Goldman Sachs
GS
$897.18
+0.42%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is a global investment bank and financial services firm operating across investment banking, global markets, asset management, and wealth management, with a client base spanning corporations, institutions, governments, and high-net-worth individuals. Founded in 1869 and listed on the NYSE since 1999, it has been the leading provider of global M&A advisory services by revenue for two decades and has deliberately expanded into more predictable, fee-based asset and wealth management, which contributed roughly 30% of post-provision revenue at the end of 2025. The current investor narrative centers on the durability of the capital-markets recovery — Q2 2026 revenue grew 22.9% year over year to $38.4 billion, with Global Markets contributing $20.6 billion and Investment Management $9.2 billion — and on Goldman's role as lead advisor for Anthropic's expected October IPO, a high-profile fee event that underscores its franchise strength. At the same time, the stock has de-rated sharply over the past three months, with investors debating whether the pullback reflects a temporary risk-off episode in rate-sensitive financials or a more durable peak in trading and advisory activity.…
GS
Goldman Sachs
$897.18
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy GS Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Hold. The core thesis is that Goldman Sachs offers genuine value at 12.36x forward earnings and a 0.65 PEG, with the average analyst target of $1,116.75 implying 23.7% upside, but the near-term momentum breakdown and a consensus rating of only Hold (mean 2.6) argue against chasing the stock before it stabilizes. The disconnect between the Street's fair-value estimate and its neutral rating captures the central tension: analysts see value but lack near-term catalysts to upgrade.
The supporting evidence is mixed but leans constructive on valuation. Revenue grew 22.91% year over year to $38.43 billion in Q2 2026, net margin expanded to 17.25% from 11.91%, and gross margin rose to 52.66% from 45.41%, showing real operating leverage. The forward PE of 12.36x versus a trailing PE of 16.92x implies roughly 37% earnings growth to the consensus forward EPS of $78.69, and the 2.20x price-to-book for a 13.74% ROE franchise is a premium to book but not extreme. However, free cash flow is negative at -$41.52 billion on a trailing basis, debt-to-equity is 4.88x, and the stock trails SPY by 14.94 points over three months — evidence that the market is not yet rewarding the fundamental improvement.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are a cyclical peak in capital-markets activity, margin compression if compensation ratios reset higher, and further multiple compression if the stock breaks below the $896–$900 support area. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if the stock reclaims $1,000 and forward revenue estimates stabilize above $77 billion, or downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 10% year over year or the stock breaks below the 52-week low of $740.01. Relative to its own history, GS is fairly valued to slightly rich at 16.92x trailing earnings and 2.20x book — above the 2023–2024 troughs but below the 2023 peak — so the stock needs earnings delivery, not multiple expansion, to work from here.
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GS 12-Month Price Forecast
Goldman Sachs presents a fairly balanced risk/reward at $902.56: the 12.36x forward PE and 0.65 PEG are undemanding for a 13.74% ROE franchise, and the $1,116.75 average target implies meaningful upside, but the stock has lost 10.14% in a month and the Street is only at Hold. The central question is whether the 22.91% Q2 revenue growth rate is a cyclical peak or a durable step-up; the consensus forward revenue estimate of $77.35 billion implies deceleration, so the stock needs earnings delivery rather than multiple expansion to work. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock reclaims $1,000 and forward revenue estimates stabilize above $77 billion, and downgrade to bearish if revenue growth decelerates below 10% or the stock breaks below the 52-week low of $740.01. With a beta of 1.283, position sizing matters, and the 3.78 short ratio suggests bears are not yet aggressively pressing the name.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Goldman Sachs's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1079.50 and implied upside of +20.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$1079.50
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+20.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$730 - $1250
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust with 20 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is "hold" with a recommendation mean of 2.6 on a scale where lower is more bullish — a genuinely neutral stance rather than a disguised buy. The average target price of $1,116.75 implies roughly +23.7% upside from the current price of $902.56, which is a notable disconnect: the Street's average target sits well above the market price even as the consensus rating is only Hold, suggesting analysts see value but lack near-term catalysts to upgrade. The forward EPS estimates of $78.69 average (range $71.42 to $82.43) and revenue estimates of $77.35 billion average (range $71.85 billion to $80.18 billion) underpin that target, and the dispersion in EPS estimates is relatively tight at roughly 15% between low and high, indicating reasonable confidence in the earnings base. The full target range of $730.00 to $1,300.00 is extremely wide — the low target implies about -19% downside while the high target implies about +44% upside — which signals genuine disagreement about the durability of the capital-markets cycle rather than a simple valuation debate. The high target of $1,300 likely assumes a sustained advisory and trading boom (potentially aided by large IPO fees such as the Anthropic listing), multiple expansion back toward prior peak levels, and continued buyback-driven EPS accretion; the low target of $730 prices in a sharp cyclical downturn in trading and advisory revenues, margin compression as compensation ratios reset higher, and a de-rating toward book value. Recent institutional actions show a mild positive tilt — HSBC upgraded to Hold from Reduce on July 21, 2026, and B of A Securities, Evercore ISI, and Wells Fargo all maintain Buy/Outperform/Overweight ratings — but the bulk of the coverage sits at Neutral or Market Perform, and no firm has moved to a strong buy, which is consistent with the "hold" consensus and the wide target spread. The practical read is that the Street sees fair value materially above the current price but is unwilling to pound the table until the recent momentum deterioration stabilizes.
Bulls vs Bears: GS Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: GS has lost 10.14% in a month, trails SPY by 14.94 points over three months, and sits 38% below its 52-week high with a 22.17% drawdown from the July peak. The bull case rests on valuation and forward earnings — a 12.36x forward PE, 0.65 PEG, and a $1,116.75 average analyst target implying 23.7% upside — but those are contingent on the capital-markets cycle proving durable. The single most important tension is whether the 22.91% Q2 revenue growth rate is a cyclical peak or a durable step-up; the consensus forward revenue estimate of $77.35 billion implies deceleration, and how that resolves will determine whether the forward PE gap closes through earnings delivery or multiple compression. Until momentum stabilizes and the stock reclaims at least the $1,000 level, the burden of proof sits with the bulls.
Bullish
- Forward PE of 12.36x is undemanding: The forward PE of 12.36x sits well below the trailing PE of 16.92x and implies roughly 37% earnings growth from the trailing base to the consensus forward EPS of $78.69. For a franchise generating a 13.74% ROE, that multiple embeds a pessimistic view of the capital-markets cycle.
- Analyst target implies 23.7% upside: The 20-analyst average target of $1,116.75 is 23.7% above the current $902.56 price, even though the consensus recommendation is only Hold (mean 2.6). This disconnect suggests the Street sees fair value materially higher but is waiting for momentum to stabilize.
- Margins expanded sharply year over year: Q2 2026 net margin reached 17.25% versus 11.91% in Q2 2025, while gross margin expanded to 52.66% from 45.41%. Operating margin of 29.99% in Q2 2026 shows the operating leverage inherent in an advisory and trading recovery.
- PEG of 0.65 signals growth at a discount: A PEG ratio below 1.0 indicates the stock is inexpensive relative to its expected earnings growth rate. If the consensus forward EPS of $78.69 materializes, the current price pays little for that expansion.
Bearish
- Momentum has broken down badly: GS is down 10.14% over one month and 11.60% over three months, versus a 1-year gain of 15.80%, meaning the entire annual advance was earned in the first half. The 22.17% maximum drawdown from the July peak confirms the severity of the retreat.
- Severe relative underperformance vs. SPY: GS trails SPY by 10.73 percentage points over one month, 14.94 points over three months, and 14.15 points year-to-date, even as the S&P 500 is up 12.86% YTD. The market has clearly rotated away from this name.
- Consensus rating is only Hold: With 20 analysts and a recommendation mean of 2.6, the Street is genuinely neutral rather than constructively bullish. No firm has moved to a strong buy, and the wide target range of $730 to $1,300 signals real disagreement about cycle durability.
- Revenue growth is likely to decelerate: Q2 2026 revenue grew 22.91% year over year to $38.43 billion, but the consensus forward revenue estimate of $77.35 billion implies a meaningful deceleration from the current run-rate. The single most important debate is whether 22.9% growth is a cyclical peak.
GS Technical Analysis
Goldman Sachs is in a recovery-within-a-range posture: the shares are up 15.80% over the past year but sit at $902.56, only about 39% of the way up from the 52-week low of $740.01 toward the 52-week high of $1,153.99 — roughly 38% below the high and 22% above the low. That positioning is neither a momentum breakout nor a deep-value falling knife; it reflects a stock that ran hard into mid-July and has since given back a large share of those gains. The 22.17% maximum drawdown confirms the severity of the retreat from the July peak, and with the current price below the midpoint of the annual range, the burden of proof now sits with the bulls to reclaim the uptrend. Recent momentum is clearly negative and diverging from the longer-term trend: the stock is down 10.14% over one month and 11.60% over three months, versus a 1-year gain of 15.80% and a 6-month gain of 4.58%, meaning the entire annual advance was earned in the first half and has been eroding since. Relative strength tells the same story — GS trails SPY by 10.73 percentage points over one month, 14.94 points over three months, and 14.15 points year-to-date — while the 1-year relative strength of +0.79 points is barely positive, indicating the market has rotated away from this name even as the S&P 500 (up 12.86% YTD) has advanced. Key levels are well defined: the 52-week low at $740.01 is the line in the sand for the longer-term uptrend, while the 52-week high at $1,153.99 is the resistance that must be reclaimed to restore momentum; a breakdown below the recent $896–$900 area would open the door to a retest of the low, whereas a reclaim of $1,000 would signal stabilization. With a beta of 1.283, GS is roughly 28% more volatile than the market, so a 10% index drawdown could translate into a 13% move here — position sizing and stop discipline matter more than usual, and the 3.78 short ratio suggests bears are not aggressively pressing the name despite the selloff.
Beta
1.28
1.28x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$740-$1154
Price range past year
Annual Return
+12.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | GS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -13.6% | +1.2% |
| 3m | -12.9% | +4.5% |
| 6m | -0.7% | +14.6% |
| 1y | +12.6% | +16.0% |
| ytd | -1.9% | +14.3% |
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GS Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing at a healthy clip but with meaningful quarter-to-quarter lumpiness: Q2 2026 revenue of $38.43 billion rose 22.91% year over year from $31.27 billion in Q2 2025, and the trailing four-quarter run-rate of roughly $118 billion reflects a capital-markets upcycle. The sequential trend is more volatile — Q1 2026 revenue was $17.23 billion, Q4 2025 was $30.13 billion, and Q3 2025 was $32.15 billion — which is typical for an investment bank whose top line swings with trading volumes and advisory closings. Within the mix, Global Markets at $20.6 billion and Investment Management at $9.2 billion are the two disclosed engines, with the fee-based Investment Management line providing the recurring ballast that management has been building since the financial crisis. The key question for the investment case is whether the 22.9% growth rate is a cyclical peak or a durable step-up; the analyst consensus revenue estimate of $77.35 billion for the forward period implies a meaningful deceleration from the current run-rate, which is the single most important debate in the name. Profitability is strong and improving: Q2 2026 net income was $6.63 billion on a 17.25% net margin, up from $3.72 billion and an 11.91% net margin in Q2 2025, while gross margin expanded to 52.66% from 45.41% a year earlier. Operating margin in Q2 2026 was 29.99%, and the trailing valuation data show a 47.48% gross margin and 17.47% operating margin, both healthy for a capital-markets business where compensation is the dominant cost. The margin trajectory is the most encouraging part of the story — net margin has climbed from 12.74% in Q3 2025 to 15.33% in Q4 2025 to 32.68% in Q1 2026 before settling at 17.25% in Q2 2026 — but the Q1 spike (driven by an unusually low 13.2% effective tax rate and a 98.2% gross margin print) should not be extrapolated, and the more representative Q2 figures still show a business earning high-teens net margins. On the balance sheet, leverage is the defining feature of the model: debt-to-equity stands at 4.88x, the equity multiplier is roughly 14.5x, and total debt to capitalization is 82.99%, all normal for a broker-dealer but a reminder that this is a balance-sheet-intensive business. Free cash flow is highly volatile and currently negative on a trailing basis at -$41.52 billion, though Q2 2026 alone generated +$5.60 billion of FCF and $6.11 billion of operating cash flow; the Q1 2026 operating cash flow of -$31.87 billion reflects working-capital swings in a market-making book rather than a structural cash burn. ROE of 13.74% and ROA of 1.07% are respectable for the sector, the current ratio of 0.83 reflects the short-term funding structure of a trading operation, and the 30.72% payout ratio with a 1.92% dividend yield leaves room for the buybacks that have reduced shares outstanding from 324.5 million (Q1 2025 diluted) to 304.9 million (Q2 2026 diluted).
Quarterly Revenue
$38.4B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+22.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
52.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-41.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is GS Overvalued?
Because Goldman Sachs is solidly profitable — Q2 2026 net income of $6.63 billion and trailing EPS of $21.27 — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, and the data show a trailing PE of 16.92x against a forward PE of 12.36x. The gap between trailing and forward multiples is wide and meaningful: it implies the market expects earnings to grow roughly 37% (from the trailing base to the forward estimate), consistent with the consensus forward EPS of $78.69 versus the current run-rate, and it tells you the market is pricing in continued capital-markets strength rather than a cyclical peak. The PEG ratio of 0.65 — below 1.0 — suggests that if that growth materializes, the stock is not expensive relative to its expansion rate, which is the core of the bull case at these levels. On peer comparison, the available valuation data do not include a clean industry-average PE for the capital-markets group, so a precise premium/discount spread cannot be computed from the provided figures; however, the supporting multiples frame the picture — price-to-book of 2.20x, price-to-sales of 2.20x, and EV/EBITDA of 29.96x. A 2.20x P/B for a 13.74% ROE franchise is a premium to book but not an extreme one, and the 0.65 PEG and 12.36x forward PE are the more decision-relevant anchors for a bank whose earnings are cyclical. Historically, the stock's own PE band has been wide: the historical ratios show PE ratios ranging from roughly 8.9x (Q1 2024) and 9.6x (Q1 2025) at the low end to 16.9x currently and 25.8x in mid-2023 at the high end, with P/B moving from 0.93x in Q3 2023 to 2.47x in Q2 2026. At 16.92x trailing earnings and 2.20x book, GS is trading in the upper-middle portion of its own historical range — not at the euphoric 25x+ levels seen in 2023, but well above the single-digit PE and sub-1.0x P/B troughs of 2023–2024. That positioning means the market is pricing in a durable earnings recovery rather than a cyclical trough, so the risk/reward is less asymmetric than it was two years ago; the stock needs earnings delivery, not just multiple expansion, to work from here.
PE
16.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 6x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
30.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are dominated by the inherent leverage of the broker-dealer model: debt-to-equity of 4.88x, an equity multiplier of roughly 14.5x, and total debt to capitalization of 82.99% mean a modest deterioration in asset values or trading marks can hit book equity disproportionately. Free cash flow is negative on a trailing basis at -$41.52 billion, and Q1 2026 operating cash flow was -$31.87 billion, reflecting working-capital swings in a market-making book rather than a structural burn — but it underscores that cash generation is volatile and not a reliable cushion. Revenue concentration in capital-markets activity is the core operational risk: Global Markets contributed $20.6 billion and Investment Management $9.2 billion in Q2 2026, and a sharp slowdown in trading volumes or advisory closings would hit the top line quickly, as the sequential revenue swing from $32.15 billion in Q3 2025 to $17.23 billion in Q1 2026 demonstrates. The 30.72% payout ratio and 1.92% dividend yield are manageable, but buybacks that reduced diluted shares from 324.5 million to 304.9 million depend on continued earnings strength.
Market and competitive risks center on valuation compression and sector rotation. At 16.92x trailing earnings and 2.20x book, GS trades in the upper-middle of its own historical range — well above the single-digit PE and sub-1.0x P/B troughs of 2023–2024 but below the 25.8x PE seen in mid-2023 — meaning the market is pricing a durable recovery rather than a cyclical trough. With a beta of 1.283, GS is roughly 28% more volatile than the market, so a 10% index drawdown could translate into a 13% move here, and the recent relative underperformance (trailing SPY by 14.94 points over three months) shows the stock is already being de-rated in a rising market. Competitive pressure is persistent: PNC's 65.9% surge in capital-markets revenue and raised fee-income guidance signal that regional banks are gaining share in advisory and underwriting, while rising global bond yields and higher-for-longer rates pressure the rate-sensitive financials complex. The short ratio of 3.78 suggests bears are not aggressively pressing the name, but the wide analyst target range of $730 to $1,300 reflects genuine disagreement about the cycle.
The worst-case scenario is a sharp cyclical downturn in trading and advisory revenues combined with margin compression as compensation ratios reset higher. In that chain of events, the stock would de-rate toward book value, consistent with the analyst low target of $730 — roughly 19% below the current $902.56 price — and potentially retest the 52-week low of $740.01, which is about 18% below the current price. A breakdown below the recent $896–$900 support area would open the door to that retest, and from the July peak of $1,152.07 the drawdown would exceed 35%. The realistic downside from the current price is therefore -18% to -19% to the $730–$740 zone, with a tail scenario toward the 2023–2024 valuation troughs implying a deeper de-rating if earnings estimates are cut materially.
FAQ
The most severe risk is cyclical: revenue growth of 22.91% in Q2 2026 may be a peak, and the consensus forward revenue estimate of $77.35 billion implies deceleration, which could compress both earnings and the multiple. Second is balance-sheet leverage — debt-to-equity of 4.88x and total debt to capitalization of 82.99% mean a credit or trading shock hits book equity disproportionately, and trailing free cash flow is -$41.52 billion. Third is market/valuation risk: with a beta of 1.283, a 10% index drawdown could translate into a 13% move, and the stock already trails SPY by 14.94 points over three months. Fourth is competitive pressure, evidenced by PNC's 65.9% surge in capital-markets revenue, which could erode Goldman's advisory and underwriting share.
The 12-month forecast is split: a 50% probability base case targets $1,050–$1,120, aligned with the analyst average of $1,116.75, assuming forward EPS of $78.69 is achieved and net margin holds above 15%. A 25% probability bull case targets $1,150–$1,300, driven by an Anthropic IPO fee windfall and a broad capital-markets boom. A 25% probability bear case targets $730–$800, aligned with the analyst low of $730 and the 52-week low of $740.01, if revenue growth turns negative and compensation ratios reset higher. The base case is most likely, and its key assumption is that the 22.91% Q2 revenue growth rate decelerates gracefully rather than reversing.
GS appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued on forward earnings but rich relative to its own recent history. The trailing PE of 16.92x and price-to-book of 2.20x sit in the upper-middle of the stock's historical range — well above the single-digit PE and sub-1.0x P/B troughs of 2023–2024 but below the 25.8x PE seen in mid-2023. The forward PE of 12.36x and PEG of 0.65 suggest the market is paying a fair price for expected growth of roughly 37% to the consensus forward EPS of $78.69. The market is pricing a durable earnings recovery rather than a cyclical trough, so the stock needs earnings delivery, not multiple expansion, to work from here. If forward estimates hold, the valuation is supportive; if they are cut, the current multiple would look expensive.
From a risk/reward perspective, GS is a reasonable buy for patient investors but not an urgent one. The average analyst target of $1,116.75 implies 23.7% upside, and the 12.36x forward PE with a 0.65 PEG is undemanding for a 13.74% ROE franchise. However, the stock is down 10.14% over one month and trails SPY by 14.94 points over three months, and the consensus rating is only Hold (mean 2.6). The biggest downside risk is a retest of the 52-week low at $740.01, roughly 18% below the current price, if the capital-markets cycle rolls over. It is a good buy for investors with a 12–24 month horizon who can tolerate 1.283 beta volatility, ideally accumulating on weakness toward $850–$900 rather than chasing.
GS is better suited for long-term holding than short-term trading. It is a mature, cyclical franchise with a 1.92% dividend yield and a 30.72% payout ratio, and its earnings visibility is limited by quarter-to-quarter swings in trading and advisory revenue — Q1 2026 revenue of $17.23 billion versus Q4 2025's $30.13 billion illustrates the lumpiness. The beta of 1.283 and 22.17% max drawdown make short-term trading risky without tight stops, and the 3.78 short ratio suggests limited near-term squeeze potential. A minimum holding period of 12–24 months is appropriate to ride out the capital-markets cycle and capture the buyback-driven EPS accretion, which has reduced diluted shares from 324.5 million to 304.9 million.