HIMS

Analysis of HIMS & Co. (HIMS)

Technical Analysis HIMS has experienced significant downward pressure, declining sharply over the past year with high volatility. Trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, the stock shows weak momentum and elevated risk. While not yet technically oversold, the pronounced downtrend suggests continuing downside potential.

Fundamental Analysis Revenue growth remains moderate, supported by a strong gross margin, but profitability has weakened due to rising operating expenses. The company maintains adequate liquidity, though substantial leverage and modest cash flow relative to debt are concerns. Efficiency metrics are mixed, with solid receivables management but weaker inventory turnover and returns.

Valuation HIMS appears significantly overvalued, with elevated multiples across key metrics like P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA. Without clear industry benchmarks, these stretched valuations imply high growth expectations that may not align with current financial performance, warranting caution.

Risk Assessment The stock carries extremely high volatility, with a beta over 2.4 and a severe maximum drawdown highlighting its riskiness. While short interest is low, liquidity risks typical of smaller companies persist. Investors must have a high-risk tolerance.

---

Investment Recommendation

Based on the analysis, HIMS is not recommended for purchase at this time. The stock’s sharp decline, weakening profitability, high leverage, and stretched valuations present substantial risks. While revenue growth and margins are positive, the current price does not adequately compensate for the elevated volatility and fundamental challenges. Investors should monitor for improved earnings stability and a more reasonable valuation before considering entry.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the comprehensive analysis, HIMS faces a challenging outlook over the next 12 months. The key catalyst for a potential rebound is execution on its profitable growth strategy, specifically demonstrating an ability to control operating expenses to improve bottom-line performance.

However, risks remain elevated, primarily from its stretched valuation multiples, high financial leverage, and the stock's extreme volatility (beta >2.4), which could lead to further downside if growth disappoints.

While the consensus analyst target price of approximately $44.67 suggests significant upside, this appears highly optimistic given the current fundamental headwinds; a more realistic target range would be in the high-$20s to mid-$30s, contingent on tangible improvements in profitability and cash flow.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about HIMS's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $44.67, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, HIMS has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

HIMS has demonstrated significant underperformance with substantial volatility over the past year. The stock has experienced a steep decline from its 52-week high, accompanied by a maximum drawdown exceeding 63%, indicating considerable investor pessimism and heightened risk.

The stock's short-term performance remains weak, with an 8.23% decline over one month and a severe 38.09% drop over three months. This underperformance is particularly pronounced relative to the broader market, as evidenced by its -42.49% relative strength, suggesting company-specific challenges are driving the decline rather than general market conditions.

Currently trading at $34.67, HIMS sits approximately midway between its 52-week low and high, though closer to the low when considering the magnitude of the range. The high beta of 2.411 confirms extreme volatility, and while not technically oversold yet, the stock remains in a pronounced downward trend with significant downside risk still present.

HIMS demonstrates moderate revenue growth between Q2 and Q3 2025, increasing from $545 million to $599 million, while maintaining a strong gross profit margin of approximately 74%. However, profitability has weakened significantly, with net income dropping from $42.5 million (7.8% margin) to $15.8 million (2.6% margin) primarily due to rising operating expenses, particularly selling and marketing costs which increased to $232 million in Q3.

The company maintains adequate liquidity with current and quick ratios above 1.6, though the debt-equity ratio of 1.92 indicates substantial leverage. The negative cash conversion cycle of -47 days is favorable, showing HIMS collects from customers faster than it pays suppliers, but the cash flow to debt ratio of 0.13 suggests limited capacity for debt servicing from operating cash flows.

Operational efficiency shows mixed results with respectable asset turnover of 0.27, but weak returns with ROE at 2.7% and ROA at 0.7%. The inventory turnover of 1.48 appears low, indicating potential inventory management challenges, while receivables turnover of 14.5 reflects efficient collection processes.

HIMS appears substantially overvalued based on traditional valuation metrics. The trailing PE ratio of 65.4 and forward PE of 30.6 are exceptionally high, indicating significant growth expectations priced into the stock. The elevated PB ratio of 13.6 and PS ratio of 3.6 further confirm this premium valuation, while the concerningly high EV/EBITDA of 49.7 suggests limited current profitability relative to enterprise value.

Due to the unavailability of industry average data, a direct peer comparison cannot be established. However, the extremely high multiples across all metrics indicate that HIMS is likely trading at a significant premium to whatever the broader industry standards might be. Without benchmark data, investors should exercise caution given the stretched valuations that appear disconnected from current financial fundamentals.

HIMS exhibits extremely high volatility risk, with a beta of 2.411 indicating it is more than twice as volatile as the broader market. This heightened sensitivity is starkly demonstrated by its severe one-year maximum drawdown of -63.12%, which represents catastrophic loss potential for investors over a short period and underscores the stock's susceptibility to aggressive price swings. Such characteristics necessitate a high-risk tolerance from any potential shareholder.

Beyond volatility, HIMS appears to face limited pressure from short sellers, as indicated by a relatively low short interest of 3.85%, suggesting the market does not have a strong bearish conviction against the company. However, as a smaller company, it may still be subject to other risks typical of its size, such as lower trading liquidity which could lead to wider bid-ask spreads and more pronounced price impacts from large trades.