HESM

Hess Midstream LP Class A Share representing a limited partner Interest

$36.79

+0.19%
Jun 18, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Hess Midstream LP is a fee-based, growth-oriented master limited partnership (MLP) that owns, operates, develops, and acquires a portfolio of midstream assets in the energy sector, primarily serving the Bakken shale play. The company operates as a critical infrastructure provider, with its business model defined by long-term, fee-based contracts, predominantly with its sponsor Hess Corporation and Chevron, which provides revenue stability and insulation from commodity price volatility. The current investor narrative centers on its predictable cash flow growth and distribution profile, with recent attention likely focused on its capital expenditure plans for organic expansion and the implications of its high payout ratio on sustainable distribution growth, especially in a potentially moderating commodity price environment.

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HESM 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $36.79
Average Target $36.79
High Target $42.308499999999995
Low Target $31.2715

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hess Midstream LP Class A Share representing a limited partner Interest's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $47.83 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$47.83

2 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

2

covering this stock

Price Range

$29 - $48

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (50%)
Sell
1 (50%)

Analyst coverage for HESM is limited, with only two analysts providing estimates, indicating it is a smaller-cap, niche name with less institutional scrutiny. The consensus sentiment, inferred from the sparse data and recent rating actions, appears neutral to cautiously optimistic, with firms like Wells Fargo and Citigroup maintaining 'Equal Weight' or 'Neutral' stances. The average revenue estimate for the coming period is $2.40 billion, with a low of $2.38 billion and a high of $2.43 billion, showing a tight range and modest growth expectations from current levels. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data, but the recent institutional rating actions signal a shift. Notably, Raymond James downgraded from 'Outperform' to 'Market Perform' in January 2026, and both Citigroup and UBS downgraded from 'Buy' to 'Neutral' in September 2025, suggesting a cooling of bullish sentiment likely due to valuation concerns or a less favorable outlook for distribution growth. The lack of a broad analyst target consensus and these downgrades imply higher uncertainty and potentially less efficient price discovery, which can lead to increased volatility for the stock.

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HESM Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend, having gained 22.33% over the past six months and 15.58% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 8.7% YTD gain. Currently trading at $40.05, the price sits at approximately 32% of its 52-week range ($31.63 to $44.14), indicating it is positioned closer to the lower bound of its recent high range, which may suggest a consolidation phase after a strong run rather than immediate overextension. Recent momentum shows acceleration, with a 1-month gain of 8.39% and a 3-month gain of 6.74%, both outpacing the broader market's 4.59% and 8.29% gains over the same periods, respectively, signaling strong near-term buying pressure. However, the 1-year price change of 3.14% lags the S&P 500's 25.03% surge, highlighting a period of underperformance that the recent rally is attempting to reverse, suggesting a potential catch-up trade is underway. Key technical support is firmly established at the 52-week low of $31.63, while immediate overhead resistance lies near the recent highs around $44.14. A decisive breakout above the $44.14 resistance would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend and could target new highs, whereas a breakdown below the $31.63 support would indicate a failure of the recent recovery and potentially lead to a test of lower levels. The stock exhibits a beta of 0.522, meaning it is approximately 48% less volatile than the broader market, which is characteristic of a defensive, income-oriented midstream entity and implies lower systematic risk for portfolio positioning. The stock's relative strength metrics are mixed, showing a 1-month relative strength of +3.80% versus the S&P 500 but a 1-year relative weakness of -21.89%, confirming the divergence between its recent outperformance and longer-term lag. Volume data shows an average of approximately 2.57 million shares traded, and the short ratio of 4.2 indicates a moderate level of short interest, which could contribute to volatility on positive news. The maximum drawdown of -27.08% provides context for the stock's risk profile during adverse periods, which is relevant for risk-averse income investors.

Beta

0.51

0.51x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-27.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$32-$44

Price range past year

Annual Return

-4.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodHESM ReturnS&P 500
1m-9.7%+1.8%
3m-7.1%+15.1%
6m+8.7%+9.7%
1y-4.6%+25.0%
ytd+6.2%+9.5%

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HESM Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is stable but modest, with Q4 2025 revenue of $404.2 million representing a 2.33% year-over-year increase. Sequentially, revenue declined from $420.9 million in Q3 2025, indicating some quarterly volatility, though the full-year trend remains positive, driven by its fee-based model. Segment data reveals that Affiliate Services, contributing $388.4 million, is the dominant revenue driver, while Third-Party Services at $14.7 million represents a small but potentially growth-oriented segment, underscoring the company's reliance on its sponsor relationships for predictable cash flows. The company is solidly profitable, reporting Q4 2025 net income of $93.3 million and a trailing net margin of 21.77%. Gross margin for the quarter was a healthy 63.64%, and the operating margin was 62.25%, reflecting the highly efficient, low-cost operating structure typical of midstream assets. Profitability has been consistent, with net income growing from $70.4 million in Q4 2024 to $93.3 million in Q4 2025, demonstrating an improving bottom-line trajectory supported by operational leverage. Balance sheet health is a point of consideration, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.64, indicating a highly leveraged capital structure common for MLPs focused on distribution growth and asset expansion. However, the company generates robust cash flow, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $584.8 million and an operating cash flow of $245.6 million for Q4 2025, providing coverage for its obligations. The current ratio of 0.85 suggests adequate but not excessive liquidity, and the return on equity of 62.10% is exceptionally high, largely amplified by the significant financial leverage.

Quarterly Revenue

$404200000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.02%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.63%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$584800000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Affiliate Services
Third Party Services

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Valuation Analysis: Is HESM Overvalued?

Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 12.03x, while the forward PE is 13.12x, based on estimated EPS of $2.80. The slight premium on the forward multiple suggests the market anticipates modest earnings growth, though the narrow gap indicates expectations are tempered, aligning with the company's stable, low-growth profile. Compared to sector averages, HESM's valuation presents a mixed picture. Its trailing PE of 12.03x is below the typical market multiple, often appealing to value and income investors. Its Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.62x and EV/EBITDA of 6.48x are key metrics for midstream companies; these levels are generally in line with or at a slight discount to peers, reflecting its stable cash flows but also the market's discount for its high leverage and MLP structure. The dividend yield of 8.25% is significantly above the sector average, compensating investors for these risks. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 12.03x sits below its own 5-year range, as historical data shows quarterly PE ratios have fluctuated between approximately 11.96x and 16.35x over recent years. Trading near the lower end of its historical valuation band suggests the stock is not priced for excessive optimism, potentially offering a margin of safety if the company can maintain its distribution and execute its growth plans, though it also reflects the market's ongoing reassessment of MLP valuations and interest rate sensitivity.

PE

12.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 12x~19x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

6.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple