Intuitive Machines, Inc. Class A Common Stock
LUNR
$23.99
+18.53%
Intuitive Machines is a space infrastructure and services company operating in the Aerospace & Defense industry. It is a key player focused on enabling sustained human activity beyond Earth through its infrastructure-as-a-service model across various orbital domains.
LUNR
Intuitive Machines, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$23.99
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy LUNR Today?
Based on a synthesis of the data, the objective assessment for LUNR is a Hold for risk-averse investors and a Speculative Buy only for those with a very high risk tolerance and long-term horizon. The company's compelling long-term thesis in space infrastructure is counterbalanced by severe near-term profitability issues, cash burn, and a premium valuation. The limited analyst coverage and mixed institutional ratings (from Hold to Buy) reflect this uncertainty. Investment should be predicated on a belief in the company's ability to rapidly scale revenue and achieve the projected $1.83 billion in sales to justify its current market cap.
Sign up to view all
LUNR 12-Month Price Forecast
The investment thesis is binary and highly speculative. The neutral stance reflects a balance between a potentially transformative market position and the demonstrable financial strain of achieving it. The next 12 months are critical for proving the business model.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Intuitive Machines, Inc. Class A Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $31.19 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$31.19
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$19 - $31
Analyst target range
Wall Street analyst coverage is limited, with only one analyst providing estimates for earnings and revenue. The consensus estimated EPS is $0.90, with revenue estimated at $1.83 billion. Recent institutional ratings from firms like Stifel (Hold), Canaccord Genuity (Buy), and Deutsche Bank (Buy) indicate a generally positive but cautious outlook. However, the lack of a consensus target price and limited analyst count suggests insufficient broad coverage to form a definitive consensus view.
Bulls vs Bears: LUNR Investment Factors
Intuitive Machines operates in a promising, high-growth sector but faces significant near-term challenges. The bull case is driven by long-term contract potential and market positioning, while the bear case highlights severe profitability issues and rich valuation. The stock is a high-risk, high-potential reward speculation on the commercial space industry's future.
Bullish
- Strong Secular Growth Trend: Space infrastructure is a high-growth market with long-term government and commercial contracts.
- Recent Contract Wins: New NASA and defense contracts validate technology and provide future revenue visibility.
- Strong Liquidity Position: Current ratio of 4.96 indicates robust short-term financial health.
- High Relative Strength: Outperforming S&P 500 by 17.9% over the past month.
Bearish
- Persistent Unprofitability: Q4 net loss of $40M with negative operating and net margins.
- High Cash Burn: Negative free cash flow of $56M TTM and negative operating cash flow.
- Elevated Valuation Multiples: PS ratio of 9.22 and EV/Sales of 17.64 are high for a money-losing firm.
- Revenue Decline: Q4 revenue fell 18.6% YoY, raising execution concerns.
LUNR Technical Analysis
The stock has shown significant volatility with a strong overall uptrend over the past six months, gaining 65.4%. However, the recent one-month performance of +12.6% and three-month performance of +14.4% indicate a deceleration in momentum compared to the explosive gains seen in late 2025 and early 2026. Short-term, the stock price has recovered from a low of $16.35 on March 30, 2026, to close at $18.56 on March 31, 2026, representing a 13.5% bounce. This follows a period of decline from a recent peak above $22 in late January. The 1-month relative strength of +17.9 against the S&P 500's -5.25% shows strong outperformance. The current price of $18.56 sits approximately in the middle of its 52-week range of $6.14 to $23.32. With a beta of 1.40, the stock exhibits higher volatility than the broader market. No RSI data is provided for further momentum analysis.
Beta
1.40
1.40x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-60.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$6-$24
Price range past year
Annual Return
+188.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | LUNR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +31.8% | -3.6% |
| 3m | +34.2% | -4.0% |
| 6m | +109.7% | -2.0% |
| 1y | +188.9% | +16.2% |
| ytd | +34.2% | -3.8% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
LUNR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue for Q4 2025 was $44.8 million, representing an 18.6% year-over-year decline. The company reported a significant net loss of $40.0 million for the quarter, with a gross margin of 30.2% and a deeply negative operating margin of -73.9%. Profitability remains a major challenge as the company scales. Financial health shows a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -0.50, indicating more equity than debt on the balance sheet. The current ratio is strong at 4.96, suggesting good short-term liquidity. However, free cash flow over the trailing twelve months was negative $55.95 million, and operating cash flow for Q4 was negative $7.3 million, highlighting ongoing cash burn. Operational efficiency metrics are mixed. Return on Equity (ROE) is positive at 11.1%, but Return on Assets (ROA) is negative at -9.8%. The quarterly asset turnover of 0.059 indicates low revenue generation relative to its asset base, which is typical for a capital-intensive, growth-phase space company.
Quarterly Revenue
$44785000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.18%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.30%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-55952000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is LUNR Overvalued?
Given the company's negative net income and negative EBITDA, the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 9.22 and Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) ratio of 17.64 are the most relevant valuation metrics. These multiples are elevated, reflecting high growth expectations in the nascent commercial space sector rather than current profitability. No industry average valuation multiples are provided in the data for a direct peer comparison. The forward P/E ratio of 86.3, based on estimated future earnings, suggests the market is pricing in a significant improvement in profitability. The negative trailing P/E of -23.3 confirms the current lack of earnings.
PE
-23.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -45x~4x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-26.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
The primary risk is financial sustainability. The company is burning cash at a high rate (negative $56M TTM FCF) while reporting significant quarterly losses ($40M in Q4). This raises the risk of future dilution or debt financing if profitability timelines are delayed. Execution risk is also high, as evidenced by the 18.6% YoY revenue decline in Q4, conflicting with its growth narrative. Operational risks include the capital-intensive nature of the aerospace industry and potential contract delays or cost overruns. Market risks are pronounced, with a beta of 1.40 indicating the stock is 40% more volatile than the market. The valuation risk is substantial, as the stock trades at lofty sales multiples (PS 9.22) despite negative earnings, making it vulnerable to a de-rating if growth expectations falter. Geopolitical tensions provide a tailwind for defense contracts but also introduce sector-wide volatility.
FAQ
The key risks are financial, operational, and market-related. Financially, the company is unprofitable with a Q4 net loss of $40M and negative operating cash flow, risking the need for dilutive financing. Operationally, revenue declined 18.6% YoY in Q4, and the capital-intensive business faces execution and contract timing risks. Market risks include high volatility (beta of 1.40) and valuation risk, as the stock's premium multiples could collapse if growth slows. The short ratio of 3.15 also indicates significant bearish sentiment.
A 12-month forecast is highly uncertain. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $16 and $22, as it grapples with profitability while pursuing growth. The bull case (25%) could see a run towards its 52-week high and beyond ($23-$28) on contract wins and sector enthusiasm. The bear case (25%) risks a fall towards its 52-week low of $6.14 if execution falters and cash burn continues. The single analyst estimate projects significant revenue growth to $1.83 billion, which is critical for the bull case.
Based on traditional metrics, LUNR appears overvalued. It has negative earnings and EBITDA, making P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios meaningless. The relevant metrics are its sales multiples: a PS ratio of 9.22 and an EV/Sales of 17.64. These are elevated and imply the market is pricing in tremendous future growth from its current $44.8M quarterly revenue run-rate. The stock is valued on narrative and potential, not current fundamentals, making it highly susceptible to disappointment.
LUNR is a speculative investment, not a traditional 'good buy.' It may be suitable for investors with a very high risk tolerance and conviction in the long-term space economy. The company has no profits (trailing P/E of -23.3), is burning cash (negative $56M FCF), and trades at a high Price-to-Sales ratio of 9.22. Its appeal lies in its pure-play exposure to space infrastructure and recent contract wins, but these come with substantial execution risk.
LUNR is strictly a long-term, speculative investment. The short-term is dominated by extreme volatility (65.4% gain over 6 months but wide swings), earnings uncertainty, and sentiment shifts. The company's business model of building space infrastructure will take years, if not decades, to mature and become consistently profitable. Investors should have a horizon of 5+ years and be prepared for significant price fluctuations. It is unsuitable for short-term trading or risk-averse portfolios.