IBKR

Technical Analysis

IBKR shows promising long-term recovery, having more than doubled from its 52-week low, though recent momentum has cooled with slight underperformance against the market. The stock is now trading closer to its yearly high but exhibits high volatility, suggesting it may be nearing overbought levels after its strong run. While short-term gains are positive, investors should be cautious of potential near-term consolidation.

Fundamentals

IBKR displays robust revenue growth and exceptional core profitability, supported by operating margins near 77% and strong cash reserves. Despite high debt levels from client margin lending, liquidity remains ample and coverage ratios are solid. The capital-intensive model results in modest returns on equity, but cash flow generation remains efficient, reflecting a stable operational backbone.

Valuation

The stock appears richly priced, with elevated P/E and price-to-sales ratios indicating a premium valuation relative to current earnings. Without clear peer benchmarks, it's challenging to assess whether this premium is sector-typical or excessive. The high PEG ratio further suggests growth expectations may already be priced in, presenting a valuation risk.

Risk

IBKR carries above-average volatility risk, as shown by its high beta and significant past drawdowns, making it sensitive to market swings. Short interest is low, indicating limited bearish sentiment, but operational missteps could affect confidence. Overall, risk is moderate but tilted toward market-dependent volatility.

Investment Recommendation

IBKR is a high-quality brokerage with strong fundamentals and growth trajectory, but its current valuation appears stretched. Investors with a higher risk tolerance may consider it for long-term growth, given its operational strength and cash flow stability. However, those seeking value may want to wait for a more attractive entry point amid potential market volatility. Not investment advice, for reference only.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the provided analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for Interactive Brokers (IBKR):

The 12-month outlook for IBKR is cautiously optimistic, driven by its robust revenue growth, exceptional profitability (~77% operating margins), and strong cash flow generation. However, the primary catalyst for reaching the analyst target of approximately $77 will likely be sustained growth in client trading activity and net interest income, rather than multiple expansion, as the stock already trades at a premium valuation. Key risks include its high sensitivity to market volatility (high beta), which could lead to significant price swings, and the possibility that its rich valuation (elevated P/E and PEG ratios) limits upside if growth moderates. While the fundamental strength supports a positive view, investors should be prepared for potential near-term consolidation given the stock's recent strong performance and premium pricing.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about IBKR's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $77.33, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, IBKR has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

IBKR demonstrates strong long-term performance from cyclical lows but faces near-term headwinds. The stock has more than doubled from its 52-week low, showing significant recovery potential, despite a modest three-month return that has recently lagged behind the broader market.

Over the past month, the stock has delivered a solid 5.82% gain, indicating positive short-term momentum. However, the weaker 0.87% return for the quarter combined with a -3.53% relative strength figure reveals it has underperformed the market benchmark over this period, suggesting a recent deceleration.

The current price sits approximately 76% above its 52-week low but remains about 10% below its all-time high, positioning it closer to the upper end of its yearly range. While not at peak levels, its high beta suggests it is more volatile than the market, and after a strong recent run, it may be approaching overbought territory rather than being oversold.

Revenue & Profitability IBKR demonstrated strong revenue growth with Q3 2025 revenue reaching $2.79 billion, up from $2.47 billion in Q2. The company maintains robust gross profit margins near 90%, though its net profit margin of 9.4% reflects significant interest expense and tax impacts. Operating income margin remains healthy at 77%, indicating strong core profitability.

Financial Health The company exhibits exceptional liquidity with current and quick ratios exceeding 19,505, supported by substantial cash reserves. However, the debt-to-equity ratio of 5.3 appears elevated due to client margin lending activities, though interest coverage at 1.9x remains adequate for its business model. Operating cash flow coverage ratios remain strong, supporting financial stability.

Operational Efficiency Return on equity stands at 5.15%, while asset turnover is low at 0.014, reflecting IBKR's capital-intensive brokerage model requiring significant balance sheet assets. The company generates strong operating cash flow per share of $10.09, demonstrating efficient conversion of earnings to cash. The equity multiplier of 39.2 indicates leveraged operations typical for financial intermediaries.

Based on traditional valuation metrics, IBKR appears significantly overvalued. The trailing P/E of 31.87 and forward P/E of 27.95 are high for most sectors, indicating investors are paying a substantial premium for earnings. This premium is further confirmed by the elevated price-to-sales ratio of 18.71 and a price-to-book ratio of 5.75, suggesting the market is pricing in exceptional future growth beyond current asset or sales performance. The PEG ratio of 2.06, being above 1.0, corroborates that the stock's price may not be justified by its expected earnings growth rate.

Peer comparison cannot be definitively conducted as industry average data is unavailable. This lack of industry benchmarks makes it impossible to determine whether IBKR's premium valuation is typical for its sector peers or an outlier. A conclusive assessment of its relative value versus competitors would require comparative data from similar brokerage and financial technology firms.

Volatility risk appears elevated, as reflected by a beta of 1.258 indicating the stock tends to move more than the broader market. This heightened sensitivity is corroborated by a significant one-year maximum drawdown of -38.66%, suggesting substantial downside volatility during recent market stress.

Other risks appear moderate; a short interest of 3.01% is not particularly aggressive, indicating limited speculative pressure from bearish investors. While specific liquidity metrics are not provided, as a large and established brokerage, IBKR likely maintains adequate trading volume, though any operational missteps could impact investor sentiment.