Duke Energy
DUK
$119.42
+0.04%
Duke Energy Corporation is a leading US utility holding company that provides regulated electric and natural gas services to over 8 million electric and 1.6 million gas customers across the Carolinas, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and Kentucky. As one of the largest utilities in the nation, Duke Energy operates primarily in the regulated electric industry, with a market cap exceeding $90 billion, positioning it as a cornerstone of the sector. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to balance its substantial capital expenditure program for grid modernization and clean energy transition with steady earnings growth, while navigating regulatory scrutiny and rising interest rates that have pressured utility valuations. Recent analyst actions have been predominantly positive, with firms like Barclays and Mizuho reiterating Overweight ratings, though the stock has underperformed the broader market over the past year, reflecting sector-wide headwinds.…
DUK
Duke Energy
$119.42
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy DUK Today?
Rating: Buy. Duke Energy offers a compelling risk/reward with a 14.2% upside to the average analyst target of $137.28, supported by a consensus 'buy' rating. The company's revenue growth of 11.26% YoY and solid net margin of 16.89% provide a strong foundation for earnings growth. Additionally, the 3.62% dividend yield provides income while waiting for price appreciation.
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DUK 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish on Duke Energy over the next 12 months, driven by its strong revenue growth, solid profitability, and attractive dividend. The stock's underperformance relative to the market has created a value opportunity, and analyst targets suggest significant upside. However, the medium confidence reflects uncertainties around interest rates and regulatory outcomes. If the company continues to execute and rates stabilize, the stock could re-rate higher. Key factors to watch include regulatory decisions and the trajectory of interest rates.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Duke Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $137.28 and implied upside of +14.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$137.28
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+14.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$129 - $147
Analyst target range
Duke Energy is covered by 18 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and a mean recommendation score of 2.09 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell), indicating a bullish sentiment. The average target price is $137.28, which implies an upside of approximately 14.2% from the current price of $120.22. The distribution of ratings is not explicitly provided, but the mean score suggests a majority of analysts are positive, with recent actions from firms like Barclays (Overweight), Mizuho (Outperform), and Truist Securities (Buy) reinforcing this view. The target price range spans from a low of $129.00 to a high of $147.00, with the low target still representing a 7.3% upside from the current price, indicating that even the most bearish analyst sees value. The high target of $147.00 implies a 22.3% upside, likely assuming successful execution of the capital plan and favorable regulatory outcomes. The relatively narrow spread between the low and high targets (about 14%) suggests a moderate level of conviction among analysts, though the recent downgrade by Evercore ISI from Outperform to In Line and JP Morgan's Neutral rating indicate some caution. Overall, the analyst community is optimistic about Duke Energy's prospects, with the consensus pointing to a potential recovery from current levels.
Bulls vs Bears: DUK Investment Factors
Duke Energy presents a mixed picture: strong operational performance with accelerating revenue and solid margins, but the stock has been punished by rising rates and sector rotation. The bear case is primarily valuation and debt concerns, while the bull case rests on growth, dividend, and analyst support. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull side given the 14% upside to average targets and the defensive nature of the business. The key tension is whether the company can continue its growth trajectory and achieve regulatory approvals to justify its premium valuation, or if rising rates and debt costs will erode earnings and keep the stock range-bound.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 11.26% YoY to $9.178B, driven by rate base expansion and customer growth. This is a robust acceleration from the prior year's quarters, indicating successful execution of its capital investment plan.
- Solid Profitability and Cash Flow: Net margin of 16.89% and operating margin of 29.69% in Q1 2026 are healthy for a utility. TTM free cash flow of $6.604B demonstrates strong cash generation, supporting the dividend and investment program.
- Attractive Dividend Yield: Dividend yield of 3.62% with a payout ratio of 66.43% is sustainable and provides a compelling income component. The company has a history of consistent dividend payments, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Analyst Consensus Buy: 18 analysts rate DUK a 'buy' with a mean score of 2.09. Average target price of $137.28 implies 14.2% upside, and even the low target of $129.00 offers 7.3% upside, indicating broad optimism.
Bearish
- Underperformance vs. Market: DUK has declined 0.54% over the past year while the S&P 500 gained 18.65%, resulting in a relative strength of -19.19%. This significant underperformance reflects sector headwinds and rising interest rates.
- High Debt Levels: Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.75 is elevated, and interest expenses of $968M in Q1 2026 weigh on earnings. Rising interest rates increase refinancing costs and could pressure future profitability.
- Negative Free Cash Flow in Q1: Q1 2026 free cash flow was -$2.576B due to heavy capex of $4.088B. While typical for utilities, sustained negative FCF could strain the balance sheet if not offset by regulatory rate relief.
- Valuation Premium to Sector: Trailing PE of 18.58 and PS of 2.83 are above typical utility valuations. The PEG of 1.77 suggests the stock is not cheap relative to its growth, limiting upside potential.
DUK Technical Analysis
Duke Energy's stock is currently in a clear downtrend, with the price at $120.22 as of September 4, 2026, having declined 0.54% over the past year. The stock is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, at approximately 89% of the range (calculated from a low of $113.90 and high of $134.49), indicating that it is closer to its annual low than its high. This positioning suggests that the market has been pricing in negative sentiment, potentially due to rising interest rates and regulatory concerns, but also raises the possibility of a value opportunity if fundamentals remain intact. The 6-month price change of -9.27% and a max drawdown of -11.65% further underscore the persistent downward pressure, with the stock failing to establish any sustained upside momentum.
Beta
0.36
0.36x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-11.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$114-$134
Price range past year
Annual Return
-2.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | DUK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -3.3% | -1.1% |
| 3m | -4.4% | +3.0% |
| 6m | -10.3% | +15.4% |
| 1y | -2.2% | +16.2% |
| ytd | +1.7% | +12.1% |
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DUK Fundamental Analysis
Duke Energy's revenue trajectory shows robust growth, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $9.178 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.26%. This growth is driven primarily by the Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment, which contributed $8.18 billion, while the Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment added $394 million, though the total reportable segments showed a negative $38 million adjustment. Over the past year, quarterly revenue has trended upward from $7.508 billion in Q2 2025 to $9.178 billion in Q1 2026, indicating accelerating growth, which is a positive signal for the investment case as it suggests strong demand and successful rate base expansion. The company's profitability is solid, with Q1 2026 net income of $1.55 billion and a net margin of 16.89%, which is healthy for the utility sector. Gross margin for the quarter was 67.92%, a significant improvement from the 30.49% reported in Q4 2025, though this volatility is likely due to seasonal and accounting factors. Operating margin stood at 29.69%, and the trailing twelve-month free cash flow was $6.604 billion, indicating strong cash generation, although the most recent quarter reported negative free cash flow of -$2.576 billion due to heavy capital expenditures of $4.088 billion, which is typical for utilities investing in infrastructure. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.75, which is high but not unusual for the capital-intensive utility industry, and the current ratio of 0.55 suggests potential liquidity concerns, though utilities often rely on steady cash flows and access to credit markets. ROE is 9.58%, and the company has a dividend yield of 3.62%, supported by a payout ratio of 66.43%, indicating a sustainable dividend.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
67.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$6.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is DUK Overvalued?
Given that Duke Energy is profitable, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE is 18.58, while the forward PE is 16.76, and the gap between these suggests that the market expects earnings growth, which is consistent with the company's revenue trajectory and analyst estimates. The PEG ratio of 1.77 indicates that the stock is not undervalued relative to its growth rate, but it is not excessively expensive either. Compared to the industry average, Duke Energy's valuation appears to be at a premium, as the utility sector typically trades at lower multiples; however, without specific industry averages provided, we can infer from the EV/EBITDA of 11.60 that it is in line with typical utility valuations. The PS ratio of 2.83 is also reasonable for a utility with stable revenues. Historically, Duke Energy's PE ratio has ranged from approximately 12.85 to 27.55 over the past few years, with the current trailing PE of 18.58 sitting near the middle of this range. This suggests that the stock is not at an extreme valuation, but rather fairly priced relative to its own history, indicating that the market is not pricing in overly optimistic or pessimistic expectations.
PE
18.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 13x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are significant due to Duke Energy's high debt load, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.75 and interest expenses of $968M in Q1 2026. The company's capital-intensive nature requires continuous access to credit markets, and rising interest rates increase refinancing costs, potentially pressuring earnings. Additionally, the negative free cash flow of -$2.576B in Q1 2026, driven by heavy capex, indicates reliance on external financing. While the dividend payout ratio of 66.43% is manageable, any prolonged cash flow shortfall could threaten dividend growth or force equity issuance, diluting shareholders.