Halliburton
HAL
$35.34
-0.98%
Halliburton Company is a leading oilfield services provider, offering a comprehensive suite of products and services for the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas, operating primarily in the Energy sector. As North America's largest oilfield-services company by market share, it holds a dominant position in hydraulic fracturing and completions, which accounts for nearly half of its revenue, and also maintains strong positions in drilling fluids and directional drilling. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic pivot toward international growth, highlighted by a major Indonesia deal and expansion in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale, while navigating volatile oil prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which have recently caused crude price swings and impacted drilling activity expectations.…
HAL
Halliburton
$35.34
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy HAL Today?
Based on the analysis, HAL is rated a Buy with a thesis that international expansion and cost efficiencies will drive earnings growth, justifying the current valuation. The consensus recommendation is Buy with an average target of $43.20, implying a 22% upside. Key supporting data: forward PE of 12.15x is attractive relative to historical averages, revenue growth is expected to reaccelerate with new contracts, and free cash flow of $1.68 billion supports shareholder returns. However, risks include margin compression and oil price volatility; if gross margins fall below 14% or revenue growth remains negative, the thesis would be invalidated. Overall, HAL is fairly valued with upside potential, making it a suitable addition for investors with a moderate risk tolerance.
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HAL 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses HAL as bullish with medium confidence. The valuation is attractive on forward earnings, and analyst sentiment is strongly positive. However, the lack of current revenue growth and margin compression introduce uncertainty. If international contracts deliver as expected, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, the premium valuation could compress. Key developments to watch are quarterly revenue growth and gross margin trends.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Halliburton's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $43.20 and implied upside of +22.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$43.20
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+22.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$29 - $53
Analyst target range
Halliburton is covered by 25 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.75 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $43.20, implying a +22.2% upside from the current price of $35.34. The distribution of ratings is bullish, with no Sell ratings and a majority of Buy or Overweight ratings, reflecting strong confidence in the company's growth prospects. Recent actions include upgrades from Piper Sandler (Neutral to Overweight) and Barclays (Equal Weight to Overweight), indicating positive momentum in analyst sentiment.
Bulls vs Bears: HAL Investment Factors
Halliburton presents a balanced but slightly bullish case. The bull case is anchored by strong analyst conviction, a compelling forward valuation, and strategic international expansion that could reignite growth. However, the bear case highlights stagnant revenue, margin compression, and vulnerability to oil price shocks. The most critical tension is whether international growth can offset North American weakness and margin pressure; if successful, the stock could re-rate higher, but failure would expose the premium valuation. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls given the low forward PE and analyst upgrades, but the margin trend warrants close monitoring.
Bullish
- Strong Analyst Consensus with 22% Upside: 25 analysts rate HAL a Buy with a mean score of 1.75, and the average price target of $43.20 implies a +22.2% upside from the current $35.34. Recent upgrades from Piper Sandler and Barclays reflect growing confidence in international growth.
- Forward PE Discount Signals Earnings Growth: The forward PE of 12.15x is 35% below the trailing PE of 18.72x, indicating the market expects significant earnings expansion. This is supported by analyst EPS estimates of $4.13 for the next fiscal year, up from the current run-rate.
- International Expansion into High-Growth Markets: HAL's major Indonesia deal and expansion in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale diversify revenue away from the mature North American market. These contracts are expected to drive growth as domestic activity plateaus, with international revenue becoming a larger mix.
- Strong Relative Performance and Momentum: HAL has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past year (+66.07% vs +20.48%), and its 1-month relative strength is +4.54%, indicating continued buying interest. The stock is trading at 81% of its 52-week range, reflecting robust momentum.
Bearish
- Revenue Growth Stagnant in Recent Quarters: Q1 2026 revenue of $5.402 billion declined -0.28% YoY, and revenue has hovered between $5.4-$5.66 billion over the past four quarters. This plateau suggests limited near-term growth from North American operations.
- Gross Margin Compression: Gross margin fell to 14.62% in Q1 2026 from 16.23% in Q1 2025, reflecting pricing pressure in North American completions. Operating margin also declined to 12.57% from 15.29% a year ago, indicating cost headwinds.
- High Valuation Relative to Historical Average: Despite a trailing PE of 18.72x being below the 5-year average of ~20x, the stock trades at a premium to the sector median. The PS ratio of 1.07x is elevated, and the PEG ratio is negative, suggesting overvaluation if growth stalls.
- Geopolitical and Oil Price Volatility: Recent events, such as the Strait of Hormuz tensions and subsequent de-escalation, caused crude price swings of 14% in a single day. Such volatility directly impacts drilling activity and HAL's earnings, making it highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
HAL Technical Analysis
Halliburton's stock has demonstrated a robust long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +66.07%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.48% over the same period. The current price of $35.34 sits at 81.1% of its 52-week range (low of $21.40, high of $43.59), indicating the stock is trading closer to its highs, which suggests strong momentum but also potential overextension. This positioning near the upper end of the range reflects investor optimism about the energy sector's prospects, though it also implies that the stock may be vulnerable to profit-taking if sentiment shifts.
Beta
0.75
0.75x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-27.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$21-$44
Price range past year
Annual Return
+66.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HAL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +7.0% | +3.6% |
| 3m | -14.8% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +0.7% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +66.1% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +19.4% | +12.3% |
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HAL Fundamental Analysis
Halliburton's revenue trajectory shows a slight deceleration, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $5.402 billion, a marginal YoY decline of -0.28% compared to the prior year. Over the past four quarters, revenue has been relatively stable, ranging from $5.4 billion to $5.657 billion, indicating a plateau in activity levels. The Completion and Production segment generated $3.016 billion, while Drilling and Evaluation contributed $2.386 billion, with the former driving the majority of revenue but facing pricing pressures in North America. This stagnation suggests that growth is increasingly reliant on international markets and new contracts, such as the Indonesia deal, to offset domestic softness.
Quarterly Revenue
$5.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
14.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HAL Overvalued?
Given Halliburton's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 18.72x, while the forward PE is 12.15x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth, with the forward multiple implying a 35% discount to trailing earnings. This gap suggests that analysts anticipate a substantial improvement in profitability, likely driven by cost efficiencies and international expansion. The current PE of 18.72x is below the company's 5-year average PE of approximately 20x, suggesting that the stock is trading at a slight discount to its historical norm, which could indicate value relative to its own history.
PE
18.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 6x~33x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78, which is manageable but not negligible, and interest expenses of $104 million in Q1 2026. The company's net margin of 5.78% is thin, leaving little room for cost overruns. Revenue concentration in North America (over 50% of revenue) exposes HAL to regional pricing pressures, as evidenced by the -0.28% YoY revenue decline. Additionally, the negative PEG ratio (-0.40) suggests that the market may be pricing in unrealistic growth expectations, creating downside risk if earnings disappoint.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Oil price volatility, as a drop below $60 could significantly reduce drilling activity and earnings. 2) Margin compression, as gross margins have declined from 16.2% to 14.6% over the past year, indicating pricing pressure. 3) Geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the Middle East, which can cause sudden oil price swings. 4) Execution risk in international expansion, as delays or cost overruns in new projects could hurt profitability. The most severe risk is a prolonged oil price downturn, which could lead to a 30-40% decline in the stock price.
The 12-month forecast is moderately bullish. The base case scenario (50% probability) targets a price range of $38-$45, with an average target of $43.20. The bull case (30% probability) could push the stock to $45-$53 if international growth accelerates and oil prices stay high. The bear case (20% probability) could see the stock fall to $29-$35 if oil prices crash or international projects fail. The most likely outcome is the base case, driven by steady international growth and stable oil prices around $70-$80.
HAL is fairly valued based on its forward PE of 12.15x, which is below the trailing PE of 18.72x and the 5-year average of ~20x. This suggests the market expects significant earnings growth, which is reasonable given the international expansion. However, the PS ratio of 1.07x is slightly above the sector median, indicating a modest premium. Overall, the valuation is not excessive, but it does not offer a deep discount either. The market is pricing in a recovery in earnings, which is a reasonable assumption if international contracts deliver.
HAL is a good buy for investors with a moderate risk tolerance and a 12-month horizon. The stock offers a 22% upside to the average analyst target of $43.20, supported by a forward PE of 12.15x, which is attractive relative to historical averages. However, the main downside risk is oil price volatility, which could impact earnings. If oil prices remain above $70, HAL is likely to outperform; otherwise, the stock could underperform. For long-term investors, the international expansion provides a growth catalyst, making it a solid addition to a diversified portfolio.
HAL is more suitable for long-term investment (3-5 years) due to its cyclical nature and the ongoing international expansion. The stock has a beta of 0.75, indicating lower volatility than the market, but it is still sensitive to oil price swings. Short-term trading could be profitable during oil price rallies, but it carries higher risk. For long-term investors, the dividend yield of 2.44% provides a modest income, and the international growth story offers capital appreciation potential. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to ride out oil price cycles.