Mondelez International, Inc.

Of course. Here is a comprehensive analysis of whether Mondelez International (MDLZ) is worth buying.

**Technical Analysis**

MDLZ shows tentative signs of recovery after a period of significant weakness. While the stock has gained over 5% in the past month, it remains down considerably over three months and is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range. This recent bounce from an oversold condition, coupled with its low market volatility (beta of 0.4), suggests potential for stabilization, though it has yet to reclaim its former strength.

**Fundamental Analysis**

The company demonstrates resilience with sequential revenue growth, but this is countered by margin pressure, as seen in the declining gross profit. Financially, MDLZ is healthy with manageable debt and excellent interest coverage, though its low current ratio indicates potential short-term liquidity constraints. Operational efficiency appears to be an area for improvement, with low returns on equity and assets, suggesting the company may not be fully leveraging its scale.

**Valuation & Peer Comparison**

MDLZ's valuation presents a mixed picture. Its current P/E ratio is reasonable for a stable consumer staples giant, but a higher forward P/E and a PEG ratio near 2.0 suggest the stock is priced for premium growth that may be difficult to achieve. The exceptionally high EV/EBITDA ratio is unusual and warrants caution, as it may signal the market is valuing future expectations very aggressively compared to current earnings.

**Risk Assessment**

The primary risk is not price volatility—MDLZ is a defensive stock—but rather operational execution. Investors should monitor the company's ability to navigate input cost inflation and protect its profit margins. The lack of significant short interest indicates general market confidence, but the recent drawdown highlights sensitivity to earnings disappointments.

**Buy Recommendation Summary**

Based on the analysis, MDLZ presents a cautious opportunity for investors seeking a stable, defensive holding with a solid dividend. The stock appears undervalued on a technical basis after its pullback, and its strong brand portfolio provides enduring cash flow. However, the premium valuation metrics and operational efficiency concerns suggest it is best suited for patient, long-term investors who believe in management's ability to improve execution and margins. Consider a position for portfolio stability, but temper expectations for near-term outperformance.

*Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Of course. Here is a 12-month outlook for Mondelēz International (MDLZ):

Outlook: MDLZ is poised for a period of stabilization and muted growth over the next 12 months. As a defensive consumer staples leader, it offers stability in uncertain markets, but faces persistent operational headwinds.

Key Catalysts: The primary positive catalysts will be the company's ability to successfully execute price increases to offset input cost inflation and demonstrate improved operational efficiency, which could lead to margin expansion. A rebound from its technically oversold condition also provides a near-term tailwind.

Potential Risks: The main risks are ongoing margin pressure from inflation and the stock's premium valuation (evidenced by its high forward P/E and EV/EBITDA), which leaves little room for error. Failure to improve operational metrics could lead to further underperformance.

Target Price: Given the lack of a specific analyst target, a reasonable 12-month price range would be $60 - $68, representing moderate upside from the current price, contingent on successful execution of its strategic initiatives.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Mondelez International, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $57.24, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, MDLZ has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

MDLZ has demonstrated mixed performance with recent recovery following significant longer-term weakness.

The stock has shown positive momentum over the past month with a 5.3% gain, but remains down 7.4% over three months, significantly underperforming the broader market by nearly 13 percentage points during this period. This short-term recovery still leaves the stock well below recent highs despite its low beta indicating relatively stable price movements compared to the market.

Currently trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, MDLZ appears oversold given its substantial 27% maximum drawdown over the past year. The current price suggests potential value opportunity on a technical basis, though it remains well below its historical peak.

Revenue & Profitability MDLZ demonstrated sequential revenue growth from Q2 to Q3 2025, with quarterly revenue increasing from $8.98B to $9.74B. However, profitability metrics showed mixed trends as the gross profit margin declined significantly from 32.7% to 26.8%, while the net profit margin improved slightly from 7.1% to 7.6%. The company maintains solid profitability despite margin pressure from cost inflation.

Financial Health The company maintains moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.84 and total debt to capitalization of 45.6%. MDLZ exhibits strong interest coverage of 33.8x but shows constrained liquidity with a current ratio of 0.61 and quick ratio of 0.37. The negative cash conversion cycle of -13.8 days indicates efficient working capital management.

Operational Efficiency Operational efficiency metrics appear modest with return on equity at 2.8% and return on assets at 1.0%. Asset turnover remains low at 0.14, suggesting potential underutilization of the company's asset base. The payout ratio of 82% indicates significant earnings distribution to shareholders rather than reinvestment in operations.

Valuation Level: MDLZ's current P/E ratio of 20.36 appears reasonable for a stable consumer staples company, though the higher forward P/E of 27.4 suggests expectations of slowing earnings growth. The elevated PEG ratio near 2.0 indicates the stock is priced at a premium relative to its growth prospects, while the unusually high EV/EBITDA of 85.4 appears concerning and warrants further investigation into its composition. The PB ratio of 2.75 and PS ratio of 1.92 fall within typical ranges for branded consumer goods companies.

Peer Comparison: Without specific industry average data, a precise comparative analysis cannot be conducted. However, based on general consumer staples sector benchmarks, MDLZ's valuation metrics appear to align with premium branded food companies, though the exceptional EV/EBITDA ratio diverges significantly from typical sector norms. Further peer-specific data would be required to determine whether MDLZ trades at a premium or discount to its direct competitors.

Volatility Risk: MDLZ exhibits significantly low volatility risk, as evidenced by its beta of 0.402, implying the stock is about 60% less volatile than the broader market. The 1-year maximum drawdown of -27.19% is meaningful but is moderated by the stock's inherent defensive characteristics, suggesting a relatively stable price trajectory compared to more cyclical equities.

Other Risks: The absence of significant short interest indicates a broad market consensus on the stock's fair valuation and a lack of prominent bearish catalysts. Given MDLZ's large market capitalization, liquidity risk is negligible, leaving operational execution and input cost inflation as the primary areas of focus for investors.