Equifax
EFX
$162.81
-0.75%
Equifax is a leading global data, analytics, and technology company operating primarily as one of the three major credit bureaus in the United States, providing consumer credit reports and scores critical to lending decisions. The company has a distinct competitive identity as a data and analytics platform, deriving significant revenue from its Workforce Solutions segment for income verification and HR services, and maintains a global footprint with about a quarter of its revenue generated internationally. The current investor narrative is dominated by concerns over the company's financial performance and stock price trajectory, as evidenced by a steep year-to-date decline, with debates likely centered on its ability to navigate economic headwinds, manage its debt load, and execute a turnaround amidst a challenging market for financial data providers.…
EFX
Equifax
$162.81
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy EFX Today?
Rating & Thesis: Hold. Equifax is a financially strained company with a valuable core business, currently priced for a recovery that is uncertain but plausible. The divided analyst community, with maintained 'Overweight' ratings from major firms alongside a neutral 'Equal Weight', reflects this high uncertainty, lacking a clear consensus target for upside calculation.
Supporting Evidence: This Hold rating is supported by four key data points. First, valuation is in transition, with a high trailing P/E of 40.48x but a more reasonable forward P/E of 15.96x based on estimated EPS of $16.97. Second, revenue growth, while positive at 9.24% YoY in Q4, shows concerning sequential deceleration. Third, profitability is weak, with a TTM net margin of 10.87%. Fourth, the company's saving grace is its strong TTM free cash flow of $1.13B, which provides crucial financial flexibility.
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are a further deterioration in liquidity (current ratio < 0.60) and a breakdown below the $156.47 technical support level. This Hold would upgrade to a Buy if the forward P/E compresses further toward 12-13x on sustained earnings growth, or if QoQ revenue growth re-accelerates above 3%. It would downgrade to a Sell if the current ratio falls below 0.50 or if the stock decisively breaks the $156 support. The stock is currently fairly valued for the elevated risk it carries, trading between optimistic trailing multiples and a cautious forward outlook.
Sign up to view all
EFX 12-Month Price Forecast
The outlook for EFX is a classic 'show me' story with balanced risks. The forward valuation is not demanding, but it is entirely contingent on the company delivering a significant earnings recovery that has yet to be demonstrated amidst clear operational headwinds. The substantial free cash flow provides a margin of safety, but the poor liquidity metric cannot be ignored. The base case of a gradual, low-growth recovery is most probable, but the stock's high beta of 1.35 means it will remain volatile and sensitive to broader market moves. The stance would upgrade to Bullish on confirmation of margin stabilization and re-accelerating sequential revenue growth. It would downgrade to Bearish on a breakdown below the $156.47 support or a further deterioration in the current ratio.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Equifax's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $211.65 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$211.65
13 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
13
covering this stock
Price Range
$130 - $212
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 13 analysts, indicating substantial institutional research interest. While a specific consensus recommendation (Buy/Hold/Sell) and average target price are not provided in the data, recent institutional rating actions show a mix of maintained bullish and neutral stances from major firms like Morgan Stanley (Overweight), JP Morgan (Overweight), and Barclays (Equal Weight) in early February 2026, suggesting a divided but engaged analyst community. The wide range in forward estimates, with EPS expectations spanning from $16.29 to $17.90 and revenue estimates from $8.55 billion to $9.20 billion, signals high uncertainty and a lack of strong conviction on the precise trajectory, meaning the implied upside or downside to any consensus target would be highly sensitive to the underlying assumptions about growth and margin recovery.
Bulls vs Bears: EFX Investment Factors
The bear case currently holds stronger evidence, anchored by a severe 37.7% price decline, persistent negative momentum, and clear signs of financial strain in the form of margin compression and a weak current ratio. The bull case rests on the expectation of an earnings rebound priced into a reasonable forward P/E of 15.96x and the company's strong underlying free cash flow generation. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company's robust $1.13B TTM free cash flow can overcome its operational challenges (margin pressure, decelerating growth) and balance sheet risks (high leverage, poor liquidity) to deliver the earnings recovery implied by its forward valuation. The resolution of this tension—specifically, whether management can stabilize margins and reignite growth—will determine the stock's direction.
Bullish
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Equifax generates substantial free cash flow, with TTM FCF of $1.13 billion. This provides a solid financial cushion to service its debt, invest in the business, and return capital to shareholders, evidenced by a 35.3% payout ratio.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The stock's forward P/E of 15.96x is a significant discount to its trailing P/E of 40.48x, implying the market expects a strong earnings recovery. This forward multiple is based on analyst EPS estimates averaging $16.97, suggesting a reasonable valuation if targets are met.
- Resilient Core Business Model: As one of the three major U.S. credit bureaus, Equifax operates a critical, entrenched business with a 44.6% gross margin. Its diversified revenue stream, with ~40% from Workforce Solutions, provides stability beyond traditional credit reporting.
- Analyst Support Amid Downturn: Despite the stock's severe decline, major institutions like Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan maintain 'Overweight' ratings as of early February 2026. This suggests professional conviction in a long-term recovery, even amidst near-term headwinds.
Bearish
- Severe Technical Downtrend and Weakness: The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, down 37.7% over the past year and trading near its 52-week low of $156.47. It has underperformed the S&P 500 by 65.6% over the past year, with negative momentum persisting (-8.2% over the past month).
- Margin Compression and Profitability Pressure: Profitability is under pressure, with a Q4 2025 net margin of 11.33%, down significantly from the gross margin of 44.6%. The TTM net margin of 10.87% indicates ongoing challenges in converting revenue to bottom-line earnings.
- High Leverage and Liquidity Concerns: The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11, indicating a leveraged balance sheet. More concerning is the current ratio of 0.60, which signals potential short-term liquidity constraints and financial stress.
- Revenue Growth Deceleration: While Q4 2025 revenue grew 9.24% YoY to $1.55B, sequential growth has stalled (Q3: $1.54B, Q2: $1.54B). This plateau suggests the company's growth momentum is waning, raising questions about its ability to re-accelerate.
EFX Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend is a pronounced and sustained downtrend, with the stock down 37.72% over the past year and currently trading at a mere 59.4% of its 52-week range, positioned much closer to its 52-week low of $156.47 than its high of $275.91. This positioning near multi-year lows suggests the stock is in a deep value zone but also carries significant 'falling knife' risk, as the downtrend has been severe, evidenced by a maximum drawdown of -43.78%. Recent momentum shows continued weakness, with the stock down 8.18% over the past month and 16.92% over the past three months, a deceleration that aligns with and reinforces the longer-term bearish trend; this persistent negative momentum is further highlighted by a stark underperformance relative to the S&P 500, with a 1-month relative strength of -13.02. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $156.47, while resistance lies far above near the 52-week high of $275.91; a breakdown below the $156.47 support could trigger another leg down, while any recovery would face immense overhead supply, and the stock's elevated beta of 1.35 confirms it is approximately 35% more volatile than the broader market, amplifying both downside risk and potential upside moves.
Beta
1.35
1.35x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-43.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$156-$276
Price range past year
Annual Return
-37.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EFX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -5.6% | +5.1% |
| 3m | -17.8% | +8.3% |
| 6m | -23.5% | +10.4% |
| 1y | -37.9% | +29.6% |
| ytd | -23.9% | +10.1% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
EFX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been positive but appears to be decelerating; the most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 2025) was $1.55 billion, representing a 9.24% year-over-year increase, yet this follows a trend where Q3 2025 revenue of $1.54 billion showed only modest sequential growth from Q2's $1.54 billion, suggesting growth momentum may be plateauing. The company is profitable with a net income of $175.7 million in Q4 2025, but profitability metrics show pressure, as the net margin was 11.33% for that quarter, which is down from the gross margin of 44.60% reported in valuation data, indicating high operating and interest expenses; this margin compression is a concern, especially when compared to the trailing twelve-month net margin of 10.87%. Balance sheet health is a significant area of focus, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11 indicating a leveraged capital structure, though the company generates substantial free cash flow (TTM FCF of $1.13 billion) providing coverage; however, the current ratio of 0.60 points to potential short-term liquidity constraints, and the return on equity of 14.34% suggests moderate efficiency in using shareholder capital.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.09%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.10%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is EFX Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is elevated at 40.48x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 15.96x; this substantial gap implies the market expects a strong recovery in earnings over the next twelve months, likely pricing in analyst EPS estimates averaging $16.97. Compared to sector averages, data is not available in the provided inputs for a direct industry PE comparison; however, the stock's own historical PE context is revealing, as the current trailing PE of 40.48x is below the historical high seen in recent quarters (e.g., 56.77x in Q1 2025) but still above levels seen during more profitable periods, suggesting the valuation is compressing from previously optimistic levels but may not yet be at a deep historical discount. The stock's Price-to-Sales ratio of 4.40x and EV-to-Sales of 3.93x offer alternative views, but the forward PE's discount to the trailing multiple remains the clearest signal that valuation is contingent on a material earnings rebound materializing as forecasted.
PE
40.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 27x~73x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Equifax faces significant financial risks stemming from its leveraged balance sheet, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11, and acute short-term liquidity concerns, evidenced by a current ratio of just 0.60. Profitability is under clear pressure, as the gap between a 44.6% gross margin and a 10.87% TTM net margin indicates high operating and interest expenses are compressing earnings. Furthermore, revenue growth shows signs of deceleration, with sequential quarters plateauing around $1.54B, suggesting dependence on a successful turnaround to justify its current valuation.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock carries substantial valuation compression risk, as its elevated trailing P/E of 40.48x is compressing from a recent high of 56.77x (Q1 2025), indicating the market is reassessing its growth premium. Its high beta of 1.35 makes it approximately 35% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside during risk-off periods, as seen in its severe underperformance. Competitive risks are emerging, as noted in recent news highlighting fintech rivals like Upstart building their own AI tools, potentially disrupting Equifax's analytics-driven services over the long term.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a continuation of the current downtrend, where margin pressure intensifies, revenue growth turns negative, and the company's liquidity position forces a dilutive capital raise or dividend cut. This could trigger a cascade of analyst downgrades and a loss of investor confidence. A realistic downside could see the stock re-test and break below its 52-week low of $156.47, potentially falling towards the $140-$150 range, representing a further 10-15% decline from the current price of ~$164. Combined with the existing -43.78% maximum drawdown, an investor could face total losses approaching 50% from the 52-week high in this adverse scenario.
FAQ
The key risks of holding EFX are, in order of severity: 1) Financial Risk: High leverage (D/E of 1.11) and critical short-term liquidity constraints (current ratio of 0.60). 2) Operational Risk: Significant margin compression, with a TTM net margin of 10.87% far below its 44.6% gross margin. 3) Market Risk: The stock is in a severe downtrend, down 37.7% over the past year and 35% more volatile than the market (beta 1.35), exposing it to further declines. 4) Competitive Risk: Emerging threats from fintech and AI-driven competitors potentially disrupting its analytics services over time.
The 12-month forecast for EFX is a wide range reflecting high uncertainty, with three primary scenarios. The Base Case (55% probability) sees the stock trading between $185 and $220, assuming modest growth and margin stabilization. The Bull Case (25% probability) targets $240 to $275 on a successful turnaround and earnings beat. The Bear Case (20% probability) warns of a drop to $140-$156 if operational deterioration continues and key support breaks. The Base Case is most likely, predicated on the assumption that the company's strong $1.13B TTM free cash flow provides enough stability to navigate current challenges without a major crisis.
EFX's valuation presents a paradox, making it neither clearly overvalued nor undervalued. Based on trailing earnings, it looks expensive with a P/E of 40.48x, reflecting past profitability challenges. However, based on forward earnings expectations, it appears more reasonable at a P/E of 15.96x. This forward multiple suggests the market is paying a fair price for the anticipated earnings recovery but is not assigning a deep discount due to the high execution risk. The valuation is therefore fairly valued relative to its uncertain future prospects, but carries a premium if the expected turnaround fails to materialize.
EFX is a high-risk, high-potential-reward stock that may be a good buy only for specific investors. The forward P/E of 15.96x is reasonable if the company can deliver on analyst EPS estimates averaging $16.97, implying significant earnings growth. However, the stock carries substantial risks, including a severe -37.7% year-long decline, margin compression, and a worrisome current ratio of 0.60. It is a good buy for contrarian, patient investors who believe in the durability of its credit bureau moat and its ability to execute a turnaround, but it is not suitable for risk-averse or short-term oriented investors.
EFX is unsuitable for short-term trading and is only appropriate for long-term investors with a minimum 2-3 year horizon. The stock's high beta of 1.35 and severe downtrend make it far too volatile and risky for short-term speculation. The investment thesis is fundamentally a long-term turnaround story, requiring time for management to address margin issues, manage debt, and potentially re-accelerate growth. The minimal dividend yield of 0.87% does not provide income support for holders. Therefore, only investors willing to be patient and absorb significant volatility should consider EFX as a long-term, contrarian position.