Hims & Hers Health, Inc.

Technical Analysis

HIMS shows severe technical weakness, having lost over 60% in the past year with consistent underperformance versus the market. Recent declines of nearly 45% over three months confirm strong negative momentum. While the stock is not at its lowest point, the magnitude and duration of selling pressure suggest it is deeply oversold.

Fundamental Analysis

The company exhibits strong revenue growth and impressive gross margins above 73%, indicating solid core operations. However, profitability is under pressure with net margins declining sharply, and high debt levels pose a concern. Operational returns remain low, suggesting inefficiency in converting growth into bottom-line performance.

Valuation

HIMS appears significantly overvalued, trading at extreme multiples like a forward PE over 200 and EV/EBITDA of 455. These metrics suggest investor expectations far outpace current earnings power. The negative PEG ratio indicates declining growth expectations, making the current price difficult to justify fundamentally.

Risk Assessment

The stock carries high volatility risk, with a beta of 2.37 making it more than twice as volatile as the market. Major drawdowns highlight substantial downside potential. While there's no significant short interest, the price action implies underlying business or sentiment risks that could lead to further declines.

Investment Recommendation

Based on this analysis, HIMS is not a buy at this time. The severe technical downtrend, profitability pressures, and extreme valuation multiples present substantial downside risk. While revenue growth is strong, the company must demonstrate improved earnings and stabilize its stock momentum before becoming attractive. Investors should await clearer signs of fundamental improvement and valuation normalization.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Of course. Here is a 12-month outlook for HIMS based on the provided analysis.

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12-Month Outlook for HIMS

The outlook for HIMS over the next 12 months is challenging. Key positive catalysts will be the company's ability to leverage its strong revenue growth and high gross margins to achieve sustainable profitability and improve its operational efficiency. However, the primary risks are substantial, including its extreme valuation multiples, persistent negative momentum, and high volatility, which leave it vulnerable to further declines. Given the lack of a discernible analyst target and the current technical and fundamental pressures, a conservative target range would be lower than the current price, contingent on the company demonstrating significant progress toward earnings stabilization. A breach of recent lows could signal a steeper decline.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Hims & Hers Health, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $31.38, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, HIMS has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

HIMS has experienced severe underperformance with a dramatic 63% drawdown over the past year, reflecting substantial shareholder value destruction. The stock has significantly lagged the broader market, indicating persistent negative momentum driven by company-specific or sector headwinds.

Short-term performance remains deeply negative, with the stock declining 14.75% over one month and 44.72% over three months. These losses significantly underperform the market by approximately 48 percentage points over the three-month period, demonstrating extreme weakness and a high-beta, volatile profile given its beta of 2.37.

Currently priced at $32.20, HIMS sits roughly 56% below its 52-week high of $72.98 but approximately 34% above its 52-week low of $23.97. While not at its absolute lowest point, the stock appears deeply oversold from a momentum perspective given the magnitude and duration of its recent decline.

HIMS demonstrates strong revenue growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching $599 million compared to $545 million in Q2, representing approximately 10% sequential growth. However, profitability metrics show pressure, as the net profit margin declined to 2.6% in Q3 from 7.8% in Q2, primarily driven by increased operating expenses outpacing revenue growth. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin above 73%, indicating solid pricing power and cost control on direct costs.

Financially, HIMS shows concerning leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.92 and total debt to capitalization of 65.8%, suggesting significant reliance on debt financing. The company maintains adequate liquidity with current and quick ratios above 1.6, while the negative cash conversion cycle of -46.8 days indicates efficient working capital management where the company gets paid before paying suppliers.

Operational efficiency presents mixed results, with return on equity at 2.7% and return on assets at 0.7%, indicating suboptimal profitability relative to capital employed. The asset turnover of 0.27 suggests moderate efficiency in generating revenue from its asset base, while inventory turnover of 1.48 may indicate slower-moving inventory relative to industry peers in the healthcare sector.

HIMS appears significantly overvalued based on traditional valuation metrics. The TTM PE ratio of 54.79 is already exceptionally high, while the forward PE of over 200 and EV/EBITDA of 455 indicate extreme premium pricing relative to current earnings. The negative PEG ratio suggests negative earnings growth expectations, and elevated PB and PS ratios (12.62 and 3.32 respectively) further confirm substantial investor optimism that isn't supported by current fundamentals.

Without industry average data for comparison, it's difficult to contextualize these metrics relative to peers. However, such extreme valuation multiples typically indicate either transformative growth expectations or speculative pricing. The absence of meaningful earnings growth (as evidenced by the negative PEG) suggests the current valuation likely reflects speculative sentiment rather than fundamental justification.

Volatility Risk

HIMS exhibits extremely high volatility risk, with a Beta of 2.37 indicating the stock is approximately 137% more volatile than the broader market. This risk is starkly confirmed by the maximum drawdown of -63.12% over the past year, demonstrating severe price erosion and significant downside potential for investors. Such aggressive price swings necessitate a high-risk tolerance.

Other Risks

While the stock's profile is devoid of short interest pressure, the extremely high volatility and large drawdown suggest other significant risks are present. These likely include concerns over the company's business model, profitability, or market sentiment, which are not captured by a standard short interest metric. Furthermore, the stock's wild price movements could indicate underlying liquidity or momentum risks that make it difficult to trade efficiently.