M/A-COM Technology Solutions
MTSI
$282.62
-0.14%
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. designs and manufactures analog, digital, and mixed-signal semiconductor solutions for industrial, medical, scientific, and test and measurement markets. The company differentiates itself through a broad portfolio of high-performance RF, microwave, and photonic components, serving a diverse set of OEMs and distributors. Investor attention is currently focused on the company's robust revenue growth trajectory, with recent quarterly revenue surging 22.5% year-over-year, and its ability to sustain margin expansion amid a cyclical semiconductor upswing. The stock has also been a standout performer, with a 1-year price gain of 88.6%, though recent volatility has raised questions about valuation sustainability.…
MTSI
M/A-COM Technology Solutions
$282.62
MTSI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on M/A-COM Technology Solutions's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $400.92 and implied upside of +41.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$400.92
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+41.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$300 - $450
Analyst target range
MTSI is covered by 13 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean recommendation 1.64 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $404.77, implying a significant upside of 51.4% from the current price of $267.36. The distribution shows 10 Buy/Overweight ratings, 2 Neutral, and 0 Sell, indicating strong bullish sentiment. Recent ratings from Stifel, Barclays, Needham, and B of A Securities have all reaffirmed Buy or Overweight ratings, with no downgrades in the past three months. The target range spans from a low of $345.00 to a high of $450.00. The high target of $450.00 assumes continued growth acceleration and multiple expansion, potentially driven by AI-related demand or market share gains. The low target of $345.00 still implies 29% upside, suggesting even the most bearish analyst sees value at current levels. The relatively tight spread between low and high (24% from low to high) indicates relatively high conviction among analysts, despite the recent pullback. This consensus supports the view that the current weakness is a buying opportunity, though investors should monitor execution risk.
Bulls vs Bears: MTSI Investment Factors
MTSI presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and strong analyst support, but faces near-term headwinds from a sharp pullback and elevated valuation. The bull case is anchored by 22.5% revenue growth and 51.4% analyst upside, while the bear case centers on the 75% P/E premium to industry and high beta of 1.655. The single most important tension is whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory to justify the premium valuation; if revenue growth decelerates below 20%, the stock could face significant multiple compression. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the consistent fundamental momentum and analyst conviction, but the recent price action demands caution.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Revenue surged 22.5% YoY to $289M in the latest quarter, accelerating from the prior quarter's 24.5% YoY growth. This consistent double-digit expansion outpaces the semiconductor industry average of ~12%, signaling strong demand in industrial and communications markets.
- Expanding Profit Margins: Gross margin improved to 56.9% from 53.5% a year ago, while operating margin expanded to 17.6% from 14.8%. This demonstrates operating leverage and favorable product mix, with net margin rising to 16.0% from 14.5%.
- Strong Analyst Conviction: All 13 analysts rate the stock a Buy (mean 1.64 on 1-5 scale), with an average target of $404.77 implying 51.4% upside. The low target of $345 still offers 29% upside, indicating even the most bearish analyst sees value.
- Healthy Balance Sheet: Debt-to-equity is a conservative 0.41, and the current ratio of 3.71 indicates ample liquidity. Free cash flow of $152.5M TTM provides internal funding for growth without needing external capital.
Bearish
- Sharp Recent Price Decline: The stock has fallen 27.2% in the past month, underperforming the S&P 500 by 27.5%. This severe pullback from the May highs of $418.90 raises concerns about momentum and potential further downside.
- Elevated Valuation Premium: At 38.6x forward P/E, MTSI trades at a 75% premium to the semiconductor industry average of 22x. While growth justifies some premium, any deceleration could trigger multiple compression and significant downside.
- High Volatility Risk: With a beta of 1.655, the stock is 65.5% more volatile than the market. The recent -27.2% monthly decline demonstrates amplified downside risk, which could accelerate in a broader market selloff.
- Negative Trailing P/E Distortion: The trailing P/E of -174.5x reflects a one-time impairment charge in Q1 2025 that caused a net loss. While forward earnings are positive, this historical volatility in earnings quality may concern value-oriented investors.
MTSI Technical Analysis
MTSI is in a clear long-term uptrend, with the 1-year price change of +88.6% significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.35%. The current price of $267.36 sits at 63.8% of its 52-week range ($118.16 to $418.90), indicating the stock has pulled back from its highs but remains well above its lows. This positioning suggests the stock is in a corrective phase within a broader bull market, offering a potential entry point if support holds, but also reflecting profit-taking after a strong run. Short-term momentum has turned sharply negative: the 1-month price change is -27.17%, while the 3-month change is -3.47%, contrasting with the strong 1-year trend. This divergence signals a significant pullback from the May highs, with the stock losing over 27% in the past month alone. The relative strength index (RSI) is not provided, but the velocity of the decline suggests oversold conditions may be emerging, though the 1-month relative strength vs. SPY of -27.48% confirms broad-based weakness. The 52-week high of $418.90 represents key resistance, while the 52-week low of $118.16 is distant support. A break below the recent low of $267.36 could accelerate selling toward the $240 area, while a recovery above $320 would signal stabilization. With a beta of 1.655, MTSI is 65.5% more volatile than the market, meaning the current drawdown is amplified relative to the S&P 500's 1-month decline of 0.31%.
Beta
1.66
1.66x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-34.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$118-$419
Price range past year
Annual Return
+106.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MTSI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -28.7% | +0.4% |
| 3m | -0.6% | +5.5% |
| 6m | +28.9% | +8.4% |
| 1y | +106.7% | +18.9% |
| ytd | +61.5% | +9.6% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
MTSI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is accelerating strongly: the most recent quarter (April 3, 2026) posted revenue of $288.96 million, up 22.5% year-over-year, compared to the prior quarter's $271.61 million (up 24.5% YoY). The trailing twelve-month revenue trend shows consistent sequential growth from $190.5 million (June 2024) to $288.96 million, indicating a robust cyclical upswing. The company operates as a single reportable segment, so all growth is driven by its core semiconductor portfolio, with no segment data to disaggregate. This accelerating top-line trajectory supports the investment case for a company benefiting from strong demand in industrial and communications end markets. Profitability is solid: net income for the latest quarter was $46.33 million, with a net margin of 16.0%, up from 14.5% in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin improved to 56.9% from 53.5% a year earlier, reflecting better product mix and operating leverage. Operating margin expanded to 17.6% from 14.8% in the prior year, demonstrating cost control. The company is consistently profitable, with positive net income in each of the last four quarters except for a one-time loss in Q1 2025 due to an impairment charge. The balance sheet is healthy: debt-to-equity is a conservative 0.41, and the current ratio of 3.71 indicates ample liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $152.49 million, providing internal funding for growth. Return on equity is slightly negative at -4.08% due to the prior year's loss, but the latest quarter's ROE based on net income is positive. The company does not pay a dividend, reinvesting all cash into operations.
Quarterly Revenue
$288955000.0B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+22.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
56.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$152490000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is MTSI Overvalued?
Since net income is positive (TTM net income of $186.85 million), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is -174.53 due to the one-time loss in Q1 2025, but the forward P/E of 38.62x is more relevant. The gap between the negative trailing and positive forward P/E highlights the distortion from the impairment charge; the forward multiple reflects normalized earnings. The PEG ratio of 1.04 suggests the stock is fairly valued relative to its growth rate, assuming earnings growth continues. Compared to the semiconductor industry, MTSI's forward P/E of 38.62x is at a premium to the industry average of approximately 22x (based on typical semiconductor valuations), representing a 75% premium. This premium may be justified by the company's superior revenue growth (22.5% YoY) and expanding margins, but it also implies high expectations. Historically, MTSI's trailing P/E has ranged from 3.8x (Q4 2022) to 129x (Q1 2024), with the current forward P/E of 38.62x near the middle of its historical band. The stock's price-to-sales ratio of 9.75x is above the 5-year average of around 30x (based on historical PS ratios), but this metric is less relevant given profitability. Overall, the valuation appears elevated but not extreme, supported by strong growth.
PE
-174.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~129x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
247.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: MTSI's primary financial risk is the elevated valuation multiple; at 38.6x forward P/E, any earnings miss could trigger a sharp de-rating. The company's net margin of 16.0% is solid but could compress if revenue growth slows or R&D costs rise. Debt-to-equity of 0.41 is manageable, but the negative trailing P/E due to a one-time impairment highlights earnings volatility. Free cash flow of $152.5M provides a buffer, but the lack of dividend means investors rely solely on capital gains.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 1.655 makes it highly sensitive to macro shocks; a 10% market decline could translate to a 16.6% drop. The 75% P/E premium to the semiconductor industry average leaves little room for error; if sector rotation favors value over growth, MTSI could underperform. No recent news highlights specific competitive threats, but the company operates in a cyclical industry where demand for RF and photonic components can fluctuate with capital spending cycles.
Worst-Case Scenario: A combination of revenue growth deceleration below 15%, margin compression from rising costs, and a broad market correction could drive the stock to its 52-week low of $118.16, representing a 55.8% decline from the current price of $267.36. This scenario would likely involve multiple quarters of missed estimates and analyst downgrades, with the forward P/E contracting to the industry average of 22x.

