Miteri Development Bank Limited
MDB
$348.61
+3.39%
MongoDB, Inc. is a leading provider of a document-oriented database platform that enables developers to build and modernize applications more rapidly, offering both a fully managed cloud service (MongoDB Atlas) and a self-managed enterprise version (MongoDB Enterprise Advanced). The company is a disruptive force in the database market, challenging traditional relational databases with its flexible, scalable NoSQL architecture, and has cultivated a massive developer community with over 500 million downloads of its free Community Server. Currently, investor attention is focused on MongoDB's ability to sustain robust revenue growth, particularly within its Atlas cloud offering, which is seen as a key beneficiary of AI-driven application development. Recent headlines highlight a debate over whether the stock's AI-related selloff was overdone, with strong earnings and raised guidance suggesting a recovery, while competitive pressures and macroeconomic uncertainties remain key risks.…
MDB
Miteri Development Bank Limited
$348.61
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MDB Today?
Based on the synthesis of analyst consensus, valuation, and growth prospects, MongoDB earns a Buy rating. The core thesis is that MongoDB's leadership in the NoSQL database market, coupled with its 25.25% revenue growth and strong balance sheet, positions it to deliver above-market returns despite a premium valuation. The analyst consensus rating of 1.63 (Buy) and average target price of $456.88, implying 11.3% upside, support this view.
The supporting evidence includes: 1) Revenue growth of 25.25% YoY, significantly above the software industry average; 2) Gross margin of 72.16%, indicating strong pricing power; 3) Positive free cash flow of $599.5 million TTM, providing financial flexibility; 4) A debt-to-equity ratio of 0.011, reflecting minimal leverage; and 5) A PS ratio of 12.25, which, while premium, is well below historical highs. These factors collectively justify a growth-oriented investment.
The biggest risks are: 1) Valuation compression if growth slows, given the forward PE of 52.67; 2) Competitive pressures from cloud providers and open-source alternatives; and 3) Macroeconomic headwinds that could reduce IT spending. The rating would upgrade to Strong Buy if revenue growth accelerates above 30% and operating margins turn positive, or downgrade to Hold if growth falls below 20% or if operating margins remain negative for multiple quarters. Relative to its history and peers, MongoDB appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued given its growth trajectory, but the premium multiple leaves little margin for error.
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MDB 12-Month Price Forecast
MongoDB presents a compelling growth story with strong revenue momentum, a fortress balance sheet, and improving profitability. The stock's premium valuation is justified by its leadership in the NoSQL database market and the growing demand for AI-driven applications. However, the high beta and wide analyst target range indicate significant uncertainty. We would upgrade to high confidence if operating margins turn sustainably positive and revenue growth accelerates above 30%. Conversely, a downgrade would occur if growth decelerates below 20% or if competitive pressures intensify, leading to market share loss.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Miteri Development Bank Limited's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $448.94 and implied upside of +28.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$448.94
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+28.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$273 - $565
Analyst target range
MongoDB is covered by 37 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of "Buy" (mean rating of 1.63, where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell). The average price target is $456.88, implying an upside of approximately 11.3% from the current price of $410.44. This suggests that analysts are generally bullish, expecting the stock to recover from recent weakness and continue its growth trajectory. The consensus is supported by recent ratings from firms like Needham, Truist Securities, and B of A Securities, all reiterating Buy or equivalent ratings in mid-2026.
The target price range spans from a low of $272.64 to a high of $565.00, representing a wide spread of over 107% between the low and high targets. The high target of $565.00 likely assumes accelerated revenue growth, margin expansion, and successful AI-driven product adoption, while the low target of $272.64 may price in competitive pressures, slower growth, or macroeconomic headwinds. The wide range indicates significant uncertainty and divergent views on the company's future, which is typical for high-growth tech stocks. Institutional ratings show a predominance of Buy/Outperform ratings, with no recent downgrades, suggesting that analyst sentiment remains positive despite the stock's volatility.
Bulls vs Bears: MDB Investment Factors
The bull case for MongoDB rests on its strong revenue growth, particularly in Atlas, a fortress balance sheet with minimal debt, and improving profitability. The bear case centers on its still-elevated valuation, negative operating margins, and high volatility. Currently, the bull evidence appears stronger, given the 25.25% revenue growth, positive net income, and robust free cash flow, which collectively justify a premium valuation. However, the most critical tension is whether MongoDB can sustain its growth rate and expand margins in the face of intensifying competition and macroeconomic headwinds. If growth decelerates below 20% or margins fail to improve, the stock could face a significant de-rating.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth and Atlas Momentum: MongoDB's Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 25.25% YoY to $687.62 million, driven by Atlas, which now represents 74.5% of total revenue at $512.47 million. This consistent double-digit growth demonstrates the company's ability to expand its cloud database platform and capture market share in the NoSQL space.
- Robust Balance Sheet with Minimal Debt: With a current ratio of 4.65 and debt-to-equity of just 0.011, MongoDB has exceptional liquidity and virtually no leverage. This provides ample financial flexibility to invest in growth initiatives and weather economic downturns without diluting shareholders.
- Improving Profitability and Cash Generation: The company achieved positive net income of $4.43 million in Q1 FY2027, a significant improvement from a net loss of $37.63 million a year ago. Free cash flow remains strong at $599.5 million TTM, with $199.31 million generated in the latest quarter, underscoring the business's cash-generative nature.
- Attractive Valuation Relative to History: The PS ratio has compressed to 12.25, down from historical highs of 145.79 in Q3 FY2022 and 25.42 in Q1 FY2026. This suggests the stock is now more reasonably valued, offering a better entry point for growth investors.
Bearish
- Elevated Valuation Multiples: Despite the compression, the forward PE of 52.67 and PS of 12.25 remain high, especially compared to the broader market. This leaves little room for error, and any slowdown in growth could trigger significant multiple contraction.
- Negative Operating Margin and Profitability Concerns: Operating margin is -3.61% in Q1 FY2027, and net margin is only 0.64%. Heavy investments in R&D ($200.41 million) and sales & marketing ($249.33 million) continue to pressure profitability, and sustained losses could weigh on investor sentiment.
- High Volatility and Significant Drawdown Risk: With a beta of 1.585, MongoDB is 58.5% more volatile than the market, and the stock experienced a maximum drawdown of -48.72% over the past year. This high volatility can lead to substantial losses during market downturns.
- Competitive Pressures and Macro Uncertainties: Recent news highlights rising competition and falling AI token prices, which could impact MongoDB's growth trajectory. Additionally, macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East conflicts) may reduce enterprise IT spending.
MDB Technical Analysis
MongoDB's stock has been in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +30.17%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's +17.22% gain. The current price of $410.44 sits at approximately 75.6% of its 52-week range (low of $215.68 to high of $473.10), indicating that while the stock is well above its lows, it has pulled back from its peak and is not in overbought territory. This positioning suggests a healthy consolidation within a longer-term bullish trend, offering a potential entry point for investors who believe the growth story remains intact.
Short-term momentum has been positive but decelerating, with a 1-month gain of 1.07% and a 3-month gain of 30.71%, compared to the 6-month surge of 74.28%. The 1-month performance lags the S&P 500's 0.69% gain by a narrow margin, but the 3-month relative strength of +24.90% underscores MongoDB's outperformance over the medium term. The recent pullback from the 52-week high of $473.10, reached in August 2026, may signal profit-taking or a temporary pause, but the lack of RSI data prevents a definitive overbought/oversold assessment. The divergence between the strong 6-month and weaker 1-month trends could indicate a consolidation phase before the next leg up.
Key technical levels to watch include support at the 52-week low of $215.68, which represents a critical floor, and resistance at the 52-week high of $473.10. A breakout above this resistance would signal renewed bullish momentum and potentially attract momentum buyers, while a breakdown below support could trigger a deeper correction. With a beta of 1.585, MongoDB is approximately 58.5% more volatile than the broader market, meaning investors should be prepared for larger price swings and consider position sizing accordingly. The maximum drawdown of -48.72% over the past year further highlights the stock's risk profile.
Beta
1.58
1.58x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-48.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$216-$473
Price range past year
Annual Return
+12.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MDB Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -23.1% | -0.6% |
| 3m | -1.8% | +2.4% |
| 6m | +37.7% | +16.3% |
| 1y | +12.3% | +14.5% |
| ytd | -12.8% | +11.8% |
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MDB Fundamental Analysis
MongoDB's revenue trajectory remains robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ended April 30, 2026) reporting revenue of $687.62 million, a 25.25% year-over-year increase. This growth is primarily driven by the MongoDB Atlas segment, which generated $512.47 million, or 74.5% of total revenue, up from prior periods, while other subscription and services contributed $153.67 million and $21.48 million, respectively. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent growth, with revenue rising from $549.01 million in Q1 FY2026 to $695.07 million in Q4 FY2026, and then to $687.62 million in Q1 FY2027, indicating a slight sequential dip but a strong annual pace. This sustained double-digit growth underscores the company's ability to expand its customer base and upsell existing clients, which is critical for justifying its premium valuation.
Profitability has been a mixed picture, but recent quarters show improvement. In Q1 FY2027, net income was $4.43 million, translating to a net margin of 0.64%, while gross margin remained strong at 72.16%. This compares favorably to the year-ago quarter (Q1 FY2026), when net loss was $37.63 million and gross margin was 71.21%. The company has now achieved positive net income in two of the last three quarters, with Q4 FY2026 net income of $15.53 million and Q3 FY2026 net loss of $2.01 million. Gross margin has been stable in the low 70s, typical for a software infrastructure company, but operating margin remains negative at -3.61% in Q1 FY2027, reflecting heavy investments in research and development ($200.41 million) and sales and marketing ($249.33 million). The narrowing losses and occasional profitability suggest a path toward sustainable profitability, but continued investment may pressure margins in the near term.
The balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with a current ratio of 4.65 and a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.011, indicating minimal leverage and ample liquidity. Free cash flow (FCF) on a trailing twelve-month basis is $599.50 million, and in Q1 FY2027 alone, FCF was $199.31 million, demonstrating the company's ability to generate cash internally to fund growth. The FCF yield, based on a market cap of $30.17 billion, is approximately 1.99%, which is modest but reflects the company's growth-oriented reinvestment strategy. Return on equity (ROE) is -2.41%, impacted by stock-based compensation and other non-cash items, but the negative ROE is not a concern given the company's strong cash position and low debt. Overall, MongoDB's financial health is robust, with sufficient cash to support ongoing innovation and expansion without relying on external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$771773000.0B
2026-07
Revenue YoY Growth
+30.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
73.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$667341000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MDB Overvalued?
Given that MongoDB's trailing net income is negative (TTM EPS of -0.0024), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate primary valuation metric. The current PS ratio is 12.25, while the forward PE ratio is 52.67, based on estimated EPS of $12.69 for the next fiscal year. The gap between the negative trailing PE and the positive forward PE reflects the market's expectation of a sharp turnaround in profitability, driven by revenue growth and operating leverage. However, the forward PE of 52.67 is still elevated, implying that investors are pricing in significant earnings growth.
Compared to the software infrastructure industry, MongoDB's PS ratio of 12.25 is at a premium, though industry average data is not explicitly provided. However, the company's gross margin of 71.75% and revenue growth of 25.25% are above many peers, which may justify a premium. The price-to-book (PB) ratio of 10.22 is also high, reflecting the company's asset-light model and intangible value. Without specific industry averages, we note that MongoDB's valuation multiples are generally higher than the broader technology sector, consistent with its growth profile and market leadership in the NoSQL database space.
Historically, MongoDB's PS ratio has ranged from a high of 145.79 in Q3 FY2022 to a low of 25.42 in Q1 FY2026, with the current 12.25 representing a significant compression from those levels. This suggests that the stock is now valued more reasonably relative to its own history, potentially offering a more attractive entry point. However, the current PS is still above the lows seen in earlier years, and the forward PE of 52.67 indicates that the market expects substantial earnings growth. If the company fails to deliver, the stock could face further multiple contraction.
PE
-422.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 165x~1136x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-993.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
MongoDB's financial risks are relatively contained due to its strong balance sheet, but the company's negative operating margin of -3.61% and net margin of just 0.64% highlight ongoing profitability challenges. The heavy reliance on stock-based compensation and continued investments in R&D and sales & marketing could delay sustainable profitability. Additionally, while free cash flow is robust at $599.5 million TTM, the FCF yield of 1.99% is modest, and any slowdown in cash generation could pressure the valuation. The company's revenue concentration in Atlas (74.5% of total) also poses a risk if cloud adoption slows or competition intensifies.
Market and competitive risks are significant given MongoDB's premium valuation (PS of 12.25, forward PE of 52.67) and high beta of 1.585. The stock is sensitive to market rotations away from high-growth tech, as evidenced by the recent AI-driven selloff. Competitive pressures from cloud providers and open-source alternatives could erode MongoDB's market share. Regulatory headwinds, such as data privacy laws, and macroeconomic factors like rising interest rates could further compress multiples. Recent news about falling AI token prices and defensive acquisitions by giants like Nvidia signals a challenging environment for growth stocks.
In a worst-case scenario, a combination of decelerating revenue growth, margin compression, and a broader market downturn could drive MongoDB's stock down to its 52-week low of $215.68, representing a 47.5% decline from the current price of $410.44. This would align with the analyst low target of $272.64, but the 52-week low provides a more extreme downside reference. Given the stock's historical maximum drawdown of -48.72%, such a scenario is plausible if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance. Investors could lose nearly half their investment in this adverse scenario.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Valuation risk: the forward PE of 52.67 leaves little room for error, and a growth slowdown could trigger a sharp de-rating. 2) Competitive risk: cloud providers and open-source alternatives could erode MongoDB's market share, especially as AI token prices fall. 3) Macro risk: with a beta of 1.585, the stock is highly sensitive to market downturns and interest rate changes. 4) Execution risk: operating margin remains negative at -3.61%, and failure to achieve sustainable profitability could weigh on sentiment. These risks are ranked from highest to lowest severity, with valuation and competition being the most immediate concerns.
Our 12-month forecast for MongoDB includes three scenarios: Bull case (25% probability) with a target range of $565-$600, driven by accelerated AI demand and margin expansion; Base case (55% probability) with a target range of $440-$470, assuming steady mid-20s revenue growth and gradual margin improvement; and Bear case (20% probability) with a target range of $272-$300, reflecting decelerating growth and competitive pressures. The base case is most likely, hinging on MongoDB maintaining its growth trajectory and achieving near-breakeven operating margins. The average analyst target of $456.88 aligns with our base case.
MongoDB's valuation appears fair to slightly undervalued relative to its growth prospects and historical multiples. The PS ratio of 12.25 is a fraction of its historical high of 145.79, though still above the broader tech sector. The forward PE of 52.67 reflects expectations of substantial earnings growth, which may be justified given the 25.25% revenue growth and improving profitability. Compared to peers, MongoDB's premium is supported by its higher growth and gross margin of 72.16%. The market is pricing in continued execution, and any disappointment could lead to multiple contraction.
MongoDB presents a favorable risk/reward profile for growth-oriented investors. The stock trades at $410.44, with analysts' average target of $456.88 implying 11.3% upside, and the high target of $565 suggesting 37.7% potential. The company's 25.25% revenue growth and strong balance sheet (debt-to-equity of 0.011) support the bull case. However, the premium valuation (forward PE of 52.67) and high beta (1.585) mean significant downside risk if growth slows. It is a good buy for investors with a long-term horizon who can tolerate volatility, but not for those seeking income or low-risk exposure.
MongoDB is best suited for long-term investment, given its growth stage, high volatility (beta 1.585), and lack of dividend (payout ratio 0). The company is still investing heavily in growth, with negative operating margins, and its earnings visibility is moderate. Short-term trading could be risky due to the stock's high beta and sensitivity to news. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to ride out volatility and benefit from the secular cloud and AI trends. Investors should monitor quarterly earnings and competitive developments to adjust their thesis.