MTN
MTNVail Resorts operates a premier collection of mountain resorts and urban ski areas in North America.
As an industry leader, its core advantage is a powerful network of geographically diverse destinations under a single, highly effective season pass program.
Updated: January 14, 2026, 16:00 EST
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MTN Today?
Based on a comprehensive review, MTN presents significant challenges across technical, fundamental, and valuation metrics that currently outweigh its potential strengths.
Technical Analysis: MTN is in a clear downtrend, underperforming the market substantially over recent months. While not at an extreme low, the negative momentum and high maximum drawdown suggest continued vulnerability rather than a potential rebound.
Fundamentals: The company's core issue is severe profitability, with significant operating losses despite decent revenue. Financial health is concerning due to low liquidity and high financial leverage, while operational efficiency metrics are deeply negative, indicating poor capital allocation.
Valuation & Risk: Valuation metrics are largely negative or appear disconnected from fundamentals, suggesting the stock may be overvalued. Although its beta indicates lower market volatility, the substantial historical drawdown highlights real downside risk.
Recommendation: Based on the analysis, MTN is not a buy at this time. The combination of persistent selling pressure, deep profitability problems, leveraged balance sheet, and questionable valuation creates a high-risk profile. Investors should wait for clear signs of operational turnaround and improved financial stability before considering a position.
MTN 12-Month Price Forecast
RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026
Of course. Here is a 12-month investment outlook for MTN (Vail Resorts):
12-Month Outlook for MTN
The outlook for MTN is cautious, with its performance heavily dependent on the upcoming winter season. The key catalyst will be strong growth in season pass sales and favorable early-season weather, which could signal a rebound in demand and justify its premium valuation. However, significant risks remain, including its high financial leverage, sensitivity to poor snowfall, and potential consumer pullback due to economic pressures. Given the lack of a clear analyst target and the current negative momentum, the stock faces a challenging path to recovery, and investors should prioritize evidence of improved operational efficiency and debt reduction before establishing a position.
Wall Street Consensus
Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about MTN's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $142.61, indicating expected upside potential.
Bulls vs Bears: MTN Investment Factors
Overall, MTN has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.
Bullish
- Jefferies Upgrade to Buy: Analyst upgrade based on discounted stock price, new leadership, and improved pricing strategy
- Strong Q3 2025 Results: Stock jumped 7.9% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter results
- Recurring Revenue Model: Benefiting from season pass structure that provides steady cash flow
- Optimistic 2026 Forecasts: Stock up 8.69% amid positive financial outlook for upcoming season
- Turnaround Strategy Progress: CEO reports elements of turnaround strategy are taking hold despite challenges
Bearish
- Declining Pass Sales: Company sold fewer ski passes heading into peak season, raising concerns
- Morgan Stanley Downgrade: Price target lowered, causing stock to fall 2.8% in recent session
- Recent Share Price Weakness: Stock has been under pressure, creating valuation gap concerns
- Widening Quarterly Loss: Q1 2026 results expected to show continued financial challenges
- Seasonal Business Risks: Weather-dependent operations create inherent volatility in performance
MTN Technical Analysis
MTN has demonstrated weak overall performance, showing substantial declines across multiple timeframes while significantly underperforming the broader market.
The stock has declined sharply over both short-term periods, with an 8.53% one-month drop and 5.68% three-month decrease, substantially trailing the market by 9.05% over the quarter. This pronounced underperformance suggests persistent selling pressure relative to broader market conditions.
Currently trading approximately 24% above its 52-week low while remaining 24% below its high, MTN appears to be in a neutral position within its yearly range. Though not at extreme levels, the stock's negative momentum and high maximum drawdown of 28.85% indicate continued vulnerability rather than oversold conditions.
| Period | MTN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -11.8% | +1.3% |
| 3m | -4.1% | +5.7% |
| 6m | -14.2% | +10.6% |
| 1y | -22.8% | +16.5% |
| ytd | +6.5% | +1.1% |
MTN Fundamental Analysis
Revenue & Profitability MTN maintained stable quarterly revenue around $271 million with strong gross margins near 90%, yet reported significant operating losses of approximately $212 million last quarter. Negative net income ratios around -69% and deeply negative EBITDA margins reflect severe profitability challenges beneath the surface-level gross margin strength. The company appears to be generating revenue efficiently but struggling with operational cost control.
Financial Health The company shows concerning liquidity with current and quick ratios below 1.0, indicating potential short-term obligations pressure. While the debt ratio appears moderate at 14%, the high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.1 and low cash flow to debt ratio of 0.39 suggest leveraged positioning with limited cash flow coverage for debt obligations. The interest coverage ratio of 4.1 provides some buffer against immediate solvency concerns.
Operational Efficiency MTN demonstrates poor operational efficiency with negative returns on assets (-3.2%) and equity (-119%), indicating ineffective deployment of capital. The asset turnover of 0.047 reflects minimal revenue generation relative to the asset base, while an exceptionally high equity multiplier of 36.8 highlights extreme financial leverage amplifying these negative returns. Operating cash flow per share of $8.80 suggests some cash generation capability despite the operational challenges.
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Level: MTN's TTM PE of 16.93 suggests a moderate valuation, but numerous negative ratios raise significant concerns. The negative forward PE, negative EV/EBITDA, and negative PEG ratio indicate the market anticipates substantial earnings deterioration, regulatory challenges, or operational issues impacting profitability. These metrics collectively suggest the stock may be overvalued despite certain ratios appearing reasonable in isolation.
Peer Comparison: Without industry average data, a formal benchmark comparison isn't possible. However, a PB ratio of 6.69 appears elevated for most sectors, particularly if the company is experiencing profitability challenges as indicated by other ratios. The combination of high asset valuation multiples alongside negative earnings-based metrics suggests MTN's valuation may be disconnected from fundamental performance relative to typical industry standards.
Investment Risk Disclosure
Volatility Risk: With a beta of 0.816, MTN exhibits lower volatility than the broader market, suggesting it is less sensitive to systemic swings. However, the significant one-year maximum drawdown of -28.85% indicates the stock has experienced substantial price declines from its peak, highlighting meaningful downside risk despite its lower beta.
Other Risks: The absence of notable short interest suggests a general lack of negative speculative pressure on the stock. However, risks may stem from other factors exclusive of short-selling activity, such as company-specific operational challenges, industry headwinds, or broader macroeconomic conditions impacting its performance. Liquidity should also be assessed independently as low trading volumes could present execution challenges.
FAQs
Bearish. Despite recent leadership optimism, MTN shows severe profitability challenges with negative income ratios and concerning liquidity. Significant technical underperformance and a negative analyst consensus outweigh the potential from its recurring revenue model. This stock is only suitable for highly risk-tolerant investors speculating on a successful long-term turnaround.
Based on the valuation metrics and fundamental analysis, MTN stock appears to be overvalued. Key valuation metrics including a negative forward PE ratio (-7.13), a deeply negative PEG ratio (-3.02), and an elevated PB ratio (6.69) collectively signal substantial concerns. The primary reasons behind this overvaluation are severe profitability challenges—evidenced by significant operating losses and negative returns on equity (-119%)—coupled with poor operational efficiency. Despite generating stable revenue, the market's pricing reflects unsustainable growth expectations given the company's fundamental operational and financial weaknesses.
Based on the provided information, here are the key risks of holding MTN stock, ordered by importance:
1. Severe Profitability and Operational Risk: Despite stable revenue and high gross margins, the company is reporting significant operating losses and deeply negative returns on assets and equity, indicating a fundamental inability to control costs and generate profits from its operations. 2. Highly Leveraged Financial Structure Risk: An extremely high equity multiplier of 36.8 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.1 reveal that the company is critically dependent on debt, which severely amplifies losses and poses a substantial risk to shareholder equity. 3. Persistent Negative Price Momentum and Downside Risk: The stock has demonstrated substantial and prolonged underperformance relative to the market, coupled with a high maximum drawdown of -28.85%, signaling a strong trend of selling pressure and vulnerability to further price declines. 4. Potential Liquidity and Short-Term Obligation Risk: Current and quick ratios below 1.0 suggest the company may face challenges in meeting its short-term liabilities, which could lead to financial distress if cash flow becomes constrained.
Of course. Based on the provided financial analysis and industry context, here is a professional forecast for MTN (Vail Resorts) stock through 2026.
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**MTN Stock Forecast for 2026**
1. Target Price Range: * Base Case (2026): $110 - $135. This scenario assumes a continuation of current challenges, with modest growth in pass sales offset by high operational costs and debt servicing, leading to a gradual decline from the current price. * Bull Case (2026): $160 - $190. This is contingent on a series of exceptional winter seasons, successful cost-cutting initiatives, and a significant reduction in leverage, allowing the company to better capitalize on its strong brand and resort assets.
2. Key Growth Drivers: * Season Pass Ecosystem: The core driver is the continued adoption and pricing power of the Epic Pass, which provides stable, upfront revenue and locks in guest visitation. * Experiential Demand: A sustained consumer preference for spending on experiences (like ski vacations) over goods, especially in a potential cooling inflation environment. * Operational Efficiency: Success in managing labor and operational costs, which is critical for converting high gross margins into positive net income.
3. Main Assumptions: * The forecast assumes no major acquisitions that significantly alter the capital structure. * It presumes average to above-average snowfall in its key western U.S. resorts, as poor conditions are a major risk. * The U.S. economy avoids a deep recession, preventing a substantial pullback in consumer discretionary spending.
4. Uncertainty & Risks: * This forecast is highly uncertain due to MTN's extreme sensitivity to weather conditions and its high financial leverage. The provided data showing a negative Return on Equity of -119% and a high debt-to-equity ratio of 5.1 indicates that without improving profitability and reducing debt, the stock faces significant headwinds. The path to the bull case is narrow and requires excellent execution and favorable conditions.
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