Erie Indemnity Co
ERIE
$0.00
-0.23%
Erie Indemnity Co is a key player in the U.S. insurance sector, acting as the exclusive managing attorney-in-fact for the member-owned Erie Insurance Exchange. Its core business involves providing sales, underwriting, and policy issuance services for the Exchange, which offers a range of personal and commercial insurance products, including auto and homeowners insurance. The company is a distinctive, policyholder-owned entity with a strong regional presence, operating exclusively within the United States. The current investor narrative is dominated by concerns over the stock's significant underperformance relative to the broader market, as evidenced by a steep year-to-date price decline, which is likely tied to debates about its growth trajectory, margin pressures from a competitive insurance landscape, and its ability to navigate a potentially challenging operating environment.…
ERIE
Erie Indemnity Co
$0.00
ERIE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Erie Indemnity Co's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.
Average Target
$0.00
1 analysts
Implied Upside
—
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$0 - $0
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Erie Indemnity is extremely limited, with only one analyst providing estimates. This sparse coverage is typical for a smaller, regionally-focused insurance services company and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery due to a lack of institutional scrutiny and consensus. The single analyst estimates EPS of $12.70 and revenue of $4.61 billion. Without a published consensus price target or Buy/Hold/Sell distribution, it is impossible to calculate a clear implied upside or downside or gauge sentiment. The implications of minimal coverage are significant: investors must conduct more independent due diligence, and the stock may be more prone to mispricing. The absence of a target price range also means there is no visible spectrum of bull and bear cases from the analyst community to inform investment decisions.
ERIE Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced and sustained downtrend, having declined 36.56% over the past year and 20.40% year-to-date. With a current price of $221.14, it is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range of $204.63 to $380.67, positioning it at approximately 9.5% above its 52-week low. This proximity to multi-year lows suggests the stock is deeply oversold, presenting a potential value opportunity, but also indicates significant negative momentum that could persist if fundamental headwinds remain. Recent momentum shows signs of a potential near-term stabilization or bottoming attempt, though it remains weak. The stock is down 0.90% over the past month, which is a significant underperformance compared to the S&P 500's 0.74% gain, as indicated by a relative strength of -1.64. However, the 3-month decline of 8.00% is less severe than the 1-year drop, hinting at a possible deceleration in selling pressure, though this could also represent a consolidation within a broader downtrend. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $204.63 and major resistance at the 52-week high of $380.67. A decisive breakdown below $204.63 would signal a continuation of the bearish trend, while a sustained move above recent highs near $230 could indicate the beginning of a recovery. The stock's beta of 0.307 indicates it is approximately 70% less volatile than the broader market, which is unusual given its recent sharp decline and suggests its price movements have been driven more by idiosyncratic, company-specific factors than systemic market risk.
Beta
0.31
0.31x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-44.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$205-$381
Price range past year
Annual Return
-36.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ERIE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -0.9% | +0.1% |
| 3m | -8.0% | +13.9% |
| 6m | -22.1% | +8.5% |
| 1y | -36.6% | +25.6% |
| ytd | -20.4% | +9.5% |
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ERIE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $951.2 million representing a 2.93% year-over-year increase. However, examining the sequential quarterly trend from the income statements reveals volatility: revenue grew from $989.4 million in Q1 2025 to a peak of $1.30 billion in Q3 2025, before dropping back to $951.2 million in Q4. This pattern suggests potential seasonality or uneven business performance rather than a steady growth trajectory. The company remains profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $63.38 million and a net margin of 6.66%. Profitability metrics show compression from prior quarters; for instance, the Q4 gross margin of 14.59% is significantly lower than the Q3 gross margin of 34.22%, indicating potential pressure on underwriting profitability or service fee structures. The trailing twelve-month net margin stands at 13.75%, which is healthy for the industry. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, indicating no financial leverage and minimal bankruptcy risk. The company generated robust free cash flow of $570.97 million over the trailing twelve months, providing ample internal resources for dividends and growth initiatives. Return on equity is high at 24.50%, and the current ratio of 1.31 demonstrates solid short-term liquidity. This combination of strong cash generation, zero debt, and high returns signals a fundamentally sound financial position despite the stock price weakness.
Quarterly Revenue
$951199000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.02%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.14%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$570965000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ERIE Overvalued?
Given the company's consistent profitability, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E ratio is 23.87x, while the forward P/E is notably lower at 15.78x. This significant gap implies the market expects a substantial recovery in earnings over the next twelve months, aligning with the single analyst's EPS estimate of $12.70. Compared to industry averages, Erie Indemnity trades at a premium. Its trailing P/E of 23.87x and Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.28x are elevated relative to many financial services peers, though direct industry average data is not provided in the valuation set. This premium may be partially justified by its unique, debt-free business model, high ROE of 24.50%, and strong cash flow generation. Historically, the stock's current trailing P/E of 23.87x sits well below its own historical range observed in the data, which has seen P/E ratios frequently above 30x and even above 50x in recent quarters (e.g., 52.66x in Q4 2025). This suggests the stock is trading at a discount to its own historical valuation norms, which could indicate a value opportunity if earnings stabilize, or it may reflect a market reassessment of its long-term growth prospects.
PE
23.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 20x~53x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple

