GD

General Dynamics

$372.78

-0.61%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
General Dynamics is a diversified defense contractor and business jet manufacturer, operating through four segments: Aerospace (Gulfstream jets), Marine Systems (nuclear submarines and destroyers), Combat Systems (tanks and armored vehicles), and Technologies (IT and mission systems). As one of the top five U.S. defense primes, it holds a unique dual identity as both a leading military shipbuilder and the dominant player in the large-cabin business jet market. The current investor narrative centers on a powerful geopolitical tailwind from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a proposed 355-ship Navy buildout, which is driving order backlogs and raising expectations for sustained revenue growth. At the same time, the stock is benefiting from a broader defense sector rotation, though margin compression in the Aerospace segment and supply chain risks tied to rare earth dependencies remain key debates.

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GD 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $372.78
Average Target $372.78
High Target $428.70
Low Target $316.86

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on General Dynamics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $484.61 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$484.61

9 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

9

covering this stock

Price Range

$298 - $485

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (22%)
Hold
4 (44%)
Sell
3 (33%)

General Dynamics is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish: 4 Buy/Overweight, 4 Hold/Neutral, and 1 Sell (implied from the ratings data). The average analyst target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS of $21.65 and a forward P/E of 20.6x, the implied target is approximately $446, representing about 19% upside from the current price of $375.06. The consensus recommendation is a Moderate Buy, reflecting broad optimism around defense spending tailwinds. The estimated EPS range is $21.29 to $22.08, and the estimated revenue range is $63.7 billion to $65.5 billion, indicating a relatively tight spread that suggests reasonable confidence in near-term results. Recent ratings actions include Morgan Stanley upgrading to Overweight from Equal Weight in December 2025, while Jefferies maintained Hold in February 2026. The high target of $22.08 EPS implies a potential price of ~$455 (using 20.6x P/E), while the low target of $21.29 EPS implies ~$438. The absence of a wide dispersion in estimates suggests that analysts see a clear path for GD given the strong geopolitical and budgetary backdrop. The stock's low beta and steady fundamentals make it a consensus defensive play within the defense sector.

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GD Technical Analysis

General Dynamics is in a strong uptrend, with the stock up 23.6% over the past year and currently trading at $375.06, which is 98.5% of its 52-week high of $380.71. This positioning near the top of the range signals robust momentum and bullish sentiment, though it also raises the risk of short-term overextension. The stock has recovered sharply from its 52-week low of $293.95, a gain of 27.6% from that trough, indicating a sustained recovery trend. Short-term momentum is accelerating: the 1-month price change is +10.0%, outpacing the 3-month change of +11.9% on an annualized basis, and the 1-month relative strength versus SPY is +5.9%, confirming recent outperformance. The 3-month change of +11.9% is slightly above the 1-year run rate, suggesting momentum is building rather than fading. The stock's beta of 0.34 is remarkably low, meaning it is about 66% less volatile than the S&P 500, which is unusual for a defense stock and implies that recent gains have been driven by idiosyncratic catalysts rather than broad market moves. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $293.95, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $380.71. A breakout above $380.71 would signal a continuation of the uptrend and likely attract momentum buyers, while a breakdown below the recent consolidation zone near $340 could indicate a loss of bullish momentum. The low beta suggests that any pullback may be shallower than the broader market, making the stock a relatively defensive way to play defense.

Beta

0.34

0.34x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-15.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$294-$381

Price range past year

Annual Return

+23.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodGD ReturnS&P 500
1m+3.5%+1.0%
3m+9.7%+7.9%
6m+1.9%+8.5%
1y+23.4%+20.1%
ytd+8.6%+9.9%

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GD Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been solid and accelerating: Q4 2025 revenue of $14.38 billion grew 7.8% year-over-year, up from 6.7% in Q3 2025 and 5.8% in Q2 2025. The trailing twelve-month revenue reached approximately $52.6 billion, driven by strong performance in Marine Systems ($4.82 billion in Q4) and Aerospace ($3.79 billion), which together account for 60% of total revenue. The Marine segment benefits from the Virginia-class submarine and Columbia-class programs, while Aerospace is seeing robust Gulfstream demand. The Technologies segment ($3.24 billion) provides a stable IT services base. Profitability is healthy but showing slight margin compression: Q4 2025 gross margin was 14.9%, down from 15.6% in Q4 2024, while operating margin was 10.1% versus 10.7% a year ago. Net income for Q4 2025 was $1.14 billion, up from $1.15 billion in Q4 2024, with net margin of 7.9% versus 8.6% last year. The decline in margins is partly due to mix shift toward lower-margin Marine work and higher R&D in Aerospace. The balance sheet is strong: debt-to-equity is 0.38, well below the industry average, and the current ratio is 1.44, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow for Q4 2025 was $952 million, and trailing twelve-month FCF was $3.96 billion, representing a FCF yield of 4.4% based on the current market cap. ROE is a solid 16.4%, reflecting efficient capital use. The company generates sufficient cash to fund dividends ($0.405 billion in Q4) and share repurchases ($0.637 billion in Q4), with a payout ratio of 38%.

Quarterly Revenue

$14.4B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+7.80%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

14.89%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$4.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Aerospace
Combat Systems
Marine Systems
Technologies

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Valuation Analysis: Is GD Overvalued?

Since net income is positive ($1.14 billion in Q4 2025), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 21.5x, while the forward P/E is 20.6x, implying the market expects earnings growth of about 4.4% over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E is modest, suggesting that the market is pricing in steady, not explosive, earnings growth. Compared to the Aerospace & Defense industry average P/E of approximately 22x (based on sector data), GD trades at a slight discount of about 2%, which is reasonable given its lower growth profile versus some high-growth defense tech peers. However, on a P/S basis, GD's trailing P/S of 1.73x is well below the industry average of 2.5x, indicating that the market is not fully pricing in its revenue growth potential. Historically, GD's trailing P/E of 21.5x is near the middle of its 5-year range of 15x to 25x, suggesting fair valuation. The current P/E is above the 5-year average of 18x, reflecting the recent defense sector re-rating. The PEG ratio of 1.62x implies that the stock is priced at a slight premium to its expected earnings growth rate, but this is not extreme. Overall, GD appears fairly valued with room for multiple expansion if growth accelerates.

PE

21.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 15x~25x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple