DPZ

Domino's Pizza

$300.88

-0.49%
Jul 9, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Domino's Pizza Inc. is the world's largest pizza chain, operating over 22,100 stores across more than 90 markets through a 99% franchised model, with revenue primarily generated from its vertically integrated supply chain and franchise royalties. As a dominant player in the quick-service restaurant industry, Domino's distinct competitive advantage lies in its scale, technology-driven ordering platform, and efficient delivery network. The current investor narrative is dominated by a sharp stock decline following a surprise CEO transition, disappointing Q1 2026 sales and earnings, and Berkshire Hathaway's decision to exit its position, raising concerns about near-term growth and leadership stability.

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DPZ 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $300.88
Average Target $300.88
High Target $346.01
Low Target $255.75

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Domino's Pizza's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $391.14 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$391.14

10 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

10

covering this stock

Price Range

$241 - $391

Analyst target range

Buy
3 (30%)
Hold
5 (50%)
Sell
2 (20%)

The stock is covered by 10 analysts, with a consensus leaning neutral-to-bullish: 2 Buy, 4 Hold, and 4 Neutral/Sector Perform ratings. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS of $27.78 for the current fiscal year and a forward P/E of 14.9x, the implied target is approximately $414, representing 33% upside from the current price of $311.66. The high EPS estimate of $28.76 implies a target of $429, while the low estimate of $26.96 implies a target of $402. The spread between high and low targets is relatively narrow at 6.7%, indicating moderate conviction. Recent analyst actions show no major upgrades or downgrades, with firms like JP Morgan upgrading to Overweight in February 2026, while Guggenheim remains Neutral. The lack of strong bullish consensus suggests uncertainty around the CEO transition and sales trajectory, but the implied upside from current levels indicates analysts see value at these depressed prices.

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DPZ Technical Analysis

Domino's stock is in a sustained downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -31.3% and the current price of $311.66 trading at just 63% of its 52-week range (52-week low $282, high $496). This positioning near the lower end of the range suggests bearish momentum and potential value trap risks, as the stock has failed to hold above key moving averages. The 1-month price change of +1.3% offers a slight reprieve, but the 3-month decline of -16.0% and 6-month drop of -26.7% confirm persistent selling pressure. The divergence between the 1-month uptick and the longer-term downtrend could indicate a short-term bounce within a larger bearish pattern, but the relative strength versus the S&P 500 (1-year relative strength of -50.4%) underscores severe underperformance. The 52-week low of $282 provides critical support; a breakdown below this level would signal further downside, while resistance at the 52-week high of $496 represents a 59% rally from current levels. Beta of 0.98 indicates volatility roughly in line with the market, but the stock's high short ratio of 5.87 suggests elevated bearish sentiment and potential for short squeezes.

Beta

0.97

0.97x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-41.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$282-$496

Price range past year

Annual Return

-35.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodDPZ ReturnS&P 500
1m-5.3%+2.0%
3m-17.8%+10.6%
6m-25.7%+8.3%
1y-35.1%+20.4%
ytd-29.3%+10.2%

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DPZ Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has decelerated, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.536 billion representing 6.4% YoY growth, down from the 8.4% growth seen in Q4 2024. The trailing twelve-month revenue trend shows sequential deceleration from Q1 2025's $1.112 billion to Q4 2025's $1.536 billion, but the growth rate is slowing as consumer spending weakens. The supply chain segment (60% of revenue) remains the primary growth driver, but international franchise growth has moderated. Net income for Q4 2025 was $181.6 million, with a net margin of 11.8%, slightly above the prior year's 11.7%. Gross margin improved to 39.7% from 39.2% in Q4 2024, while operating margin held steady at 19.3%, indicating stable cost management despite inflationary pressures. The company remains profitable with a trailing P/E of 23.8x, but the negative ROE of -15.4% reflects a leveraged balance sheet with negative equity. Free cash flow for Q4 2025 was $175.9 million, bringing TTM FCF to $671.5 million, which supports the dividend (yield 1.65%) and share buybacks. However, the debt-to-equity ratio of -1.34 (negative equity) indicates high financial leverage, and the current ratio of 1.65 provides adequate liquidity. The company's ability to generate consistent FCF is a positive, but the debt burden remains a risk if earnings deteriorate.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.5B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+6.36%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

39.69%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$671504000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

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Valuation Analysis: Is DPZ Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the trailing P/E ratio of 23.8x is the primary valuation metric. The forward P/E of 14.9x implies a significant earnings growth expectation, with the gap suggesting the market anticipates a sharp earnings rebound. Compared to the restaurant industry average P/E of approximately 22x, Domino's trailing multiple is at a slight premium, but the forward multiple is at a discount, reflecting skepticism about near-term earnings. The PEG ratio of 4.6x indicates the stock is expensive relative to its growth rate, suggesting limited upside from current levels. Historically, the trailing P/E has ranged from 19.4x (Q4 2022) to 39.5x (Q1 2022), and the current 23.8x is near the lower end of that range, implying the stock is relatively cheap by its own historical standards. However, the low P/E reflects the recent earnings decline and negative sentiment, rather than a compelling value opportunity. The price-to-sales ratio of 2.9x is below the 5-year average of ~4.5x, further indicating a de-rating.

PE

23.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 19x~39x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

18.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple