Robinhood
HOOD
$95.10
-0.70%
Robinhood Markets, Inc. is a diversified financial services provider best known for its retail brokerage platform, which historically caters to a young, risk-seeking clientele that trades heavily on margin and in higher-risk asset classes like options, futures, cryptocurrencies, and more recently, prediction markets. As those customers' financial needs have matured, Robinhood has rolled out a suite of more conventional products, from retirement accounts to high-yield cash sweep accounts to nascent advisory services (Robinhood Strategies). With $322 billion in customer assets and 27 million active accounts at year-end 2025, the firm has emerged as a significant player in the large, quickly growing US brokerage market. The current investor narrative centers on Robinhood's transformation from a crypto-centric trading app into a diversified financial platform, with 13 business lines each generating over $100 million in annualized revenue, reducing its reliance on crypto trading and supporting a premium valuation. Recent news highlights that event-based contracts (prediction markets) revenue has surpassed crypto trading revenue for the first time, signaling a shift in retail investor focus and driving analyst price target upgrades.…
HOOD
Robinhood
$95.10
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy HOOD Today?
We rate HOOD as a Buy, given its strong revenue growth, high profitability, and positive analyst sentiment. The consensus recommendation is 'buy' with an average price target of $120.01, implying a 25.6% upside. The thesis is that Robinhood's diversification into prediction markets and other products will sustain double-digit growth, justifying its premium valuation.
Sign up to view all
HOOD 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence, as the company's fundamentals are strong and growth is accelerating. The key risk is the high valuation, which requires continued execution. If revenue growth sustains above 15% and margins hold, the stock could reach the analyst target. However, any regulatory or competitive setback could derail the thesis. We would upgrade to high confidence if the company beats Q2 estimates and raises guidance, and downgrade if growth decelerates below 10%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Robinhood's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $119.93 and implied upside of +26.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$119.93
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+26.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$57 - $164
Analyst target range
Robinhood is covered by 26 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and a mean rating of 1.68 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average price target is $120.01, implying an upside of 25.6% from the current price of $95.56. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the consensus leans bullish, with recent actions from major firms like Morgan Stanley (Equal Weight), Barclays (Overweight), and Goldman Sachs (Buy) indicating continued institutional interest. The target price range is wide, from a low of $57.00 to a high of $163.60, reflecting significant uncertainty about the company's future. The high target of $163.60 assumes continued success in new business lines like prediction markets and strong revenue growth, while the low target of $57.00 prices in potential regulatory headwinds, competitive pressures, or a downturn in retail trading activity. The wide spread suggests that analysts have divergent views on the sustainability of Robinhood's growth and its ability to maintain high margins in a competitive landscape.
Bulls vs Bears: HOOD Investment Factors
Robinhood presents a compelling growth story with strong revenue diversification, high profitability, and positive analyst sentiment, but it trades at a significant premium to peers and exhibits extreme volatility. The bull case is supported by accelerating revenue growth and new business lines, while the bear case centers on valuation risk and dependence on retail trading. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the company's execution and analyst upgrades, but the key tension is whether the premium valuation can be justified by sustained growth. If growth decelerates or regulatory headwinds materialize, the stock could face a sharp correction; conversely, continued success in prediction markets could drive further upside.
Bullish
- Diversified revenue with 13 lines >$100M: Robinhood now has 13 business lines each generating over $100 million in annualized revenue, reducing reliance on any single segment. This diversification supports a premium valuation and mitigates crypto volatility risk, as evidenced by prediction markets revenue surpassing crypto trading revenue for the first time.
- Strong revenue growth acceleration: Q1 2026 revenue grew 15.1% YoY to $1.067 billion, accelerating from the prior year's quarters (Q1 2025: $927M, Q2 2025: $989M). This consistent double-digit growth is driven by new products like prediction markets and retirement accounts, indicating a robust expansion trajectory.
- High profitability with 83% gross margin: Gross margin stands at 83.3%, with operating margin at 46.8% and net margin at 42.1% (trailing). This exceptional profitability, coupled with a 20.6% ROE, demonstrates efficient capital deployment and strong earnings power, supporting the premium valuation.
- Analyst consensus 'buy' with 25.6% upside: With 26 analysts, the consensus is 'buy' (mean rating 1.68) and the average price target is $120.01, implying a 25.6% upside from the current price of $95.56. Recent upgrades from Bernstein (target $160) and others reflect growing confidence in the company's pivot to prediction markets.
Bearish
- High valuation premium to peers: Trailing PE of 53.35x is 142% above the industry average of 22x, and forward PE of 29.82x still commands a significant premium. This leaves little room for error; any growth disappointment could trigger multiple compression and a sharp de-rating.
- Extreme volatility with beta of 2.32: With a beta of 2.32, HOOD is more than twice as volatile as the market, and its max drawdown of -57.26% highlights the risk of significant capital loss. This volatility is unsuitable for risk-averse investors and can amplify losses during market downturns.
- Underperformance relative to market: Over the past year, HOOD fell 13.68% while the S&P 500 gained 20.37%, resulting in a relative strength of -34.05%. This persistent underperformance suggests fundamental or sentiment headwinds that may continue.
- Dependence on retail trading activity: Despite diversification, transaction-based revenues still constitute a significant portion (58% of Q1 2026 revenue). Retail trading volumes are cyclical and sensitive to market conditions; a downturn in trading activity could pressure revenues and earnings.
HOOD Technical Analysis
Robinhood's stock is in a pronounced downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -13.68%, while the S&P 500 gained 20.37% over the same period, resulting in a relative strength of -34.05%. The current price of $95.56 sits at 38.6% of its 52-week range (between the low of $63.515 and high of $153.86), indicating the stock is closer to the lower end of its range, which could suggest a value opportunity or a falling knife depending on fundamental support. The stock has experienced significant volatility, with a beta of 2.321, meaning it is more than twice as volatile as the market, and a maximum drawdown of -57.26% over the period, underscoring the high risk associated with this name.
Beta
2.32
2.32x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-57.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$64-$154
Price range past year
Annual Return
-9.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HOOD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -10.6% | +1.9% |
| 3m | +29.1% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +25.0% | +10.6% |
| 1y | -9.7% | +19.5% |
| ytd | -17.5% | +11.8% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
HOOD Fundamental Analysis
Robinhood's revenue trajectory has been robust, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.067 billion, up 15.1% year-over-year, and a clear acceleration from the prior year's quarters (Q1 2025: $927M, Q2 2025: $989M, Q3 2025: $1.274B, Q4 2025: $1.283B). The company has diversified its revenue streams, with transaction-based revenues of $623M in Q1 2026, but also significant contributions from interest income ($290M) and subscription revenues (Gold Subscription $50M), reducing reliance on any single segment. This growth is driven by expansion into new products like prediction markets and retirement accounts, which have helped sustain double-digit growth even as crypto trading volumes fluctuate.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+15.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
80.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is HOOD Overvalued?
Given that Robinhood is profitable with a trailing EPS of $0.0187 (though this is distorted by a one-time tax benefit in Q4 2024), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 53.35x, while the forward PE is 29.82x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of 1.64. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests the market is pricing in a substantial increase in earnings, which is supported by analyst estimates of $3.50 EPS for the next fiscal year. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (from valuation data), Robinhood trades at a 142% premium, reflecting its high growth and strong margins, but also leaving little room for error. Historically, the stock's PE has ranged from 8.99x (Q4 2024) to 92.05x (Q4 2023), and the current trailing PE of 53.35x is above the midpoint, indicating the market is pricing in optimistic expectations, but not at extreme levels seen in the past.
PE
53.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 9x~92x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
51.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.68, which indicates significant leverage that could amplify losses in adverse scenarios. While the company is profitable with a net margin of 42.1%, its earnings are volatile, as seen in the trailing EPS of $0.0187 distorted by a one-time tax benefit. The reliance on interest income ($290M in Q1 2026) exposes it to interest rate fluctuations, and any margin compression could hurt profitability. Additionally, the high valuation (PE 53.35x) leaves little room for error; a miss in earnings estimates could trigger a sharp de-rating.