Vail Resorts, Inc.

Based on the comprehensive analysis, MTN presents significant investment concerns across all key areas.

Technical Analysis: The stock is in a clear downtrend, trading well below its 52-week high and demonstrating persistent negative momentum relative to the broader market. While not at an extreme oversold level, the technical picture points to continued weakness and a lack of buyer conviction.

Fundamental Analysis: MTN's fundamentals are critically weak, marked by severe operational losses, unsustainable negative margins, and worrying liquidity constraints. The alarming debt levels combined with deeply negative returns on equity and assets indicate a company in severe financial distress with poor operational efficiency.

Valuation & Risk: The stock appears overvalued based on negative forward earnings expectations and poor cash flow generation. While its beta suggests lower market volatility, the substantial maximum drawdown and dire fundamentals present acute company-specific risks that overshadow any perceived stability.

Recommendation: DO NOT BUY. MTN exhibits a combination of strong negative price momentum, critically unhealthy financials, and a valuation that is not supported by its earnings potential. The severe profitability issues and high solvency risks make it an exceptionally speculative and high-risk investment unsuitable for most portfolios. Investors should consider alternatives with stronger fundamentals and clearer growth prospects. *Note: This is not investment advice, for reference only.*

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the comprehensive analysis provided, the 12-month outlook for MTN is highly negative.

Key catalysts for a potential recovery are scarce, as the company is mired in severe operational losses and high debt, requiring a significant turnaround in its core business fundamentals that seems unlikely in the near term. The primary risks are acute, including a high probability of continued financial distress, liquidity constraints, and further erosion of shareholder value due to unsustainable negative margins. Given the absence of analyst targets and the overwhelming negative evidence, a reasonable target price range cannot be established; the risk of the stock price declining further from the current $137.75 is substantial.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Vail Resorts, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $143.26, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, MTN has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

MTN has demonstrated weak performance over recent periods, trading significantly below its 52-week high amid notable downside volatility. The stock's negative momentum is highlighted by its consistent underperformance relative to the broader market.

Short-term performance has been challenging, with MTN declining approximately 1% over one month and more than 8% over three months. This represents a significant underperformance compared to the market, as indicated by the -8.29% relative strength figure, suggesting the stock has been a notable laggard.

Currently trading at $137.75, MTN sits approximately 22% below its 52-week high and about 9% above its 52-week low. While not at an extreme oversold level, the price is positioned in the lower portion of its annual range, with the substantial 24% maximum drawdown reflecting persistent selling pressure over the past year.

Revenue & Profitability MTN's operations demonstrate severe financial distress with consecutive quarters of gross losses, evidenced by Q1 2026 gross margin of -11.8% and an operating margin of -77.4%. The company's steep losses are unsustainable, as revenue remains stagnant while costs substantially exceed income. Negative net margins and EPS of -$5.20 highlight deep profitability challenges requiring urgent corrective measures.

Financial Health The company exhibits critical liquidity constraints with a current ratio of 0.54 and quick ratio of 0.46, indicating insufficient short-term asset coverage. High leverage is evident through a debt-to-equity ratio of 21.86 and weak interest coverage of -4.09, compounded by a cash flow-to-debt ratio of only 0.09. These metrics signal elevated solvency risks and limited financial flexibility.

Operational Efficiency MTN's operational performance is severely deficient, with return on equity plunging to -119.4% and return on assets at -3.2%. Extremely low asset turnover of 0.047 reflects poor utilization of capital to generate revenue. The negative cash conversion cycle of 61.7 days further indicates inefficient working capital management amid deteriorating fundamental efficiency.

Valuation Level

Based on the provided metrics, MTN appears to be significantly overvalued. The trailing P/E of 16.54 is positive, but the forward P/E is negative (-7.13), indicating that analysts' earnings expectations for the next year are also negative. This negative forward earnings projection makes the P/E ratio an unreliable indicator on its own. The deeply negative PEG ratio (-3.02) and EV/EBITDA (-61.55) further confirm severe valuation concerns, as they signal that the company is not expected to grow earnings and is generating very poor cash flow relative to its enterprise value. The high price-to-book ratio of 6.54 suggests the market is valuing the company's equity at a large premium to its accounting net asset value.

Peer Comparison

A direct peer comparison is not possible as industry average data was not provided. However, the extreme negativity of the forward-looking valuation ratios (Forward P/E, PEG, and EV/EBITDA) would be highly unusual and concerning in almost any industry context. Typically, a negative forward P/E and PEG ratio are severe red flags, suggesting the market anticipates substantial losses. Without industry benchmarks, the analysis is limited, but these metrics alone point to a valuation that is disconnected from the company's fundamental earnings and cash flow prospects.

Volatility Risk MTN's beta of 0.79 indicates it is less volatile than the broader market, suggesting lower systematic risk. However, the one-year maximum drawdown of -24.34% highlights significant downside volatility during adverse market conditions despite its lower beta. This suggests the stock can still experience substantial price declines.

Other Risks The absence of short interest suggests a lack of strong negative sentiment or aggressive bearish bets against the company. However, risks are likely concentrated in company-specific factors or industry dynamics, which should be monitored closely by investors.