J. B. Hunt
JBHT
$229.74
-1.90%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services is one of North America's largest surface transportation and logistics companies, operating through five segments: intermodal (48% of sales), dedicated contract services (27%), truckload (6%), final-mile delivery (7%), and asset-light truck brokerage (12%). The company is a market leader in intermodal and dedicated fleet services, leveraging Class I rail partnerships and a vast container fleet to offer cost-effective long-haul solutions. Currently, the investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain margin recovery amid a freight recession and competitive pressures, with recent quarterly results showing double-digit revenue growth and improving profitability. However, Amazon's expansion into third-party logistics poses a long-term structural threat, while analysts remain largely bullish on the stock, expecting continued earnings growth and multiple expansion.…
JBHT
J. B. Hunt
$229.74
JBHT 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on J. B. Hunt's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $294.52 and implied upside of +28.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$294.52
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+28.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$182 - $330
Analyst target range
Coverage of JBHT is robust, with 23 analysts providing ratings. The consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a recommendation mean of 2.0 (on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $296.26, implying a 26.5% upside from the current price of $234.20. The distribution of ratings includes several recent upgrades, such as Citizens upgrading to Market Outperform on September 17, 2026, and B of A Securities maintaining a Buy rating. The consensus leans bullish, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects.
The target price range is wide, from a low of $182.00 to a high of $370.00, indicating significant uncertainty. The high target of $370 assumes multiple expansion and accelerating earnings growth, potentially driven by market share gains and operational efficiencies. The low target of $182 prices in margin compression and competitive pressures, possibly from Amazon's entry into logistics. The recent institutional ratings show a mix of Outperform and Neutral ratings, with no recent downgrades, suggesting stable sentiment. The wide spread between targets signals high uncertainty, but the average target still offers substantial upside, making JBHT an attractive investment for those with a higher risk tolerance.
Bulls vs Bears: JBHT Investment Factors
The bull case for JBHT rests on accelerating revenue growth (19.4% YoY in Q2 2026), improving profitability, strong free cash flow, and a bullish analyst consensus with 26.5% upside to the average target. However, the bear case highlights the recent sharp price decline (-18.1% over 3 months), elevated valuation (trailing PE 31.8x, PEG 3.42), and the structural threat from Amazon's 3PL expansion. Currently, the bear evidence appears stronger due to the recent momentum breakdown and valuation concerns, but the bull case is supported by fundamental improvements. The most critical tension is whether the revenue growth acceleration is sustainable and can drive margin expansion, or if it is a temporary rebound that will fade, leading to multiple compression. Resolving this will determine the stock's direction.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating sharply: Q2 2026 revenue grew 19.4% YoY to $3.495B, a dramatic turnaround from -1.6% in Q4 2025 and -0.5% in Q3 2025. This acceleration suggests a cyclical recovery in freight demand and market share gains, particularly in intermodal and dedicated services.
- Analyst consensus bullish with 26.5% upside: 23 analysts rate JBHT a Buy (mean 2.0) with an average target of $296.26, implying 26.5% upside from $234.20. Recent upgrades, such as Citizens to Market Outperform on September 17, 2026, reinforce positive sentiment.
- Strong free cash flow and capital returns: TTM free cash flow is $1.10B, with Q2 2026 FCF of $253.3M. The company returned $95.9M via buybacks and pays a dividend with a 28.6% payout ratio, demonstrating financial flexibility.
- Profitability improving despite margin pressure: Net margin expanded to 5.2% in Q2 2026 from 4.4% a year ago, and operating margin rose to 7.4% from 6.7%. ROE of 16.8% and ROA of 7.4% indicate efficient capital use.
Bearish
- Recent sharp price decline and weak momentum: The stock has fallen 10.0% in the past month and 18.1% in three months, significantly underperforming the S&P 500. The drop from $274.99 on September 14 to $236.73 on September 16 indicates a negative reaction to news or earnings.
- Elevated valuation with high PEG ratio: The trailing PE of 31.8x is near the upper end of its 5-year range (15x-40x), and the PEG ratio of 3.42 suggests the stock is expensive relative to expected growth. This leaves little room for disappointment.
- Amazon's 3PL entry poses structural threat: Amazon's expansion into third-party logistics, highlighted in a May 2026 Benzinga article, could disrupt traditional freight companies. This long-term threat may pressure pricing and market share in JBHT's intermodal and brokerage segments.
- Liquidity concerns from low current ratio: The current ratio of 0.83 is below 1, indicating potential short-term liquidity tightness. While FCF is strong, a downturn could strain working capital.
JBHT Technical Analysis
JBHT is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +74.5%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +15.0%. The stock is trading at $234.20, which is 59.4% of its 52-week range (low of $134.53, high of $299.76), indicating it has pulled back from its highs but remains well above its lows. This positioning suggests a potential value opportunity for dip buyers, though the recent sharp decline from the high may signal caution. The 52-week high of $299.76 represents a key resistance level, while the 52-week low of $134.53 serves as major support. A breakout above resistance would reaffirm the uptrend, while a breakdown below support could indicate a trend reversal.
Short-term momentum has been weak, with a 1-month decline of -10.0% and a 3-month decline of -18.1%, contrasting sharply with the positive 1-year performance. This divergence suggests a significant correction or profit-taking phase, potentially driven by sector rotation or company-specific news. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 over the past month is -10.6%, indicating underperformance. The recent price action shows a sharp drop from $274.99 on September 14 to $236.73 on September 16, likely reacting to negative news or an earnings miss, followed by a slight recovery to $234.20. This volatility, combined with a beta of 1.289, implies the stock is 28.9% more volatile than the market, requiring careful risk management.
Key technical levels include support at the 52-week low of $134.53 and resistance at the 52-week high of $299.76. The current price of $234.20 is roughly midway between these levels, but the recent breakdown below the 50-day moving average (estimated around $260) suggests bearish short-term momentum. A break below the September low of $224.05 could trigger further selling, while a rebound above $250 would signal a potential reversal. The beta of 1.289 indicates higher volatility than the broader market, which may appeal to risk-tolerant investors but necessitates wider stop-loss levels.
Beta
1.31
1.31x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$136-$300
Price range past year
Annual Return
+66.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | JBHT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -16.1% | +0.6% |
| 3m | -16.5% | +3.6% |
| 6m | +2.3% | +14.6% |
| 1y | +66.5% | +15.8% |
| ytd | +16.7% | +13.6% |
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JBHT Fundamental Analysis
JBHT's revenue trajectory has been positive, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026) showing revenue of $3.495 billion, a 19.4% year-over-year increase from $2.928 billion in Q2 2025. This growth is driven by strong performance in intermodal and dedicated services, partially offset by weakness in truckload. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 4.6% YoY, Q4 2025 grew -1.6% YoY, and Q3 2025 grew -0.5% YoY, indicating a turnaround from prior stagnation. The recent acceleration suggests improving demand and pricing power, which could support further earnings growth if sustained.
Profitability remains solid, with Q2 2026 net income of $181.0 million and a net margin of 5.2%, up from 4.4% in Q2 2025. Gross margin, however, has compressed to 10.1% in Q2 2026 from 13.2% in Q2 2025, due to higher fuel surcharges and operating costs. Operating margin improved to 7.4% from 6.7% YoY, reflecting effective cost management. The company's ROE of 16.8% and ROA of 7.4% are healthy for the industrials sector, indicating efficient capital use. The narrowing loss trajectory is not applicable as the company is profitable, but margin expansion is a key focus.
The balance sheet is moderately leveraged with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53 and a current ratio of 0.83, which is below 1 and may raise liquidity concerns. However, free cash flow (TTM) is robust at $1.10 billion, providing ample coverage for dividends and buybacks. The company generated $370.2 million in operating cash flow in Q2 2026, with capital expenditures of $116.9 million, resulting in free cash flow of $253.3 million. The dividend payout ratio is 28.6%, and the company repurchased $95.9 million in stock during the quarter, returning capital to shareholders. Overall, JBHT's financial health is sound, with strong cash generation and manageable debt.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.5B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+19.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
10.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is JBHT Overvalued?
Since JBHT is profitable with positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 31.8x, while the forward PE is 23.4x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth (approximately 35.6% increase) over the next year. This gap suggests that investors are pricing in a recovery in freight demand and margin expansion, which may be optimistic given current economic uncertainties. The PEG ratio of 3.42 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth rate, potentially signaling overvaluation.
Compared to the industry average, JBHT's valuation appears rich. The industry average PE for Integrated Freight & Logistics is not provided, but the stock's PS ratio of 1.58 and EV/EBITDA of 13.2 are above typical industry levels. For context, the S&P 500's average PE is around 20x, so JBHT trades at a premium. This premium is justified by its market leadership, consistent profitability, and growth prospects, but the high PEG ratio suggests the growth may already be priced in. The forward PE of 23.4x is more reasonable, but still above the market average.
Historically, JBHT's PE ratio has ranged from 15x to 40x over the past five years. The current trailing PE of 31.8x is near the upper end of this range, while the forward PE of 23.4x is closer to the middle. The PS ratio of 1.58 is lower than its historical average of around 5-6x, but this is due to the recent revenue growth and market cap changes. The current valuation suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations, and any disappointment could lead to multiple compression.
PE
31.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 15x~40x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks for JBHT include a moderately leveraged balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53 and a current ratio of 0.83, which is below 1 and signals potential liquidity constraints. The company's gross margin has compressed to 10.1% in Q2 2026 from 13.2% a year earlier, due to higher fuel surcharges and operating costs, which could pressure profitability if not reversed. Additionally, revenue is concentrated in intermodal (48% of sales) and dedicated services (27%), making the company vulnerable to cyclical downturns in these segments. While free cash flow is robust at $1.10B TTM, any deterioration in operating cash flow could impact capital returns and growth investments.
Market and competitive risks are significant, given JBHT's premium valuation (trailing PE 31.8x vs. S&P 500 ~20x) and high PEG ratio of 3.42, which leaves little room for error. The entry of Amazon into third-party logistics, as reported in May 2026, poses a structural threat that could erode JBHT's market share and pricing power. The stock's beta of 1.289 indicates it is 28.9% more volatile than the market, making it sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and sector rotation. Furthermore, the recent 18.1% three-month decline and underperformance versus the S&P 500 (-21.4% relative strength) suggest waning investor confidence, which could continue if freight demand weakens.
The worst-case scenario would involve a combination of a freight recession deepening, Amazon gaining significant 3PL share, and margin compression leading to earnings misses. This could drive the stock down to its 52-week low of $134.53, representing a 42.6% decline from the current price of $234.20. The analyst low target of $182 also implies a 22.3% downside. Such a scenario might unfold if Q3 earnings disappoint and analysts downgrade the stock, triggering a sell-off. Investors could lose over 40% in this adverse scenario, highlighting the importance of risk management.

