Kohlberg Kravis Roberts
KKR
$102.75
+1.78%
KKR is one of the world's largest alternative asset managers, operating across private markets (private equity, credit, infrastructure, energy, real estate) and public markets, alongside a growing insurance segment through its ownership of Global Atlantic. As a pioneer in private equity with over $723 billion in total managed assets, KKR distinguishes itself through its scale, diversified platform, and strategic pivot toward permanent capital via insurance. The current investor narrative centers on KKR's expansion into private credit for 401(k) plans and its $10 billion Helix digital infrastructure venture, which are expected to drive fee income growth, though the stock faces headwinds from a 26% year-over-year decline and broader concerns about liquidity in alternative assets.…
KKR
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts
$102.75
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy KKR Today?
Rating: Buy. KKR offers a compelling risk/reward at current levels, with strong revenue growth, a discounted forward P/E, and a consensus Buy rating from analysts. The core thesis is that KKR's earnings recovery will validate the low forward multiple, driving the stock toward the average analyst target of $124.14.
Supporting Evidence: KKR's revenue grew 31% YoY in Q1 2026 to $4.0 billion, accelerating from prior quarters. The forward P/E of 13.7x is a 38% discount to the asset management industry average of 22x, implying significant earnings growth is expected. The company generated $6.9 billion in TTM free cash flow, providing a strong cash yield. Analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $124.14, implying 23% upside. The insurance segment provides stable fee income, reducing earnings volatility.
Risks & Conditions: The biggest risks are a failure to meet consensus EPS estimates of $9.72, which would expose the high trailing P/E of 50.8x, and a broader market downturn given the high beta of 1.79. This Buy rating would be downgraded to Hold if the stock fails to hold above $90 or if revenue growth decelerates below 15%. It would be upgraded if the stock breaks above $120 with sustained volume. Overall, KKR appears undervalued on a forward basis relative to peers and its own history, but the high trailing multiple warrants caution.
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KKR 12-Month Price Forecast
KKR's forward-looking profile is bullish due to its strong revenue growth, discounted forward valuation, and analyst support. The key risk is execution—if earnings meet expectations, the stock is cheap; if not, the high trailing P/E leaves it vulnerable. The medium confidence reflects the stock's deep downtrend and macro sensitivity. An upgrade to high confidence would require a sustained break above $110 with improving relative strength. A downgrade would occur if the stock breaks below $90 or if revenue growth decelerates below 15%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Kohlberg Kravis Roberts's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $124.14 and implied upside of +20.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$124.14
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+20.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$105 - $153
Analyst target range
KKR is covered by 19 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating of 1.57 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $124.14, implying 23.0% upside from the current price of $100.95. The distribution shows 16 analysts rate it Buy or Outperform, 3 rate it Hold, and none rate it Sell, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. The target range spans from a low of $105.00 to a high of $153.00. The high target of $153.00 (52% upside) assumes successful execution of growth initiatives like Helix Digital Infrastructure and continued expansion in private credit and insurance, driving multiple expansion. The low target of $105.00 (4% upside) prices in a more cautious scenario where market headwinds persist and earnings growth disappoints. Recent ratings from Evercore ISI, BMO, RBC, and Barclays have all reaffirmed Outperform/Overweight ratings in July 2026, indicating sustained analyst confidence. The relatively tight spread between low and high targets (46% range relative to the average) suggests moderate conviction, though the consensus leans decisively bullish.
Bulls vs Bears: KKR Investment Factors
KKR presents a compelling risk/reward at current levels, with strong revenue growth (31% YoY), a forward P/E discount to peers (13.7x vs. 22x industry), and a consensus Buy rating with 23% upside. However, the stock is in a deep downtrend (down 26% in the past year), trades at a high trailing P/E (50.8x), and carries elevated beta (1.79). The bull case rests on earnings delivery—if KKR meets consensus EPS of $9.72, the stock is cheap; if not, multiple compression could drive further losses. The single most important tension is whether the forward earnings growth implied by the low forward P/E materializes, as any shortfall would expose the stock's high trailing valuation.
Bullish
- Revenue accelerating 31% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue of $4.0 billion grew 31% year-over-year, accelerating from 30.5% in Q4 2025, driven by insurance and asset management fee income. This top-line momentum supports the bull case for sustained earnings growth.
- Forward P/E of 13.7x is a 38% discount to industry: The forward P/E of 13.7x is well below the asset management industry average of 22x, implying the market is pricing in a sharp earnings recovery. If KKR delivers on consensus EPS estimates of $9.72, the stock appears undervalued.
- Analyst consensus Buy with 23% upside: 19 analysts rate KKR a Buy (mean 1.57 on 1-5 scale) with an average target of $124.14, implying 23% upside from $100.95. No analysts rate it Sell, reflecting strong institutional conviction.
- Insurance segment provides stable fee income: Insurance revenue of $2.29 billion in Q1 2026 provides a recurring, less cyclical income stream, reducing reliance on transaction-driven fees. This diversification supports a more predictable growth profile.
Bearish
- Stock down 26% in past year vs. S&P 500 +21%: KKR has underperformed the S&P 500 by 47 percentage points over the past year, indicating persistent selling pressure and a lack of momentum. The stock trades at only 22.5% of its 52-week range, near the bottom.
- Trailing P/E of 50.8x is 131% premium to industry: The trailing P/E of 50.8x is more than double the asset management industry average of 22x, suggesting the stock is expensive on current earnings. Any earnings miss could trigger multiple compression.
- High beta of 1.79 amplifies market downside: With a beta of 1.794, KKR is 79% more volatile than the S&P 500. In a market downturn, the stock could fall significantly more than the index, increasing portfolio risk.
- Operating margin remains thin at 5.1%: Despite high gross margins, operating margin is only 5.1% in Q1 2026, indicating high operating expenses relative to revenue. This limits earnings leverage and makes profitability sensitive to revenue fluctuations.
KKR Technical Analysis
KKR is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock down 26.4% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 20.9%. The current price of $100.95 sits at 22.5% of its 52-week range ($82.67–$153.87), indicating it is trading near the lower end of its range. This positioning suggests the stock is deeply oversold relative to its highs, potentially offering a value opportunity, but also reflects persistent selling pressure and a lack of momentum. The 1-month price change of +2.9% shows a modest short-term recovery, while the 3-month change of -1.0% indicates that the bounce is tentative and has not yet reversed the broader downtrend. The 1-month relative strength of +2.3% versus the S&P 500 suggests slight outperformance recently, but the 3-month relative strength of -7.3% confirms that KKR continues to lag the market on a medium-term basis. This divergence between the 1-month uptick and the 1-year decline could signal a potential bottoming process, but confirmation requires a sustained move above key resistance. The 52-week low of $82.67 provides critical support, while the 52-week high of $153.87 represents major resistance. A breakout above $153.87 would signal a trend reversal, while a breakdown below $82.67 could accelerate losses. With a beta of 1.794, KKR is 79% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning it amplifies market moves—a factor that increases risk for position sizing but also offers greater upside potential in a recovery.
Beta
1.79
1.79x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-44.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$83-$154
Price range past year
Annual Return
-28.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | KKR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +3.8% | +0.1% |
| 3m | -0.8% | +5.7% |
| 6m | -21.8% | +8.5% |
| 1y | -28.2% | +20.3% |
| ytd | -20.3% | +10.1% |
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KKR Fundamental Analysis
KKR's revenue trajectory is robust, with Q1 2026 revenue of $4.0 billion growing 31% year-over-year, accelerating from the 30.5% growth in Q4 2025. The revenue mix is increasingly driven by the insurance segment ($2.29 billion) and asset management ($1.19 billion), with the insurance business providing a stable, fee-based income stream. This diversification reduces reliance on transaction-driven fees and supports a more predictable growth profile. KKR is profitable, reporting net income of $405 million in Q1 2026, a sharp turnaround from a net loss of $186 million in Q1 2025. Gross margin improved dramatically to 99.5% in Q1 2026 from -2.8% a year earlier, reflecting a shift toward higher-margin fee income and insurance premiums. However, operating margin remains thin at 5.1%, indicating that operating expenses are high relative to revenue, though this is typical for asset managers with significant compensation costs. KKR's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.77, which is elevated but manageable given the firm's cash-generating ability. Free cash flow was $1.9 billion in Q1 2026, up from $2.5 billion in Q1 2025, and the TTM free cash flow of $6.9 billion provides ample coverage for debt service and dividends. The current ratio of 79.9 is exceptionally high, indicating strong liquidity, though this is partly due to the insurance business's regulatory capital requirements. Return on equity (ROE) of 7.7% is modest but improving from negative levels in early 2025.
Quarterly Revenue
$4.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+31.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
99.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$6.9B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is KKR Overvalued?
Since KKR has positive net income ($405 million in Q1 2026), the P/E ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing P/E of 50.8x is elevated, but the forward P/E of 13.7x implies a dramatic earnings expansion, reflecting analyst expectations of significant profit growth. This gap suggests the market is pricing in a sharp recovery in earnings, which is plausible given the recent turnaround in net income. Compared to the asset management industry average P/E of approximately 22x, KKR's trailing P/E of 50.8x represents a 131% premium, while its forward P/E of 13.7x is a 38% discount. This dichotomy highlights that the current valuation is highly dependent on future earnings delivery; if earnings meet expectations, the stock appears cheap, but any shortfall could lead to multiple compression. Historically, KKR's trailing P/E has ranged from 7x to 120x over the past five years. The current 50.8x is near the middle of that range but above the median of ~30x, suggesting the stock is not at historical extremes. The forward P/E of 13.7x, however, is near the low end of its historical forward range, indicating that the market is pricing in a normalization of earnings rather than exuberance.
PE
50.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 7x~63x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
23.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: KKR's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.77 is elevated, though manageable given TTM free cash flow of $6.9 billion. The operating margin of 5.1% is thin, meaning any revenue shortfall could quickly pressure profitability. The company's net income swung from a loss of $186 million in Q1 2025 to a profit of $405 million in Q1 2026, but this recovery is still nascent and could reverse if investment income declines. Additionally, the trailing P/E of 50.8x leaves little room for error—if earnings disappoint, the stock could face severe multiple compression.
Market & Competitive Risks: KKR's beta of 1.794 makes it highly sensitive to macro downturns, and the stock has already underperformed the S&P 500 by 47 percentage points over the past year. The alternative asset management sector faces regulatory scrutiny and liquidity concerns, as highlighted by Blue Owl Capital's recent redemption caps. Competition from larger players like Blackstone and Apollo, as well as the potential for a rotation out of growth stocks, could further pressure the stock. The 52-week low of $82.67 provides a floor, but a break below that level could accelerate losses.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a severe downturn where earnings fail to meet expectations and the sector faces a liquidity crisis, KKR could retest its 52-week low of $82.67, representing a potential 18% decline from the current price of $100.95. If macro conditions worsen and the stock breaks below that support, the next major support is not well-defined, and losses could extend to $70 or lower, implying a 30%+ drawdown. The historical max drawdown of -44.87% suggests that in a worst-case scenario, an investor could lose nearly half their investment from peak to trough.
FAQ
The key risks for KKR are: (1) Financial risk: a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.77 and thin operating margin of 5.1% leave little room for error if revenue declines. (2) Valuation risk: the trailing P/E of 50.8x is elevated, and any earnings miss could trigger severe multiple compression. (3) Market risk: with a beta of 1.79, KKR is highly sensitive to market downturns and has already underperformed the S&P 500 by 47 percentage points over the past year. (4) Sector-specific risk: liquidity concerns in alternative assets, as highlighted by Blue Owl Capital's redemption caps, could spook investors and lead to a sector-wide derating. The most severe risk is a combination of an earnings miss and a market downturn, which could push the stock below its 52-week low of $82.67, representing an 18% decline from current levels.
The 12-month forecast for KKR is based on three scenarios. The base case (50% probability) assumes KKR meets consensus estimates, with the stock trading toward the average analyst target of $124.14, implying 23% upside. The bull case (30% probability) sees successful execution on growth initiatives like Helix Digital Infrastructure, driving the stock to the high target of $153.00 (52% upside). The bear case (20% probability) involves an earnings miss or market downturn, with the stock falling to the low target of $105.00 (4% upside) or potentially retesting the 52-week low of $82.67 (18% downside). The most likely scenario is the base case, driven by continued revenue growth and margin improvement. The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence, citing the discounted forward P/E and strong revenue momentum.
KKR's valuation presents a dichotomy: on a trailing basis, the P/E of 50.8x is 131% above the asset management industry average of 22x, suggesting the stock is overvalued based on past earnings. However, on a forward basis, the P/E of 13.7x is a 38% discount to the industry, implying the market expects a dramatic earnings recovery. This gap reflects analyst estimates of $9.72 EPS for the next fiscal year, which would represent a significant jump from the current run rate. Compared to its own history, the forward P/E is near the low end of its five-year range, indicating the stock is not priced for exuberance. The market is pricing in a normalization of earnings rather than a bubble. If KKR delivers on those estimates, the stock is undervalued; if it falls short, the trailing multiple suggests it is overvalued.
KKR appears to be a good buy for investors with a higher risk tolerance who believe the company can deliver on its earnings growth expectations. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 13.7x, a 38% discount to the asset management industry average of 22x, implying significant upside if earnings materialize. Analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $124.14, representing 23% upside from the current price of $100.95. However, the stock is down 26% over the past year and has a high beta of 1.79, making it volatile. The biggest downside risk is an earnings miss that could expose the high trailing P/E of 50.8x. For long-term investors who can stomach near-term volatility, KKR offers a compelling risk/reward; for short-term traders, the downtrend warrants caution.
KKR is better suited for long-term investment due to its growth profile and the time needed for its strategic initiatives to bear fruit. The company is in a growth phase, with revenue accelerating 31% YoY and a pivot toward permanent capital via insurance, which should provide more stable earnings over time. However, the stock's high beta of 1.79 and deep downtrend (down 26% in the past year) make it risky for short-term trading, as near-term price movements are highly volatile. The dividend yield is low at 0.68%, so income is not a primary draw. A suggested minimum holding period is 12-18 months to allow the earnings recovery to materialize and for the stock to potentially re-rate toward the analyst target. Long-term investors should monitor key milestones like the Helix Digital Infrastructure rollout and 401(k) private credit legislation.