Marriott International
MAR
$396.80
-1.78%
Marriott International is the world's largest hotel company, operating roughly 1.8 million rooms across approximately 30 brands spanning luxury (Marriott, Ritz-Carlton, St. Regis), premium (Sheraton, Westin, Renaissance), select-service (Courtyard, Fairfield, SpringHill) and lifestyle labels (Moxy, Aloft, Autograph, Tribute), with 99% of rooms managed or franchised and North America representing 61% of the portfolio. Its asset-light, fee-based model — where managed, franchise and incentive fees drive the vast majority of revenue and profitability — makes Marriott a capital-light compounder rather than a real-estate owner, and its scale, loyalty program and development pipeline give it a structural edge in unit growth and pricing power over both independent operators and asset-heavy peers. The current investor debate centers on whether Marriott's fee-driven growth engine can sustain its premium multiple as global RevPAR growth moderates, with bulls pointing to record net room additions, resilient international demand and aggressive buybacks (over $1.1 billion repurchased in Q2 2026 alone), while bears flag decelerating North American RevPAR, a stretched valuation and macro sensitivity tied to consumer travel spending. Recent headlines — including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz easing oil-driven stagflation fears and a broad rotation into cyclicals — have supported the stock's strong 2026 run, and commentary contrasting Marriott's consistent execution with Airbnb's volatility reinforces the narrative of Marriott as the dependable cash-generating operator within travel lodging.…
MAR
Marriott International
$396.80
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MAR Today?
Rating: Hold. Marriott is a high-quality, asset-light compounder with 99% managed/franchised rooms and $3.132 billion of TTM free cash flow, but after a 49.80% one-year rally to $388.05 the stock trades above the $383.54 average analyst target (-1.2% implied downside) despite a 'buy' consensus (mean 2.17), meaning the easy money has been made and patience is warranted.
The supporting evidence is genuinely strong: Q2 2026 revenue of $7.071 billion grew 4.85% year-over-year, gross margin expanded to 21.98% from 16.53% in Q4 2025, operating margin reached 17.38%, and Q2 free cash flow of $796 million funded $1.119 billion of buybacks plus $192 million of dividends. Forward EPS estimates of $18.94 against a 29.51x forward PE imply roughly 9.4% earnings growth embedded in the multiple, and ROA of 9.76% is well above typical lodging peers. However, the 32.59x trailing PE, 20.89x EV/EBITDA and 2.35 PEG represent a 40-60% premium to a sector trading in the high-teens to low-20s, which is rich for a business growing revenue at under 5%.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are a North American RevPAR slowdown (61% of rooms), margin compression from higher costs, and multiple contraction toward the low-20s that would take the stock toward the $280 analyst low. This Hold would upgrade to Buy on a pullback toward the $328.79 September support (roughly -15%) or on evidence of accelerating net unit growth and RevPAR, and would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 3% or operating margins fall back below 15%. Verdict: fairly-to-fully valued relative to both its own history (32.59x sits in the upper-middle of a 16.5x-46x range) and peers — a wonderful business at a full price.
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MAR 12-Month Price Forecast
Marriott is a best-in-class operator whose fee-based model, 99% managed/franchised mix and $3.132 billion of TTM free cash flow justify a premium multiple, but the current 32.59x trailing and 29.51x forward PE already discount much of that quality after a 49.80% one-year rally. The stock has surpassed the $383.54 consensus target, revenue growth has cooled to 4.85%, and the 53% spread between the $280 low and $429 high targets reflects genuine disagreement about the RevPAR trajectory. Momentum is strong — up 15.85% in a month versus 1.22% for the S&P — but proximity to the $410.98 high and a 1.167 beta argue for patience rather than chasing. I would upgrade to bullish on a pullback toward the $328.79 support or on evidence of accelerating net unit growth and RevPAR, and downgrade to bearish if revenue growth falls below 3% or operating margins slip under 15%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Marriott International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $386.81 and implied upside of -2.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$386.81
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-2.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$280 - $429
Analyst target range
Marriott is covered by 26 analysts with a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating of 2.17 on a scale where lower is more bullish), and an average price target of $383.54 — which implies roughly -1.2% downside from the current price of $388.05, meaning the stock has already surpassed the consensus target after its October surge. The consensus leans moderately bullish on fundamentals but the target math suggests the shares are fully valued at current levels, with the recent 15.85% one-month rally having closed the gap to analyst fair value. Recent institutional actions skew cautious-to-neutral: Truist, UBS, Macquarie, Mizuho, Barclays, Baird and JP Morgan all carry Hold/Neutral/Equal Weight ratings, while BMO (Outperform), Wells Fargo (Overweight) and TD Cowen (Buy) remain constructive — a split that reflects debate over whether the premium multiple is justified.
The target range spans $280.00 to $429.00, a wide 53% spread that signals meaningful disagreement about the trajectory of travel demand and RevPAR. The high target of $429 assumes accelerating international growth, continued net unit expansion, multiple expansion toward the upper end of historical ranges, and sustained buyback-driven EPS growth; the low target of $280 prices in a consumer travel slowdown, RevPAR deceleration in North America, margin compression from higher costs, and multiple contraction toward the low-20s. The wide dispersion, combined with the fact that the average target sits below the current price, suggests limited near-term upside consensus and elevated uncertainty — investors should treat the stock as fairly-to-fully valued with asymmetric risk if travel demand softens, while the absence of recent upgrades (most actions are reiterations) indicates analysts are waiting for the next earnings catalyst before repositioning.
Bulls vs Bears: MAR Investment Factors
The bull case rests on a structurally superior asset-light model: 99% managed/franchised rooms, $3.132 billion of TTM free cash flow, expanding margins (Q2 operating margin of 17.38% versus 11.61% in Q4 2025) and over $1.1 billion of quarterly buybacks that compound EPS. The bear case is primarily about price rather than quality: at 32.59x trailing and 29.51x forward earnings, MAR trades at a 40-60% premium to the lodging sector, has already exceeded the $383.54 average analyst target, and faces decelerating 4.85% revenue growth with a thin 0.427 current ratio. On balance, the evidence favors the bulls on business quality and momentum but the bears on near-term risk/reward, since the stock has priced in much of the good news after a 49.80% one-year run. The single most important tension is whether net unit growth and buyback-driven EPS compounding can sustain a ~30x forward multiple as North American RevPAR growth moderates — if fee growth holds mid-to-high single digits, the premium is defensible; if it slips toward low single digits, multiple compression toward the low-20s becomes the dominant risk.
Bullish
- Fee-based asset-light compounding model: 99% of Marriott's 1.8 million rooms are managed or franchised, so the company earns fees on other owners' real estate rather than carrying property risk. Q2 2026 net fee revenue of $1.547 billion plus owned/leased/other of $466 million drive the profit engine, and free cash flow TTM of $3.132 billion funds both growth and capital returns.
- Strong momentum and relative strength: MAR is up 49.80% over the past year versus 15.53% for the S&P 500, a 34.27 percentage point relative strength advantage, and up 15.85% in the past month versus 1.22% for the index. At $388.05 the stock sits at roughly 85% of its 52-week range and has fully reversed the August-September pullback to $328.79.
- Expanding margins and operating leverage: Q2 2026 gross margin rose to 21.98% from 20.15% in Q1 and 16.53% in Q4 2025, while operating margin improved to 17.38% from 15.99% and 11.61%. Q2 EBITDA of $1.265 billion (17.89% margin) versus $1.234 billion in Q1 shows earnings scaling faster than the 4.85% revenue growth.
- Aggressive capital returns shrink share count: Marriott repurchased $1.119 billion of stock and paid $192 million in dividends in Q2 2026 alone, reducing diluted shares from 274.46 million in Q2 2025 to 269.40 million in Q2 2026. This buyback-driven EPS compounding is a core part of the premium-multiple thesis.
Bearish
- Stock has surpassed consensus target: At $388.05, MAR trades above the average analyst target of $383.54, implying -1.2% downside, and the target range of $280 to $429 is a wide 53% spread. When the price exceeds consensus fair value, near-term risk/reward becomes asymmetric unless earnings estimates are revised upward.
- Premium valuation leaves little margin for error: The trailing PE of 32.59x and forward PE of 29.51x sit roughly 40-60% above a travel lodging sector that typically trades in the high-teens to low-20s. EV/EBITDA of 20.89x and a PEG of 2.35 mean investors pay more than two dollars of multiple per point of expected growth.
- Revenue growth is decelerating: Q2 2026 revenue grew 4.85% year-over-year to $7.071 billion, down from roughly 7.7% growth in Q2 2025 versus Q2 2024. With North America at 61% of rooms and RevPAR moderating, the top line increasingly depends on unit expansion rather than pricing acceleration.
- Thin liquidity and negative equity: The current ratio of 0.427 and cash of just $472 million against $221 million of quarterly interest expense and $398 million of debt repayment reflect a liability-heavy, buyback-driven balance sheet. Negative book equity (debt-to-equity of -4.53) means Marriott depends on continuous refinancing access and steady fee income.
MAR Technical Analysis
Marriott is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 49.80% over the past year versus a 15.53% gain for the S&P 500 — a relative strength advantage of 34.27 percentage points. At $388.05, the shares sit at roughly 85.2% of their 52-week range of $256.76 to $410.98, having recovered decisively from the September 2026 trough near $328.79 and now pressing toward the upper boundary of the range. This positioning signals strong momentum and a market willing to pay up for the name, though proximity to the 52-week high raises the risk of overextension and profit-taking near resistance. The year-to-date gain of 23.82% versus 11.93% for the S&P confirms persistent outperformance, with the stock's max drawdown of -18.32% over the period reflecting a sharp but contained August–September correction rather than a structural breakdown.
Short-term momentum is clearly accelerating: the stock is up 15.85% over the past month versus just 1.22% for the S&P, a relative strength reading of 14.63 percentage points, and up 5.96% over three months against 2.69% for the index. This recent surge diverges positively from the more modest six-month gain of 2.68% (which actually lagged the S&P's 7.48%, producing a -4.80% relative strength reading for that window), indicating that the August–September pullback to $328.79 was a temporary mean-reversion episode now fully reversed. The October rally — from $354.79 on October 1 to $388.05 on October 16, including a 3.74% single-day jump on October 15 — suggests buyers are in control, though the velocity of the move raises the odds of a near-term consolidation. Volume of roughly 1.91 million shares is moderate, and with a short ratio of 4.17 days, short interest is not a meaningful contrarian catalyst in either direction.
Key technical levels are well defined: resistance sits at the 52-week high of $410.98, roughly 5.9% above the current price, and a breakout above that level would confirm the uptrend and likely trigger momentum-driven buying toward new highs. Support rests at the 52-week low of $256.76, but more relevant near-term support lies at the September swing low of $328.79, about 15.3% below current levels; a breakdown through that zone would signal a trend reversal and shift the narrative from pullback to distribution. With a beta of 1.167, Marriott is roughly 17% more volatile than the market, meaning position sizing should account for amplified drawdowns in risk-off episodes — a 10% market decline would historically imply a roughly 11.7% move in MAR, reinforcing the importance of the $328.79 support level as a risk-management trigger.
Beta
1.17
1.17x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-18.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$257-$411
Price range past year
Annual Return
+45.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MAR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +14.0% | -1.2% |
| 3m | +6.0% | +3.4% |
| 6m | +8.1% | +7.0% |
| 1y | +45.8% | +14.4% |
| ytd | +26.6% | +12.0% |
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MAR Fundamental Analysis
Marriott's revenue trajectory remains solidly positive but is decelerating at the margin. Q2 2026 revenue came in at $7.071 billion, up 4.85% year-over-year from $6.744 billion in Q2 2025, a slowdown from the prior-year comparison where Q2 2025 revenue of $6.744 billion grew roughly 7.7% over Q2 2024's $6.255 billion. Sequentially, revenue rose from $6.654 billion in Q1 2026 and $6.690 billion in Q4 2025, showing steady but modest quarter-over-quarter progression. Within the segment mix, reimbursements of $5.058 billion dominate the top line but carry low margins, while net fee revenues of $1.547 billion and owned/leased/other revenue of $466 million represent the true profit engine — the fee stream's growth is what matters for the investment case, and the mid-single-digit overall growth rate implies the company is relying on unit expansion and modest RevPAR gains rather than pricing acceleration to sustain its trajectory.
Profitability is robust and expanding. Q2 2026 net income reached $766 million on a 10.83% net margin, up from $648 million (9.74% margin) in Q1 2026 and $445 million (6.65% margin) in Q4 2025, with the sequential improvement reflecting seasonality and disciplined cost control. Gross margin came in at 21.98% in Q2 2026, up from 20.15% in Q1 2026 and 16.53% in Q4 2025, while operating margin improved to 17.38% from 15.99% and 11.61% over the same periods. The TTM operating margin of 15.81% and net margin of 9.93% are consistent with the high-margin, fee-based lodging model, and the Q2 EBITDA of $1.265 billion (17.89% EBITDA margin) versus $1.234 billion in Q1 demonstrates operating leverage as revenue scales — a favorable sign that margin expansion, not just top-line growth, is contributing to earnings.
Balance-sheet optics are distorted by Marriott's negative book equity from aggressive buybacks, but cash generation is strong. Free cash flow TTM stands at $3.132 billion, with Q2 2026 FCF of $796 million on operating cash flow of $948 million against capex of $152 million, and the company returned capital via $1.119 billion of buybacks and $192 million of dividends in the quarter. The current ratio of 0.427 and debt-to-equity of -4.53 reflect a liability-heavy, buyback-driven capital structure rather than distress, while ROA of 9.76% and ROE of -68.97% (negative due to negative equity) must be read in that context; the more meaningful metric is the 6.09% return on capital employed. Cash of $472 million against quarterly debt repayment of $398 million and interest expense of $221 million (interest coverage of roughly 5.6x) indicates the company comfortably services debt from internal cash flow, though the thin cash buffer and low current ratio mean Marriott depends on continuous refinancing access and steady fee income — a manageable but non-trivial financial risk if travel demand deteriorates sharply.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.1B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+4.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
22.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$3.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MAR Overvalued?
Because Marriott is profitable (Q2 2026 net income of $766 million), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 32.59x versus a forward PE of 29.51x, a roughly 9.4% compression that implies the market expects earnings growth to outpace the current multiple — consistent with consensus EPS estimates of $18.94 for the forward period. The PEG ratio of 2.35 and EV/EBITDA of 20.89x both point to a valuation that embeds meaningful growth expectations, and the PS ratio of 3.18x (versus a historical Q2 2026 reading of 14.07x on a different share-count basis) underscores how sensitive the multiple is to the fee-revenue mix.
Relative to the broader travel lodging sector, Marriott's 32.59x trailing PE and 20.89x EV/EBITDA represent a premium consistent with its status as the scale leader with the highest-quality fee stream and strongest brand portfolio; the 29.51x forward PE versus a sector that typically trades in the high-teens to low-20s implies a premium of roughly 40–60%, which is defensible given Marriott's superior ROA (9.76%), industry-leading unit growth and capital-light model, but leaves little room for execution missteps. The 3.18x PS ratio and 25.93x price-to-cash-flow multiple further confirm the market is pricing Marriott as a premium compounder rather than a cyclical value name, and the 2.35 PEG suggests investors are paying more than two dollars of multiple for each point of expected growth — a rich but not unprecedented level for a franchise model with recurring fee income.
Historically, Marriott's PE has ranged from roughly 16.5x in mid-2022 to over 46x in Q4 2025, with the current 32.59x sitting in the upper-middle of that band — above the 2023–2024 average in the low-to-mid 20s but below the late-2025 peak. The PS ratio of 3.18x compares favorably to the 10–14x range seen in the historical ratios data (though those figures reflect different share-count conventions), and the EV/EBITDA of 20.89x is near the higher end of its multi-year range of roughly 52x to 104x on the enterprise-value-multiple series, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic but not euphoric expectations. The takeaway is that Marriott is valued as a high-quality growth franchise at a premium to its own history, meaning further multiple expansion requires either accelerating RevPAR, faster net unit growth, or a sustained buyback-driven EPS compounding story.
PE
32.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 17x~47x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
20.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on a balance sheet engineered for capital returns rather than resilience. Marriott carries a current ratio of just 0.427 with only $472 million of cash against $221 million of quarterly interest expense (roughly 5.6x coverage) and $398 million of quarterly debt repayment, while negative book equity from buybacks (debt-to-equity of -4.53) makes traditional leverage metrics uninformative. Revenue growth has decelerated to 4.85% year-over-year in Q2 2026 from roughly 7.7% a year earlier, and with 61% of rooms in North America, a RevPAR slowdown there would hit the highest-margin fee stream directly. Earnings quality is also seasonal and incentive-fee dependent: net margin swung from 6.65% in Q4 2025 to 10.83% in Q2 2026, so a weak peak season would compress profitability quickly.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression. At 32.59x trailing and 29.51x forward earnings, 20.89x EV/EBITDA and a 2.35 PEG, MAR trades at a 40-60% premium to a lodging sector typically valued in the high-teens to low-20s, leaving little cushion if growth disappoints. The stock's beta of 1.167 amplifies market moves — a 10% index decline historically implies roughly an 11.7% drop — and the recent rotation into cyclicals that helped drive the 49.80% one-year gain could reverse if macro sentiment shifts. Competition from Airbnb and alternative accommodations continues to pressure select-service pricing, while the wide $280-$429 analyst target spread and the predominance of Hold/Neutral ratings from Truist, UBS, Barclays and JP Morgan signal that the sell side sees limited upside from here.
In a worst-case scenario, a North American consumer travel slowdown would hit RevPAR and incentive fees simultaneously, forcing downward estimate revisions just as the premium multiple compresses toward the low-20s. From $388.05, a re-rating to the analyst low target of $280 would represent roughly -28%, and a full retest of the 52-week low of $256.76 would imply about -34%. The stock's -18.32% max drawdown during the August-September 2026 correction shows how quickly a 15%+ air pocket can develop even in an uptrend, and with the shares only 5.9% below the $410.98 high, the downside to the September swing low of $328.79 (-15.3%) is the first realistic support test in any risk-off episode.
FAQ
Ranked by severity: first, valuation compression — a 32.59x trailing PE and 20.89x EV/EBITDA leave little cushion, and a re-rating toward the low-20s could take the stock to the $280 analyst low (-28%). Second, North American RevPAR deceleration, since 61% of rooms are in the region and revenue growth has already slowed to 4.85% from roughly 7.7% a year earlier. Third, balance-sheet liquidity — a 0.427 current ratio and only $472 million of cash against $221 million of quarterly interest expense make Marriott dependent on refinancing access. Fourth, macro sensitivity with a beta of 1.167, meaning a 10% market decline historically implies an 11.7% drop, amplified by the stock's position just 5.9% below its 52-week high.
The 12-month outlook assigns a 55% probability to a base case of $370-$400, in which mid-single-digit revenue growth and steady buybacks hold EPS near the $18.94 consensus and the stock consolidates around the $383.54 average target. A 20% bull case targets $410-$429 on accelerating international RevPAR, record unit growth and multiple expansion toward the analyst high. A 25% bear case targets $280-$329 if North American RevPAR turns negative and the multiple compresses toward the low-20s. The base case is most likely, with the key assumption being that revenue growth holds near 4.85% and operating margins stay in the 15-17% range.
MAR screens as fairly-to-fully valued. The trailing PE of 32.59x and forward PE of 29.51x sit roughly 40-60% above a lodging sector that typically trades in the high-teens to low-20s, while EV/EBITDA of 20.89x and a PEG of 2.35 confirm the market is paying a premium for growth. Against its own history, the current multiple sits in the upper-middle of a 16.5x-46x range — above the 2023-2024 low-to-mid-20s average but below the late-2025 peak. The market is pricing in continued mid-single-digit revenue growth, margin expansion and buyback-driven EPS compounding; any shortfall in those expectations would likely trigger multiple compression rather than earnings-driven downside alone.
From a risk/reward perspective, MAR is a high-quality business trading at a full price. The stock is up 49.80% over the past year and 15.85% in the past month, and at $388.05 it sits above the $383.54 average analyst target, implying roughly -1.2% downside to consensus fair value despite a 'buy' rating (mean 2.17). The upside case rests on $3.132 billion of TTM free cash flow, expanding margins and $1.119 billion of quarterly buybacks, while the downside risk is a re-rating toward the $280 analyst low (-28%) if North American RevPAR slows. It is a good buy for long-term investors seeking asset-light travel exposure on a pullback toward the $328.79 support, but chasing at current levels offers limited margin of safety.
MAR is better suited to long-term holding than short-term trading. The business is a mature compounder — revenue growing 4.85%, a dividend yield of just 0.86% with a 27.6% payout ratio — whose returns come from EPS growth and buybacks rather than explosive top-line expansion. A beta of 1.167 and a -18.32% max drawdown over the past six months mean short-term traders face amplified volatility, and the stock's position 5.9% below its 52-week high after a 15.85% monthly surge raises near-term consolidation risk. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is appropriate to capture the unit-growth and buyback compounding story through a full travel cycle.