LOW

Lowe's

$224.52

-0.68%
May 12, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Lowe's Companies Inc. is the second-largest home improvement retailer globally, operating over 1,750 stores in the US following the divestiture of its Canadian business. The company offers a comprehensive range of products and services for home decorating, maintenance, repair, and remodeling, with a significant focus on the do-it-yourself and professional contractor segments. The current investor narrative is dominated by the stock's sensitivity to housing market dynamics, as evidenced by recent news highlighting pressure from rising mortgage rates and a derailed housing recovery, which has led to a significant sell-off and a valuation reset debate among analysts.

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LOW 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $224.52
Average Target $224.52
High Target $258.198
Low Target $190.842

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Lowe's's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $291.88 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$291.88

7 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

7

covering this stock

Price Range

$180 - $292

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (29%)
Hold
3 (43%)
Sell
2 (29%)

Analyst coverage for Lowe's is substantial, with recent institutional ratings from ten major firms showing a bullish skew, including actions like 'Buy', 'Overweight', and 'Outperform' from Mizuho, UBS, Truist, and others, alongside 'Hold' or 'Neutral' ratings from DA Davidson and TD Cowen. The consensus sentiment is positive, though the exact average target price and implied upside are not provided in the dataset; the wide range of firms maintaining or reiterating ratings in late February 2026 suggests analysts are monitoring the housing pressure but have not broadly abandoned the long-term thesis. The target price range is not specified in the data, but the diversity of analyst actions signals the high uncertainty surrounding the near-term housing and interest rate environment; the lack of recent downgrades in the provided list indicates the sell-off is seen more as a cyclical trough than a structural deterioration.

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LOW Technical Analysis

The prevailing price trend is a pronounced downtrend, with the stock down 12.63% over the past three months and 5.46% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the S&P 500. The current price of $233.33 sits near the lower end of its 52-week range, trading at approximately 21% above its 52-week low of $210.33 and 20% below its 52-week high of $293.06, indicating the stock is in a deep correction phase rather than presenting a clear value opportunity. Recent momentum shows continued weakness, with a 1-month decline of 1.12% and a 3-month decline of 12.63%, both of which are severe underperformances relative to the S&P 500's gains of 9.98% and 4.14% over the same periods, confirming the downtrend's acceleration. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $210.33, while resistance lies at the recent highs near $293.06; a breakdown below support would signal a continuation of the bearish trend, while a recovery above the $250-$260 zone is needed to suggest stabilization. The stock's beta of 0.965 indicates its volatility is roughly in line with the broader market, yet its recent price action has been markedly more negative, suggesting company or sector-specific headwinds are the primary drivers.

Beta

0.90

0.90x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-22.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$210-$293

Price range past year

Annual Return

-3.5%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodLOW ReturnS&P 500
1m-8.1%+8.6%
3m-21.8%+6.7%
6m-3.0%+9.8%
1y-3.5%+26.6%
ytd-9.1%+8.3%

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LOW Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been volatile but showed a recent uptick, with Q4 2026 revenue of $20.584 billion representing a 10.95% year-over-year increase; however, this follows a sequential decline from Q3's $20.813 billion, indicating potential demand softness. The company remains profitable, with Q4 net income of $999 million and a net margin of 4.85%, but profitability has compressed from the prior quarter's net margin of 7.76%, driven by a significant drop in gross margin from 31.9% in Q3 to 39.2% in Q4, which may reflect promotional activity or mix shifts. The balance sheet and cash flow position is robust, with a trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $7.651 billion, a current ratio of 1.08 indicating adequate short-term liquidity, and a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -0.72, which is an accounting artifact from shareholder equity being negative due to large share buybacks, but the substantial FCF generation provides ample capacity for dividends and further capital returns.

Quarterly Revenue

$20.6B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.10%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.39%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$7.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Building Products
Hardlines
Home Decor
Other Sales

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Valuation Analysis: Is LOW Overvalued?

Given the positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 22.44x, while the forward PE is 17.10x, implying the market expects a meaningful earnings recovery, as the forward multiple is a 24% discount to the trailing figure. Compared to sector averages, Lowe's trades at a discount based on its forward PE of 17.10x, though a precise industry average PE is not provided in the data; its Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.73x and EV/EBITDA of 14.55x provide additional context for its market valuation. Historically, the current trailing PE of 22.44x is below the recent quarterly historical highs seen in late 2025 (e.g., 37.36x in Q4 2025) but above the lows from mid-2023 (around 12-15x), positioning it in the middle-to-lower end of its recent historical range, which suggests the recent sell-off has priced in some, but not all, of the cyclical concerns.

PE

22.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 10x~199x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

14.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple