Mondelez International
MDLZ
$60.41
-0.43%
Mondelez International, Inc. Class A is a global snacking powerhouse operating in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Food Confectioners industry. The company's portfolio spans biscuits and baked snacks (48% of sales), chocolate (33%), gum and candy (10%), beverages (3%), and meals (6%), featuring iconic brands such as Oreo, Chips Ahoy, Cadbury, and Halls. As a leading player in the global snack enclave, Mondelez distinguishes itself through a diversified geographic footprint, generating roughly one-third of revenue from developing markets, around 40% from Europe, and more than one-fourth from North America. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate input cost inflation and currency headwinds while sustaining steady dividend growth, as evidenced by its recent quarterly dividend declaration of $0.50 per share and its inclusion in dividend-focused investment themes. However, the stock has faced pressure from a strong dollar and shifting consumer spending patterns, with recent news highlighting European energy crises potentially pressuring consumer staples margins.…
MDLZ
Mondelez International
$60.41
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MDLZ Today?
Based on the synthesis of data, MDLZ warrants a Hold rating. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $69.00 (14.2% upside), but the stock's premium valuation, unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 101.47%, and weak relative performance suggest limited near-term upside. The core thesis is that Mondelez is a high-quality defensive staple with strong brands, but current valuation already reflects its strengths, and risks to earnings and dividends are not fully priced in. Supporting evidence includes: 1) Forward PE of 17.97x is attractive relative to trailing 28.48x, but relies on EPS growth to $4.22; 2) Revenue growth of 4.13% YoY is stable but unspectacular; 3) Gross margin expansion to 42.61% in Q2 2026 is impressive, but may not be sustainable; 4) TTM free cash flow of $3.085 billion supports the dividend, yet payout ratio exceeds 100%; 5) The 3.57% dividend yield is appealing for income investors, but growth is at risk. The biggest risks are a dividend cut, earnings miss, and multiple compression. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the payout ratio falls below 80% or if revenue growth accelerates above 6%, and downgrade to Sell if the dividend is cut or if operating margins contract below 15%. Relative to its history, the forward PE is below average, suggesting the stock is fairly valued to slightly undervalued if earnings meet expectations, but the trailing PE premium and high payout ratio warrant caution.
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MDLZ 12-Month Price Forecast
Mondelez presents a balanced risk-reward profile, with defensive characteristics and a strong brand portfolio offset by a high dividend payout ratio and premium valuation. The forward PE of 17.97x suggests the market expects earnings growth, but the trailing PE of 28.48x and EV/EBITDA of 19.32x indicate a premium to peers. The stock's low beta of 0.391 makes it a safe haven in volatile markets, but it has underperformed the S&P 500 by 16.97% over the past year. I would upgrade to bullish if the company demonstrates sustainable margin expansion and reduces its payout ratio below 80%, or downgrade to bearish if earnings decline and the dividend is cut. The base case probability of 55% reflects a steady-as-she-goes scenario, but the bear case of 20% is significant given the dividend risk.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Mondelez International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $69.00 and implied upside of +14.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$69.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+14.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$55 - $77
Analyst target range
Mondelez is covered by 22 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of "Buy" (recommendation mean of 1.87, where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell). The average target price is $69.00, which implies an upside of approximately 14.2% from the current price of $60.41. The consensus leans bullish, supported by recent institutional ratings: Barclays, JP Morgan, TD Cowen, BNP Paribas, and Evercore ISI all maintained positive ratings (Overweight, Buy, or Outperform) in late July 2026, with no downgrades observed. This strong analyst sentiment contrasts with the stock's recent price weakness, suggesting that the market may be underestimating the company's earnings potential or that the sell-off is overdone. The target price range spans from a low of $55.00 to a high of $77.00, representing a wide spread of approximately 40% between the low and high targets. The high target of $77.00 implies a 27.5% upside and likely assumes multiple expansion, accelerating revenue growth, or successful margin expansion beyond current levels. The low target of $55.00 implies a 9.0% downside and may price in margin compression, competitive pressures, or adverse currency movements. The wide spread signals high uncertainty among analysts, which could lead to increased volatility around earnings announcements. Notably, the estimated EPS average of $4.22 for the next fiscal year, with a range of $4.09 to $4.36, supports the forward PE of 17.97x and suggests that analysts expect solid earnings growth. The recent institutional ratings show a pattern of stability, with no recent downgrades and several reiterations of positive ratings, indicating that analyst conviction remains strong despite the stock's recent underperformance.
Bulls vs Bears: MDLZ Investment Factors
The bull case for Mondelez rests on its defensive characteristics, strong brand portfolio, and recent margin expansion, which have driven a 12.60% YTD gain despite a -0.97% 1-year return. The bear case highlights the unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 101.47%, premium valuation, and significant underperformance versus the S&P 500. Currently, the bear evidence appears slightly stronger due to the payout ratio exceeding 100% and the stock's relative weakness, but the bull case is supported by analyst consensus and forward valuation. The most critical tension is whether the company can sustain its dividend and grow earnings enough to justify its premium multiple; if earnings growth accelerates to meet the $4.22 EPS estimate, the stock could re-rate, but failure to do so could lead to multiple compression.
Bullish
- Strong Q2 Margin Expansion: Q2 2026 gross margin expanded to 42.61% from 32.69% a year ago, while operating margin jumped to 20.80% from 13.05%. This 1,000+ basis point improvement demonstrates significant pricing power and cost control despite only 4.13% revenue growth.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward PE of 17.97x is well below the trailing PE of 28.48x and near the lower end of the stock's historical range. This implies the market expects EPS to grow to $4.22, and if achieved, the stock could re-rate higher.
- Solid Analyst Consensus: 22 analysts rate MDLZ a Buy with a mean recommendation of 1.87 and an average target price of $69.00, implying 14.2% upside from $60.41. Recent ratings from Barclays, JP Morgan, and others remain positive with no downgrades.
- Defensive Low-Beta Profile: With a beta of 0.391, MDLZ is roughly 61% less volatile than the S&P 500, making it an attractive defensive holding. Its 3.57% dividend yield and consistent quarterly dividend of $0.50 provide income stability.
Bearish
- Unsustainable Dividend Payout: The payout ratio of 101.47% exceeds 100%, meaning the company pays more in dividends than it earns. This could pressure future dividend growth or force a cut if earnings do not accelerate.
- Premium Valuation vs. Peers: The trailing PE of 28.48x and EV/EBITDA of 19.32x are above the industry average for food confectioners (typically 20-25x PE). This premium may not be justified given modest 4.13% revenue growth.
- Weak Relative Performance: MDLZ has underperformed the S&P 500 by 16.97% over the past year and 5.34% over the past month. The 1-year price change is -0.97%, significantly lagging the market's 16.0% gain.
- Liquidity and Leverage Concerns: The current ratio of 0.592 is below 1.0, indicating potential short-term liquidity tightness. Debt-to-equity of 0.867 is moderate but combined with the high payout ratio, limits financial flexibility.
MDLZ Technical Analysis
MDLZ is currently in a range-bound consolidation phase, with a 1-year price change of -0.97% and a year-to-date gain of 12.60%, indicating a modest recovery from earlier lows. The stock is trading at $60.41, which places it at approximately 59.5% of its 52-week range (52-week low of $51.20 and high of $66.65), suggesting it is neither overextended nor deeply undervalued but rather in the middle of its annual trading band. This positioning implies a balanced risk-reward profile, with room to run toward the upper end of the range if momentum builds, but also vulnerability to a pullback if support fails. Recent momentum has been negative, with a 1-month price change of -3.22% contrasting with a 3-month gain of 2.69% and a 6-month gain of 2.39%. This divergence—short-term weakness against a mildly positive medium-term trend—suggests a temporary pullback or mean reversion rather than a full trend reversal, especially given the stock's relative underperformance versus the S&P 500 (relative strength 1-month of -5.34% and 1-year of -16.97%). The 1-month decline may reflect profit-taking after the YTD rally or broader market rotation out of defensives, but the 3-month and 6-month gains indicate underlying resilience. Key technical levels to watch include support at the 52-week low of $51.20, which, if breached, could signal a deeper downtrend, and resistance at the 52-week high of $66.65, a breakout above which would confirm renewed bullish momentum. With a beta of 0.391, MDLZ is significantly less volatile than the broader market—roughly 61% less volatile than SPY—making it an attractive defensive holding for risk-averse investors, though this low beta also means it may lag in strong bull markets. The max drawdown of -20.0% over the past year highlights the stock's sensitivity to sector-specific headwinds, but its low beta suggests drawdowns are generally shallower than the market's.
Beta
0.39
0.39x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-20.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$51-$67
Price range past year
Annual Return
-1.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MDLZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -3.2% | +1.9% |
| 3m | +2.7% | +3.9% |
| 6m | +2.4% | +12.1% |
| 1y | -1.0% | +19.2% |
| ytd | +12.6% | +14.2% |
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MDLZ Fundamental Analysis
Mondelez's revenue trajectory remains positive but modest, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026) reporting revenue of $9.355 billion, a 4.13% year-over-year increase from $8.984 billion in Q2 2025. Sequentially, revenue declined from $10.08 billion in Q1 2026, reflecting typical seasonality, but the YoY growth indicates stable demand for its snack products. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue fluctuating between $8.98 billion and $10.50 billion over the past eight quarters, with no clear acceleration but a consistent baseline. Segment data reveals that Biscuits & Baked Snacks is the largest contributor at $4.735 billion, followed by Chocolate at $2.721 billion, Gum & Candy at $1.067 billion, Meals at $606 million, and Beverages at $226 million; the biscuit and chocolate segments are the primary growth drivers, while the smaller categories provide diversification. Profitability remains solid, with Q2 2026 net income of $1.548 billion and a net margin of 16.55%, up significantly from 7.13% in Q2 2025. Gross margin for Q2 2026 was 42.61%, a notable expansion from 32.69% in the prior-year quarter, driven by pricing actions and favorable product mix. Operating margin also improved to 20.80% from 13.05% YoY, reflecting effective cost management despite a 4.13% revenue increase. The company's trailing twelve-month (TTM) free cash flow stands at $3.085 billion, with Q2 2026 free cash flow of $513 million, down from $1.999 billion in Q4 2025 but consistent with seasonal patterns. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.867, a current ratio of 0.592, and a return on equity (ROE) of 9.49%, indicating moderate leverage and adequate but not exceptional liquidity. The current ratio below 1.0 suggests potential short-term liquidity tightness, but the company's strong cash generation and access to capital markets mitigate this risk. The dividend payout ratio of 101.47% exceeds 100%, meaning the company is paying out more in dividends than it earns, which could pressure future dividend growth unless earnings accelerate or the payout is adjusted.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.4B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+4.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
42.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$3.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MDLZ Overvalued?
Given that Mondelez reported positive net income of $1.548 billion in Q2 2026, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary valuation metric. The trailing PE ratio is 28.48x, while the forward PE is 17.97x, implying a significant gap that suggests the market expects substantial earnings growth in the coming year. This forward PE compression from trailing levels indicates that analysts anticipate EPS to rise from the current TTM level to an estimated average of $4.22 for the next fiscal year, which would represent a meaningful improvement in profitability. Compared to the broader Consumer Defensive sector, Mondelez's trailing PE of 28.48x is above the industry average (typically 20-25x for food confectioners), suggesting a premium valuation. The PS ratio of 1.81x and EV/EBITDA of 19.32x also position the stock at a premium relative to peers, though the forward PE of 17.97x is more in line with sector norms. This premium appears justified by Mondelez's strong brand portfolio, global scale, and consistent dividend, but the high payout ratio and moderate growth may limit multiple expansion. Historically, Mondelez's PE ratio has ranged from 11.4x to 54.7x over the past five years, with the current trailing PE of 28.48x sitting near the middle of that range. The PS ratio of 1.81x is near the lower end of its historical band (which has ranged from 6.6x to 11.7x), though this discrepancy may be due to changes in share count or data definitions. The forward PE of 17.97x is below the historical average, suggesting that if earnings meet expectations, the stock could be undervalued relative to its own history. However, the PEG ratio of -0.63 (negative due to negative earnings growth expectations in the near term) signals caution, as it implies that earnings growth may not be sufficient to justify the current multiple without a catalyst.
PE
28.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 11x~39x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Mondelez faces financial risks primarily from its high dividend payout ratio of 101.47%, which exceeds net income and could strain cash flow if earnings decline. The current ratio of 0.592 indicates potential short-term liquidity challenges, although TTM free cash flow of $3.085 billion provides some cushion. Additionally, debt-to-equity of 0.867 is manageable but leaves little room for error if operating conditions worsen. Operational risks include concentration in biscuits and chocolate (81% of sales), exposing the company to commodity price volatility and changing consumer preferences. The 4.13% revenue growth is modest and may not offset cost inflation, especially with European energy crises pressuring margins. The company's global footprint introduces currency risk, as a strong dollar reduces the value of international earnings. Market and competitive risks stem from MDLZ's premium valuation, with a trailing PE of 28.48x above the industry average, making it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints. The low beta of 0.391 reduces market correlation but also means the stock may lag in bull markets, as evidenced by 16.97% underperformance versus the S&P 500 over the past year. Competitive pressures from private labels and other snack producers could erode market share, while regulatory headwinds on sugar and unhealthy snacks pose long-term threats. The worst-case scenario involves a combination of earnings miss, dividend cut, and multiple compression. If Q3 earnings fall short and the payout ratio remains above 100%, the stock could drop to its 52-week low of $51.20, representing a 15.2% decline from $60.41. A more severe scenario, such as a recession reducing snack demand and forcing a dividend cut, could push the stock below $50, a loss of over 17%. The analyst low target of $55.00 implies a 9.0% downside, but historical max drawdown of -20% suggests potential for deeper losses in a downturn.
FAQ
The key risks for MDLZ include: 1) Dividend sustainability risk, as the payout ratio of 101.47% exceeds net income, which could lead to a dividend cut; 2) Valuation risk, with a trailing PE of 28.48x and EV/EBITDA of 19.32x, leaving room for multiple compression if growth disappoints; 3) Currency and macro risk, as a strong dollar and European energy crisis pressure margins, with ~40% of revenue from Europe; 4) Competitive risk from private labels and changing consumer preferences toward healthier snacks. These risks are ranked from highest to lowest severity, with the dividend cut being the most immediate threat to income investors.
The 12-month forecast for MDLZ includes a base case (55% probability) with a target range of $60-$69, assuming EPS of $4.22 and steady revenue growth. The bull case (25% probability) targets $69-$77, driven by earnings beats and margin expansion, while the bear case (20% probability) targets $51-$55, triggered by an earnings miss and dividend cut. The most likely scenario is the base case, where the stock trades sideways to modestly higher, reflecting its defensive nature but limited growth. Key assumptions include stable gross margins around 40-42% and no significant change in dividend policy.
MDLZ appears fairly valued to slightly overvalued on a trailing basis, with a PE of 28.48x above the industry average of 20-25x for food confectioners. However, the forward PE of 17.97x is more attractive and below the stock's historical average, suggesting that if earnings meet the $4.22 EPS estimate, the stock could be undervalued. The PS ratio of 1.81x and EV/EBITDA of 19.32x also indicate a premium relative to peers. The market is pricing in earnings growth and margin expansion, but the high payout ratio and modest 4.13% revenue growth may limit multiple expansion. Overall, the stock is not deeply undervalued, and investors are paying a fair price for a high-quality defensive name.
MDLZ may be a good buy for income-focused investors seeking a defensive staple with a 3.57% dividend yield and low beta of 0.391. The analyst consensus is Buy with a $69 average target, implying 14.2% upside, but the stock trades at a premium trailing PE of 28.48x and has a payout ratio of 101.47%, which is unsustainable. The biggest downside risk is a dividend cut, which could push the stock to the 52-week low of $51.20, a 15.2% decline. Therefore, it is a good buy only for those with a long-term horizon who can tolerate potential dividend stagnation and are comfortable with a fairly valued stock.
MDLZ is more suitable for long-term investment, given its low beta of 0.391, stable dividend yield of 3.57%, and defensive consumer staples nature. Short-term trading is less attractive due to the stock's range-bound behavior (1-year price change of -0.97%) and low volatility. The company's earnings visibility is moderate, with analyst EPS estimates ranging from $4.09 to $4.36 for the next fiscal year. A suggested minimum holding period is 2-3 years to ride out currency fluctuations and benefit from potential dividend growth and margin recovery. However, investors should monitor the payout ratio and consider exiting if it remains above 100% for multiple quarters.