MAR

Marriott International

$369.15

-0.38%
May 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Marriott International is a global hospitality leader operating a vast portfolio of approximately 30 brands across 1.8 million rooms, primarily through managed and franchised agreements. The company is a dominant market leader in the travel lodging industry, distinguished by its powerful brand ecosystem spanning luxury, premium, select-service, and lifestyle segments, which provides a resilient and capital-light business model. The current investor narrative centers on its consistent execution and cash flow generation, which have allowed it to outperform more disruptive peers, while also benefiting from a broader market rotation into defensive cyclicals as macroeconomic fears ease.

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MAR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $369.15
Average Target $369.15
High Target $424.5224999999999
Low Target $313.7775

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Marriott International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $479.89 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$479.89

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$295 - $480

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage is extensive with numerous major firms providing ratings, and the sentiment is predominantly bullish, as evidenced by recent actions from firms like Morgan Stanley (Overweight), Goldman Sachs (Buy), and Wells Fargo (Overweight). The consensus recommendation leans toward Buy/Outperform, though a notable number of firms maintain Neutral or Hold ratings, reflecting some caution at current valuation levels. While a precise average target price and range are not provided in the data, the institutional ratings indicate strong institutional support and a generally positive outlook on the company's execution and market position. The wide dispersion in ratings (from Buy to Hold) suggests a healthy debate, likely centered on valuation and the sustainability of the travel cycle, rather than fundamental deterioration.

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MAR Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend, evidenced by a robust 41.605% gain over the past year. Currently trading at $369.15, it sits at approximately 97% of its 52-week high of $380.0, indicating the stock is near its peak and may be testing a critical resistance level, which could signal either strong momentum or potential overextension. Recent momentum shows a divergence, with a modest 0.5502% gain over the past month significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 4.84% rise, as reflected in a negative 1-month relative strength of -4.2898, suggesting a short-term consolidation or pullback within the longer-term bullish trend. Key technical levels are clearly defined with support at the 52-week low of $253.56 and immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $380.0; a decisive breakout above $380 would confirm the uptrend's strength, while a failure could lead to a retreat toward the $340-$350 support zone. The stock's beta of 1.107 indicates it is slightly more volatile than the broader market, which is consistent with its cyclical nature and warrants consideration for risk-adjusted position sizing.

Beta

1.11

1.11x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-12.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$254-$380

Price range past year

Annual Return

+41.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMAR ReturnS&P 500
1m+0.6%+4.4%
3m+6.1%+9.3%
6m+24.8%+10.5%
1y+41.6%+28.8%
ytd+17.8%+9.3%

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MAR Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth remains positive but has decelerated, with Q4 2025 revenue of $6.69 billion representing a 4.06% year-over-year increase, a slowdown from the stronger growth seen in prior quarters of 2025. The business is heavily driven by its high-margin fee-based segments, as Fee Service and Franchise revenue contributed $1.43 billion and $843 million respectively in the latest period, while the capital-intensive Owned, Leased segment was minimal at $457 million. The company is highly profitable, reporting Q4 net income of $445 million and a trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $2.898 billion, demonstrating its ability to convert earnings into substantial cash. Profitability metrics are solid with a gross margin of 21.34% and an operating margin of 15.81%, though the Q4 gross margin of 16.53% showed some quarterly compression likely due to mix or reimbursed costs. Financial health is strong from a cash generation standpoint, but the balance sheet shows a negative shareholder equity position leading to a debt-to-equity ratio of -4.53 and a return on equity of -0.69, which are distorted by accounting treatments like share buybacks; more importantly, the robust free cash flow and a current ratio of 0.43 indicate ample liquidity to service obligations and fund continued shareholder returns.

Quarterly Revenue

$6.7B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.04%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.16%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.9B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Owned, Leased and Other
Reimbursements
Fee Service
Franchise
Management Service, Base

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Valuation Analysis: Is MAR Overvalued?

Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 32.03x and a forward PE of 28.21x based on estimated EPS of $20.62; the lower forward multiple suggests the market expects earnings growth to continue, albeit at a moderated pace. Compared to sector averages, Marriott's valuation appears elevated; for instance, its forward PE of 28.21x is at a significant premium to the broader market, though this is typical for a high-quality, asset-light operator with consistent cash flows in the lodging sector. Historically, the current trailing PE of 32.03x is above its own multi-quarter range observed in 2024 and early 2025, which often hovered in the mid-20s, indicating the stock is trading at a premium to its recent history, likely pricing in sustained recovery and market share gains within the travel cycle.

PE

32.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -1100x~55x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

22.3x

Enterprise Value Multiple