META

Meta

$628.39

+2.61%
Apr 9, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Meta Platforms, Inc. is the world's largest social media company, operating a 'Family of Apps' ecosystem that includes Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp, serving nearly 4 billion monthly active users. Its core business model packages user data from this vast network to sell targeted digital advertising, establishing it as a dominant platform company in the Internet Content & Information industry. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the company's aggressive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure and the associated soaring capital expenditures, juxtaposed against significant new legal and regulatory risks, as evidenced by recent court rulings on addictive app design and geopolitical factors impacting market sentiment.

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META 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $628.39
Average Target $628.39
High Target $722.6484999999999
Low Target $534.1315

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Meta's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $816.91 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$816.91

16 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

16

covering this stock

Price Range

$503 - $817

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (25%)
Hold
8 (50%)
Sell
4 (25%)

Analyst coverage for META is extensive, with 16 firms providing estimates, and the institutional sentiment remains predominantly bullish, as evidenced by a flurry of 'Outperform', 'Overweight', and 'Buy' ratings from major firms like Morgan Stanley, Bernstein, and Deutsche Bank following the Q4 2025 earnings report. The consensus revenue estimate for the upcoming period is approximately $455.7 billion, with a wide range from a low of $406.1 billion to a high of $488.8 billion, reflecting significant uncertainty around the pace of growth and AI investment returns. The average EPS estimate is $56.67, spanning from $48.65 to $62.01, and the wide dispersion between high and low targets signals a lack of consensus on the company's near-term earnings power amidst its transformative spending. The pattern of recent institutional ratings shows no downgrades following the earnings report, with firms largely reaffirming their positive stances, suggesting the analyst community views the current pressures as temporary and the long-term investment thesis as intact.

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META Technical Analysis

The prevailing price trend for META is a pronounced downtrend, with the stock down 19.15% over the last six months and 1.62% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 which is up 22.2% over the same one-year period. The stock is currently trading at approximately 72% of its 52-week range, with a recent close of $574.46 sitting well below the 52-week high of $796.25 and above the low of $479.80; this positioning near the lower end of the range suggests a potential value opportunity but also reflects substantial negative momentum and investor concerns. Recent short-term momentum is decisively negative and accelerating the longer-term downtrend, with the stock down 12.31% over the past month and 11.68% over the last three months, a stark divergence from the broader market's 3-month decline of 4.0%, indicating company-specific headwinds. The stock's beta of 1.309 confirms it is approximately 31% more volatile than the market, which amplifies both downside risk and potential upside during recoveries, necessitating careful risk management for investors. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $479.80, while formidable resistance sits at the 52-week high of $796.25; a sustained breakdown below the $480 support level would signal a continuation of the bearish trend, whereas a recovery above the recent breakdown point near $650 is needed to suggest stabilization. The stock's maximum drawdown of -33.45% highlights the severe volatility experienced, and the current short ratio of 2.02 indicates elevated bearish sentiment that could fuel a sharp rally on any positive catalyst.

Beta

1.31

1.31x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-33.5%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$480-$796

Price range past year

Annual Return

+7.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMETA ReturnS&P 500
1m-3.9%+0.4%
3m-3.8%-2.0%
6m-10.9%+4.1%
1y+7.3%+23.9%
ytd-3.4%-0.3%

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META Fundamental Analysis

Meta's revenue trajectory remains robust, with Q4 2025 revenue of $59.89 billion representing a strong 23.8% year-over-year growth, though this marks a sequential deceleration from the explosive growth rates seen in prior quarters of 2025. The company's growth is overwhelmingly driven by its core 'Family of Apps' advertising business, which generated $58.94 billion in the last quarter, while the Reality Labs segment contributed a much smaller $955 million, highlighting the continued dominance of the ad model. The company is highly profitable, reporting Q4 2025 net income of $22.77 billion and a net margin of 30.1%, supported by an exceptionally high gross margin of 81.8%. Profitability has been volatile on a quarterly basis, as evidenced by a significant compression in Q3 2025 where net income fell to $2.71 billion due to a massive $18.95 billion income tax expense, but the underlying operating margin of 41.4% remains strong. Meta's balance sheet and cash flow generation are formidable, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39 indicating a conservative capital structure and a current ratio of 2.60 demonstrating ample liquidity. The company generated substantial free cash flow of $46.11 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis and an operating cash flow of $36.21 billion in Q4 alone, providing immense internal funding capacity for its aggressive AI and metaverse investments without reliance on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$59.9B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.23%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.81%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$46.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is META Overvalued?

Given Meta's substantial positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock currently trades at a trailing PE of 27.5x, which is significantly higher than the forward PE of 16.0x, indicating the market expects strong earnings growth to bring the valuation down over the next twelve months. Compared to sector averages, Meta's trailing PE of 27.5x and Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 8.28x are elevated, though this premium is typically justified by the company's superior growth profile, high net margins of 30.1%, and dominant market position within the social media and digital advertising landscape. Historically, Meta's current trailing PE of 27.5x sits above its own multi-year average observable in the historical data, which has frequently ranged in the mid-teens to low-20s, suggesting the market is still pricing in optimistic long-term growth expectations for its AI initiatives despite the recent stock price decline. The current valuation, while off its peaks, is not at a distressed level historically, indicating investors see the recent sell-off as a correction within a longer-term growth story rather than a fundamental breakdown.

PE

27.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 16x~171x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure