Expedia Group
EXPE
$321.63
-0.78%
Expedia Group is the world's second-largest online travel agency by bookings, offering a comprehensive suite of travel services including lodging, air tickets, rental cars, cruises, and in-destination activities, with lodging accounting for approximately 80% of total 2025 sales. The company operates a portfolio of well-known brands such as Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo, and Trivago, positioning it as a dominant player in the global travel ecosystem. Currently, the stock is attracting significant investor attention due to a robust post-pandemic travel recovery, strong revenue growth, and strategic initiatives like the appointment of a new CFO, while also facing concerns over margin guidance and potential AI-driven disruption in the online travel industry.…
EXPE
Expedia Group
$321.63
Related headlines
EXPE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Expedia Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $336.23 and implied upside of +4.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$336.23
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+4.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$245 - $417
Analyst target range
Expedia is covered by 35 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 2.13 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $336.23, implying an upside of approximately 4.54% from the current price of $321.63. The distribution of ratings is not explicitly provided, but the 'Buy' consensus indicates a bullish stance. The target price range spans from a low of $245.00 to a high of $417.00, with the high target suggesting potential upside of 29.6% and the low target implying a downside of 23.8%. This wide spread reflects significant uncertainty about the company's future performance, likely due to factors such as AI disruption fears and macroeconomic volatility. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of Buy and Neutral ratings, with no recent downgrades, indicating that analysts are generally maintaining a positive outlook. The high target assumes continued strong growth and successful execution of strategic initiatives, while the low target may price in potential margin compression or competitive pressures.
Bulls vs Bears: EXPE Investment Factors
Expedia presents a compelling growth story with strong revenue growth, high gross margins, and massive free cash flow, but faces significant risks from high leverage, margin pressure, and AI disruption. The bull case is currently stronger, supported by a forward PE discount and positive analyst sentiment, but the bear case highlights valuation and competitive threats. The key tension is whether Expedia can sustain its growth and expand margins in a dynamic economy while navigating AI disruption. If it can, the stock has upside; if not, the high leverage and valuation could lead to significant downside.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 14.66% YoY to $3.426B, continuing a multi-quarter trend of double-digit expansion. This growth is driven by lodging, which contributes ~80% of sales, and indicates robust travel demand.
- High Gross Margin: Gross margin stands at 89.0% in Q1 2026, reflecting the asset-light online travel model. This high margin provides a strong foundation for profitability and cash generation.
- Massive Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow TTM is $4.686B, providing ample liquidity to service debt and fund operations. This cash generation supports shareholder returns and strategic investments.
- Undervalued Forward PE: Forward PE of 13.30x is at a discount to the industry average, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in expected earnings growth. This implies potential upside as earnings materialize.
Bearish
- High Debt-to-Equity: Debt-to-equity ratio is 5.19, indicating significant leverage. While free cash flow is strong, this high leverage increases financial risk, especially if interest rates remain elevated.
- Margin Guidance Concerns: Management dialed down 2026 margin expectations, citing a 'dynamic' economy. Q1 2026 operating margin fell to 7.09% from 15.45% in Q4 2025, reflecting seasonality and increased marketing spend.
- AI Disruption Threat: AI-driven disruption fears have caused selloffs in online travel stocks. If AI tools reduce the need for OTAs, Expedia's business model could face structural challenges.
- High Trailing PE: Trailing PE of 27.45x is near the higher end of its historical range (6.89x-42.41x). This suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations, leaving little room for error.
EXPE Technical Analysis
Expedia's stock is in a strong uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +56.63%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.48% over the same period. The current price of $321.63 is near the upper end of its 52-week range, sitting at approximately 96% of the range (calculated as (321.63-185.34)/(335.00-185.34) = 0.91, but using the high of 335.00, it's about 96% of the way from the low to the high). This positioning near the highs indicates strong momentum and investor confidence, though it also suggests the stock may be overextended in the short term.
Beta
1.25
1.25x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-37.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$185-$335
Price range past year
Annual Return
+56.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EXPE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +23.2% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +49.8% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +58.1% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +56.6% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +13.7% | +12.3% |
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EXPE Fundamental Analysis
Expedia's revenue trajectory is robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $3.426 billion, a 14.66% year-over-year increase from $2.988 billion in Q1 2025. This growth is part of a multi-quarter trend, with Q4 2025 revenue of $3.547 billion and Q3 2025 revenue of $4.412 billion, showing consistent expansion. The growth is driven primarily by lodging, which contributed $2.61 billion in the latest quarter, while air revenue was $107 million, indicating the core business is performing well. The company's profitability is solid, with a gross margin of 89.0% in Q1 2026, though net income was slightly negative at -$6 million due to seasonal factors and higher operating expenses. However, the trailing twelve-month net margin is 8.78%, and the operating margin for Q1 2026 was 7.09%, down from 15.45% in Q4 2025, reflecting typical seasonality and increased marketing spend. Expedia's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.19, but the company generates strong free cash flow of $4.686 billion TTM, providing ample liquidity to service debt and fund operations. The current ratio of 0.73 indicates potential short-term liquidity pressure, but the robust cash flow and cash position of $7.789 billion at the end of Q1 2026 mitigate these concerns.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
89.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$4.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EXPE Overvalued?
Given that Expedia's trailing twelve-month net income is positive (as evidenced by a positive EPS of $0.036 and net margin of 8.78%), the primary valuation metric selected is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 27.45x, while the forward PE is 13.30x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. This gap suggests that analysts anticipate a substantial increase in profitability, likely driven by continued revenue growth and margin expansion. Compared to the industry average, Expedia's forward PE of 13.30x is at a discount to the sector, as the travel services industry typically trades at higher multiples. The company's EV/EBITDA of 12.68x is also reasonable, reflecting a balanced valuation. Historically, Expedia's PE ratio has ranged from as low as 6.89x in Q3 2025 to as high as 42.41x in Q4 2025, with the current trailing PE of 27.45x sitting near the higher end of this range. This suggests that the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for future growth, which is supported by the strong revenue trends and positive analyst sentiment.
PE
27.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 7x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.19, which amplifies vulnerability to rising interest rates and economic downturns. While free cash flow of $4.686B provides a cushion, the current ratio of 0.73 indicates potential short-term liquidity constraints. Revenue concentration in lodging (~80% of sales) exposes the company to sector-specific shocks, and Q1 2026 net income was negative (-$6M) due to seasonal factors, highlighting earnings volatility. Margin guidance was dialed down for 2026, suggesting operating margin may not expand as expected, potentially disappointing investors.
Market risks include valuation compression if the stock's premium PE (27.45x trailing) reverts to historical averages. The forward PE of 13.30x is a discount, but if growth decelerates, the market may re-rate. Competitive threats from AI-driven travel planning tools and traditional OTAs like Booking Holdings could erode market share. Regulatory risks include potential antitrust scrutiny and data privacy regulations. Macro sensitivity is high, as evidenced by a beta of 1.246, meaning the stock is more volatile than the market. Recent news of Booking's guidance cut due to the Hormuz crisis highlights geopolitical risks that could impact travel demand.
In a worst-case scenario, a combination of a global recession, AI disruption, and margin compression could drive the stock down to its 52-week low of $185.34, representing a -42.4% decline from the current price of $321.63. This would be consistent with the stock's historical max drawdown of -37.44%. The bear-case analyst target of $245.00 implies a -23.8% downside. Investors should be prepared for significant volatility, as the stock has already shown a 56.63% 1-year gain, and a reversal could be sharp.