Expedia Group
EXPE
$319.66
+2.44%
Expedia Group is a global online travel agency (OTA) that provides booking services for lodging, air tickets, rental cars, cruises, and other travel products, operating through brands such as Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo, and Trivago. As the world's second-largest OTA by bookings, it holds a strong competitive position in the travel services industry, leveraging its diverse brand portfolio and advertising revenue streams. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate a dynamic economic environment, with recent management commentary flagging cautious margin expectations for 2026, while the stock has shown resilience amid broader travel demand concerns and AI-driven disruption fears in the online travel sector.…
EXPE
Expedia Group
$319.66
Related headlines
EXPE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Expedia Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $293.71 and implied upside of -8.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$293.71
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-8.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$240 - $409
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $240.00 to a high of $409.00, with the high target implying a 38.8% upside from the current price, suggesting some analysts see significant potential for growth, possibly driven by AI transformation or margin expansion. The low target of $240.00 represents a -18.6% downside, reflecting concerns about margin compression or competitive pressures. The wide spread of $169 between the low and high targets indicates high uncertainty among analysts, which is consistent with the recent mixed institutional ratings, where some firms have maintained neutral stances while others remain bullish. Recent ratings actions show no major upgrades or downgrades, with most firms reiterating their existing positions, suggesting a stable but cautious outlook.
Bulls vs Bears: EXPE Investment Factors
Expedia presents a mixed picture: strong revenue growth and high gross margins are offset by cautious margin guidance and high leverage. The bull case is supported by accelerating growth and analyst optimism, while the bear case focuses on margin pressure and AI disruption. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the revenue acceleration and positive free cash flow, but the key tension is whether management's margin caution will materialize into actual margin compression, which would significantly impact the thesis.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Acceleration: Q1 2026 revenue grew 14.7% YoY to $3.426B, up from 6.3% growth in Q1 2025, indicating accelerating demand. This momentum is driven by the core lodging segment, which accounts for 80% of sales and generated $2.61B in Q1.
- High Analyst Upside Potential: The average analyst target of $291.31 is near the current price, but the high target of $409 implies 38.8% upside. With 35 analysts and a consensus 'buy' rating, there is significant optimism about future growth.
- Robust Stock Performance: EXPE has gained 63.5% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500's 18.2% gain. The stock is trading at 94.4% of its 52-week high, reflecting strong investor confidence and momentum.
- High Gross Margin: Gross margin stands at 90.1%, reflecting the asset-light OTA model with high scalability. This provides a strong foundation for profitability as revenue grows.
Bearish
- Cautious Margin Guidance: Management flagged cautious margin expectations for 2026, citing a 'dynamic' economy. This suggests potential operating margin compression, which could pressure earnings despite revenue growth.
- High Debt-to-Equity: Debt-to-equity ratio is 5.19, indicating high leverage. This increases financial risk, especially if interest rates remain elevated or cash flows weaken.
- AI Disruption Threat: Recent news highlights AI-driven disruption fears in online travel, with Booking Holdings cutting guidance due to the Hormuz crisis. This could impact EXPE's competitive position and growth prospects.
- High Valuation on PEG: PEG ratio of 2.77 suggests the stock is expensive relative to its growth rate. The trailing PE of 27.45x is above the market average, implying high expectations that may not be met.
EXPE Technical Analysis
Expedia's stock has demonstrated a robust long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +63.5%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.2% over the same period. The current price of $294.74 sits at 94.4% of its 52-week range (low of $174.05, high of $312.40), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, which reflects strong momentum but also potential overextension. The stock's beta of 1.23 suggests it is 23% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves.
Beta
1.25
1.25x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-37.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$182-$327
Price range past year
Annual Return
+75.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EXPE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +19.8% | +2.5% |
| 3m | +26.5% | +5.2% |
| 6m | +35.0% | +11.5% |
| 1y | +75.8% | +22.6% |
| ytd | +13.0% | +12.9% |
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EXPE Fundamental Analysis
Expedia's revenue trajectory shows solid growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $3.426 billion, up 14.7% year-over-year, accelerating from the 6.3% growth seen in Q1 2025. The company's lodging segment, which accounts for 80% of sales, generated $2.61 billion in Q1 2026, while air revenue contributed $107 million, indicating the core business remains the primary growth driver. However, the quarterly revenue trend has been uneven, with Q3 2025 peaking at $4.412 billion before declining to $3.547 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting seasonal patterns and potential demand softness.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
89.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$4.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EXPE Overvalued?
Given that Expedia's trailing twelve-month net income is positive (as evidenced by a trailing PE of 27.45), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE of 27.45x versus a forward PE of 12.87x implies the market expects significant earnings growth, with the forward multiple suggesting a 53% discount to trailing, indicating optimism about future profitability. The PEG ratio of 2.77x suggests the stock is not cheap relative to its growth rate, but the forward PE is more attractive when considering expected EPS growth.
PE
27.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 7x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are significant due to a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.19, indicating heavy leverage. This amplifies vulnerability to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The company's operating margin of 14.7% is relatively thin, and management's cautious 2026 margin guidance suggests potential compression, which could reduce profitability. Additionally, the current ratio of 0.73 indicates potential liquidity concerns, though strong free cash flow of $4.686B provides some buffer.