EMR

Emerson Electric

$167.71

+0.87%
Oct 28, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Emerson Electric Co. is a global industrial technology and automation company that designs and manufactures valves, gauges, switches, control systems, and automation software used across process, hybrid, and discrete manufacturing industries, organized primarily around its Intelligent Devices, Software and Systems, and Final Control segments. Once a diversified conglomerate spanning climate technologies and consumer tools, Emerson has deliberately repositioned itself as a more focused pure-play industrial automation platform, competing with the likes of Honeywell, Rockwell Automation, and Siemens in the race to digitize the factory floor. The current investor narrative centers on whether this portfolio transformation can deliver durable mid-single-digit organic growth and margin expansion, with recent quarterly results showing revenue growth of roughly 7% year over year and gross margins climbing above 54%, reinforcing the case that the automation-focused strategy is bearing fruit. Attention is also focused on the company's software and systems push and its ability to convert industrial digitalization demand into recurring, higher-margin revenue, balanced against a premium valuation that leaves little room for execution missteps.

People also watch

GE Vernova

GE Vernova

GEV

Analysis
Parker Hannifin

Parker Hannifin

PH

Analysis
Illinois Tool Works

Illinois Tool Works

ITW

Analysis
Cummins

Cummins

CMI

Analysis
PACCAR

PACCAR

PCAR

Analysis

EMR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $167.71
Average Target $167.71
High Target $192.87
Low Target $142.55

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Emerson Electric's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $175.00 and implied upside of +4.3% versus the current price.

Average Target

$175.00

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+4.3%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

—

covering this stock

Price Range

$104 - $208

Analyst target range

Coverage is deep, with 28 analysts following Emerson and a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating of 1.9 on a scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average price target of $174.96 implies roughly 8.3% upside from the current $161.59, a moderate but positive signal. Consensus revenue estimates of $22.98 billion and EPS estimates of $9.42 for the forward period suggest analysts expect continued mid-single-digit growth, and the bullish tilt is reinforced by recent actions: JP Morgan upgraded to Overweight from Neutral in July 2026, while Bernstein, Evercore ISI, RBC, and Citigroup all maintain Outperform or Buy ratings.

The target range is wide, spanning $104 on the low end to $205 on the high end — a spread of roughly 97% of the current price, which signals meaningful disagreement about the trajectory. The $205 high target likely assumes successful software-led margin expansion, sustained 7%+ organic growth, and multiple expansion toward the upper end of historical ranges, while the $104 low target appears to price in a cyclical industrial downturn, margin compression, or loss of share to automation competitors. The presence of Morgan Stanley at Underweight and TD Cowen, DA Davidson, Wells Fargo, and Barclays at Hold/Neutral indicates a meaningful bearish-to-cautious contingent, and the wide dispersion combined with a consensus target only 8% above the current price suggests the stock is fairly valued to modestly undervalued in the eyes of the Street, with conviction strongest among the bulls but tempered by valuation concerns among the skeptics.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

Bulls vs Bears: EMR Investment Factors

The bull case currently holds the stronger evidence: revenue growth has accelerated to 7.03% YoY, gross margin has expanded 192bp to 54.48%, operating leverage is visible, and $3.46B of TTM free cash flow funds both the dividend and buybacks. The bear case rests less on fundamentals than on price — a 32.23x trailing PE near the top of its historical range, a 1.78 PEG, and a consensus target only 8.3% above spot mean the turnaround is largely paid for. The single most important tension is whether the software-and-systems mix can sustain margin expansion fast enough to justify the multiple; if gross margin keeps climbing toward the high-50s and organic growth holds at 7%, the premium is earned, but any deceleration toward low single digits would expose the stock to multiple compression toward its 22.2x forward PE or below. Analyst dispersion ($104 to $205) confirms the market has not resolved this debate.

Bullish

  • Revenue growth re-accelerating to 7%: Q3 2026 revenue of $4.873B grew 7.03% YoY versus $4.553B, up from roughly 2.9% growth in the March 2025 quarter. The sequential build from $4.346B (Q1) to $4.562B (Q2) to $4.873B (Q3) shows a consistent, broadening demand trend rather than a one-quarter rebound.
  • Gross margin expansion shows pricing power: Gross margin rose to 54.48% in Q3 2026 from 52.56% a year earlier and 53.09% in the prior quarter, while operating margin improved to 20.54% from 19.94%. For an industrial machinery company, >54% gross and ~20% operating margins reflect a favorable mix shift toward software and services.
  • Strong free cash flow funds shareholder returns: TTM free cash flow of $3.46B and quarterly FCF of $1.322B comfortably cover $311M of dividends and $356M of buybacks, with only $102M of quarterly capex. Operating cash flow of $1.424B in the quarter means the company self-funds returns with minimal external financing dependence.
  • Analyst consensus buy with 8.3% upside: 28 analysts carry a mean rating of 1.9 (Buy) and an average target of $174.96, implying ~8.3% upside from $161.59. JP Morgan upgraded to Overweight in July 2026, and Bernstein, Evercore ISI, RBC and Citigroup all maintain Outperform/Buy ratings.

Bearish

  • Trailing PE of 32.2x near historical peak: The trailing PE of 32.23x sits near the top of its historical band (roughly 15.7x in late 2024 to over 32x in mid-2025). The 31% gap to the 22.20x forward PE means the market has already priced in substantial earnings delivery, leaving little cushion for disappointment.
  • PEG of 1.78 signals premium for growth: A PEG ratio of 1.78, alongside PS of 4.10x and EV/EBITDA of 17.78x, indicates investors are paying above 1.0x for growth. With consensus forward EPS of $9.42 and revenue of $22.98B implying only mid-single-digit growth, the multiple embeds optimism that must be continuously validated.
  • Wide analyst dispersion and cautious camp: Targets span $104 to $205, a spread of roughly 97% of the current price, signaling genuine disagreement on trajectory. Morgan Stanley is Underweight and TD Cowen, DA Davidson, Wells Fargo and Barclays sit at Hold/Neutral, with the consensus target only 8.3% above spot.
  • Sub-1.0 current ratio limits liquidity buffer: A current ratio of 0.876 means current liabilities exceed current assets, so the balance sheet leans on operating cash flow rather than a cash cushion. Debt-to-equity of 0.678 and ROE of 11.31% are adequate but not exceptional for a premium-multiple industrial.

EMR Technical Analysis

Emerson is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 21.32% over the past year and 18.97% year to date, comfortably outperforming the S&P 500's 13.13% and 11.45% respective gains. At a current price of $161.59, the shares sit at approximately 89.1% of their 52-week range of $122.64 to $166.35, positioning them near the upper end of the band — a sign of persistent momentum but also of limited near-term cushion against profit-taking. This positioning suggests the market has already rewarded the automation turnaround story, and the stock is now trading in the zone where incremental buyers need fresh catalysts to push through the prior high.

Short-term momentum is positive but decelerating relative to the longer-term trend. The stock has gained 4.53% over the past month and 9.23% over three months, both solid but slower than the 14.32% six-month advance, indicating the pace of appreciation is moderating even as the direction remains upward. Notably, Emerson's one-month relative strength versus the S&P 500 is +5.55 percentage points, a meaningful divergence given the index fell 1.02% over the same period — this suggests rotation into quality industrials rather than a broad-market tailwind, which is a healthier signal for the durability of the move. The stock's beta of 1.207 implies roughly 21% more volatility than the market, so position sizing should account for amplified drawdowns during risk-off episodes.

Key technical levels are well defined: resistance sits at the 52-week high of $166.35, roughly 2.9% above the current price, while support rests near the 52-week low of $122.64, about 24% below. A clean breakout above $166.35 would confirm the uptrend and likely invite momentum-driven flows, whereas a breakdown below the $150–$152 area (a recent consolidation floor) would signal a deeper mean-reversion move toward the low end of the range. The maximum drawdown of -23.74% over the trailing period underscores that despite the uptrend, this name can deliver sharp corrections, reinforcing the need for disciplined stop levels given the 1.207 beta.

Beta

1.21

1.21x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-23.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$123-$169

Price range past year

Annual Return

+24.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodEMR ReturnS&P 500
1m+5.2%+0.9%
3m+12.8%+4.1%
6m+22.0%+7.2%
1y+24.7%+12.4%
ytd+23.5%+13.3%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

EMR Fundamental Analysis

Emerson's revenue trajectory is clearly re-accelerating, with the most recent quarter (ended June 30, 2026) delivering $4.873 billion in revenue, up 7.03% year over year from $4.553 billion. The sequential progression tells a consistent growth story: $4.346 billion in Q1 2026, $4.562 billion in Q2, and $4.873 billion in Q3, each quarter building on the last, while year-over-year comparisons have improved from roughly 2.9% in the March 2025 quarter to the current 7.03%. Segment data shows Intelligent Devices as the dominant contributor at $2.677 billion, followed by Software and Systems at $1.644 billion and Final Control at $552 million, indicating the hardware-centric automation franchise remains the growth engine while software provides a higher-margin complement. This accelerating top line supports the thesis that Emerson's portfolio reshaping toward automation is translating into durable demand rather than a one-off rebound.

Profitability is robust and improving. The latest quarter generated $718 million in net income on a 14.73% net margin, with gross margin expanding to 54.48% from 52.56% a year earlier and 53.09% in the prior quarter — a clear upward trajectory. Operating margin reached 20.54%, up from 19.94% in the year-ago quarter, and EBITDA came in at $1.205 billion, a 24.73% EBITDA margin. For an industrial machinery company, gross margins above 50% and operating margins around 20% are competitive, reflecting pricing power and a favorable mix shift toward software and services, and the steady margin expansion alongside revenue growth is a hallmark of operating leverage that should support earnings growth even if volume growth moderates.

Balance sheet and cash flow metrics are solid but warrant monitoring. Free cash flow on a trailing-twelve-month basis is $3.46 billion, with quarterly FCF of $1.322 billion in Q3 2026, comfortably covering the $311 million in dividends paid and $356 million in buybacks. Debt-to-equity stands at 0.678, ROE is 11.31%, and ROA is 6.90%, while the current ratio of 0.876 is below 1.0 — a liquidity profile that leans on strong operating cash flow rather than a large cash buffer. The dividend yield of 1.61% with a payout ratio of 51.98% is well covered, and the company's ability to self-fund capex ($102 million in the quarter) and shareholder returns from operating cash flow of $1.424 billion indicates low external financing dependence, though the sub-1.0 current ratio is a reminder that working capital management matters.

Quarterly Revenue

$4.9B

2026-06

Revenue YoY Growth

+7.0%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

54.5%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$3.5B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Final Control
Intelligent Devices
Software And Systems

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is EMR Overvalued?

Because Emerson is solidly profitable with trailing net income of $718 million in the latest quarter and positive EPS, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 32.23x versus a forward PE of 22.20x, a gap of roughly 31% that implies the market expects meaningful earnings growth — consistent with consensus EPS estimates of $9.42 for the forward period. The forward multiple of 22.2x is far more reasonable than the trailing figure and suggests that if earnings materialize as forecast, valuation compression is already partly priced in.

Relative to the broader industrial machinery sector, Emerson's multiples look full. Its price-to-sales ratio of 4.10x and EV/EBITDA of 17.78x sit alongside a PEG ratio of 1.78, indicating investors are paying a premium for growth that is above 1.0x — not egregiously expensive for a high-quality automation franchise, but not cheap either. The price-to-book ratio of 3.64x and price-to-cash-flow of 23.83x further reflect a market willing to pay up for Emerson's software-inflected mix and margin profile, and the premium appears broadly justified by its 54% gross margins and 20% operating margins, which exceed typical machinery-sector norms.

Historically, Emerson's valuation has been volatile: its PE ratio ranged from roughly 15.7x in late 2024 to over 32x in mid-2025, and the current 32.23x trailing multiple sits near the upper end of that band. Its PS ratio of 4.10x, however, is well below the 15–17x levels recorded in the historical ratios data, reflecting the impact of the portfolio divestitures on the revenue base and making cross-period PS comparisons less meaningful. The elevated trailing PE suggests the market is pricing in optimistic earnings recovery, leaving the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if growth or margin delivery disappoints, while the more moderate forward PE offers some valuation support.

PE

32.2x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 16x~47x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

17.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial and operational risks center on valuation-dependent earnings delivery and a thin liquidity buffer. The trailing PE of 32.23x versus forward PE of 22.20x requires roughly 31% EPS growth to materialize, with consensus at $9.42; a miss would compress the multiple quickly. The current ratio of 0.876 means current liabilities exceed current assets, so working capital management matters, and revenue remains concentrated in Intelligent Devices at $2.677B of the $4.873B quarterly total (55%), leaving the franchise exposed to a capex cycle in process manufacturing. Interest expense of $85M in Q3 is manageable against $1.001B of operating income, but debt-to-equity of 0.678 and ROE of 11.31% offer limited cushion if margins stall.

Market and competitive risks are dominated by multiple compression and cyclical sensitivity. At 4.10x sales, 17.78x EV/EBITDA and a 1.78 PEG, EMR trades at a premium to typical machinery norms, justified only by its 54% gross and 20% operating margins; if growth decelerates toward low single digits, the stock would likely re-rate toward its historical low-teens PE range. Beta of 1.207 means roughly 21% more volatility than the market, so a risk-off rotation or an industrial capex slowdown would hit EMR harder than the index. Competition from Honeywell, Rockwell Automation and Siemens in factory digitization, plus the stock sitting at ~89.1% of its 52-week range, leaves little valuation cushion for competitive share loss.

The worst-case scenario is a synchronized industrial capex downturn combined with software growth stalling, which would hit revenue growth, margins and the multiple simultaneously. In that chain, 7% growth could fall to flat or negative, gross margin could retreat toward the 51.9% seen in Q4 2025, and the trailing PE could compress from 32.23x toward the high-teens, implying a decline toward the $122.64 52-week low — roughly -24% from $161.59 — with the $104 analyst low target representing about -36% downside. The -23.74% max drawdown over the trailing period confirms this magnitude is realistic rather than theoretical, and a 1.207 beta would amplify the move in a broad market selloff.