Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.

Based on a comprehensive review of EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON INC (EXPD), the analysis presents a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture.

Technical Perspective: The stock is experiencing a healthy pullback after a strong run. While down over the past month, its positive three-month performance and position well above its 52-week low suggest underlying strength. The current price offers a more attractive entry point than its recent peak.

Fundamental Strength: EXPD's fundamentals are robust. The company is growing revenue, expanding profit margins, and demonstrating excellent operational efficiency. Its debt-free balance sheet and strong cash flow provide significant financial stability and flexibility.

Valuation & Risk: The primary concern is valuation, particularly the high EV/EBITDA ratio, which prices in substantial future growth. The stock's moderate volatility also necessitates a tolerance for price swings. The lack of industry comparison metrics makes it difficult to gauge its relative expensiveness.

Buy Recommendation:

EXPD is a high-quality company with strong operational execution and a pristine balance sheet. The recent price weakness provides a better entry opportunity for a long-term investment. While the valuation is not cheap and requires belief in the company's growth trajectory, its fundamental strength makes it a compelling buy for investors seeking a well-managed leader in the logistics sector. *This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on a comprehensive analysis of EXPD, here is a 12-month outlook:

Overall Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic

The 12-month outlook for EXPD is cautiously optimistic, driven by its strong operational execution and pristine balance sheet. Key near-term catalysts include sustained growth in high-margin services and potential market share gains as it leverages its debt-free position to navigate economic uncertainty. The primary risk remains its elevated valuation (EV/EBITDA), which leaves the stock vulnerable to disappointment if global trade volumes soften or growth fails to meet high expectations. Given the lack of a consensus analyst target, a reasonable 12-month price range would be $160-$180, reflecting steady fundamental growth while acknowledging valuation constraints.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $150.70, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, EXPD has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

EXPD has demonstrated strong long-term performance despite recent weakness, with the stock remaining significantly above its 52-week low and delivering market-beating returns over the past three months.

The stock has experienced notable short-term pressure with an 8.53% decline over the past month, although its 5.59% three-month gain and 5.36% market outperformance indicate stronger intermediate-term momentum. With a beta of 1.128, EXPD exhibits moderately higher volatility than the broader market, which has contributed to both its recent decline and previous outperformance.

Currently trading at $148.55, EXPD sits approximately 61% above its 52-week low but 11% below its recent high, positioning it in the upper-middle range of its yearly price band. The recent pullback from near-peak levels suggests the stock is moving toward more neutral territory after approaching overbought conditions earlier this quarter.

Revenue & Profitability EXPD demonstrated sequential revenue growth from $2.65B to $2.89B in Q3 2025, with net profit margin improving from 6.92% to 7.68%. The company shows solid operational leverage as operating income ratio expanded to 9.95%, indicating effective cost management relative to growing revenue.

Financial Health The company maintains a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 1.79 and minimal debt, evidenced by a low debt ratio of 11.7%. Healthy operating cash flow coverage and substantial cash reserves provide financial flexibility, though the cash flow to debt ratio of 0.36 warrants monitoring of cash generation efficiency.

Operational Efficiency EXPD delivered respectable returns with ROE of 9.75% and ROCE of 10.54%, supported by an asset turnover of 0.61. The cash conversion cycle of 21 days demonstrates efficient working capital management, while fixed asset turnover of 2.88 indicates effective utilization of capital investments.

Based on the available metrics, EXPD appears moderately valued. The forward PE of 18.8 is more relevant than the trailing PE of 23.3 and suggests more reasonable earnings-based valuation. However, the extremely high EV/EBITDA of 51.5 indicates the market is pricing in significant growth expectations or that the company may carry substantial debt not reflected in the PE ratio, presenting a potential valuation concern.

A peer comparison cannot be conducted as industry average data is unavailable. This absence of contextual benchmarks makes it impossible to determine if EXPD's valuation multiples are high or low relative to its sector competitors. The analysis is therefore limited to an absolute assessment of the company's standalone metrics.

Volatility Risk: EXPD exhibits moderate volatility risk with a beta of 1.128, indicating it is slightly more volatile than the broader market. The stock's one-year maximum drawdown of -18.69% demonstrates a significant potential for capital erosion during market downturns, though this is not exceptionally severe for an equity. Investors should anticipate price swings that are marginally more pronounced than the overall market.

Other Risks: The absence of notable short interest suggests that there is not a significant bearish sentiment or identifiable short-term catalysts driving negative speculation against the stock. However, investors should still consider company-specific operational risks, such as exposure to global trade flows and fluctuations in freight volumes, which could impact performance. Liquidity is generally robust for a large-cap stock like this.