Fastenal
FAST
$51.02
-0.62%
Fastenal Co is an industrial distributor that provides maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) supplies, including fasteners, cutting tools, safety equipment, and janitorial products, to a wide range of industrial customers. The company differentiates itself through a dense network of branches and on-site locations, where it embeds personnel and vending machines at customer facilities, positioning itself as a one-stop outsourcing partner for industrial supply needs. Currently, the investor narrative centers on Fastenal's growth acceleration, driven by its on-site expansion strategy and a rebound in industrial demand, as evidenced by a 14.7% year-over-year revenue increase in the latest quarter. The stock has also been buoyed by a strong year-to-date performance, with a 25.6% gain, reflecting optimism about its ability to capture market share in a recovering manufacturing environment.…
FAST
Fastenal
$51.02
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FAST Today?
Based on the analysis, I rate FAST as a Hold. The company has strong fundamentals with accelerating revenue growth and high profitability, but the stock is trading at a premium valuation with limited upside to analyst targets. The consensus rating is Hold with an average target of $47.84, implying a -5.8% downside, which does not support a Buy. The thesis is that Fastenal is a high-quality company, but the current price already reflects its strengths, leaving little room for appreciation.
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FAST 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral, reflecting the balance between strong operational performance and rich valuation. The stock's growth is impressive, but the market has already priced in much of this optimism. The consensus Hold rating and target price below the current level suggest limited upside. To upgrade to bullish, we would need to see sustained revenue growth above 15% and a pullback in valuation to more reasonable levels. Conversely, a downgrade to bearish would occur if growth decelerates or margins compress, leading to a de-rating.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Fastenal's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $48.07 and implied upside of -5.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$48.07
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-5.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$40 - $55
Analyst target range
Fastenal is covered by 13 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Hold' (mean rating of 2.72 on a scale where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $47.84, which implies a downside of -5.8% from the current price of $50.80. The distribution of ratings includes a mix of Hold and Outperform, with recent actions from firms like DA Davidson (Neutral) and Morgan Stanley (Equal Weight) indicating a cautious stance, while Baird maintains an Outperform rating. The consensus leans neutral, reflecting uncertainty about the stock's valuation at current levels.
Bulls vs Bears: FAST Investment Factors
Fastenal presents a mixed picture: strong operational performance with accelerating revenue growth and high profitability, but a rich valuation and cautious analyst sentiment. The bull case is supported by solid fundamentals and positive momentum, while the bear case hinges on valuation concerns and potential mean reversion. Currently, the bearish evidence is slightly stronger due to the stock trading above the average analyst target and the consensus Hold rating. The key tension is whether the accelerating growth can justify the premium valuation; if growth continues at double-digit rates, the stock may deserve its multiple, but any slowdown could trigger a significant de-rating.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q2 2026 revenue grew 14.7% YoY to $2.39B, up from 6.2% in Q2 2025, with sequential acceleration from $2.03B in Q4 2025 to $2.39B in Q2 2026. This momentum is driven by on-site expansion and industrial demand recovery.
- High Profitability and Margins: Operating margin improved to 21.0% in Q2 2026 from 20.1% in Q1 2026, with net margin at 16.0%. ROE stands at 31.9%, reflecting efficient capital deployment and strong earnings generation.
- Strong Balance Sheet: Debt-to-equity is only 0.11, and current ratio is 4.85, indicating ample liquidity and minimal financial risk. This provides flexibility for expansion and shareholder returns.
- Positive Price Momentum: Stock is up 25.6% YTD and 15.0% over 3 months, trading near its 52-week high of $50.90. The 1-month relative strength vs S&P 500 is +5.0%, showing near-term outperformance.
Bearish
- Rich Valuation: Trailing PE is 36.5x and forward PE is 36.4x, well above the market average. PEG ratio of 3.65 suggests the stock is expensive relative to its growth rate, leaving little room for error.
- Analyst Consensus is Hold: 13 analysts rate FAST a 'Hold' with a mean rating of 2.72 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Sell). The average target price of $47.84 implies a -5.8% downside from the current price of $50.80.
- Underperformance vs Market: Over the past year, FAST gained 8.6% while the S&P 500 rose 21.5%, resulting in a relative strength of -12.9%. This suggests the stock has lagged despite its absolute gains.
- Potential Overextension: Trading at 99.8% of its 52-week range, the stock may be overbought in the short term. The 6-month relative strength is -4.9%, indicating medium-term underperformance.
FAST Technical Analysis
Fastenal's stock is in a clear uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +8.6% and a current price of $50.80, which is near the top of its 52-week range (high $50.90, low $38.97). The stock is trading at 99.8% of its 52-week range, indicating strong momentum and bullish sentiment, though this positioning also suggests the stock may be overextended in the short term. The 6-month price change of +6.4% further confirms the upward trajectory, but the stock's relative strength versus the S&P 500 over the past year is negative at -12.9%, implying it has underperformed the broader market despite its absolute gains.
Beta
0.71
0.71x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$39-$53
Price range past year
Annual Return
+4.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FAST Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +12.5% | +2.9% |
| 3m | +17.9% | +5.0% |
| 6m | +9.9% | +13.9% |
| 1y | +4.8% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +26.2% | +13.8% |
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FAST Fundamental Analysis
Fastenal's revenue trajectory is robust, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026) reporting revenue of $2.3869 billion, a 14.7% year-over-year increase. This growth is accelerating, as evidenced by sequential quarterly revenue increases from $2.0274 billion in Q4 2025 to $2.2017 billion in Q1 2026 and then to $2.3869 billion in Q2 2026. The growth is broad-based, driven by strength in industrial end-markets and the expansion of on-site locations, which are outpacing traditional branch growth. The company's ability to consistently grow revenue at double-digit rates underscores its competitive position and the success of its customer-centric model.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.4B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
44.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is FAST Overvalued?
Given Fastenal's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 36.48x, while the forward PE is 36.40x, indicating that the market expects earnings to remain stable in the near term. The gap between trailing and forward PE is minimal, suggesting that analysts do not anticipate significant earnings growth or contraction in the coming year. This valuation is notably higher than the broader market, reflecting Fastenal's premium status as a high-quality industrial distributor with consistent profitability and growth.
PE
36.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 23x~42x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
25.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Fastenal's balance sheet is conservative with a debt-to-equity of 0.11 and a current ratio of 4.85, indicating low financial risk. However, the company's high payout ratio of 79.8% could strain dividend sustainability if earnings decline. Revenue concentration in industrial end-markets exposes the company to cyclical downturns; a recession could lead to a sharp drop in demand, as seen in past cycles. The company's growth is heavily dependent on the success of its on-site expansion strategy; if this model fails to scale or customer adoption slows, revenue growth could decelerate, impacting the premium valuation.