Halliburton
HAL
$33.19
-2.35%
Halliburton is North America's largest oilfield-services company by market share, providing hydraulic fracturing, completions, drilling fluids, directional drilling, and reservoir evaluation services to exploration and production operators across the global energy industry. Its competitive identity is anchored in completions and production — roughly half of revenue — where it holds a leading position in the fragmented pressure-pumping market, complemented by a strong drilling and evaluation franchise that leverages material-science expertise; it is best understood as the North American completions leader rather than a global reservoir-evaluation specialist like SLB. The current investor narrative centers on the durability of the international and offshore upcycle against a maturing North American shale cycle, with recent headlines highlighting a major Indonesia partnership to revive aging oil fields, a strategic pivot toward Argentina's Vaca Muerta, and competitive pressure from regional players such as NESR in the Middle East. Sentiment is also being shaped by the violent swings in crude prices tied to Strait of Hormuz geopolitics, which cut both ways for service demand, while the stock's sharp year-over-year outperformance against a flat recent tape frames the debate over whether the cycle has peaked or is merely consolidating.…
HAL
Halliburton
$33.19
Related headlines
HAL 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Halliburton's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $43.68 and implied upside of +31.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$43.68
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+31.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$29 - $51
Analyst target range
Coverage is deep and constructive: 25 analysts cover Halliburton with a consensus recommendation of "buy" and a mean rating of 1.75 (where 1.0 is a strong buy), and the average target price of $43.40 implies roughly 29.6% upside from the current $33.50. The consensus leans clearly bullish, with the average target sitting essentially at the 52-week high of $43.59, and the estimated forward EPS of $4.13 and revenue of $27.73 billion underpin expectations for a meaningful earnings recovery from the current trough. Recent institutional actions are mixed but net positive — Piper Sandler upgraded to Overweight from Neutral in July, Freedom Broker moved to Hold from Sell, and Barclays, Morgan Stanley, TD Cowen, and Evercore ISI all reiterated Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings around the Q2 print, while UBS has stayed Neutral.
The target range of $29.00 to $53.00 is wide — a 83% spread from low to high — which signals genuine disagreement about the cycle's trajectory rather than uniform conviction. The $53 high target implies roughly 58% upside and would require multiple expansion toward the mid-teens forward PE alongside an earnings recovery and international/offshore contract wins such as the Indonesia partnership and Vaca Muerta positioning; the $29 low target implies about 13% downside and prices in continued North American pricing pressure, margin compression, and a flattening rig count. The wide dispersion, combined with the elevated 3.1 short ratio and the stock's 23% drawdown from its high, suggests the market is caught between a cheap forward multiple and real cyclical risk — a setup where the consensus upside is attractive but position sizing should respect the beta of 0.839 and the 27.4% max drawdown.
Bulls vs Bears: HAL Investment Factors
The bull case rests on valuation and cash generation: an 11.55x forward PE, 7.19x EV/EBITDA, ~7.3% FCF yield, and a 29.6% consensus upside to a $43.40 average target, backed by a margin recovery from the Q3 2025 trough and international growth optionality in Indonesia and Vaca Muerta. The bear case rests on deteriorating fundamentals and momentum: gross margin has fallen from 18.29% to 14.07% over two years, revenue has been stuck in a $5.4-$5.7 billion band for six quarters, and the stock trails SPY by 17.31 points over six months. On balance the bull evidence is currently stronger on a risk/reward basis because the valuation already discounts mid-cycle earnings and the balance sheet is fortress-like, but the bear case has the stronger near-term momentum evidence. The single most important tension is whether North American pressure-pumping pricing stabilizes or continues to erode — if gross margin holds near 14% and international contracts ramp, the forward multiple re-rates; if margin breaks below 13%, the earnings recovery embedded in the $4.13 consensus EPS becomes unachievable and the low target of $29 comes into play.
Bullish
- Forward PE of 11.55x is deeply discounted: HAL trades at 11.55x forward earnings against a market multiple in the high-teens, a roughly 35-40% discount, while EV/EBITDA of 7.19x and price-to-sales of 1.07x sit near the low end of the stock's historical 3.2x-6.4x PS band. The market is pricing mid-cycle rather than peak earnings, limiting downside if activity merely holds.
- Analyst consensus targets 29.6% upside: 25 analysts carry a 'buy' consensus with a mean rating of 1.75 and an average target of $43.40 versus the $33.50 price, essentially at the 52-week high of $43.59. Piper Sandler upgraded to Overweight in July and Barclays, Morgan Stanley, TD Cowen and Evercore ISI all reiterated Buy/Overweight/Outperform around the Q2 print.
- Margin recovery from trough is underway: Q2 2026 operating margin of 13.62% is up from 12.57% in Q1 2026 and 6.36% in the trough Q3 2025, while net income rebounded to $534 million (9.35% margin) from just $18 million (0.32%) in Q3 2025. EBITDA margin of 18.25% shows underlying cash-earning power remains intact.
- Strong FCF yield and balance sheet: Trailing free cash flow of $1.725 billion against a ~$23.7 billion market cap implies a ~7.3% FCF yield, and Q2 2026 operating cash flow of $824 million funded $235 million of capex, $143 million of dividends and $208 million of buybacks internally. Debt-to-equity of 0.777, current ratio of 2.04 and $2.048 billion of cash provide ample liquidity.
Bearish
- Gross margin erosion signals pricing pressure: Gross margin of 14.07% in Q2 2026 is down from 16.44% in Q4 2025 and 18.29% in Q4 2024, a multi-year drift from the high-teens that reflects genuine pricing pressure in North American pressure pumping. This structural compression undermines the earnings recovery the forward multiple assumes.
- Momentum has broken down versus the market: Despite a 53.53% one-year gain, HAL is down 2.93% over one month and 4.88% over three months, trailing SPY by 4.15 and 7.57 percentage points respectively, and by 17.31 points over six months. The stock sits 23.1% below its 52-week high of $43.59 and only 54.9% through its annual range.
- Revenue growth is anemic and range-bound: Revenue has hovered in a $5.4-$5.7 billion band for six quarters, with Q2 2026 growth of just 3.7% year over year. The investment case therefore rests on margin recovery and capital returns rather than top-line acceleration, leaving little cushion if activity rolls over.
- Trailing earnings distortion and negative PEG: Trailing EPS of $0.054 produces a trailing PE of 18.72x near the top of the historical 9x-18x band and a meaningless negative PEG of -0.40, both artifacts of prior-period charges. The 38% compression from trailing to forward PE means the market is already assuming a substantial earnings rebound to $4.13 consensus EPS.
HAL Technical Analysis
Halliburton is in a recovery-within-a-downtrend configuration: the stock is up 53.53% over the trailing year, yet it sits at $33.50, only 54.9% of the way through its 52-week range of $21.51 to $43.59, having given back a large portion of that advance since the spring. The 1-year gain reflects a powerful rally off the 52-week low, but the current price is 23.1% below the 52-week high, placing the stock in the lower-middle of its annual range — a positioning that signals neither momentum leadership nor a falling knife, but rather a market that has repriced the cycle lower. Year-to-date the stock is still up 13.18%, so the longer-term trend remains constructive even as the intermediate structure has deteriorated.
Short-term momentum is clearly negative and diverging from the 1-year trend: the stock is down 2.93% over the past month and 4.88% over three months, versus a 1-year gain of 53.53%, a classic deceleration pattern. Relative strength confirms the underperformance — HAL trails SPY by 4.15 percentage points over 1 month and 7.57 points over 3 months, and by a striking 17.31 points over 6 months, even though it leads by 38.0 points over 12 months. The 6-month change of -9.83% against SPY's +7.48% shows the stock has been in a corrective phase since roughly April, when it peaked near $43, and the recent stabilization in the low $30s (from a $31.19 July low to $33.50 now) suggests the selling pressure is easing but has not reversed.
Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the $31.19–$31.54 zone established in late July and late September, with the 52-week low of $21.51 as the ultimate floor, while resistance lies at the $37.63 September swing high and the $43.59 52-week high above that. A breakout above $37.63 would signal the corrective phase is over and re-open the path toward the annual high, whereas a breakdown below $31.19 would confirm a lower-low structure and likely target the high-$20s. With a beta of 0.839, HAL is roughly 16% less volatile than the market — unusual for an energy services name — which argues for somewhat larger position sizing per unit of market risk, though the 27.43% max drawdown and 3.1 short ratio (elevated short interest) warn that idiosyncratic and squeeze risk remain material.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-27.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$25-$44
Price range past year
Annual Return
+26.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HAL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.0% | -1.2% |
| 3m | -0.5% | +3.4% |
| 6m | -17.8% | +7.0% |
| 1y | +26.1% | +14.4% |
| ytd | +12.1% | +12.0% |
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HAL Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing modestly and re-accelerating at the margin: Q2 2026 revenue of $5.714 billion rose 3.7% year over year versus $5.510 billion in Q2 2025, and marked a sequential increase from Q1 2026's $5.402 billion and Q4 2025's $5.657 billion. The segment mix shows Completion and Production at $3.202 billion and Drilling and Evaluation at $2.512 billion, meaning the completions franchise still drives the majority of the top line and therefore the cyclical sensitivity. The multi-quarter trajectory is one of stabilization rather than robust growth — revenue has hovered in the $5.4–5.7 billion band for six quarters — which implies the investment case rests more on margin recovery and capital returns than on top-line acceleration.
Profitability has improved meaningfully off a depressed base: Q2 2026 net income of $534 million (9.35% net margin) compares with just $18 million in Q3 2025 (0.32% margin) and $472 million in Q2 2025, while gross margin of 14.07% remains below the 16.44% recorded in Q4 2025 and the 18.29% in Q4 2024. Operating margin of 13.62% in Q2 2026 is up from 12.57% in Q1 2026 and 6.36% in the trough Q3 2025, and EBITDA margin of 18.25% shows the underlying cash-earning power is intact despite GAAP margin compression from below-the-line items. The trend is one of margin recovery from a one-off-burdened quarter, but the multi-year drift in gross margin from the high-teens toward 14% is a genuine headwind that reflects pricing pressure in North American pressure pumping.
Balance-sheet and cash-flow health are solid: debt-to-equity of 0.777, a current ratio of 2.04, and $2.048 billion of cash at the end of Q2 2026 provide ample liquidity, while trailing free cash flow of $1.725 billion against a $23.7 billion market cap implies an FCF yield of roughly 7.3%. Q2 2026 operating cash flow of $824 million funded $235 million of capex, $143 million of dividends, and $208 million of buybacks, demonstrating that growth and shareholder returns are internally financed. ROE of 12.26% and ROA of 7.26% are respectable for the sector, and interest coverage of roughly 9.4x (Q2 2026 operating income of $778 million vs. $83 million interest expense) leaves comfortable headroom, though the 45.1% payout ratio and 2.44% dividend yield mean the dividend is well covered but not the primary return driver.
Quarterly Revenue
$5.7B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+3.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
14.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HAL Overvalued?
Because Halliburton is profitable — Q2 2026 net income of $534 million and trailing EPS of $0.054 (distorted by prior-period charges) — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, and here the trailing PE of 18.72x versus a forward PE of 11.55x is the key signal. The 38% compression from trailing to forward multiple implies the market expects a substantial earnings rebound, consistent with consensus EPS of $4.13 for the forward period versus the depressed trailing figure; on forward earnings the stock trades at a genuinely modest 11.6x, which is the more economically meaningful anchor given the trough-year distortion in trailing EPS.
Against the broader market and its own sector, HAL screens cheap on most measures: a price-to-sales ratio of 1.07x, EV/sales of 1.50x, EV/EBITDA of 7.19x, and price-to-cash-flow of 8.10x are all well below the multiples typically commanded by large-cap energy services leaders, and the 2.27x price-to-book is modest for a franchise with 12.3% ROE. The forward PE of 11.55x versus a market multiple in the high-teens represents a discount of roughly 35–40%, which is only partly justified by the cyclicality of oilfield services and the margin compression visible in gross margins falling from 18.3% to 14.1%. On EV/EBITDA of 7.2x, the stock is pricing in mid-cycle rather than peak earnings, suggesting limited downside if activity holds.
Historically, HAL's PE has ranged from roughly 9x to 18x over the past several years, with the trailing 18.72x sitting near the top of that band — but that is an artifact of depressed trailing earnings rather than genuine multiple expansion, since the historical series shows PE readings of 9.3x in Q2 2025 and 10.1x in Q4 2025 when earnings were cleaner. The price-to-sales ratio of 1.07x, by contrast, is near the low end of its historical 3.2x–6.4x range, and price-to-book of 2.27x is near the bottom of its 1.7x–4.5x band, indicating the market is valuing Halliburton's revenue and asset base at historically conservative levels. The negative PEG ratio of -0.40 is not meaningful given the earnings trough, but the combination of low PS, low P/B, and a forward PE in the low-teens suggests the stock embeds cautious expectations rather than optimism.
PE
18.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 6x~26x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on margin compression and revenue stagnation. Gross margin has fallen from 18.29% in Q4 2024 to 16.44% in Q4 2025 and 14.07% in Q2 2026, a roughly 420-basis-point erosion that directly threatens the earnings recovery implied by the 11.55x forward PE on $4.13 consensus EPS. Revenue has been range-bound between $5.4 and $5.7 billion for six quarters with only 3.7% year-over-year growth in Q2 2026, and the completions segment at $3.202 billion of the $5.714 billion total means roughly 56% of the top line is exposed to the maturing North American shale cycle. The balance sheet itself is not the risk — debt-to-equity of 0.777, current ratio of 2.04, $2.048 billion of cash and ~9.4x interest coverage are comfortable — but the 45.1% payout ratio and 2.44% dividend yield leave limited room for a dividend increase if earnings disappoint.\n\nMarket and competitive risks are dominated by valuation cyclicality and competitive encroachment. HAL's beta of 0.839 makes it roughly 16% less volatile than the market, but the 27.43% max drawdown and 3.1 short ratio show idiosyncratic risk remains material, and the stock already trails SPY by 17.31 points over six months despite a 53.53% one-year gain. Regional players such as NESR, whose Jafurah ramp-up in the Middle East is flagged as a competitive threat to HAL, are contesting international share, while the violent swings in crude tied to Strait of Hormuz geopolitics — including a 14% crude plunge when Iran reopened the strait — cut both ways for service demand. The 83% spread in analyst targets ($29 to $53) reflects genuine disagreement about whether the cycle has peaked, and any sector rotation out of energy services would compress the multiple further.\n\nThe worst-case scenario is a synchronized North American pricing war combined with a crude pullback: pressure-pumping pricing deteriorates further, gross margin breaks below 13%, the $4.13 consensus EPS proves unreachable, and the forward multiple de-rates toward the historical low end. In that chain, the stock would first test the $31.19-$31.54 support zone, then the $29 analyst low target (about 13% downside from $33.50), and in a severe cycle reset could approach the $21.51 52-week low — a roughly 36% loss from the current price. The 27.43% max drawdown already observed is a realistic intermediate marker of how much damage a single adverse cycle can inflict.

