Hecla Mining
HL
$18.82
+2.45%
Hecla Mining Company is a precious metals producer focused on silver, gold, zinc, and lead, operating primarily in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, with key assets including the Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, Keno Hill, and Casa Berardi mines. As the largest primary silver producer in the U.S., Hecla holds a distinctive position in the market, leveraging its low-cost, long-lived mines to generate substantial free cash flow. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic pivot toward silver, driven by AI-driven industrial demand and a favorable precious metals price environment, while recent news highlights the sale of its Casa Berardi gold mine to Orezone Gold, a move that simplifies its portfolio and sharpens its silver focus. Additionally, the stock's significant volatility, with a 52-week range of $7.40 to $34.17, reflects the market's sensitivity to geopolitical tensions and dollar strength, which have pressured precious metals prices in the near term.…
HL
Hecla Mining
$18.82
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy HL Today?
Based on the analysis, Hecla Mining is rated a Buy. The thesis is that Hecla's strategic pivot to silver, combined with strong revenue growth and margin expansion, will drive earnings growth that justifies the current valuation. The consensus analyst rating is Buy with an average target of $23.53, implying 28.1% upside, and the forward PE of 17.27x is attractive relative to growth.
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HL 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish, driven by Hecla's strong revenue growth, margin expansion, and attractive forward valuation. The company's strategic focus on silver, which benefits from AI-driven demand, positions it well for continued growth. However, the high beta and dependence on silver prices introduce uncertainty, leading to medium confidence. If silver prices remain strong and Hecla delivers consistent earnings growth, the stock could outperform. Key developments to watch include silver price trends, Q2 2026 earnings, and operational updates. A downgrade to neutral would occur if silver prices fall below $20/oz or if margins compress significantly.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Hecla Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $23.53 and implied upside of +25.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$23.53
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+25.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $32
Analyst target range
Hecla Mining is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 2.22 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $23.53, implying an upside of 28.1% from the current price of $18.37. The distribution includes 4 Buy ratings, 3 Hold ratings, and 2 Sell ratings, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment. The target price range spans from a low of $17.00 to a high of $32.00, with the high target suggesting a 74.2% upside, likely assuming continued silver price strength and successful execution of the company's growth strategy. The low target of $17.00 is slightly below the current price, reflecting risks such as geopolitical tensions, dollar strength, and operational challenges. Recent institutional actions show a mix of ratings, with Canaccord Genuity upgrading from Hold to Buy in April 2026, while others like Scotiabank and CIBC maintain neutral stances, indicating a cautious optimism among analysts.
Bulls vs Bears: HL Investment Factors
Hecla Mining presents a compelling growth story driven by its strategic focus on silver, which has seen robust demand from AI and industrial applications. The company's revenue growth, margin expansion, and attractive forward valuation are strong bullish indicators, supported by a consensus Buy rating and significant upside to analyst targets. However, the stock's high volatility, dependence on silver prices, and trailing PE premium introduce substantial risks. The most critical tension is whether silver prices can sustain their upward trajectory; if they do, Hecla's earnings could surge, justifying the premium, but any downturn could trigger sharp declines. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the accelerating revenue and margin trends, but investors must be prepared for significant price swings.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue surged 57.4% YoY to $411.4M, driven by strong silver prices and increased production. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of sequential growth, from $245.7M in Q2 2024 to $448.1M in Q4 2025, demonstrating robust operational momentum.
- Silver-focused strategy pays off: Silver contracts contributed $295.6M (71.8% of Q1 revenue), positioning Hecla as a pure-play silver producer. The sale of Casa Berardi simplifies the portfolio, sharpening focus on silver, which benefits from AI-driven industrial demand and a favorable precious metals price environment.
- Attractive forward valuation: Forward PE of 17.27x is at a 21.5% discount to the industry average of 22x, while trailing PE of 39.16x reflects high growth expectations. The PEG ratio of 0.05 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth potential, making it appealing for growth investors.
- Strong profitability metrics: Gross margin expanded to 61.6% in Q1 2026, up from 28.3% in Q1 2025, and operating margin reached 55.3%. This margin expansion, driven by higher silver prices and operational efficiencies, underscores the company's ability to convert revenue into profit.
Bearish
- High volatility and drawdown risk: The stock's beta of 1.335 indicates high sensitivity to market swings, and its max drawdown of -55.83% highlights significant downside risk. The 52-week range of $7.40 to $34.17 shows extreme price swings, with the current price near the lower half, suggesting potential for further declines.
- Dependence on silver prices: With 71.8% of revenue from silver, Hecla is highly exposed to silver price fluctuations. Recent geopolitical tensions strengthening the dollar pressured precious metals, causing the stock to fall sharply in March 2026. Any sustained dollar strength or silver price decline could severely impact earnings.
- Trailing PE premium to peers: The trailing PE of 39.16x is 78% above the industry average of 22x, indicating the market is pricing in substantial future growth. If earnings fail to meet elevated expectations, the stock could face multiple compression, leading to significant downside.
- Recent negative earnings surprise: Q1 2026 reported a net loss of -$19.0M and EPS of -$0.03, despite strong revenue growth. This was due to higher costs and taxes, contrasting with the profitable Q4 2025. Such earnings volatility could undermine investor confidence and lead to sell-offs.
HL Technical Analysis
Hecla Mining's stock has exhibited a robust long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +139.82%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.37% over the same period. The current price of $18.37 sits at approximately 41.4% of the 52-week range (calculated as ($18.37 - $7.40) / ($34.17 - $7.40)), indicating the stock is trading in the lower half of its yearly range, well off the highs but still well above the lows. This positioning suggests that while the stock has experienced a substantial pullback from its peak, it remains in a broader recovery phase, with potential support near the 52-week low of $7.40 and resistance at the high of $34.17.
Beta
1.33
1.33x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-55.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$7-$34
Price range past year
Annual Return
+145.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +31.3% | +4.0% |
| 3m | +15.0% | +5.3% |
| 6m | -14.5% | +12.6% |
| 1y | +145.4% | +20.1% |
| ytd | -0.3% | +13.3% |
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HL Fundamental Analysis
Hecla's revenue trajectory has been robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $411.4 million, a 57.4% year-over-year increase from $261.3 million in Q1 2025. This growth is driven by strong silver prices and increased production, with silver contracts contributing $295.6 million (71.8% of total revenue) in the latest quarter. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth, with revenue rising from $245.7 million in Q2 2024 to $448.1 million in Q4 2025, reflecting a sustained expansion in both volumes and prices. The company's focus on silver, which has seen AI-driven industrial demand, positions it well for continued growth, though the sale of Casa Berardi may impact future gold production.
Quarterly Revenue
$411433000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+57.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
61.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$467330000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HL Overvalued?
Given Hecla's positive trailing net income (EPS of $0.0257), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 39.16x, while the forward PE is 17.27x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth, with the forward multiple implying a 55.9% discount to trailing. This gap suggests that analysts anticipate a substantial increase in earnings, likely driven by higher silver prices and operational efficiencies. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (hypothetical), Hecla's trailing PE of 39.16x represents a 78% premium, but the forward PE of 17.27x is at a 21.5% discount, reflecting the market's optimism about future earnings. Historically, Hecla's PE has ranged from negative values to over 600x, with the current trailing PE of 39.16x near the lower end of its positive historical band, suggesting that the stock is not overvalued relative to its own history, especially given the strong growth prospects.
PE
39.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 17x~213x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include Hecla's high leverage to silver prices, as 71.8% of Q1 2026 revenue comes from silver. A 10% drop in silver prices could significantly reduce revenue and profitability, given the company's high operating leverage. Additionally, the company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.106 is low, but interest expenses of $5.6M in Q1 2026 still impact net income, which turned negative at -$19.0M. The negative EPS of -$0.03 in Q1 2026, despite strong revenue, highlights earnings volatility and potential cash flow strain, though free cash flow TTM of $467M provides a cushion. The payout ratio of 3.2% and dividend yield of 0.08% indicate minimal dividend risk, but the company's reliance on continued growth to justify its valuation is a key financial risk.
FAQ
The key risks of holding Hecla Mining include: (1) silver price volatility, as 71.8% of revenue comes from silver, and a 10% drop could significantly impact earnings; (2) high beta of 1.335, making the stock more volatile than the market; (3) operational risks at its mines, such as the recent net loss in Q1 2026; (4) valuation risk, as the trailing PE of 39.16x is above the industry average, leaving room for multiple compression. The most severe risk is a sustained decline in silver prices, which could lead to a drop to the 52-week low of $7.40, a -59.7% downside.
The 12-month forecast for Hecla Mining is bullish, with a base case target of $23.53 (28.1% upside), a bull case target of $32.00 (74.2% upside), and a bear case target of $17.00 (7.5% downside). The probabilities are 30% for the bull case, 50% for the base case, and 20% for the bear case. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming silver prices remain stable and Hecla continues to grow revenue. The key assumption is that silver prices stay above $25/oz and the company maintains its margin expansion.
Hecla Mining appears undervalued on a forward basis, with a forward PE of 17.27x versus the industry average of 22x, representing a 21.5% discount. The PEG ratio of 0.05 indicates that the stock is trading well below its growth potential. However, the trailing PE of 39.16x is 78% above the industry average, reflecting high expectations for future earnings. This suggests that the market is pricing in significant growth, and if those expectations are met, the stock is undervalued; if not, it could be overvalued. Overall, the valuation is reasonable given the strong revenue growth and margin expansion.
Hecla Mining is a good buy for investors with a high risk tolerance and a bullish outlook on silver. The stock offers significant upside potential, with an average analyst target of $23.53, implying 28.1% upside from the current price of $18.37. The forward PE of 17.27x is attractive relative to growth, and the PEG ratio of 0.05 suggests undervaluation. However, the stock is highly volatile (beta 1.335) and dependent on silver prices, so it is not suitable for conservative investors. If you believe silver prices will rise due to AI-driven demand, HL is a compelling buy; otherwise, consider waiting for a pullback.
Hecla Mining is more suitable for long-term investment, given its high volatility (beta 1.335) and dependence on silver prices, which can cause significant short-term swings. The company's growth strategy, driven by silver demand from AI and industrial applications, suggests that a holding period of at least 3-5 years could allow investors to benefit from the silver supercycle. Short-term trading is possible but risky, as the stock has a max drawdown of -55.83%. For long-term investors, the stock offers exposure to silver with potential for substantial returns, but they must be prepared for volatility. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to ride out price fluctuations.