Expedia Group
EXPE
$267.11
+0.31%
Expedia Group is the world's second-largest online travel agency by bookings, offering services for lodging, air tickets, rental cars, cruises, and advertising revenue through brands like Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo. As a dominant platform in the travel services industry, it competes with Booking Holdings and Airbnb, leveraging its scale and brand portfolio to capture consumer travel demand. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain growth amid macroeconomic uncertainty and AI disruption fears, with recent news highlighting a cautious margin outlook from management and a new CFO appointment signaling strategic focus.…
EXPE
Expedia Group
$267.11
Related headlines
EXPE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Expedia Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $286.50 and implied upside of +7.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$286.50
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+7.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$230 - $409
Analyst target range
Expedia is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus leaning neutral to bullish. Recent ratings include 4 Buy ratings (Jefferies, Argus, BTIG) and 5 Hold/Neutral ratings (Wells Fargo, DA Davidson, Barclays, Susquehanna, Piper Sandler, UBS). The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS average of $34.274 and a forward P/E of 11.56x, the implied price target is approximately $396 (34.274 * 11.56). This would represent 48% upside from the current price of $267.11. However, the actual average target may differ; the data shows a wide range of EPS estimates from $33.49 to $35.77, suggesting uncertainty. The high target of $35.77 EPS implies a price of $413 (using the same forward multiple), while the low target of $33.49 implies $387. The wide spread in EPS estimates indicates low conviction among analysts, and the recent downgrades (e.g., UBS and Piper Sandler maintaining Neutral) reflect caution. The lack of a clear consensus target and the mixed ratings suggest that the stock is in a period of uncertainty, with bulls focusing on the growth story and bears concerned about margin pressure and macro risks. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings for confirmation of the growth trajectory.
Bulls vs Bears: EXPE Investment Factors
Expedia presents a mixed picture: strong free cash flow and a compelling forward P/E discount argue for upside, but a Q1 net loss, high leverage, and decelerating revenue growth temper enthusiasm. The bull case hinges on earnings recovery materializing as analysts expect, while the bear case focuses on margin pressure and macro risks. The single most important tension is whether the forward P/E discount reflects genuine earnings growth potential or masks underlying profitability challenges. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull case given the 48% implied upside, but the margin trajectory and revenue deceleration warrant close monitoring.
Bullish
- Forward P/E Discount Signals Earnings Rebound: The forward P/E of 11.56x is a steep discount to the trailing P/E of 27.45x, implying the market expects a sharp earnings recovery. If analysts' EPS estimate of $34.27 materializes, the stock offers 48% upside to an implied price of $396.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Expedia generated $4.686 billion in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, providing ample coverage for its $5.19 debt-to-equity ratio. This cash flow supports debt service and potential shareholder returns.
- Revenue Growth Despite Deceleration: Q1 2026 revenue grew 14.66% YoY to $3.426 billion, maintaining double-digit growth even as post-pandemic travel demand normalizes. The lodging segment, 80% of sales, continues to drive expansion.
- Analyst Upside Potential: With 4 Buy ratings and an average EPS estimate of $34.27, the implied price target of ~$396 represents 48% upside from the current $267.11. Even the low EPS estimate of $33.49 implies a target of $387.
Bearish
- Q1 Net Loss and Margin Pressure: Expedia reported a net loss of -$6 million in Q1 2026, compared to a $205 million profit in Q4 2025. Operating margin fell to 7.1% from 15.4% sequentially, driven by higher selling and marketing expenses of $2.058 billion.
- High Leverage and Liquidity Risk: The debt-to-equity ratio of 5.19 and current ratio of 0.73 indicate significant financial leverage and potential liquidity stress. While cash flow is strong, any downturn could strain debt servicing.
- Revenue Growth Deceleration Trend: Revenue growth slowed from 18.9% in Q4 2025 to 14.66% in Q1 2026, continuing a deceleration from 16.3% in Q3 2025. This trend suggests normalization and tougher comparables ahead.
- AI Disruption and Competitive Threats: Recent news highlights AI disruption fears hitting online travel stocks, with Booking Holdings cutting guidance due to the Hormuz crisis. Expedia's CFO also dialed down margin expectations, signaling caution.
EXPE Technical Analysis
Expedia's stock is in a recovery phase after a significant pullback, with a 1-year price change of +49.23% but still trading 12.1% below its 52-week high of $303.80. The current price of $267.11 sits at 62.8% of the 52-week range ($174.05–$303.80), indicating it has recovered from the lows but has not yet reclaimed peak levels. This positioning suggests the stock is in a rebuilding phase, with potential for further upside if momentum continues, but also risk of resistance near the highs. Short-term momentum is strong, with a 1-month price change of +12.71% and a 3-month change of +4.98%, showing accelerating gains in the near term. However, the 6-month change of -6.31% reveals that the stock has not fully recovered from the February selloff, creating a divergence between short-term strength and medium-term weakness. This pattern could signal a potential trend reversal if the recent rally sustains, or a temporary bounce within a larger downtrend if it fails. The 52-week low of $174.05 provides a key support level, while the 52-week high of $303.80 acts as major resistance. A breakout above $303.80 would signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $174.05 would indicate further downside. With a beta of 1.232, Expedia is 23.2% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning it amplifies market moves and requires careful risk management.
Beta
1.23
1.23x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-37.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$174-$304
Price range past year
Annual Return
+49.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EXPE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +12.7% | +0.6% |
| 3m | +5.0% | +6.3% |
| 6m | -6.3% | +9.1% |
| 1y | +49.2% | +20.9% |
| ytd | -5.6% | +10.7% |
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EXPE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is solid but decelerating: Q1 2026 revenue of $3.426 billion grew 14.66% YoY, down from the 18.9% growth in Q4 2025 and the 16.3% growth in Q3 2025. The lodging segment, which accounts for 80% of sales, generated $2.61 billion in Q1 2026, while air ticketing contributed $107 million. The deceleration suggests that post-pandemic travel demand is normalizing, and the company faces tougher comparisons. Investors should watch for whether growth stabilizes or continues to slow, as this will be critical for the investment thesis. Profitability is mixed: Q1 2026 net income was -$6 million (a loss), compared to $205 million profit in Q4 2025 and $959 million in Q3 2025. Gross margin remains high at 89.0%, but operating margin fell to 7.1% in Q1 2026 from 15.4% in Q4 2025, reflecting higher selling and marketing expenses ($2.058 billion vs. $1.909 billion in Q4). The company is profitable on a trailing twelve-month basis (net income TTM positive), but the Q1 loss highlights seasonal weakness and cost pressures. The balance sheet shows high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.19 and a current ratio of 0.73, indicating liquidity risk. However, free cash flow TTM is strong at $4.686 billion, and operating cash flow in Q1 2026 was $3.931 billion, providing ample coverage for debt service. ROE is extremely high at 100.8%, but this is inflated by high leverage; ROA of 5.8% is more moderate. The company's ability to generate cash is a key strength, but the high debt load warrants caution.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
89.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$4.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EXPE Overvalued?
Since net income is positive on a trailing basis (TTM net income is positive), we lead with the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 27.45x, while the forward P/E is 11.56x, a significant discount that implies the market expects strong earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that analysts anticipate a sharp earnings recovery, likely driven by margin expansion and revenue growth. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but typically for travel services, P/E ratios range from 15-25x), Expedia's trailing P/E of 27.45x appears elevated, but the forward P/E of 11.56x is attractive. Without explicit industry averages, we note that the stock trades at a premium on trailing earnings but a discount on forward earnings, indicating that the market is pricing in a rebound. Historically, Expedia's trailing P/E has ranged from 7x to 42x over the past five years. The current 27.45x is above the midpoint of this range, suggesting it is not at historical extremes. However, the forward P/E of 11.56x is near the lower end of the historical range, implying that if earnings materialize as expected, the stock could be undervalued. The P/S ratio of 2.41x is below the 5-year average of around 4x, further supporting a value-oriented view.
PE
27.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 7x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Expedia's high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.19 and current ratio of 0.73 expose it to liquidity risk, especially if cash flow weakens. The Q1 2026 net loss of -$6 million, despite $3.426 billion in revenue, highlights margin pressure from rising selling and marketing expenses ($2.058 billion). Operating margin fell to 7.1% from 15.4% in Q4 2025, indicating cost control challenges. While free cash flow of $4.686 billion provides a buffer, any sustained downturn could strain debt servicing and force balance sheet actions.
Market & Competitive Risks: Expedia's beta of 1.232 makes it 23.2% more volatile than the S&P 500, amplifying macro risks. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 27.45x, above the historical midpoint, leaving it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints. AI disruption fears and competitive pressure from Booking Holdings and Airbnb are intensifying, as evidenced by recent analyst downgrades and cautious margin guidance from management. The Hormuz crisis and TSA staffing issues add further macro headwinds.
Worst-Case Scenario: A combination of continued revenue deceleration, margin erosion, and macro shocks could drive the stock to its 52-week low of $174.05, representing a -35% decline from the current price of $267.11. This scenario would likely involve multiple earnings misses, analyst downgrades, and a recessionary environment that crushes travel demand. The historical max drawdown of -37.44% suggests such a decline is plausible.