ETR

Entergy

$102.32

-0.58%
Sep 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Entergy Corporation is a holding company operating five regulated, vertically integrated electric utilities that generate, transmit, and distribute electricity to more than 3 million customers across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, with roughly 25 gigawatts of rate-regulated owned and leased generation capacity. As one of the largest power producers in the United States and a former top-tier nuclear operator, Entergy occupies a distinct position as a pure-play regulated utility with meaningful industrial and petrochemical load exposure along the Gulf Coast. The current investor narrative centers on the company's landmark partnership with Meta, announced in March 2026, which pairs a roughly $2 billion customer savings plan with a major grid expansion tied to hyperscale data-center demand, effectively repositioning Entergy as an AI-infrastructure beneficiary within a traditionally defensive sector. This growth story is being weighed against a premium valuation, elevated capital expenditure requirements, and a stock that has recently lagged the broader market, leaving investors to debate whether the data-center-driven load growth justifies the multiple or whether execution and rate-case risk will cap upside.

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BobbyInvestment Opinion: Should I buy ETR Today?

We assign a Hold rating on Entergy, balancing its compelling data-center growth story against a premium valuation and significant cash flow risks. The analyst consensus is 'buy' with a mean recommendation of 1.74 and an average target price of $123.03, implying 16.8% upside, but the stock's recent underperformance and negative free cash flow warrant caution. The core thesis is that Entergy offers a rare growth opportunity in the utility sector, but execution risks and financial leverage limit near-term upside.

Supporting evidence includes: 1) Revenue growth of 11.97% YoY in Q1 2026, well above the sector average; 2) Net margin of 13.70% and operating margin of 23.59%, indicating solid profitability; 3) Forward PE of 20.64x, which is a premium to the sector but justified by growth; and 4) Analyst target upside of 16.8% to $123.03. However, free cash flow is -$3.00 billion, debt-to-equity is 1.80, and the dividend yield of 2.67% is below peers, highlighting financial strain. The PEG ratio of 0.38 suggests undervaluation relative to growth, but utility PEGs should be interpreted cautiously.

Key risks that could invalidate the thesis include adverse rate-case outcomes, delays in the Meta data-center project, and rising interest rates increasing financing costs. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back to the low $90s (near the 52-week low of $87.38) or if free cash flow turns positive, and downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 5% or if the dividend is cut. Relative to its history, ETR is overvalued (P/B of 2.38x vs. historical 1.4-2.4x), but the growth premium may be justified if the data-center narrative delivers. We view the stock as fairly valued to slightly overvalued at current levels.

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ETR 12-Month Price Forecast

Entergy presents a balanced risk-reward profile, with the bull case hinging on successful execution of the Meta data-center partnership and favorable regulatory outcomes. The stock's premium valuation and negative free cash flow are significant concerns, but the growth trajectory and analyst support provide a cushion. We maintain a neutral stance, as the current price of $105.33 already reflects much of the near-term optimism, and the wide target range ($91-$137) signals uncertainty. An upgrade to bullish would require evidence of positive free cash flow and regulatory approvals, while a downgrade to bearish would follow a revenue growth slowdown below 5% or a dividend cut.

Historical Price
Current Price $102.32
Average Target $119.00
High Target $137.00
Low Target $87.00

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Entergy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $123.03 and implied upside of +20.2% versus the current price.

Average Target

$123.03

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+20.2%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$91 - $137

Analyst target range

Entergy is well covered by 20 analysts, and the consensus is decidedly bullish. The recommendation is "buy" with a recommendation mean of 1.74 (on a scale where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell), and the average price target of $123.03 implies roughly 16.8% upside from the current price of $105.33. The consensus EPS estimate of $7.31 and revenue estimate of $19.92 billion for the forward period suggest analysts expect continued top- and bottom-line expansion, and the recent institutional ratings flow is constructive: Evercore ISI upgraded to Outperform from In Line on June 10, 2026, while Barclays, JP Morgan, Truist, UBS, and Scotiabank all maintained Buy or Overweight-equivalent ratings through the spring.

The target range spans $91.00 to $137.00, a spread of roughly 51% of the current price, which signals meaningful disagreement about the company's trajectory. The high target of $137 implies about 30% upside and likely assumes successful execution on the Meta data-center buildout, accelerating rate-base growth, and multiple expansion as the market fully prices Entergy as an AI-infrastructure play. The low target of $91 implies roughly 14% downside and likely reflects concerns about rate-case risk, elevated capex and negative free cash flow, financing costs, or a scenario where data-center demand fails to materialize as expected. The wide spread, combined with the stock's recent underperformance versus the S&P 500, suggests that while the analyst community is broadly positive, conviction is not uniform and the market is still waiting for tangible evidence that the growth story will translate into earnings and cash flow.

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Bulls vs Bears: ETR Investment Factors

The bull case for Entergy rests on a genuine growth catalyst — the Meta data-center partnership — that could transform a traditionally defensive utility into an AI-infrastructure beneficiary, supported by 11.97% revenue growth and a bullish analyst consensus with 16.8% upside. However, the bear case is equally compelling: the stock trades at a premium valuation (23.22x trailing PE, 2.38x P/B) with negative free cash flow of -$3.00 billion and a debt-to-equity of 1.80, leaving little room for error. Recent momentum has broken down, with ETR underperforming the S&P 500 by 15.64 percentage points over six months and sitting mid-range at $105.33. The single most important tension is whether the data-center-driven load growth will translate into tangible earnings and cash flow before the premium multiple de-rates. Currently, the bear evidence on valuation and cash flow is slightly stronger, but the bull case on growth and analyst support keeps the debate balanced.

Bullish

  • Meta deal repositions ETR as AI play: The March 2026 Meta partnership pairs a roughly $2 billion customer savings plan with a major grid expansion tied to hyperscale data-center demand, giving Entergy a tangible growth catalyst unusual for a regulated utility. This deal supports the 11.97% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2026 and underpins the industrial load expansion narrative.
  • Revenue growth accelerating above utility norms: Q1 2026 revenue rose 11.97% YoY to $3.188 billion from $2.847 billion, extending a streak of mid-to-high single-digit to low-double-digit growth. This is well above the typical 2-4% growth for regulated electric utilities, justifying a premium multiple.
  • Analyst consensus bullish with 16.8% upside: 20 analysts rate ETR a 'buy' with a mean recommendation of 1.74 and an average target of $123.03, implying 16.8% upside from $105.33. Recent upgrades (Evercore ISI to Outperform on June 10, 2026) and maintained Buy ratings from Barclays, JP Morgan, Truist, UBS, and Scotiabank reinforce positive sentiment.
  • Low beta defensive with solid profitability: Beta of 0.481 means ETR moves roughly 52% as much as the S&P 500, offering downside protection. Net margin of 13.70% and operating margin of 23.59% are healthy for a regulated utility, with Q1 2026 net income of $390.8 million up from $360.8 million a year ago.

Bearish

  • Premium valuation leaves no margin for error: ETR trades at a trailing PE of 23.22x, P/B of 2.38x, and EV/EBITDA of 11.68x, all above the typical regulated utility range (P/B 1.4-2.4x, EV/EBITDA 9-11x). Dividend yield of 2.67% is below the sector's 3.0-3.5%, indicating the market is pricing in optimistic growth expectations.
  • Negative free cash flow and high debt burden: Free cash flow is deeply negative at -$3.00 billion TTM, with Q1 2026 capex of $2.252 billion against operating cash flow of only $829 million. Debt-to-equity of 1.80 and total-debt-to-capitalization of 66.25% highlight heavy reliance on debt financing, with a current ratio of 0.731 indicating thin liquidity.
  • Recent underperformance and momentum breakdown: ETR has underperformed the S&P 500 by 8.24 percentage points over three months and 15.64 points over six months, with a 5.20% decline over three months. The stock sits at $105.33, only 47% up its 52-week range, having peaked near $118 in late June and drifted lower since.
  • Rate-case and regulatory execution risk: The entire growth story depends on regulators approving rate-base expansion and allowing fair returns on the Meta data-center investment. Any adverse rate-case outcome could pressure earnings and cash flow, especially given the negative free cash flow and reliance on debt issuance.

ETR Technical Analysis

Entergy is in a broad but choppy uptrend that has lost momentum over the past several months. The stock is up 17.22% over the trailing year and 12.22% year-to-date, yet it sits at $105.33, only about 47% of the way up its 52-week range of $87.38 to $118.45, having peaked near $118 in late June and drifted lower since. That mid-range positioning signals neither the momentum of a breakout nor the deep-value setup of a washed-out name; instead it reflects a stock digesting a strong prior advance while the market reassesses the durability of its growth premium. The 52-week low at $87.38 remains roughly 17% below the current price, underscoring that the longer-term trend structure is still constructive even as short-term direction has turned ambiguous.

Recent momentum has clearly decelerated and now diverges from the longer-term uptrend. The stock is down 2.34% over the past month and 5.20% over three months, a stark contrast to the +17.22% one-year gain, and it has underperformed the S&P 500 by 8.24 percentage points over three months and 15.64 points over six months, with relative strength of -1.28 over the past month. The six-month change of just -0.24% confirms that essentially all of the past half-year has been sideways-to-lower consolidation, with the July drop from $115.95 to $107.79 marking a sharp momentum break. This pattern of a rising 200-day trend colliding with a falling 50-day trend typically signals either a healthy mean-reversion pause within a larger advance or the early stage of a trend reversal, and the burden of proof now sits with the bulls to reclaim the mid-$110s.

Key technical levels are well defined by the 52-week range: resistance sits at the $118.45 high, while support rests at the $87.38 low, with intermediate congestion around $105-$108 where the stock has chopped for weeks. A decisive breakout above $118.45 would confirm the data-center growth narrative is being priced back in and likely open a move toward the analyst high target of $137, whereas a breakdown below $105 could expose the $100 psychological level and, in a deeper risk-off scenario, the low $90s. Volatility is modest, with a beta of just 0.481, meaning Entergy moves roughly 52% as much as the S&P 500, which supports smaller position-sizing adjustments for risk but also means the stock will likely lag in a sharp market rally; the maximum drawdown of -11.27% over the period is consistent with a low-beta defensive profile.

Beta

0.48

0.48x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-13.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$87-$118

Price range past year

Annual Return

+15.9%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodETR ReturnS&P 500
1m-5.7%-2.4%
3m-7.9%+1.0%
6m+2.4%+16.3%
1y+15.9%+14.3%
ytd+9.0%+10.6%

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ETR Fundamental Analysis

Entergy's revenue trajectory is growing at a solid clip for a regulated utility. Most recent quarterly revenue for Q1 2026 came in at $3.188 billion, up 11.97% year-over-year versus $2.847 billion in Q1 2025, extending a streak that saw Q4 2025 revenue of $2.959 billion top the prior-year $2.742 billion and Q3 2025 revenue of $3.812 billion exceed Q3 2024's $3.389 billion. The revenue mix is dominated by residential sales at $1.149 billion, followed by industrial at $934 million and commercial at $748 million, with the industrial segment particularly important given the Gulf Coast petrochemical and emerging data-center load. The consistent mid-to-high single-digit to low-double-digit growth reflects both rate-base expansion and rising volumes, and it underpins the bull case that Entergy is a regulated utility with a genuine growth engine rather than a bond proxy.

Profitability is healthy and improving on a sequential basis, though quarterly margins are volatile due to weather and cost timing. Q1 2026 net income was $390.8 million on a 12.26% net margin, up from $360.8 million and a 12.67% net margin in Q1 2025, while gross margin in the most recent quarter was 68.66% — though that figure benefits from a favorable cost-of-revenue classification and is not comparable to the 22.53% reported in Q4 2025 or the 35.16% in Q3 2025. The trailing valuation data show a net margin of 13.70%, an operating margin of 23.59%, and a gross margin of 29.91%, which are broadly in line with or slightly above typical regulated electric utility economics. The key takeaway is that Entergy is solidly profitable with stable, rate-regulated earnings, and the Q1 2026 EPS of $0.84 matched the prior-year quarter, suggesting earnings growth is currently tracking revenue growth rather than outpacing it.

Balance sheet and cash flow metrics reveal the classic utility capital-intensity profile. Debt-to-equity stands at 1.80, with a total-debt-to-capitalization ratio of 66.25% and long-term debt to capitalization of 64.23%, reflecting heavy reliance on debt financing for the rate base. Free cash flow is deeply negative at -$3.00 billion on a trailing basis, driven by Q1 2026 capital expenditures of $2.252 billion against operating cash flow of only $829 million, and the current ratio of 0.731 indicates thin short-term liquidity. ROE of 10.34% and ROA of 2.68% are respectable for a regulated utility but not exceptional, and the cash flow coverage ratio of just 0.024 highlights that internally generated cash covers only a small fraction of the debt and capex burden. The company funds this gap through debt issuance — Q1 2026 net cash from financing was $3.235 billion — which is sustainable only as long as regulators allow the invested capital to earn a fair return, making rate-case outcomes the single most important fundamental variable.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.2B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

+12.0%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

68.7%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-3.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Commercial
Governmental
Industrial
Other Electric
Residential
Sales for Resale
Electricity, US Regulated
Product and Service, Other

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Valuation Analysis: Is ETR Overvalued?

Because Entergy is solidly profitable with positive net income of $390.8 million in the most recent quarter and trailing EPS of $0.0434 (distorted by quarterly timing), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, supplemented by the more stable forward PE. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 23.22x and a forward PE of 20.64x, and the roughly 11% compression from trailing to forward multiple implies the market expects meaningful earnings growth — consistent with the consensus EPS estimate of $7.31 for the forward period. The PEG ratio of 0.38 is strikingly low, suggesting that when growth is factored in, Entergy screens as inexpensive relative to its earnings expansion, though utility PEG ratios should be interpreted cautiously given the regulated, low-beta nature of the earnings stream.

Relative to the broader utility sector, Entergy trades at a premium on most metrics. Its price-to-book of 2.38x and price-to-sales of 3.16x sit above the typical regulated electric utility range, and the EV/EBITDA of 11.68x is elevated versus the sector's historical 9-11x band, while the dividend yield of 2.67% is below the roughly 3.0-3.5% yield typical of large-cap regulated utilities. This premium is at least partially justified by Entergy's above-average growth profile — 11.97% revenue growth and the Meta data-center partnership — but it also means the stock has little valuation cushion if growth disappoints. The payout ratio of 61.61% is moderate for a utility and leaves room for continued dividend growth, though the negative free cash flow means the dividend is effectively funded by debt and equity issuance rather than internally generated cash.

Historically, Entergy's valuation has expanded significantly. The PE ratio has ranged from roughly 5.4x in Q4 2023 and 9.1x in Q3 2022 to 23.2x today, while price-to-book has climbed from around 1.41x in Q3 2023 to 2.38x currently, and price-to-sales has risen from roughly 5.4x in Q3 2023 to 3.16x on the current trailing basis (with quarterly historical PS readings as high as 16.06x in Q1 2026 due to revenue timing). The current 2.38x P/B is near the top of the multi-year band that has mostly ranged between 1.4x and 2.4x, indicating the market is pricing in optimistic expectations around rate-base growth and data-center demand. Investors are effectively paying a premium multiple for a utility, which leaves the stock vulnerable to de-rating if the growth narrative stalls.

PE

23.2x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 5x~54x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

11.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Entergy's financial and operational risks are significant, primarily driven by its capital-intensive business model and negative free cash flow. The company reported -$3.00 billion in trailing free cash flow, with Q1 2026 capex of $2.252 billion dwarfing operating cash flow of $829 million, forcing reliance on debt issuance (Q1 2026 net cash from financing was $3.235 billion). Debt-to-equity stands at 1.80, with total-debt-to-capitalization at 66.25%, and a current ratio of 0.731 indicates thin short-term liquidity. Additionally, revenue concentration in industrial sales ($934 million in Q1 2026) ties performance to Gulf Coast petrochemical and data-center demand, which could be volatile. The payout ratio of 61.61% is moderate, but the dividend is effectively funded by debt and equity issuance rather than internally generated cash, posing a risk if financing conditions tighten.

Market and competitive risks include valuation compression if growth disappoints, given the premium multiple (trailing PE of 23.22x, P/B of 2.38x, EV/EBITDA of 11.68x) relative to the sector's historical 9-11x EV/EBITDA band. The dividend yield of 2.67% is below the typical 3.0-3.5% for large-cap regulated utilities, leaving the stock vulnerable to de-rating if rate-case outcomes or data-center demand falter. With a beta of 0.481, ETR is less sensitive to market swings, but this also means it will likely lag in a sharp rally. Recent news highlights the Meta partnership as a growth driver, but also underscores the premium valuation, and competitive threats from other utilities vying for data-center load could pressure Entergy's growth narrative.

The worst-case scenario involves a combination of adverse regulatory decisions, delays in the Meta data-center buildout, and rising financing costs, which would compress earnings and cash flow. In this scenario, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $87.38, representing a 17% decline from the current price of $105.33, or even to the analyst low target of $91.00 (14% downside). A more severe outcome, such as a recession or a sharp increase in interest rates, could push the stock below $90, implying a loss of 15-20% from current levels. Given the maximum drawdown of -11.27% over the past period, a 15-20% drawdown is plausible in a risk-off environment, especially if the growth narrative unravels.

FAQ

The key risks include: 1) Financial risk: negative free cash flow of -$3.00 billion TTM and high debt-to-equity of 1.80, with a current ratio of 0.731 indicating thin liquidity; 2) Regulatory risk: adverse rate-case outcomes could limit returns on the Meta data-center investment and pressure earnings; 3) Market risk: premium valuation (trailing PE of 23.22x) could de-rate if growth disappoints, and the low beta of 0.481 means it may lag in a rally; 4) Execution risk: delays or cost overruns in the Meta project could undermine the growth narrative. These risks are ranked from highest to lowest severity, with financial and regulatory risks being the most immediate.

Our 12-month forecast for ETR includes three scenarios: Bull case (25% probability) with a target range of $123-$137, assuming successful execution of the Meta partnership and favorable rate cases; Base case (55% probability) with a target range of $115-$123, assuming steady growth and no major surprises; and Bear case (20% probability) with a target range of $87-$91, assuming regulatory setbacks or project delays. The base case is most likely, supported by the analyst average target of $123.03 and expected EPS of $7.31. The key assumption is that revenue growth remains in the 8-10% range and free cash flow improves. However, the wide target spread ($91-$137) reflects significant uncertainty.

ETR appears overvalued relative to its historical and sector averages. The trailing PE of 23.22x is above the utility sector's typical range, and the P/B of 2.38x is near the top of its multi-year band (1.4x-2.4x). The EV/EBITDA of 11.68x exceeds the sector's historical 9-11x, and the dividend yield of 2.67% is below the 3.0-3.5% typical for large-cap regulated utilities. However, the PEG ratio of 0.38 suggests the stock is inexpensive relative to its earnings growth, and the forward PE of 20.64x implies an 11% compression from trailing, reflecting expected EPS growth to $7.31. The market is pricing in optimistic expectations for rate-base growth and data-center demand, leaving little margin for error. Thus, while not egregiously overvalued, ETR is not a bargain at current levels.

Entergy offers a compelling growth story through its Meta data-center partnership, with 11.97% YoY revenue growth and a bullish analyst consensus (average target of $123.03, implying 16.8% upside). However, the stock trades at a premium valuation (trailing PE of 23.22x, P/B of 2.38x) and has negative free cash flow of -$3.00 billion, which increases risk. The low beta of 0.481 makes it a defensive holding, but the dividend yield of 2.67% is below the sector average. For long-term investors comfortable with regulatory and execution risks, ETR could be a good buy on dips, but near-term upside may be limited. We rate it a Hold, suggesting investors wait for a better entry point or clearer execution before committing.

ETR is more suitable for long-term investment, given its regulated utility business model, low beta of 0.481, and dividend yield of 2.67%. The company is in a growth phase with the Meta data-center partnership, which may take several years to fully materialize, and the negative free cash flow suggests near-term volatility. Short-term trading could be risky due to the stock's recent underperformance (down 5.20% over three months) and wide analyst target range. We recommend a minimum holding period of 2-3 years to allow for rate-base expansion and cash flow inflection. Income-focused investors may appreciate the dividend, but growth-oriented investors should monitor execution closely.