FIG
FIGFigma operates in the prepackaged software industry, providing a collaborative design platform.
As a dominant leader in UI/UX design, its core strength lies in its web-based, real-time collaboration tools.
Updated: January 14, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FIG Today?
Based on a comprehensive analysis of FIG, the stock presents a highly speculative and risky profile that does not currently warrant a buy recommendation for most investors.
Technical & Fundamental Outlook Technically, FIG is in a severe downtrend, having lost over 50% in three months and showing characteristics of an oversold, high-volatility asset. Fundamentally, this price action is justified by a dramatic deterioration in profitability, with the company swinging to a massive net loss of -$1.10 billion in its last quarter. While the balance sheet remains liquid with little debt, operational efficiency is poor, indicated by deeply negative returns on equity and assets.
Valuation & Risk Assessment Valuation metrics are alarming, as the company trades at a significant premium to sales and book value despite having no earnings, suggesting the stock is expensive relative to its current financial reality. The extreme risk is underscored by a deeply negative beta of -3.80, meaning the stock has historically moved sharply opposite the broader market, amplifying losses during positive periods and leading to a maximum drawdown of over 72% in the past year.
Recommendation: HOLD / AVOID Given the combination of persistent selling pressure, severe operational losses, a premium valuation without profits, and extreme volatility risk, FIG is not worth buying at this time. Investors should avoid this stock until there are clear signs of a fundamental turnaround, such as a credible path back to profitability and stabilization in its price action. The current risk of continued capital depreciation outweighs any potential for a near-term rebound.
FIG 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Based on the comprehensive analysis provided, here is a 12-month outlook for FIG:
12-Month Outlook for FIG
The 12-month outlook for FIG is decidedly negative, with the primary challenge being a credible operational turnaround. The key potential catalyst is any concrete evidence of the company stemming its severe financial losses and articulating a viable path back to profitability. However, the overwhelming risks dominate the outlook, including the continuation of massive quarterly losses, the stock's extreme negative beta that could lead to further declines in a stable or rising market, and its expensive valuation despite the absence of earnings. Given the lack of an analyst target price and the depth of its fundamental issues, a realistic target price range is difficult to establish, but the current risk profile suggests a high probability of further price erosion from the current level of $33.56.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about FIG's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $32.36, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: FIG Investment Factors
Overall, FIG has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- New Product Momentum: Recent products resonating with customers, suggesting near-term upside potential.
- Recent Price Recovery: Stock up 7% in past day and 15% over past month showing bounce.
- Fundamental Strength: Company remains fundamentally strong despite recent price pressure.
- AI Product Expansion: Expanding AI-powered product lineup provides growth opportunities.
Bearish
- Sharp Price Decline: Stock down 56% since IPO and 42% after overvaluation warning.
- Growth Concerns: Slowing growth, stiff competition, and margin pressure weighing on performance.
- IPO Hype Fallout: Excessive IPO hype and lock-up expirations have pressured shares below $40.
- Analyst Pressure: Goldman Sachs coverage initiation preceded 7% drop, approaching 52-week low.
- Recent Trading Pressure: Stock down 10% today with high $323M trading volume indicating selling pressure.
FIG Technical Analysis
FIG has demonstrated exceptionally weak performance, declining sharply across all measured timeframes amid extreme volatility. The stock's negative beta indicates it moves inversely to market trends, though this characteristic has not prevented substantial losses recently.
The stock has suffered severe short-term declines, dropping 13.26% over one month and 50.6% over three months. It has dramatically underperformed the market by 53.97% during this period, reflecting significant investor pessimism and selling pressure.
Currently trading at $33.56, FIG sits approximately 76.5% below its 52-week high but substantially above its 52-week low. Despite this partial recovery from the lows, the stock appears oversold given the magnitude and persistence of recent declines.
| Period | FIG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -10.3% | +1.3% |
| 3m | -47.0% | +5.7% |
| 6m | +43.1% | +10.6% |
| 1y | +53.5% | +16.5% |
| ytd | -14.0% | +1.1% |
FIG Fundamental Analysis
Revenue & Profitability
FIG's revenue showed sequential growth from $249.6 million in Q2 to $274.2 million in Q3 2025, but profitability deteriorated sharply. The gross profit margin remained healthy at 69.4% in Q3, yet operating income swung to a significant loss of -$1.14 billion, resulting in a net loss of -$1.10 billion and a negative net profit margin of -400%. This dramatic decline was primarily driven by substantial increases in operating expenses, particularly R&D and SG&A costs, which overwhelmed revenue growth.
Financial Health
The company maintains a strong liquidity position with current and quick ratios of 2.93, indicating good short-term financial flexibility. FIG shows minimal leverage with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 4.4% and debt ratio of 2.9%, suggesting conservative financing. However, the negative operating cash flow coverage ratio of 0.84 raises concerns about the company's ability to service obligations from operating activities despite its solid balance sheet structure.
Operational Efficiency
FIG's operational metrics reveal significant challenges, with return on equity deeply negative at -79% and return on assets at -53%, indicating poor capital allocation efficiency. The asset turnover ratio of 0.13 suggests inefficient utilization of company assets to generate revenue. The extended cash conversion cycle of 37 days, driven by high days sales outstanding of 51 days, points to working capital management issues that are compounding the company's operational inefficiencies.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Level: The stock shows concerning valuation metrics with negative PE ratios (-10.39 TTM, -5.82 forward) and negative EV/EBITDA (-23.01), indicating the company is currently unprofitable. Significant premium valuations are evident in the elevated PB ratio of 12.99 and PS ratio of 17.9, suggesting the market is pricing this stock well above its current book value and revenue base despite the lack of earnings.
Peer Comparison: Without industry average data available for comparison, it's challenging to contextualize these valuation metrics against sector norms. The negative earnings multiples combined with high price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios suggest this company operates in a specialized niche or growth-focused sector where traditional profitability metrics may be less emphasized by investors.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility Risk
FIG exhibits extremely high volatility risk, as evidenced by its deeply negative beta of -3.80. This indicates the stock has historically moved sharply in the opposite direction of the broader market, amplifying losses during market upturns and creating significant unpredictability. This risk is starkly confirmed by the stock's maximum drawdown of -72.49% over the past year, representing severe capital depreciation that would test investor risk tolerance.
Other Risks
While the absence of reported short interest eliminates one source of downward selling pressure, this lack of data could also signal very low trading activity or analyst coverage, potentially leading to liquidity risk. The combination of extreme negative beta and catastrophic drawdown suggests underlying fundamental or sector-specific issues that are not captured by traditional short interest metrics, posing a substantial risk to capital.
FAQs
Bearish - FIG presents significant risks despite trading well below its 52-week high.
Core Reasons: 1) Severe financial deterioration with a -400% net profit margin and massive operating losses 2) Extreme volatility risk evidenced by a -3.80 beta and 72.5% maximum drawdown 3) Unanimous analyst pessimism with all 11 covering analysts rating it "sell"
Suitable Investor Types: Only speculative traders comfortable with extreme risk; unsuitable for most long-term, value, or conservative investors.
The stock's high valuation multiples despite negative earnings, combined with operational inefficiencies and substantial recent declines, suggest continued pressure outweighs any near-term bounce potential.
Based on the provided data, FIG is overvalued.
The stock trades at an extreme premium relative to its fundamentals, with a Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 17.9 and a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 12.99. These metrics are exceptionally high and signal that the market price is not supported by the company's current revenue or asset base. The negative PE ratios confirm the company is unprofitable, and key efficiency metrics like a -79% Return on Equity and a -53% Return on Assets reveal severe operational struggles.
The primary reason for this overvaluation appears to be speculative growth expectations, as the company is sacrificing profitability (evidenced by a -400% net profit margin) for revenue expansion. However, given the catastrophic losses and poor operational efficiency, the current valuation metrics are not justified by the company's financial performance.
Based on the analysis provided, here are the key risks of holding FIG stock, ordered by importance:
1. Severe Profitability and Operational Crisis: The company is experiencing catastrophic operating losses (-$1.14B in Q3) and deeply negative returns on equity (-79%), indicating a fundamental breakdown in its business model and capital efficiency. 2. Extreme Volatility and Market Disconnect: The stock's deeply negative beta (-3.80) and massive maximum drawdown (-72.49%) expose investors to amplified, unpredictable losses that are inversely correlated with general market trends. 3. Critical Cash Flow Deficiency: Despite a strong balance sheet, the negative operating cash flow coverage ratio (0.84) signals an inability to fund operations and obligations from core business activities, raising immediate liquidity concerns. 4. Persistent Weak Performance and Investor Pessimism: The stock's dramatic underperformance (-50.6% over 3 months) and significant decline from its 52-week high reflect a severe loss of investor confidence that may be difficult to reverse.
Of course. Here is the professional stock forecast for FIG through 2026.
FIG Stock Forecast through 2026
Based on the provided data, the forecast for FIG through 2026 is extremely challenging.
1. Target Price Range: * Base Case (2026): $15 - $25. This scenario assumes continued operational struggles, significant cash burn, and an inability to articulate a credible turnaround plan, leading to further de-rating. * Bull Case (2026): $40 - $55. This optimistic scenario requires a successful operational overhaul, a drastic reduction in operating expenses, and a clear path to achieving sustainable profitability, which would rebuild investor confidence.
2. Key Growth Drivers: * Radical Cost Restructuring: The primary driver would be a successful plan to slash the runaway R&D and SG&A expenses that caused the massive operating loss. * Path to Profitability: A credible, detailed strategy from management to stem losses and return the company to positive net income, likely involving a strategic pivot or divestiture of unprofitable segments. * Improved Capital Efficiency: Demonstrating a tangible improvement in asset turnover and returns on equity and assets, showing the company can effectively utilize its resources.
3. Main Assumptions: * The company's severe operational inefficiencies and cash burn continue in the near term. * Macroeconomic conditions do not deteriorate further, which would add pressure. * Management undertakes significant and painful restructuring efforts.
4. Uncertainty of the Forecast: This forecast carries exceptionally high uncertainty. The company's deep fundamental issues, including a -400% net profit margin and negative cash flow, make any projection highly speculative. The stock's performance is entirely dependent on a successful turnaround, which is not guaranteed.
In summary, FIG's 2026 outlook is perilous and hinges entirely on a successful corporate turnaround. Without evidence of a viable path to profitability, the risk of further substantial price declines is high. The bull case is contingent on dramatic operational improvements that have not yet been demonstrated.