exceeded 30x. Trading near the lower end of its own historical valuation band presents a potential re-rating opportunity if execution improves.
  • Analyst EPS Forecast Implies Profit Turnaround: Despite recent quarterly losses, the average analyst EPS estimate for the forward period is $1.21, projecting a significant swing to profitability. This expectation, coupled with an estimated revenue average of $1.54B, suggests confidence in the long-term business model post-integration.

Bearish

  • Severe Loss of Momentum & Underperformance: The stock has drastically underperformed the market recently, with a 1-month relative strength of -8.21 versus the SPY. Its 3-month price change of +0.50% lags the SPY's +4.14%, signaling a loss of investor confidence and potential trend reversal.
  • Persistent Unprofitability & Margin Pressure: The company reported a Q4 2025 net loss of $11.8M, a net margin of -5.41%, and a low operating margin of 3.84%. Quarterly net income has been volatile and negative for three of the last four quarters, indicating integration is materially pressuring the bottom line.
  • Elevated Valuation Despite No Earnings: With a negative P/E and an EV-to-Sales of 10.80x, the stock carries a significant premium for future execution. This high sales multiple for a company with negative net margins leaves it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth decelerates or profitability timelines slip.
  • Unified Analyst Downgrades & Limited Coverage: Multiple major firms (Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo, Piper Sandler) downgraded CWAN to Neutral/Hold in early 2026, reflecting a cautious 'show-me' stance. Furthermore, only two analysts provide estimates, indicating limited institutional follow-through and higher volatility risk.

CWAN Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the longer term, with a 1-year price change of +5.67% and a more pronounced 6-month gain of +31.50%. As of the latest close at $24.21, the stock is trading at approximately 96.6% of its 52-week high of $25.07, indicating it is near the top of its annual range, which suggests strong momentum but also potential overextension and vulnerability to a pullback. Recent short-term momentum, however, shows significant deceleration and underperformance; the 1-month price change is a modest +1.77%, and the 3-month change is a minimal +0.50%, starkly underperforming the SPY's respective gains of +9.98% and +4.14% over the same periods. This divergence, highlighted by a 1-month relative strength of -8.21, signals a loss of momentum and could indicate a consolidation phase or profit-taking after the strong prior run-up, potentially preceding a trend reversal if broader market weakness persists. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $25.07 and support at the 52-week low of $15.74. A decisive breakout above $25.07 would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a breakdown below the recent consolidation range near $23 could see the stock test lower support levels. The stock exhibits below-market volatility with a beta of 0.64, meaning it is approximately 36% less volatile than the broader market; this low beta is noteworthy given the stock's significant 41.21% maximum drawdown, indicating that while its day-to-day moves are muted, it has experienced sharp, isolated declines, which is critical for risk-aware investors sizing their positions.

Beta

0.60

0.60x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-35.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$16-$25

Price range past year

Annual Return

+1.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCWAN ReturnS&P 500
1m+1.3%+7.7%
3m+5.3%+9.7%
6m+26.6%+11.3%
1y+1.2%+27.3%
ytd+1.1%+9.7%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

CWAN Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is robust but shows signs of sequential deceleration; Q4 2025 revenue was $217.5 million, representing a strong 71.95% year-over-year growth, largely attributable to the Enfusion acquisition. However, examining the quarterly progression within 2025 reveals a slowdown: revenue grew from $126.9M in Q1 to $217.5M in Q4, but the quarter-over-quarter growth rate from Q3 ($205.1M) to Q4 was only 6.0%, suggesting the explosive acquisition-fueled growth is normalizing and organic growth trends will become more critical to monitor going forward. The company is currently unprofitable on a net income basis, with a Q4 2025 net loss of $11.8 million, translating to a net margin of -5.41%. Gross margins remain healthy and stable at 67.24% in Q4, consistent with a software business model, but operating profitability is pressured, with an operating margin of just 3.84% in the latest quarter. The path to profitability is uneven, as evidenced by fluctuating quarterly net income from a profit of $6.5M in Q1 2025 to the subsequent losses, indicating integration costs and acquisition-related expenses are materially impacting the bottom line. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44, and liquidity is solid with a current ratio of 1.83. A key strength is the company's cash generation; it produced $164.3 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, yielding a strong FCF margin on revenue. This robust cash flow, coupled with an ROE of -0.019, suggests the company is funding its growth and acquisitions internally but is not yet efficiently translating its asset base into shareholder profits, highlighting the integration phase's drag on returns.

Quarterly Revenue

$217457000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.71%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.67%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$164287000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Reportable Segment

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is CWAN Overvalued?

Given the company's negative trailing net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is elevated at 8.95x, while the forward-looking metric, EV-to-Sales, is even higher at 10.80x. The gap between these sales multiples indicates the market is pricing in expectations for continued, albeit potentially slower, revenue growth following the major acquisition. Comparing to industry averages is challenging due to missing specific sector data, but the stock's valuation can be contextualized by its own profitability profile. An EV-to-Sales of 10.8x for a company with a -5.3% net margin and 3.8% operating margin is a significant premium, implying investors are paying for future margin expansion and platform synergies post-integration, rather than current earnings power. Historically, the current PS ratio of 8.95x sits well below its own extreme historical ranges observed over the past several years, where it frequently traded above 30x and even 70x sales. This dramatic compression from historical highs suggests the market has significantly recalibrated expectations, moving from a hyper-growth, premium multiple story to a more value-conscious, execution-focused narrative. Trading near the lower end of its own historical valuation band presents a potential value opportunity if the company can successfully execute its integration and return to profitable growth.

PE

-168.6x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -5199x~10108x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

64.6x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: The primary risk is the company's inability to translate robust revenue growth into sustainable profitability. With a Q4 net margin of -5.41% and volatile quarterly earnings swinging from a $6.5M profit to an $11.8M loss, the path to consistent net income is unclear and heavily dependent on successful cost integration from the Enfusion acquisition. Revenue concentration risk is also present, with 76% of pro forma revenue generated in the US, exposing the company to regional economic cycles. While free cash flow is strong at $164M TTM, the negative ROE of -0.019 indicates capital is not being efficiently deployed for shareholder returns during this transformative phase.

Market & Competitive Risks: The stock faces significant valuation compression risk. Trading at an EV/Sales of 10.8x with negative earnings makes it highly sensitive to any disappointment in growth or margin expansion. The low beta of 0.64 masks its potential for sharp drawdowns, as evidenced by a 41.21% maximum drawdown. Competitive risks are heightened as the company expands from its back-office accounting niche into front and middle-office capabilities, potentially facing more established and well-funded SaaS competitors. The recent unified analyst downgrades have shifted market sentiment from growth optimism to caution, increasing the stock's vulnerability to negative news flow.

Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a failure to realize expected synergies from the Enfusion acquisition, leading to sustained net losses, a deceleration in organic revenue growth below 10%, and a consequent derating of its sales multiple. A chain of disappointing quarterly earnings could trigger further analyst downgrades and a loss of institutional interest, given the already limited coverage. This could see the stock re-test its 52-week low of $15.74, representing a downside of approximately -35% from the current price of $24.21. The combination of operational missteps and a broader market downturn for unprofitable growth stocks could amplify losses beyond this level.