Equifax
EFX
$170.45
-1.47%
Equifax is one of the three leading credit bureaus in the United States, providing credit reports and data analytics to lenders and consumers. The company differentiates itself through its Workforce Solutions segment, which accounts for about 40% of revenue and offers income verification and employer HR services. The current investor narrative centers on Equifax's ability to sustain revenue growth amid a challenging macroeconomic environment, with recent quarterly results showing a 14.35% YoY revenue increase, driven by strength in its US Consumer Information Solutions and Workforce segments. Debate remains around margin expansion potential and the impact of rising interest rates on mortgage-related demand.…
EFX
Equifax
$170.45
Related headlines
EFX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Equifax's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $211.24 and implied upside of +23.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$211.24
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+23.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$179 - $245
Analyst target range
Equifax is covered by 21 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.79 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $219.67, implying approximately 24.0% upside from the current price of $177.08. The distribution shows a bullish lean, with recent ratings from UBS, Needham, Mizuho, Wells Fargo, and B of A Securities all maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings. The target price range spans from a low of $173.00 to a high of $265.00. The high target of $265.00 assumes a full recovery to near the 52-week high, likely driven by sustained revenue growth and margin expansion. The low target of $173.00 is just below the current price, suggesting some analysts see limited downside but also limited near-term catalysts. The spread between low and high is $92.00, or 52% of the current price, indicating high uncertainty about the stock's future trajectory. The recent pattern of reaffirmed Buy ratings suggests analysts remain confident in Equifax's long-term prospects despite the recent price decline.
Bulls vs Bears: EFX Investment Factors
Equifax presents a mixed picture: strong revenue acceleration (14.35% YoY) and robust free cash flow ($1.139B TTM) support the bull case, while the stock's 32% annual decline and high trailing P/E (40.5x) raise caution. The bull case currently has stronger evidence given the forward P/E compression to 17.2x and analyst consensus target implying 24% upside. The central tension is whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory and expand margins to justify the current valuation, or if macro headwinds and competitive pressures will continue to weigh on the stock.
Bullish
- Revenue Growth Accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue grew 14.35% YoY to $1.649B, accelerating from 8.0% in Q1 2025 and 9.2% in Q4 2025, driven by Workforce Solutions and US Consumer Information Solutions.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $1.139B, yielding ~4.3% at current market cap, supporting dividends and $260M in Q1 buybacks.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with Upside: 21 analysts rate EFX a Buy with mean target $219.67, implying 24.0% upside from $177.08. High target of $265 suggests 49.6% potential return.
- Forward P/E Near Historical Lows: Forward P/E of 17.2x is near the bottom of its 5-year range (28x-73x trailing), suggesting the market is pricing in a recovery that may be achievable.
Bearish
- Stock in Sustained Downtrend: EFX declined 32.26% over the past year vs. S&P 500 +18.35%, and is trading at only 17.5% of its 52-week range, reflecting persistent selling pressure.
- High Trailing P/E of 40.5x: Trailing P/E of 40.5x is elevated vs. industry average, implying the market expects significant earnings growth that may not materialize if margins compress.
- Margin Compression Risk: Operating margin declined from 20.2% in Q2 2025 to 17.4% in Q1 2026, and net margin fell from 12.4% to 10.4% YoY, indicating rising costs.
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Debt-to-equity of 1.11 and current ratio of 0.60 indicate elevated leverage, making the company sensitive to rising interest rates and economic downturns.
EFX Technical Analysis
Equifax is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock price declining 32.26% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 18.35% gain. The current price of $177.08 sits at 17.5% of its 52-week range (low $150.75, high $271.84), indicating it is trading near the bottom of its range. This positioning suggests the stock is deeply oversold and potentially offering a value opportunity, but also reflects persistent selling pressure and negative sentiment. Short-term momentum has improved markedly, with the 1-month price change of +14.36% contrasting sharply with the 3-month change of -9.75% and the 1-year decline. This divergence could signal a potential trend reversal or a temporary relief rally, especially given the relative strength versus the S&P 500 of +14.05% over the past month. The stock's beta of 1.316 indicates it is 31.6% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $150.75; a breakdown below this level would signal further downside risk. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $271.84, and a breakout above that would indicate a major trend reversal. The current price is well below both levels, suggesting a prolonged recovery may be needed.
Beta
1.32
1.32x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$151-$272
Price range past year
Annual Return
-28.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EFX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +11.0% | +0.4% |
| 3m | -2.6% | +5.5% |
| 6m | -18.7% | +8.4% |
| 1y | -28.5% | +18.9% |
| ytd | -20.4% | +9.6% |
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EFX Fundamental Analysis
Equifax's revenue trajectory remains solidly growth-oriented, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.649 billion, up 14.35% year-over-year. This marks an acceleration from the 8.0% YoY growth in Q1 2025 and the 9.2% growth in Q4 2025. The growth is broad-based, with US Consumer Information Solutions revenue of $605.6 million, Workforce Solutions at $683.1 million, and International at $360.2 million. The Workforce segment, which provides income verification and HR services, is a key growth driver, benefiting from secular trends in employment verification and background checks. The company is profitable, with Q1 2026 net income of $171.5 million and a net margin of 10.4%. Gross margin improved to 53.5% in Q1 2026 from 54.5% in Q1 2025, while operating margin came in at 17.4%, down from 16.4% a year ago. The slight margin compression reflects investments in technology and data analytics, but overall profitability remains healthy. Return on equity (ROE) stands at 14.3%, indicating efficient capital use. Equifax maintains a manageable balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11 and a current ratio of 0.60, which is low but typical for the industry. Free cash flow (FCF) for the trailing twelve months is $1.139 billion, providing ample coverage for capital expenditures of $120.4 million in Q1 2026. The company generated $241.9 million in operating cash flow in Q1, and FCF yield is approximately 4.3% based on the current market cap. The company's ability to generate strong cash flow supports its dividend and share repurchase programs, with $260 million in buybacks in Q1 2026.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.6B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
53.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EFX Overvalued?
Since Equifax has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 40.5x, while the forward P/E is 17.2x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The wide gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that the market is pricing in a sharp recovery in earnings, likely driven by margin expansion and revenue growth. Compared to the industry average (Consulting Services), Equifax's trailing P/E of 40.5x is at a premium, but the forward P/E of 17.2x is more reasonable. The P/S ratio of 4.4x is also above the sector median, reflecting the company's strong market position and growth prospects. Historically, Equifax's trailing P/E has ranged from roughly 28x to 73x over the past five years. The current trailing P/E of 40.5x is near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is relatively cheap compared to its own history. The forward P/E of 17.2x is near the bottom of its historical forward P/E range, indicating that the market may be undervaluing the company's earnings potential. The PEG ratio of 4.1x suggests that the stock is not cheap on a growth-adjusted basis, but this is distorted by the trailing P/E; the forward PEG based on expected EPS growth is likely lower.
PE
40.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 28x~73x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Equifax carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11 and a current ratio of 0.60, indicating significant leverage and limited short-term liquidity. Operating margin declined from 20.2% in Q2 2025 to 17.4% in Q1 2026, while net margin fell from 12.4% to 10.4% over the same period, suggesting cost pressures from technology investments. Free cash flow of $1.139B TTM provides a cushion, but any revenue deceleration could strain debt servicing. The trailing P/E of 40.5x implies high earnings expectations, leaving little room for error.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 1.316 makes it highly sensitive to macro conditions, and its 32% annual decline reflects market skepticism. Rising interest rates could reduce mortgage origination volumes, directly impacting Equifax's US Consumer Information Solutions revenue. Competition from Experian and TransUnion, as well as emerging AI-driven credit models (e.g., Upstart), could erode market share. The stock's current price near the 52-week low suggests limited downside but also a lack of near-term catalysts.
Worst-Case Scenario: A prolonged recession with rising unemployment and falling mortgage demand could cause revenue to contract, margins to compress further, and the stock to retest its 52-week low of $150.75. This would represent a 14.9% decline from the current price of $177.08. If earnings disappoint and the forward P/E expands to 20x on lower estimates, the stock could fall to $140, a 21% loss. The maximum drawdown of -43.51% from the 52-week high indicates that losses of up to 40% are possible in a severe downturn.