Gaming and Leisure Properties
GLPI
$43.55
-0.37%
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) that acquires, finances, and owns gaming-related real estate, leasing properties to casino operators under triple-net lease agreements. As a pioneer in the gaming REIT niche, GLPI holds a unique position as one of the largest pure-play gaming property owners in the U.S., with a portfolio spanning iconic properties like Ameristar Black Hawk and Hollywood Casino Aurora. The current investor narrative centers on GLPI's defensive income appeal, highlighted by a high dividend yield and stable cash flows from long-term leases, even as the stock has underperformed the broader market over the past year. Recent coverage from The Motley Fool emphasizes its 'sleepy' but reliable income profile, while analysts debate the impact of regional gaming trends and interest rate sensitivity on future growth.…
GLPI
Gaming and Leisure Properties
$43.55
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy GLPI Today?
Based on the analysis, GLPI is rated a Hold. The consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with an average target price of $53.52, implying 22.9% upside, but the stock's recent downtrend and high payout ratio warrant caution. The thesis is that GLPI offers a stable, high-yield income stream, but its growth is modest and it faces interest rate headwinds.
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GLPI 12-Month Price Forecast
GLPI presents a balanced risk-reward profile. The high dividend yield and stable cash flows provide downside support, but the stock's underperformance and high leverage limit upside potential. The neutral stance reflects the uncertainty around interest rates and the sustainability of the dividend. If revenue growth accelerates or interest rates decline, the stance would upgrade to bullish; if the dividend is cut or debt levels rise, it would downgrade to bearish.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Gaming and Leisure Properties's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $53.52 and implied upside of +22.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$53.52
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+22.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$45 - $63
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $45.00 to a high of $63.00, with the average at $53.52. The high target of $63.00 assumes a significant recovery and multiple expansion, likely driven by expectations of accelerated growth or a favorable interest rate environment, while the low target of $45.00 suggests a modest downside from current levels, possibly pricing in continued regional gaming weakness or higher financing costs. The wide spread of $18.00 between low and high indicates high uncertainty among analysts, reflecting the stock's sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. Recent ratings have been stable, with no recent upgrades or downgrades in the last three months, suggesting a wait-and-see approach. This wide dispersion highlights the risk-reward tradeoff, with the consensus leaning bullish but with considerable downside risk.
Bulls vs Bears: GLPI Investment Factors
GLPI presents a mixed picture: it offers a high dividend yield, stable revenue growth, and strong profitability, but it faces headwinds from high leverage, elevated valuation, and significant underperformance relative to the market. The bull case is supported by analyst optimism and defensive characteristics, while the bear case is driven by financial leverage and interest rate risks. Currently, the bearish evidence is slightly stronger due to the stock's persistent downtrend and high payout ratio, but the high dividend yield and analyst targets provide a floor. The key tension is whether GLPI's stable cash flows can justify its valuation and debt load in a rising rate environment, or if the market will continue to discount its growth prospects.
Bullish
- Stable Revenue Growth: GLPI's revenue grew 6.26% YoY in Q1 2026 to $419.985 million, with consistent sequential growth from $394.876 million in Q2 2025. This steady expansion is driven by the core leasing business, providing a reliable income stream.
- High Dividend Yield: The stock offers a dividend yield of 6.98%, well above the S&P 500 average. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors, especially in a low-rate environment, and is supported by a payout ratio of 105.7%, indicating the dividend is covered by earnings.
- Strong Profitability Metrics: GLPI boasts an operating margin of 75.3% and a net margin of 51.7%, reflecting the efficiency of its triple-net lease model. These margins are exceptional and highlight the company's ability to convert revenue into profits.
- Analyst Consensus Buy: With a consensus rating of 'Buy' and an average target price of $53.52, analysts see significant upside of 22.9% from the current price of $43.55. The high target of $63.00 implies even greater potential, suggesting confidence in the company's growth prospects.
Bearish
- Underperformance vs Market: GLPI has declined 8.1% over the past year, while the S&P 500 gained 20.5%. This significant underperformance, with relative strength of -28.6% over 1 year, suggests investors are favoring growth stocks over income plays, pressuring the stock.
- High Debt Levels: The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.68, indicating substantial leverage. This increases financial risk, especially if interest rates rise, as higher borrowing costs could compress margins and reduce distributable cash flow.
- Elevated Valuation Metrics: With a P/E of 15.15x and a P/B of 2.70x, GLPI trades at a premium to its historical averages. The PEG ratio of 5.43 suggests the stock is overvalued relative to its growth rate, which could lead to multiple compression if growth disappoints.
- Dividend Payout Ratio Over 100%: The payout ratio of 105.7% indicates that GLPI is paying out more than its earnings, which is unsustainable in the long term. This could force a dividend cut if earnings decline, undermining the primary investment thesis.
GLPI Technical Analysis
GLPI is currently in a clear downtrend, with the stock price at $43.55 as of August 21, 2026, reflecting a 1-year decline of -8.1%. The stock is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, at approximately 87% of the range (calculated as (43.55 - 41.17) / (49.95 - 41.17) = 0.87), indicating it is closer to the 52-week low of $41.17 than the high of $49.95. This positioning suggests a bearish sentiment, with the stock having lost momentum and failing to hold higher levels, potentially signaling a value opportunity or a falling knife depending on fundamental support.
Beta
0.69
0.69x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-15.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$41-$50
Price range past year
Annual Return
-8.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | GLPI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -2.6% | +3.6% |
| 3m | -8.9% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -7.8% | +11.4% |
| 1y | -8.1% | +18.7% |
| ytd | -2.0% | +12.3% |
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GLPI Fundamental Analysis
GLPI's revenue trajectory shows steady growth, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $419.985 million, a 6.26% year-over-year increase from $395.235 million in Q1 2025. Over the past five quarters, revenue has grown from $394.876 million in Q2 2025 to $419.985 million in Q1 2026, indicating a consistent upward trend. The growth is primarily driven by the GLP Capital L.P. segment, which contributed $281.251 million in revenue, while TRS Properties added $17.461 million, showing the core leasing business is expanding. This growth trajectory supports the investment case for a stable, income-generating REIT with modest but reliable expansion.
Quarterly Revenue
$419985000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
64.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$744139000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is GLPI Overvalued?
Given that GLPI has positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 15.15x, while the forward PE is 13.19x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth, as the forward multiple is lower. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests a 13% expected earnings growth, which is reasonable for a REIT with stable cash flows. This selection is appropriate because PE is the most direct measure of earnings-based valuation for profitable companies, and the forward discount implies positive growth expectations.
PE
15.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 12x~24x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are notable for GLPI. The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.68, indicating significant leverage that could strain cash flows if interest rates rise. In Q1 2026, interest expense was $95.9 million, consuming a large portion of operating income. The payout ratio of 105.7% suggests dividends are not fully covered by earnings, posing a risk of reduction if net income declines. Revenue concentration in the gaming sector, with properties like Ameristar Black Hawk and Hollywood Casino Aurora, exposes GLPI to regional gaming trends and tenant performance, which could be volatile.
FAQ
The main risks include high financial leverage (debt-to-equity of 1.68), which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise. The dividend payout ratio of 105.7% indicates the dividend may not be fully covered by earnings, posing a cut risk. Additionally, the stock is sensitive to regional gaming trends and interest rate movements, and it has underperformed the market significantly. These risks are ranked by severity, with dividend sustainability being the most critical.
The 12-month forecast is mixed. In the base case (50% probability), the stock could reach the average analyst target of $53.52, representing 22.9% upside. In the bull case (25% probability), it could rise to $63.00, while in the bear case (25% probability), it could fall to $41.17. The most likely scenario is moderate growth, with the stock trading in the $45-$53 range, assuming stable interest rates and continued revenue growth.
GLPI trades at a trailing P/E of 15.15x and a forward P/E of 13.19x, which is reasonable for a REIT. However, its P/B of 2.70x and PEG of 5.43 suggest it is overvalued relative to its growth rate. Compared to its historical averages, the stock is fairly valued, but the market is pricing in modest growth. The valuation implies that investors expect stable, but not spectacular, performance.
GLPI offers a high dividend yield of 6.98% and stable revenue growth, making it attractive for income investors. However, the stock has underperformed the market, and the payout ratio is above 100%, raising sustainability concerns. With an average analyst target of $53.52, there is potential upside of 22.9%, but the stock is not without risks. It could be a good buy for those seeking income and willing to tolerate moderate volatility, but it may not suit growth-oriented investors.
GLPI is best suited for long-term investment, given its stable cash flows and high dividend yield. The stock's beta of 0.686 indicates lower volatility, making it a defensive holding. However, its modest growth and interest rate sensitivity mean it may not provide significant capital appreciation in the short term. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to benefit from dividend income and potential valuation recovery.