KTOS

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions

$56.18

+2.76%
May 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. is a technology, platform, and systems developer focused on the aerospace and defense industry, with operations segmented into Kratos Government Solutions (encompassing microwave electronics, space, training, cybersecurity, and turbine technologies) and Unmanned Systems. The company positions itself as a provider of transformative and affordable systems, often acting as a disruptor in the defense technology space, particularly in unmanned aerial systems and space domain awareness. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on the company's record backlog and growth pipeline, highlighted by a recent strategic partnership with Airbus, but this optimism is being tempered by concerns over its extreme valuation and recent sharp stock price correction, creating a debate between its long-term growth potential and near-term valuation risk.

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KTOS 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $56.18
Average Target $56.18
High Target $64.607
Low Target $47.753

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Kratos Defense & Security Solutions's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $73.03 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$73.03

4 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

4

covering this stock

Price Range

$45 - $73

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (25%)
Hold
2 (50%)
Sell
1 (25%)

Analyst coverage for KTOS is limited, with only 4 analysts providing estimates, indicating it is a mid-cap name with specialized institutional interest rather than broad coverage. The consensus sentiment is bullish, as evidenced by recent ratings from firms like Canaccord Genuity, BTIG, and Goldman Sachs maintaining 'Buy' or equivalent ratings. However, no explicit consensus price target or distribution is provided in the data, making a precise upside calculation impossible. The estimated revenue consensus for the forward period is $3.44 billion, with a high estimate of $3.76 billion and a low of $3.25 billion, reflecting a range of expectations. The wide revenue estimate range, with a high estimate 15.7% above the consensus average, signals meaningful uncertainty or divergence in views on the company's growth trajectory. The recent news highlights a record backlog of $1.57 billion and a $13.7 billion pipeline, which likely underpins the bullish high-end targets, assuming successful contract conversions and market share gains. The low-end targets may reflect concerns about execution, competitive pressures, or the sustainability of defense spending. The pattern of recent analyst actions shows reiterated Buy ratings, suggesting maintained conviction despite the stock's sharp pullback, but the limited number of analysts means price discovery can be more volatile and sentiment-driven.

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Bulls vs Bears: KTOS Investment Factors

Overall, KTOS has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

Bullish

  • Record Backlog & Massive Pipeline: The company's record backlog of $1.57 billion and total pipeline of $13.7 billion provide exceptional visibility into future revenue. This is validated by a recent strategic partnership with Airbus, signaling a major inflection point for the company as a premier growth vehicle in defense technology.
  • Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory: Quarterly revenue grew 21.9% year-over-year to $345.1 million, demonstrating robust top-line expansion. Sequential quarterly revenue has grown consistently from $277.2 million in Q1 2024 to the current level, indicating sustained demand momentum.
  • Improving Profitability & Margins: Net income improved to $5.9 million in Q4 2025 from $3.9 million a year prior, showing margin expansion alongside growth. The operating margin of 2.99% and net margin of 1.71%, while low, are positive and trending upward.
  • Strong Balance Sheet with Minimal Debt: The company has a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 and a strong current ratio of 4.06. This provides financial flexibility and reduces leverage risk, which is critical for funding growth initiatives in a capital-intensive industry.

Bearish

    KTOS Technical Analysis

    The stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its 52-week highs, with the current price of $56.18 representing a decline of approximately 41.5% from its 52-week high of $134.00. Despite a strong 1-year gain of 59.60%, the stock is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, at roughly 15.9% above its 52-week low of $34.97, indicating it has given back a significant portion of its previous gains and is now testing a critical support zone. The short-term momentum is decisively negative, with the stock down 18.12% over the past month and 41.53% over the past three months, a stark reversal from the positive 1-year trend and signaling a severe correction phase. This divergence suggests a significant shift in market sentiment, likely driven by valuation concerns and broader sector rotation, with the stock's 1-month relative strength of -22.96% against the SPY underscoring severe underperformance. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $34.97, while resistance is far above at the 52-week high of $134.00. A breakdown below the $35 support level would signal a continuation of the bearish trend and potentially open the door to further losses, whereas any recovery would need to contend with significant overhead supply. The stock's beta of 1.062 indicates it is slightly more volatile than the broader market, but its recent price action, including a maximum drawdown of -60.15%, demonstrates it has exhibited substantially higher idiosyncratic risk and volatility during this sell-off, which is critical for risk management.

    Beta

    1.06

    1.06x market volatility

    Max Drawdown

    -60.1%

    Largest decline past year

    52-Week Range

    $36-$134

    Price range past year

    Annual Return

    +59.6%

    Cumulative gain past year

    PeriodKTOS ReturnS&P 500
    1m-18.1%+4.4%
    3m-41.5%+9.3%
    6m-18.7%+10.5%
    1y+59.6%+28.8%
    ytd-29.1%+9.3%

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    KTOS Fundamental Analysis

    Revenue growth remains robust, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $345.1 million representing a 21.9% year-over-year increase, continuing a trend of strong top-line expansion. For context, quarterly revenues have grown from $277.2 million in Q1 2024 to the current $345.1 million in Q4 2025, demonstrating consistent sequential growth. The product segment, at $230.8 million, is the primary revenue driver, significantly larger than the service segment at $114.3 million, indicating the business is heavily reliant on hardware and platform sales. Profitability is minimal but improving; the company reported net income of $5.9 million in Q4 2025, translating to a net margin of just 1.71%. The gross margin for the quarter was 21.39%, which is consistent with the trailing twelve-month gross margin of 22.15% from the valuation data. Operating income was $10.3 million, yielding an operating margin of 2.99%, showing the company is operating at a low but positive profit level. The trend from the prior year's Q4 shows improvement, as net income was $3.9 million on revenue of $283.1 million, indicating margin expansion alongside revenue growth. The balance sheet appears strong from a liquidity standpoint with a current ratio of 4.06 and a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09, suggesting minimal financial leverage risk. However, cash flow generation is a concern; the trailing twelve-month free cash flow is deeply negative at -$137.4 million, and operating cash flow for the latest quarter was a modest $12.1 million. The negative free cash flow, despite profitability, suggests heavy capital expenditure investments are consuming cash, which is typical for a high-growth, capital-intensive defense technology firm. Return on equity is low at 1.10%, reflecting the early-stage profitability of the business model.

    Quarterly Revenue

    $345100000.0B

    2025-12

    Revenue YoY Growth

    +0.21%

    YoY Comparison

    Gross Margin

    +0.21%

    Latest Quarter

    Free Cash Flow

    $-137400000.0B

    Last 12 Months

    Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

    Revenue Breakdown

    Product
    Service

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    Valuation Analysis: Is KTOS Overvalued?

    Given the company's minimal net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio, as earnings-based metrics are distorted. The trailing PS ratio is extremely elevated at 9.91x, while the Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) is 6.34x. The forward-looking expectation is embedded in the analyst revenue estimate of $3.44 billion, which, against a market cap of $13.34 billion, implies a forward PS ratio of approximately 3.88x, suggesting the market is pricing in significant future revenue growth and margin expansion. Compared to typical aerospace & defense peers, a PS ratio of 9.91x is at a substantial premium, indicating the market prices KTOS as a high-growth technology disruptor rather than a traditional defense contractor. This premium is predicated on its position in unmanned systems and space, sectors with higher growth profiles. The significant gap between the trailing PS of 9.91x and the implied forward PS of ~3.88x highlights the market's expectation for revenue to scale dramatically to justify the current valuation. Historically, the stock's own valuation has been volatile. The current PS ratio of 9.91x is below the peak of 38.27x seen in Q4 2025 but remains elevated compared to levels seen in 2023 and early 2024, which were often below 10x. This suggests the stock has de-rated from extreme optimism but is still not at historical bargain levels, trading more in line with its growth-phase valuation from mid-2024. The current level implies the market has tempered but not abandoned its growth expectations.

    PE

    606.6x

    Latest Quarter

    vs. Historical

    High-End

    5-Year PE Range -305x~774x

    vs. Industry Avg

    N/A

    Industry PE ~N/A*

    EV/EBITDA

    124.9x

    Enterprise Value Multiple