FIVE

Five Below

$234.14

-1.12%
Sep 18, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Five Below, Inc. is a specialty value retailer operating in the Consumer Cyclical sector, offering a broad assortment of trend-right merchandise — including select brands and licensed products across categories such as Leisure, Fashion and Home, and Party and Snack — predominantly priced at or below $5, through more than 1,700 physical stores, its e-commerce website and mobile app, and third-party on-demand delivery platforms. The company occupies a distinct niche at the extreme value end of specialty retail, competing on a treasure-hunt shopping experience that resonates with its core demographic of tweens, teens, and value-conscious families, while increasingly broadening its appeal to a wider consumer base. The current investor narrative centers on a dramatic turnaround under CEO Winnie Park, whose merchandising and operational overhaul has driven revenue growth above 30% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, with the stock up over 50% in the past year. However, this bullish execution story is being actively debated against a backdrop of tariff-related cost pressures, consumer spending anxiety, and a sharp post-earnings selloff in June 2026 that raised questions about whether the rally has run ahead of fundamentals. The tension between strong reported results and forward-looking macro concerns — including stagflation fears and a rotation out of growth-oriented retail names — defines the current debate around FIVE.

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BobbyInvestment Opinion: Should I buy FIVE Today?

The synthesized recommendation is Buy, anchored by the analyst consensus rating of Buy (mean 1.72) and an average target price of $310.95, implying 32.8% upside. The core thesis is that Five Below's turnaround under CEO Winnie Park is delivering exceptional revenue growth (32.46% YoY) and margin expansion, yet the stock trades at a reasonable forward PE of 21.16x with a PEG of 0.71, offering an attractive risk/reward for growth-oriented investors. The recent pullback from the 52-week high of $263.88 provides a more favorable entry point.

Supporting evidence includes: 1) Revenue growth of 32.46% in Q1 FY2026, far outpacing typical specialty retail growth of 3-6%; 2) Operating margin expansion to 12.0% from 5.2%, demonstrating strong operating leverage; 3) Robust free cash flow of $505.3 million TTM, with a FCF yield of 4.8%; 4) A healthy balance sheet with $638.9 million in cash and a current ratio of 2.01; and 5) The forward PE of 21.16x is below the sector average of 18-25x, while the PEG of 0.71 suggests undervaluation relative to growth. The stock's 1-year return of 50.63% versus the S&P 500's 15.01% reflects its outperformance, but the recent 3.28% monthly decline may offer a buying opportunity.

The biggest risks that could invalidate this thesis are: 1) A sustained deceleration in revenue growth below 15%, which would challenge the premium valuation; 2) Gross margin compression due to tariff or inflationary pressures, as the 33.25% gross margin leaves little room for error; and 3) A broader consumer discretionary slowdown that reduces store traffic. The rating would upgrade to Strong Buy if the stock pulls back to the $200-$210 range (forward PE ~15x) while maintaining growth above 25%, or downgrade to Hold if revenue growth falls below 15% or operating margins contract below 8%. Relative to its history and peers, FIVE appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued, given the growth profile and the PEG ratio below 1.0.

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FIVE 12-Month Price Forecast

Five Below presents a compelling growth-at-a-reasonable-price opportunity, with a successful turnaround driving exceptional revenue growth and margin expansion. The forward PE of 21.16x and PEG of 0.71 indicate the stock is not overvalued relative to its growth trajectory, while the 32.8% upside to analyst targets offers attractive return potential. However, the recent post-earnings selloff and macro headwinds (tariffs, stagflation) introduce uncertainty, warranting a medium confidence level. The bull case is supported by strong execution and a healthy balance sheet, but the bear case risks are real, particularly if consumer spending weakens. I would upgrade to high confidence if Q2 FY2026 results show sustained revenue growth above 25% and stable gross margins, and downgrade to neutral if growth falls below 15% or margins contract significantly.

Historical Price
Current Price $234.14
Average Target $282.00
High Target $420.00
Low Target $137.00

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Five Below's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $310.95 and implied upside of +32.8% versus the current price.

Average Target

$310.95

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+32.8%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$254 - $420

Analyst target range

Five Below is covered by 21 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of "Buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.72 (on a scale where 1.0 is Strong Buy and 5.0 is Strong Sell), indicating a clearly bullish consensus. The average analyst target price is $310.95, which implies approximately 32.8% upside from the current price of $234.14. The consensus EPS estimate of $14.13 for the forward period, combined with the estimated average revenue of $7.74 billion, suggests analysts are modeling continued strong top-line momentum and significant margin expansion. The bullish tilt is notable given that the stock has already appreciated over 50% in the past year, suggesting analysts see further runway ahead.

The target price range spans from a low of $254.00 to a high of $420.00, representing a spread of $166.00, or approximately 65% of the average target — a relatively wide range that signals meaningful uncertainty about the company's trajectory. The low target of $254.00 implies a modest 8.5% upside and likely assumes conservative consumer spending, tariff-related margin pressure, and a normalization of the exceptional growth rates seen in recent quarters. The high target of $420.00 implies a 79.4% upside and likely prices in sustained comparable-store sales growth, successful new store openings, margin expansion from operating leverage, and multiple expansion as the market gains confidence in the durability of the turnaround. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of actions: Mizuho upgraded to Outperform from Neutral in July 2026, while Wolfe Research downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform in June 2026, reflecting divergent views on valuation and growth sustainability. The concentration of ratings actions around the June 2026 earnings release, with most firms maintaining existing ratings, suggests the analyst community is in a wait-and-see mode regarding the next few quarters of execution.

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Bulls vs Bears: FIVE Investment Factors

The bull case for Five Below rests on a genuine operational turnaround, with revenue accelerating to 32.46% YoY, operating margins doubling, and a healthy balance sheet generating $505 million in free cash flow. The bear case centers on forward-looking risks: a 12% post-earnings selloff despite strong results, tariff and stagflation pressures, and a valuation that, while reasonable on a PEG basis (0.71), leaves little room for error. Currently, the bull evidence is stronger on reported fundamentals, but the bear case has momentum in market sentiment, as reflected in the recent 3.28% monthly decline and -2.32% relative underperformance. The single most important tension is whether the exceptional growth rates are sustainable or merely a cyclical rebound; if revenue growth normalizes toward single digits, the stock's premium multiples could compress sharply, but if the turnaround proves durable, the 32.8% upside to analyst targets is achievable.

Bullish

  • Revenue growth accelerating to 32.5% YoY: Q1 FY2026 revenue of $1.286 billion grew 32.46% year-over-year, a dramatic acceleration from the single-digit growth seen in Q2 and Q3 FY2025. This multi-quarter reacceleration, confirmed by Q4 FY2026's 24.3% growth, suggests the turnaround under CEO Winnie Park is gaining momentum rather than fading.
  • Operating leverage driving margin expansion: Operating margin expanded to 12.0% in Q1 FY2026 from 5.2% a year earlier, while gross margin remained stable at 33.25%. This demonstrates that profit growth is being driven by SG&A leverage on a larger revenue base, a sustainable source of earnings power as the company scales.
  • Attractive forward valuation with PEG of 0.71: The forward PE of 21.16x is reasonable for a retailer growing revenue at 32%, and the PEG ratio of 0.71 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate. The trailing PE of 29.44x is well below historical peak multiples of 59.57x, indicating valuation has compressed even as the stock price rose.
  • Strong balance sheet and free cash flow: With a current ratio of 2.01, debt-to-equity of 0.93, and $505.3 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, Five Below is self-funding its expansion. The $638.9 million cash position provides ample liquidity to navigate tariff pressures and invest in growth without external financing.

Bearish

  • Post-earnings selloff signals forward-looking concerns: Despite reporting over 30% sales growth, FIVE shares fell 12% following its June 2026 earnings release, highlighting a disconnect between strong execution and investor anxiety over consumer spending and tariffs. This suggests the market is pricing in future headwinds that may not yet be reflected in reported results.
  • Tariff and stagflation risks threaten margins: The company faces potential cost pressures from Trump-era tariffs, and broader stagflation fears (surging oil prices, hawkish Fed) could compress consumer discretionary spending. While Q4 FY2026 showed tariffs were manageable, a re-escalation or prolonged inflationary environment could pressure the 33% gross margin.
  • Recent momentum deceleration and relative underperformance: The stock is down 3.28% over the past month and has underperformed the S&P 500 by 2.32 percentage points, while the 6-month relative strength is -14.49 percentage points. This recent weakness, despite a strong 1-year return of 50.63%, suggests the rally may be losing steam.
  • Wide analyst target range signals uncertainty: The target price range spans from $254 to $420, a spread of $166 or 65% of the average target, indicating significant disagreement about the company's trajectory. Recent rating actions are mixed, with Mizuho upgrading in July 2026 but Wolfe Research downgrading in June 2026, reflecting divergent views on valuation and growth sustainability.

FIVE Technical Analysis

FIVE is in a sustained uptrend on a trailing twelve-month basis, with a 1-year price change of +50.63% that dramatically outpaces the S&P 500's +15.01% over the same period, yielding a relative strength of +35.62 percentage points. At a current price of $234.14, the stock is trading at approximately 76.4% of its 52-week range (low of $137.77 to high of $263.88), positioning it in the upper quartile of its annual band but still roughly 11.3% below its 52-week high. This positioning suggests the stock retains meaningful momentum characteristics without being at an extreme overextension, leaving room for either a breakout to new highs or a consolidation phase depending on near-term catalysts. The 52-week low of $137.77 represents a 41.2% decline from current levels, underscoring the substantial recovery the stock has staged over the past year.

Short-term momentum has decelerated notably, with a 1-month price change of -3.28% and a 3-month change of +20.65%, creating a divergence between the still-positive intermediate trend and the recently negative near-term trajectory. The 1-month relative strength versus SPY is -2.32 percentage points, meaning FIVE has underperformed the broader market by that margin over the past month, even as its 3-month relative strength remains a robust +18.65 percentage points. This pattern — strong 3-month gains followed by a modest 1-month pullback — is characteristic of a healthy consolidation within an uptrend rather than a trend reversal, particularly given that the 6-month change of +2.95% is positive but modest, indicating the bulk of recent gains were concentrated in the March-to-August window. The stock's recent peak of $262.72 on August 24, 2026, followed by a pullback to $234.14, represents a 10.9% decline from that high, suggesting profit-taking pressure after a sharp summer rally.

Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $137.77, with a more immediate support zone likely forming around the $220-$225 area where the stock consolidated in late July and early August 2026. Resistance is clearly defined at the 52-week high of $263.88, and a breakout above this level would signal renewed bullish conviction and potentially open the door to new all-time highs. Conversely, a breakdown below the $220 support zone could accelerate selling toward the $190-$200 range, which served as a consolidation floor in June and July 2026. With a beta of 0.989, FIVE's volatility is essentially in line with the broader market, meaning position sizing does not require significant adjustment relative to a market-cap-weighted benchmark, though the stock's maximum drawdown of -28.85% over the observed period highlights that it is not immune to sharp corrections.

Beta

0.99

0.99x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-28.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$138-$264

Price range past year

Annual Return

+50.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodFIVE ReturnS&P 500
1m-3.3%-0.5%
3m+20.7%+2.3%
6m+3.0%+16.6%
1y+50.6%+14.8%
ytd+21.0%+11.7%

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FIVE Fundamental Analysis

Five Below's revenue trajectory is showing powerful acceleration, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2026, ended May 2, 2026) delivering $1.286 billion in revenue, representing 32.46% year-over-year growth from the $970.5 million reported in Q1 FY2025. This marks a dramatic inflection from the prior-year quarterly cadence, where Q2 FY2025 revenue of $1.027 billion grew modestly and Q3 FY2025 revenue of $1.038 billion reflected a similar single-digit pace. The Q4 FY2026 quarter (ended January 31, 2026) posted $1.728 billion in revenue, up 24.3% from $1.391 billion in Q4 FY2025, confirming that the acceleration is not a one-quarter anomaly but part of a multi-quarter reacceleration trend. By segment, the Leisure category is the largest contributor at $620.9 million, followed by Fashion and Home at $352.6 million and Party and Snack at $312.1 million, with the broad-based strength across all three segments suggesting the turnaround is merchandise-driven rather than reliant on a single category.

Profitability has expanded meaningfully, with Q1 FY2026 net income of $123.1 million translating to a 9.57% net margin, up from $41.1 million and a 4.24% net margin in the year-ago quarter — a more than doubling of the bottom line. Gross margin in Q1 FY2026 came in at 33.25%, relatively stable versus the 33.37% recorded in Q1 FY2025, indicating that the profit expansion is being driven primarily by operating leverage on higher sales rather than gross margin expansion. Operating income surged to $154.2 million in Q1 FY2026 from $50.8 million a year earlier, with the operating margin expanding to 12.0% from 5.2%, reflecting strong SG&A leverage as the company's fixed cost base is spread over a much larger revenue base. The Q4 FY2026 quarter was even more impressive, with net income of $238.2 million on a 13.78% net margin and a 37.49% gross margin, demonstrating the seasonal earnings power of the model at scale.

Five Below's balance sheet and cash flow profile are solid, with a current ratio of 2.01 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.93, indicating adequate liquidity and moderate leverage. The company generated $505.3 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow and $227.2 million in operating cash flow in Q1 FY2026 alone, with capital expenditures of only $37.2 million, yielding a quarterly FCF of $190.0 million. Return on equity stands at 16.35% and return on assets at 7.84%, reflecting efficient capital deployment, while the cash position of $638.9 million at quarter-end provides ample liquidity to fund store growth and working capital needs without external financing. The FCF yield of approximately 4.8% (based on $505.3 million FCF against a $10.57 billion market cap) is reasonable for a growth-oriented retailer, and the company's ability to self-fund expansion while maintaining a healthy cash buffer underscores its financial resilience.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.3B

2026-05

Revenue YoY Growth

+32.5%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

33.3%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$505269000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Fashion And Home
Leisure
Party And Snack

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Valuation Analysis: Is FIVE Overvalued?

Because Five Below is profitable — with trailing twelve-month net income clearly positive and Q1 FY2026 net income of $123.1 million — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary valuation metric. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 29.44x and a forward PE of 21.16x, with the substantial gap between these two figures implying that the market expects significant earnings growth over the next twelve months. This expectation is corroborated by the consensus EPS estimate of $14.13 for the forward period, which would represent a dramatic increase from the trailing EPS of $0.034 (a figure distorted by the low-base effect of a weak prior-year comparison period), and the PEG ratio of 0.71 suggests the stock is reasonably priced relative to its expected growth rate.

On a peer comparison basis, FIVE's trailing PE of 29.44x and forward PE of 21.16x compare favorably to the specialty retail sector, where many peers trade at forward multiples in the 18x-25x range. The PS ratio of 2.22x and EV/Sales of 2.61x are moderate for a retailer with 32% revenue growth, and the EV/EBITDA of 17.67x is elevated but justifiable given the company's margin expansion trajectory. The PB ratio of 4.82x reflects the asset-light nature of the retail model and the premium the market assigns to the company's growth prospects, while the price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 18.03x is attractive relative to the broader market. The premium embedded in these multiples appears justified by FIVE's superior growth profile — 32.46% revenue growth versus typical specialty retail growth of 3-6% — and its improving profitability metrics.

From a historical context perspective, FIVE's current PE of 29.44x sits well below its historical peak multiples, which reached 59.57x in Q3 FY2025 and 42.68x in Q2 FY2025 during periods of depressed earnings, but above the 11.09x recorded in Q4 FY2025 when earnings were seasonally peak. The PS ratio of 2.22x is notably below the 9.91x recorded in Q1 FY2026 and the 6.12x in Q4 FY2025, reflecting the substantial earnings recovery that has brought the multiple down even as the stock price has risen. This dynamic — rising price accompanied by falling PS and PE multiples — is a hallmark of a fundamental recovery story where earnings growth is outpacing stock price appreciation, suggesting the valuation remains reasonable despite the strong price performance.

PE

29.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 7x~129x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

17.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Five Below's financial risks are moderate but not negligible. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.93 and current ratio of 2.01 indicate a stable balance sheet, but the company's gross margin of 33.25% is relatively thin for retail, leaving limited buffer against cost inflation. Tariff-related pressures could erode this margin, as evidenced by the June 2026 selloff despite 32.46% revenue growth. Additionally, the trailing PE of 29.44x and forward PE of 21.16x rely on the consensus EPS estimate of $14.13, which assumes significant earnings growth; any shortfall could trigger a sharp re-rating. The company's earnings volatility is also notable, with quarterly EPS swinging from $0.03 in Q3 FY2024 to $4.32 in Q4 FY2026, reflecting seasonal and turnaround-related fluctuations.

Market and competitive risks are significant given the macro backdrop. With a beta of 0.989, FIVE is highly correlated with the broader market, making it vulnerable to sector rotation and consumer discretionary weakness. The recent rotation out of growth-oriented retail names, highlighted by the June 2026 market selloff and stagflation fears, poses a direct threat. Competitive pressures from other value retailers and e-commerce giants could limit pricing power, while the company's niche focus on extreme value ($5 and below) may constrain its ability to pass through cost increases. Regulatory risks, such as changes to trade policies or tariffs, remain a wildcard, as evidenced by the March 2026 news that Five Below successfully managed Trump-era tariffs but could face renewed challenges.

In a worst-case scenario, a combination of consumer spending collapse, tariff escalation, and margin compression could drive the stock toward its 52-week low of $137.77, representing a 41.2% decline from the current price of $234.14. The analyst low target of $254 implies only 8.5% upside, but in a severe downturn, the stock could test the June 2026 lows around $176, a 24.8% drop. The maximum drawdown of -28.85% over the observed period underscores the potential for sharp corrections. If revenue growth decelerates below 10% and operating margins revert to 5%, the stock could fall to the $150-$170 range, a loss of 27-36% from current levels.

FAQ

The key risks for FIVE, ranked by severity, are: 1) Consumer spending risk: A stagflationary environment or recession could reduce discretionary spending, impacting revenue growth which is currently 32.46% YoY; 2) Margin compression risk: Tariff escalation or cost inflation could erode the 33.25% gross margin, as seen in the June 2026 selloff despite strong sales; 3) Valuation risk: The stock trades at a forward PE of 21.16x and EV/EBITDA of 17.67x, leaving room for multiple contraction if growth decelerates; 4) Competitive risk: Intense competition in value retail could limit pricing power and market share gains. The maximum drawdown of -28.85% highlights the potential for sharp corrections.

The 12-month forecast includes three scenarios: Bull case (30% probability) targets $310-$420, assuming revenue growth above 25% and successful tariff mitigation; Base case (50% probability) targets $254-$310, assuming growth moderates to 15-20% and margins stabilize; Bear case (20% probability) targets $137-$254, assuming a consumer slowdown and margin compression. The base case is most likely, with a target of $310.95 (analyst average), implying 32.8% upside. The key assumption is that revenue growth remains above 15% and gross margins hold above 33%, allowing earnings to grow and justify the current valuation.

FIVE appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued. The trailing PE of 29.44x is above the specialty retail average, but the forward PE of 21.16x is in line with peers, and the PEG ratio of 0.71 indicates undervaluation relative to growth. The PS ratio of 2.22x is moderate for a retailer growing revenue at 32.46%, and the EV/EBITDA of 17.67x is elevated but justified by margin expansion. Compared to its own history, the current PE is well below the peak of 59.57x in Q3 FY2025, and the PS ratio has compressed from 9.91x to 2.22x, reflecting earnings recovery. The market is pricing in continued strong growth, but the valuation does not appear stretched given the fundamentals.

From a risk/reward perspective, FIVE appears attractive for growth-oriented investors. The stock trades at $234.14, with a consensus analyst target of $310.95 implying 32.8% upside, and a low target of $254 still offering 8.5% upside. The forward PE of 21.16x and PEG of 0.71 suggest the valuation is reasonable relative to expected earnings growth of over 20%. However, the biggest downside risk is a consumer spending slowdown or tariff escalation that could compress margins and drive the stock toward its 52-week low of $137.77, a 41% decline. Therefore, it is a good buy for investors with a medium-to-long-term horizon who can tolerate volatility, but not for those seeking income or capital preservation.

FIVE is more suitable for medium-to-long-term investment (at least 1-2 years) rather than short-term trading. The company is in a growth phase with a successful turnaround, but its beta of 0.989 and maximum drawdown of -28.85% indicate significant volatility. The lack of a dividend (payout ratio 0%) means returns depend entirely on capital appreciation, which requires time for the turnaround to fully play out. Short-term traders might exploit the recent pullback (down 3.28% in a month) for a bounce, but the risk of further downside exists. A minimum holding period of 12-18 months is suggested to ride out quarterly volatility and benefit from the expected earnings growth.