ESI

Element Solutions

$35.40

-1.09%
Oct 29, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Element Solutions Inc. is a specialty chemicals company operating through two reportable segments — Electronics and Industrial & Specialty — with the Electronics segment generating the majority of revenue by supplying wet chemicals for metallization, surface treatments, solderable finishes, and assembly materials such as solder, pastes, fluxes, and adhesives used in printed circuit boards and semiconductor packaging. The company occupies a high-value niche as a critical enabling supplier to electronics hardware manufacturing, giving it a technically differentiated, specification-driven position rather than a commodity chemical profile. The current investor narrative centers on an AI-driven electronics demand boom: the stock has rallied sharply year-to-date on raised guidance and strong cash flow generation, with the Electronics segment (roughly $767 million in reported segment revenue) at the center of the thesis. That enthusiasm has recently collided with a sharp multi-month pullback, creating an active debate over whether the AI-inflection growth story is intact or whether expectations had run ahead of near-term fundamentals.

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ESI 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $35.40
Average Target $35.40
High Target $40.71
Low Target $30.09

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Element Solutions's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $47.33 and implied upside of +33.7% versus the current price.

Average Target

$47.33

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+33.7%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

—

covering this stock

Price Range

$42 - $55

Analyst target range

Coverage is robust with 12 analysts, and sentiment is decisively bullish: the consensus recommendation is "strong_buy" with a mean rating of 1.33 (where 1.0 is a strong buy), and the average target price of $47.17 implies roughly +42% upside from the current $33.21. That gap is unusually wide and reflects the disconnect between analyst models — anchored on forward EPS of $2.53 and revenue of ~$4.34 billion — and a stock that has fallen sharply despite the AI-electronics narrative. The bullish consensus leans heavily on the raised-guidance, strong-cash-flow thesis highlighted in recent coverage.

The target range spans $42.00 to $55.00, a spread of about 31% around the average, signaling meaningful but not extreme uncertainty. The high target of $55.00 would require multiple expansion toward the upper end of the historical PS band alongside delivery of the $2.62 high-end EPS estimate, effectively pricing in flawless AI-driven execution; the low target of $42.00 still sits 26% above the current price and implies the recent selloff is overdone even under conservative assumptions. Institutional ratings show recent stability with a notable negative revision — Mizuho downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on July 15, 2026 — while UBS, Truist, BMO, and KeyBanc have maintained Buy/Outperform/Overweight ratings through September. The pattern of one downgrade against a wall of maintained bullish ratings, combined with the wide target spread, suggests conviction remains high but is increasingly contingent on the next few quarters validating the growth trajectory.

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ESI Technical Analysis

Element Solutions is in a recovery-within-a-downtrend configuration: the stock is up 27.88% over the trailing year and 28.03% year-to-date, yet the current price of $33.21 sits only about 38% of the way through its 52-week range of $22.86 to $49.25 — roughly 32.6% below the 52-week high and 45.3% above the 52-week low. That positioning signals a stock that captured a powerful momentum leg earlier in the year but has since surrendered a large portion of those gains, leaving it in the lower-middle of its annual range rather than at momentum-driven highs. The 35.24% max drawdown underscores how violent the de-rating has been from the peak.

Short-term momentum is clearly negative and diverging sharply from the longer-term trend: the stock is down 6.37% over the past month and 11.30% over three months, versus a still-positive 27.88% one-year return. Relative strength confirms the deterioration — ESI trails SPY by 5.35 percentage points over one month and 14.15 points over three months, even though it leads by 14.75 points over the full year. The most recent action is the concerning part: a drop from $36.34 on October 21 to $33.11 on October 22 (−8.9% in a single session) on elevated volume of roughly 5.82 million shares, followed by a tepid bounce to $33.21, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation and raising the risk that the one-year gain continues to mean-revert.

Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $22.86, with an intermediate floor near the September trough around $31.79–$32.13 that is now being tested, while resistance is anchored at the 52-week high of $49.25 and the June peak near $49.09. A decisive break below the $31.79 area would confirm a lower-low structure and open the door toward the $22.86 low, whereas reclaiming $37–$38 would signal the October selloff was an overshoot. With a short ratio of just 1.58, there is limited short-covering fuel for a squeeze, and the 35.24% max drawdown implies high realized volatility that warrants smaller position sizing regardless of beta (beta not available in the provided data).

Beta

1.26

1.26x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-35.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$23-$49

Price range past year

Annual Return

+33.9%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodESI ReturnS&P 500
1m-1.6%+0.7%
3m-3.6%+3.0%
6m-17.7%+6.8%
1y+33.9%+11.9%
ytd+36.5%+12.8%

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ESI Fundamental Analysis

Revenue momentum has inflected dramatically: Q2 2026 revenue reached $977.9 million, up 56.41% year-over-year versus $625.2 million in Q2 2025, and up 16.4% sequentially from Q1 2026's $840.0 million. The multi-quarter trajectory shows a clear acceleration — Q3 2025 was $656.1 million, Q4 2025 $676.2 million, Q1 2026 $840.0 million, and Q2 2026 $977.9 million — a pattern consistent with both organic AI-electronics demand and inorganic contribution, given the $864.2 million of acquisition outflows recorded in the Q2 2026 cash flow statement. The Electronics segment at $767 million is the dominant growth engine, and the consensus revenue estimate of approximately $4.34 billion implies the market expects this elevated run-rate to persist.

Profitability is positive but margin quality is mixed: Q2 2026 net income was $77.3 million (net margin 7.9%) on gross profit of $334.0 million, a 34.15% gross margin that is notably below the 42.6% gross margin posted in Q2 2025 and the 38.4% in Q1 2026 — a compression likely tied to acquisition mix and purchase accounting. Operating income of $113.7 million (11.6% operating margin) was weighed down by $24.0 million of interest expense and a $66.2 million negative in total other income/expenses, while a $29.8 million tax benefit lifted net income. Trailing operating margin of 13.41% and net margin of 7.48% are modest for a specialty chemicals franchise, and the Q4 2025 quarter — with negative EBITDA of $0.3 million and a net loss before tax of $50.4 million — illustrates how sensitive results are to one-time items.

Balance sheet and cash flow present a mixed picture: the current ratio of 3.68 and debt-to-equity of 0.614 indicate solid liquidity and moderate leverage, with ROE of 7.13% and ROA of 4.68% reflecting the drag from acquisition-related intangible amortization and interest costs. Free cash flow TTM is $131.6 million against a $6.05 billion market cap — a thin FCF yield of roughly 2.2% — and the $20.87 price-to-cash-flow ratio highlights how much of the cash generation is consumed by capital expenditure ($27.9 million in Q2 2026) and dividends ($19.6 million). The $864.2 million acquisition outlay in Q2 2026 was funded partly by $534.4 million of debt repayment activity in Q1, leaving cash at $189.6 million at period end — adequate but not abundant, meaning future growth investment likely depends on continued operating cash flow expansion.

Quarterly Revenue

$977900000.0B

2026-06

Revenue YoY Growth

+56.4%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

34.2%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$131600000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Electronics Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is ESI Overvalued?

Because net income is positive ($77.3 million in Q2 2026), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric: ESI trades at a trailing PE of 31.63x versus a forward PE of 15.33x, an unusually wide gap that implies the market expects earnings to roughly double. That expectation is corroborated by consensus EPS of $2.53 versus trailing EPS of $0.0315 — a comparison distorted by one-time items, but the forward multiple of 15.3x on $2.53 of estimated EPS is the more economically meaningful anchor and suggests the stock is not expensive if those estimates are achieved.

On peer-relative grounds the picture is bifurcated: the PS ratio of 2.37x and EV/Sales of 2.84x look reasonable for a specialty chemicals business, but EV/EBITDA of 22.02x and P/CF of 20.87x sit at a premium to typical chemical-sector multiples in the low-to-mid teens, reflecting the market's willingness to pay for electronics/AI exposure. The PEG ratio of −1.45 is not meaningful given the earnings base distortion, and the 41.96% gross margin and 13.41% operating margin are broadly in line with high-quality specialty chemical peers, which supports some premium but not an extreme one. The 1.29% dividend yield and 40.8% payout ratio indicate a modest but sustainable capital return commitment.

Historically, ESI's own valuation band has been wide: PE ranged from roughly 14.1x (Q1 2025) to 247.9x (Q4 2025) on earnings volatility, while PS ranged from about 6.4x (Q3 2022) to 11.9x (Q2 2026). The current PS of 2.37x is near the low end of that multi-year band — a striking discount that partly reflects the post-selloff price and partly the enlarged revenue base from acquisitions — while the trailing PE of 31.6x is mid-range. The market is thus pricing neither euphoria nor distress: the depressed PS suggests value if margins normalize, but the elevated EV/EBITDA of 22x warns that cash-based valuation already embeds optimistic assumptions.

PE

31.6x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 14x~40x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

22.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple