GS

Goldman Sachs

$988.45

-3.96%
Sep 14, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is a global investment bank and financial services firm whose operations span investment banking advisory and underwriting, global markets sales and trading, asset management, wealth management, and a small, declining consumer credit card portfolio, with the firm having been the leading provider of global M&A advisory services by revenue for the past 20 years. The company is a bellwether of the capital markets industry, distinct for its elite advisory franchise, dominant trading desk, and a strategic pivot since the financial crisis toward more stable fee-based asset and wealth management businesses, which comprised roughly 30% of post-provision revenue at the end of 2025. The current investor narrative centers on the durability of the capital markets recovery, with Q2 2026 revenue surging 22.9% year over year to $38.4 billion and net income of $6.6 billion, alongside a broader debate about whether rising global bond yields and higher-for-longer interest rates will sustain trading and underwriting activity or pressure valuations. Attention is also focused on the firm's capital return program, with $5.0 billion of stock repurchased in Q1 2026 and a dividend yield near 1.9%, as investors weigh whether the cyclical earnings upswing justifies the stock's premium multiple.

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BobbyInvestment Opinion: Should I buy GS Today?

The synthesized recommendation is a Hold with a bullish bias, reflecting a balance between strong fundamental momentum and a premium valuation that already prices in much of the recovery. The analyst consensus average target of $1,141.65 implies 10.9% upside, but the wide range ($730-$1,325) and mixed ratings (Overweight to Underperform) suggest the stock is fairly valued with upside dependent on execution. The core thesis is that Goldman's elite franchise and operating leverage will drive earnings growth, but the cyclical nature of its business and macro headwinds limit the margin of safety.

Supporting evidence includes the 22.91% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2026, net margin expansion to 17.25% from 11.91%, and a forward PE of 13.90x that is below the trailing PE of 16.92x, implying 21.7% earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.65 signals undervaluation relative to growth, and the ROE of 13.74% is respectable for a large-cap bank. However, free cash flow is negative at -$41.92 billion, and the PB ratio of 2.20x is near historical highs, suggesting the market is pricing in sustained profitability. The dividend yield of 1.92% and $5.0 billion buyback in Q1 2026 provide some downside support.

The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are a slowdown in capital markets activity, a spike in credit costs, or a sharp rise in interest rates that compresses trading revenue. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the forward PE compresses below 12x or if revenue growth accelerates above 25% with margin expansion, and downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 10% or if net margin falls below 12%. Relative to its history (PE range 6.22x-25.76x) and peers (10x-15x PE), the stock is fairly valued to slightly overvalued, warranting a Hold rating for most investors.

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GS 12-Month Price Forecast

Goldman Sachs presents a balanced risk/reward profile, with strong fundamental momentum offset by a premium valuation and cyclical risks. The stock's 31.15% one-year gain and 22.91% revenue growth underscore the capital markets upcycle, but the recent 3-month underperformance (-6.20% vs. SPY) and wide analyst dispersion suggest caution. The forward PE of 13.90x and PEG of 0.65 imply the stock is undervalued relative to growth, yet the PB ratio of 2.20x leaves little room for error. I would upgrade to bullish if Q3 earnings show revenue growth above 25% and net margin above 18%, or downgrade to bearish if revenue growth falls below 10% or if credit costs spike. The base case (50% probability) targets $1,100-$1,180, reflecting steady growth and a fair multiple.

Historical Price
Current Price $988.45
Average Target $1140.00
High Target $1325.00
Low Target $730.00

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Goldman Sachs's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1141.65 and implied upside of +15.5% versus the current price.

Average Target

$1141.65

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+15.5%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$730 - $1325

Analyst target range

Goldman Sachs is covered by 20 analysts, with the consensus average target price of $1,141.65 implying approximately 10.9% upside from the current price of $1,029.18. The recommendation distribution is not explicitly provided as a single consensus rating, but the institutional ratings data shows a mix of Overweight, Buy, Outperform, Neutral, Market Perform, Equal Weight, and one Underperform, indicating a moderately bullish but not overwhelmingly positive sentiment. The presence of multiple Overweight and Buy ratings from firms like Barclays, Wells Fargo, B of A Securities, and Evercore ISI suggests that the bullish camp is anchored by expectations of continued capital markets strength, while the Neutral and Market Perform ratings from JP Morgan, Keefe Bruyette & Woods, BMO Capital, UBS, and Morgan Stanley reflect caution about valuation and cyclical risks. The consensus leans modestly bullish, but the lack of a strong unanimous Buy signal suggests that analysts see the stock as fairly valued with upside dependent on execution. The target price range spans from a low of $730.00 to a high of $1,325.00, a spread of $595.00 or approximately 81% of the low target, which signals significant disagreement among analysts about the company's trajectory. The high target of $1,325.00 implies roughly 28.7% upside and likely assumes multiple expansion, accelerating M&A and underwriting activity, and sustained trading revenue, while the low target of $730.00 implies a 29.1% downside and prices in margin compression, a downturn in capital markets, or recession-like conditions. The wide spread indicates high uncertainty, which is consistent with the cyclical nature of investment banking earnings and the macro risks highlighted in recent news, including rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions. The estimated EPS average of $77.09, with a range of $68.77 to $83.76, and estimated revenue average of $77.13 billion, with a range of $70.73 billion to $82.27 billion, further underscore the dispersion in expectations. The recent institutional ratings show no upgrades or downgrades in the past three months, with actions mostly reiterating existing positions, suggesting that analysts are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the next earnings catalyst.

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Bulls vs Bears: GS Investment Factors

The bull case currently has stronger evidence, anchored by accelerating revenue growth (22.91% YoY), expanding margins (net margin 17.25%), and a compelling forward valuation (PEG 0.65). However, the bear case raises valid concerns about the premium multiple (trailing PE 16.92x vs. sector 10x-15x), negative free cash flow (-$41.92 billion), and the cyclical nature of earnings. The single most important tension is whether the capital markets recovery can sustain the current earnings momentum amid rising bond yields and geopolitical risks; if deal activity and trading volumes hold up, the stock could re-rate higher, but any slowdown would expose the premium valuation. The wide analyst target range ($730-$1,325) underscores this uncertainty, making the next earnings report a critical catalyst.

Bullish

  • Revenue growth accelerating sharply: Q2 2026 revenue surged 22.91% year over year to $38.43 billion, up from $31.27 billion in Q2 2025, marking a clear acceleration from the prior year's growth rate. This reflects a broad-based capital markets recovery, with Global Markets contributing $20.63 billion and Investment Management adding $9.22 billion.
  • Profitability expanding at record pace: Net income jumped to $6.63 billion in Q2 2026 from $3.72 billion a year earlier, lifting net margin to 17.25% from 11.91%. Operating margin expanded to 29.99% from 15.86%, demonstrating powerful operating leverage as revenue growth outpaces expenses.
  • Attractive forward valuation with PEG 0.65: The forward PE of 13.90x is well below the trailing PE of 16.92x, implying expected earnings growth of 21.7%. The PEG ratio of 0.65 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate, a rare signal for a large-cap financial.
  • Strong analyst upside and consensus: The consensus average target price of $1,141.65 implies 10.9% upside from the current $1,029.18, with a high target of $1,325.00 (28.7% upside). The 20-analyst coverage includes multiple Overweight and Buy ratings from major firms, anchoring a moderately bullish sentiment.

Bearish

  • Premium valuation leaves little room for error: The trailing PE of 16.92x represents a 13% to 69% premium to the sector midpoint of 10x-15x, while the PB ratio of 2.20x is near the upper end of its historical range (0.87x to 2.20x). Any deterioration in ROE (currently 13.74%) or capital markets activity could trigger a sharp de-rating.
  • Negative free cash flow and high leverage: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is -$41.92 billion, driven by large working capital swings and $74.22 billion in investment purchases in Q1 2026. The debt-to-equity ratio of 4.88 and current ratio of 0.83 reflect the inherent leverage of an investment bank, amplifying risk in a downturn.
  • Cyclical earnings vulnerable to macro shifts: Revenue is heavily tied to capital markets activity, with Global Markets and Investment Banking driving the majority of results. Rising global bond yields and higher-for-longer rates, as highlighted in recent news, could pressure trading volumes and deal activity, reversing the current upcycle.
  • Wide analyst target dispersion signals uncertainty: The target price range spans from $730.00 to $1,325.00, a spread of $595.00 or 81% of the low target. This reflects significant disagreement about the sustainability of the earnings recovery, with the low target implying 29.1% downside.

GS Technical Analysis

Goldman Sachs is in a sustained uptrend, with the current price of $1,029.18 representing a 31.15% gain over the past year and a 12.56% year-to-date advance, though the stock sits roughly 10.8% below its 52-week high of $1,153.99 and about 39.1% above its 52-week low of $740.01, placing it at approximately 69.9% of its 52-week range. This positioning signals that the stock retains strong long-term momentum but has ceded some ground from its peak, suggesting a consolidation phase rather than a breakdown. The 6-month change of 31.57% confirms the uptrend's persistence, yet the recent pullback from the July high of $1,152.07 indicates the market is digesting gains rather than aggressively extending them. Recent momentum has decelerated sharply, with the 1-month change of -0.77% and 3-month change of -3.16% contrasting with the robust 1-year gain of 31.15%, a divergence that signals a temporary pullback or mean reversion within a broader uptrend. Notably, the 1-month relative strength versus SPY is +0.29%, meaning GS has slightly outperformed the market even as its absolute price declined, while the 3-month relative strength of -6.20% shows meaningful underperformance against SPY's +3.04% over that window. The 6-month relative strength of +16.17% underscores that the medium-term outperformance remains intact, and the current consolidation may be a pause before the next leg higher rather than a trend reversal. Key technical support lies near the 52-week low of $740.01, with intermediate support around the $1,000 psychological level, while resistance is anchored at the 52-week high of $1,153.99. A breakout above $1,154 would signal renewed momentum and likely target new highs, whereas a breakdown below $1,000 could accelerate selling toward the $980 area, which served as a swing low in late July. With a beta of 1.283, GS is approximately 28.3% more volatile than the broader market, meaning position sizing should account for amplified drawdowns; the maximum drawdown of -19.84% over the period illustrates this risk, and the short ratio of 3.86 suggests moderate short interest that could fuel a squeeze on upside breakouts.

Beta

1.28

1.28x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-19.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$740-$1154

Price range past year

Annual Return

+26.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodGS ReturnS&P 500
1m-4.9%-2.0%
3m-9.4%+1.4%
6m+22.7%+15.0%
1y+26.7%+15.7%
ytd+8.1%+11.6%

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GS Fundamental Analysis

Goldman Sachs' revenue trajectory is strongly reaccelerating, with Q2 2026 revenue of $38.43 billion representing 22.91% year-over-year growth from $31.27 billion in Q2 2025, and this follows a clear multi-quarter upward trend from $30.13 billion in Q4 2025 and $17.23 billion in Q1 2026. The revenue segments show Global Markets contributing $20.63 billion and Investment Management adding $9.22 billion, indicating that trading and asset management are the primary growth engines, while the investment banking franchise benefits from a recovering M&A and underwriting environment. The sequential and year-over-year acceleration implies that the capital markets cycle is in an upswing, which supports the investment case for cyclical earnings expansion, though the sustainability depends on deal activity and trading volumes holding up amid higher-for-longer rates. Profitability is robust and expanding, with Q2 2026 net income of $6.63 billion and a net margin of 17.25%, up from 11.91% in Q2 2025 and 12.74% in Q3 2025, while the gross margin of 52.66% in Q2 2026 improved from 45.41% a year earlier. The operating margin of 29.99% in Q2 2026 is well above the 15.86% recorded in Q2 2025, reflecting strong operating leverage as revenue growth outpaces expense growth, and the EBITDA of $12.03 billion with an EBITDA ratio of 31.31% confirms healthy cash generation at the operating level. These margin levels are consistent with a top-tier investment bank during a favorable market environment, and the trajectory suggests that management's cost discipline and revenue mix shift toward fee-based businesses are bearing fruit. The balance sheet carries elevated leverage typical of a global investment bank, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.88 and a current ratio of 0.83, though the ROE of 13.74% and ROA of 1.07% indicate efficient capital deployment relative to the sector. Free cash flow is negative at -$41.92 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, driven by large working capital swings and investment purchases, but this is not unusual for a broker-dealer where operating cash flow fluctuates with trading positions and client activity; Q1 2026 operating cash flow was -$31.87 billion, reflecting $74.22 billion in investment purchases and $52.89 billion in debt repayment. The firm maintains substantial liquidity with $179.53 billion in cash at the end of Q1 2026, and the payout ratio of 30.72% with a dividend yield of 1.92% suggests a sustainable capital return program, though the negative FCF yield warrants monitoring if it persists beyond seasonal working capital effects.

Quarterly Revenue

$38.4B

2026-06

Revenue YoY Growth

+22.9%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

52.7%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-41.9B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Investment Management
Global Markets

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Valuation Analysis: Is GS Overvalued?

Because Goldman Sachs is profitable with positive net income of $6.63 billion in Q2 2026, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric, and the trailing PE of 16.92x compares to a forward PE of 13.90x, implying that the market expects earnings growth of approximately 21.7% over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward multiples reflects optimism about continued capital markets recovery, and the PEG ratio of 0.65 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its expected growth rate, a signal that the market may not be fully pricing in the earnings acceleration. The PS ratio of 2.20x and PB ratio of 2.20x provide additional context, with the PB ratio being particularly relevant for financials as it reflects the market's assessment of book value quality and ROE sustainability. Compared to the broader Financial Services sector, where investment banks typically trade at PE multiples ranging from 10x to 15x depending on the cycle, GS's trailing PE of 16.92x represents a premium of roughly 13% to 69% above the sector midpoint, though the forward PE of 13.90x is more in line with peers. The premium is justified by Goldman's superior ROE of 13.74%, its leading M&A advisory franchise, and the revenue growth rate of 22.91% that outpaces many peers, but the valuation leaves limited room for error if trading volumes or deal activity disappoint. The PB ratio of 2.20x is above the sector average of approximately 1.5x to 1.8x for large-cap banks, reflecting the market's confidence in Goldman's book value and earnings power, though it also means the stock is sensitive to any deterioration in ROE. Historically, Goldman's PE ratio has ranged from a low of 6.22x in Q3 2021 to a high of 25.76x in Q2 2023, with the current 16.92x sitting near the middle of that band but above the 2024 average of roughly 12x to 14x. The PB ratio of 2.20x is near the upper end of its historical range, which has oscillated between 0.87x in Q3 2022 and 2.20x currently, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for sustained profitability. This historical context implies that while the stock is not cheap on an absolute basis, the premium is supported by the current earnings upcycle, and a re-rating lower would likely require a meaningful deterioration in capital markets activity or a sharp rise in credit costs.

PE

16.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 6x~26x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

30.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Goldman Sachs faces significant financial and operational risks inherent to its investment banking model. The debt-to-equity ratio of 4.88 and current ratio of 0.83 reflect heavy leverage, which amplifies both gains and losses. Negative trailing twelve-month free cash flow of -$41.92 billion, driven by $74.22 billion in investment purchases and $52.89 billion in debt repayment in Q1 2026, highlights the volatility of cash flows tied to trading positions and client activity. Additionally, revenue concentration in Global Markets ($20.63 billion in Q2 2026) and Investment Banking exposes the firm to cyclical downturns in trading volumes and M&A activity, while the net margin of 17.25%, though improved, remains vulnerable to expense growth if revenue decelerates.

Market and competitive risks are substantial given the premium valuation and macro sensitivity. The trailing PE of 16.92x and PB ratio of 2.20x are above sector averages (10x-15x PE, 1.5x-1.8x PB), leaving little room for error if earnings disappoint. Rising global bond yields, as noted in recent news, signal higher-for-longer rates that could pressure trading and underwriting activity, while geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-Iran) may dampen market sentiment. With a beta of 1.283, GS is 28.3% more volatile than the broader market, meaning any sector rotation or macro shock could lead to outsized drawdowns. The 3-month relative strength of -6.20% versus SPY already indicates recent underperformance, and competitive pressures from peers like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan could erode market share.

The worst-case scenario involves a sharp reversal in capital markets activity, triggered by a recession or a spike in credit costs, which would compress revenue and margins simultaneously. In this scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $740.01, representing a 28.1% decline from the current price of $1,029.18, or fall to the analyst low target of $730.00 (29.1% downside). A breakdown below the $1,000 psychological support could accelerate selling toward the $980 swing low, and ultimately the 52-week low. Given the maximum drawdown of -19.84% over the past period, a 30% loss is plausible in a severe downturn, underscoring the importance of position sizing and risk management.

FAQ

The key risks for GS are ranked as follows: 1) Cyclical revenue risk, as Global Markets and Investment Banking are highly sensitive to market activity, with a 3-month relative strength of -6.20% versus SPY already showing underperformance; 2) Valuation risk, with a PB ratio of 2.20x near historical highs and a trailing PE of 16.92x above sector averages, leaving little room for error; 3) Financial leverage risk, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.88 and negative free cash flow of -$41.92 billion, which could strain liquidity in a downturn; and 4) Macro risk, as rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-Iran) could dampen trading volumes and deal activity. These risks are amplified by the stock's beta of 1.283, making it more volatile than the market.

The 12-month forecast for GS includes three scenarios: a base case (50% probability) targeting $1,100-$1,180, assuming revenue growth of 15-20% and net margin around 17%; a bull case (30% probability) targeting $1,250-$1,325, driven by accelerating M&A and multiple expansion; and a bear case (20% probability) targeting $730-$850, triggered by a recession or market downturn. The most likely scenario is the base case, which aligns with the analyst average target of $1,141.65 and implies 10.9% upside. The key assumption is that capital markets activity remains robust, with no major macro shocks. However, the wide analyst range ($730-$1,325) underscores the uncertainty, and investors should monitor earnings and macro indicators closely.

GS appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued on a growth-adjusted basis, but carries a premium on book value. The trailing PE of 16.92x is above the sector midpoint of 10x-15x, yet the forward PE of 13.90x is more in line with peers, and the PEG ratio of 0.65 suggests undervaluation relative to expected earnings growth of 21.7%. The PB ratio of 2.20x is near the upper end of its historical range (0.87x-2.20x), indicating the market is pricing in optimistic ROE expectations. Compared to its own history, the current PE is near the middle of the 6.22x-25.76x range, but the PB is at a peak. The market seems to expect sustained capital markets strength; any disappointment could lead to multiple compression.

From a risk/reward perspective, GS is a moderate buy for investors with a tolerance for cyclicality and a 12-18 month horizon. The stock trades at $1,029.18, with a consensus target of $1,141.65 implying 10.9% upside, and a forward PE of 13.90x that is reasonable given 22.91% revenue growth. However, the premium PB ratio of 2.20x and negative free cash flow of -$41.92 billion mean the downside risk is significant if capital markets activity slows. The biggest risk is a recession or spike in credit costs, which could push the stock toward its 52-week low of $740.01 (-28.1%). For long-term investors comfortable with volatility, GS offers exposure to a best-in-class franchise at a fair price, but it is not a low-risk buy.

GS is more suitable for long-term investment (minimum 12-18 months) than short-term trading, given its cyclical earnings and high beta of 1.283. The stock's 31.15% one-year gain and 22.91% revenue growth demonstrate the potential of holding through a capital markets upcycle, but the recent 3-month decline of -3.16% and max drawdown of -19.84% highlight the volatility of shorter horizons. The dividend yield of 1.92% and $5.0 billion buyback provide some income and support, but the negative free cash flow of -$41.92 billion means cash returns are not guaranteed. For short-term traders, the stock offers opportunities around earnings and macro events, but timing is difficult. A long-term holding period allows investors to benefit from Goldman's franchise strength and earnings compounding.