MO

Altria

$71.59

-1.68%
Jul 9, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Altria Group, Inc. is a leading U.S. tobacco company that manufactures and sells cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, cigars, and reduced-risk products through subsidiaries including Philip Morris USA and U.S. Smokeless Tobacco. It holds the dominant position in the U.S. cigarette market with the Marlboro brand commanding a 40% share, and also has strategic stakes in Anheuser-Busch InBev and cannabis producer Cronos. The current investor narrative centers on Altria's transition toward smoke-free products via its Njoy vaping acquisition and heated tobacco joint venture, balanced against the secular decline in cigarette volumes and regulatory overhangs. Recent news highlights its high dividend yield and potential payout increases, drawing income-focused investors despite ongoing challenges in its core business.

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MO 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $71.59
Average Target $71.59
High Target $82.33
Low Target $60.85

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Altria's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $93.07 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$93.07

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$57 - $93

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

Altria is covered by 6 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The average EPS estimate is $6.39, with a low of $6.33 and high of $6.47. The average revenue estimate is $21.14 billion, with a range of $20.995 billion to $21.336 billion. While specific price targets are not provided, the EPS estimates imply a forward P/E of 11.4x based on the current price of $72.71, suggesting modest upside. Institutional ratings show a mix: UBS upgraded from Neutral to Buy in January 2026, while Barclays maintains an Underweight rating. Citigroup is Neutral, and Stifel is Buy. The consensus appears moderately bullish, with 3 Buy ratings (UBS, Stifel, BofA) and 2 non-buy ratings (Barclays Underweight, Citigroup Neutral). The wide range of ratings (from Underweight to Buy) indicates uncertainty about the company's transition to reduced-risk products and regulatory risks. The lack of explicit price targets limits the ability to calculate implied upside, but the EPS estimates suggest the stock is reasonably valued with potential for modest gains if earnings meet expectations.

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MO Technical Analysis

Altria is in a strong uptrend, with the stock up 22.9% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500's 19.1% gain. The current price of $72.71 sits at 97.5% of its 52-week range ($54.70–$74.56), indicating the stock is near its highs and reflecting robust momentum. This positioning suggests bullish sentiment but also raises caution about potential overextension, as the stock is trading just 2.5% below its 52-week high. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with a 1-month gain of 5.0% and a 3-month gain of 10.6%, both outpacing the S&P 500's respective returns of -1.25% and 13.56%. The 1-month relative strength of 6.26% versus the S&P 500 confirms near-term outperformance, and the 6-month change of 26.9% aligns with the longer-term uptrend, showing no divergence. The stock's beta of 0.49 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the market, making it a defensive holding. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $54.70, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $74.56. A breakout above $74.56 would signal continued upside momentum, while a breakdown below $54.70 would be a bearish reversal. The low beta suggests the stock is less sensitive to broad market swings, which is typical for a consumer staple.

Beta

0.49

0.49x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-19.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$55-$75

Price range past year

Annual Return

+24.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMO ReturnS&P 500
1m+0.0%+2.0%
3m+6.2%+10.6%
6m+24.4%+8.3%
1y+24.0%+20.4%
ytd+24.9%+10.2%

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MO Fundamental Analysis

Altria's revenue trajectory is mixed but showing recent acceleration. In Q4 2025, revenue grew 14.5% year-over-year to $5.846 billion, driven by smokeable products ($5.119 billion) and smokeless products ($706 million). However, revenue in Q3 2025 was $5.251 billion, and Q2 2025 was $5.290 billion, indicating sequential growth. The multi-quarter trend shows a recovery from Q1 2025's $4.519 billion, suggesting a rebound in demand or pricing power. The company's profitability is robust, with a net income of $1.117 billion in Q4 2025 and a net margin of 19.1%. Gross margin is high at 62.1% for Q4 2025, though down from 72.6% in Q3 2025, likely due to product mix shifts. Operating margin for Q4 2025 was 28.2%, reflecting strong pricing but some cost pressures. The company is consistently profitable, with trailing twelve-month net income of $6.947 billion. Altria's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of -7.34, which is negative due to negative shareholders' equity (a common feature for tobacco companies with large debt and share buybacks). Free cash flow is strong at $9.074 billion TTM, and the company generated $3.271 billion in operating cash flow in Q4 2025 alone. The current ratio of 0.61 indicates tight liquidity, but the massive cash flow generation supports dividend payments and debt servicing. ROE is negative (-198.4%) due to negative equity, but ROA of 27.6% reflects efficient asset use.

Quarterly Revenue

$5.8B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+14.49%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

62.11%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$9.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Smokeable Products
Smokeless Products
Other Segments

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Valuation Analysis: Is MO Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 14.03x, while the forward P/E is 12.37x, implying the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests a 12% expected earnings increase, which is reasonable given the company's stable cash flows. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but tobacco typically trades at 10-15x), Altria's P/E of 14.03x is near the higher end, reflecting its dominant market position and high dividend yield. The P/S ratio of 4.80x is also elevated relative to historical levels. Historically, Altria's trailing P/E has ranged from 5.2x to 23.5x over the past five years. The current 14.03x is near the middle of this range, suggesting the stock is fairly valued relative to its own history. The PEG ratio of -0.38 is negative due to negative earnings growth expectations (likely from write-offs), so it is not meaningful. The dividend yield of 7.2% is attractive and supported by a payout ratio of 100.2%, indicating the dividend is fully covered by earnings.

PE

14.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -8x~81x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

10.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple