KHC

Kraft Heinz

$23.28

-0.30%
May 19, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
The Kraft Heinz Company is a global food and beverage manufacturer, operating in the Packaged Foods industry with a portfolio of iconic brands including Kraft, Heinz, Oscar Mayer, Velveeta, and Philadelphia. The company is a dominant player in the North American market, leveraging its massive scale and distribution network across retail and foodservice channels. The current investor narrative is dominated by questions around its strategic direction and ownership stability, particularly with news suggesting Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO may be reconsidering its long-held stake, casting a shadow over the perceived 'Buffett halo' and putting the spotlight on the company's ability to execute a successful turnaround in a challenging consumer environment.

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KHC 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $23.28
Average Target $23.28
High Target $26.772
Low Target $19.788

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Kraft Heinz's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $30.26 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$30.26

11 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

11

covering this stock

Price Range

$19 - $30

Analyst target range

Buy
3 (27%)
Hold
5 (46%)
Sell
3 (27%)

The stock is covered by 11 analysts, indicating solid institutional interest. The consensus sentiment is neutral to bearish, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings which include actions like 'Underweight' from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, and 'Equal Weight' or 'Hold' from Barclays, Wells Fargo, and Deutsche Bank. The average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, but the implied sentiment from the ratings and the stock's performance suggests limited near-term upside conviction from the analyst community. The target price range is also not specified in the provided dataset. The pattern of recent analyst actions shows stability with most firms maintaining neutral or negative stances, though JP Morgan downgraded from Neutral to Underweight in February 2026 following earnings. This lack of bullish upgrades and the prevalence of hold/equivalent weight ratings signals that analysts see few near-term catalysts for a re-rating and are awaiting clearer signs of a successful strategic turnaround before becoming more positive.

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KHC Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend, having declined 16.62% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 25.19% gain. With a current price of $22.92, it is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, positioned at just 18% above its 52-week low of $21.035 and 21% below its 52-week high of $29.19, indicating deep value territory but also reflecting persistent negative sentiment and potential for further weakness. Recent momentum shows a slight divergence, with a 4.13% gain over the past month contrasting with deeper losses over three and six months (-7.58% and -7.77%, respectively). This one-month uptick, occurring while the broader market (SPY) rose 5.6%, suggests a potential oversold bounce or short-term mean reversion rather than a trend reversal, as evidenced by the stock's significant negative relative strength of -1.47 over the period. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $21.035, while resistance sits near the 52-week high of $29.19. A breakdown below $21 would signal a new leg down and likely trigger further selling, while a sustained move above the recent high near $25.60 would be needed to suggest a more meaningful recovery. The stock's beta of 0.046 indicates it has exhibited almost no correlation with market movements recently, behaving more like a unique special situation driven by its own fundamentals and news flow.

Beta

0.05

0.05x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-29.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$21-$29

Price range past year

Annual Return

-16.5%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodKHC ReturnS&P 500
1m+3.6%+3.3%
3m-2.8%+6.9%
6m-6.8%+12.4%
1y-16.5%+23.4%
ytd-4.6%+7.6%

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KHC Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is stagnant to slightly negative, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $6.354 billion representing a 3.38% year-over-year decline. The multi-quarter trend is volatile, heavily impacted by a significant impairment charge in Q2 2025; excluding that anomaly, underlying sales appear stable but lack meaningful growth, as seen in the sequential figures from Q1 ($5.999B) to Q4 ($6.354B) of 2025. Segment data indicates 'Taste Elevation' (which includes condiments and sauces) is the largest contributor at $2.892 billion, followed by 'Easy Ready Meals' at $1.082 billion, suggesting the company remains reliant on its core pantry-stable categories. The company is profitable on an operating basis but reported a trailing twelve-month net loss, with a net margin of -23.44% due to the large Q2 impairment. However, the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) showed a return to solid profitability with net income of $651 million and a net income ratio of 10.25%. Gross margin for Q4 was 32.61%, which is stable but modest for a branded food company, indicating ongoing cost pressure and pricing challenges in the competitive packaged goods landscape. The balance sheet is a relative strength, with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.509 and a current ratio of 1.154, reflecting adequate liquidity. The company generates robust cash flow, with free cash flow over the trailing twelve months of $3.661 billion, providing ample capacity to fund its 6.63% dividend yield, invest in the business, and pay down debt, reducing financial risk despite the earnings volatility.

Quarterly Revenue

$6.4B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.03%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.32%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$3.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Cheese and dairy
Coffee
Desserts, toppings and baking
Easy Ready Meals
Hydration
Meats
Other products
Substantial Snacking
Taste Elevation

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Valuation Analysis: Is KHC Overvalued?

Given the trailing twelve-month net income is negative, we lead with the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 1.15, while the forward-looking metric, EV-to-Sales, is 1.79. The forward sales multiple being higher suggests the market anticipates some revenue stabilization or modest growth ahead, though the expectation gap is not wide. Compared to typical packaged food peers, a PS ratio around 1.1x-1.8x is generally in line or at a slight discount, reflecting the market's assessment of KHC's lower growth profile and operational challenges. The stock's current valuation sits near the bottom of its own historical range; for instance, its Price-to-Book ratio of 0.687 is below the historical data points which often exceeded 0.85, and its trailing PE from the last profitable quarter (Q4 2025) was 10.99x, which is at the lower end of its historical band. Trading near historical valuation lows suggests the market has priced in significant pessimism, framing the stock as a deep value opportunity, but it also implies skepticism about a return to sustained earnings growth and multiple expansion.

PE

-4.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -461x~96x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-13.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple