Nebius Group N.V.

Analysis of NBIS Stock

Technical Perspective NBIS shows strong long-term performance but is currently experiencing a short-term correction, declining approximately 6% over the past month. Trading near $97.52 places it in the upper-middle of its 52-week range, suggesting it is neither severely overbought nor oversold. The high beta indicates susceptibility to market volatility, requiring investors to have a strong risk tolerance.

Fundamental Assessment The company exhibits impressive revenue growth but faces severe profitability challenges, with significant operating and net losses. While liquidity is solid, the negative interest coverage and poor returns on assets/equity highlight operational inefficiencies. These fundamentals paint a picture of a growth-stage company struggling to translate top-line expansion into bottom-line results.

Valuation & Risk Considerations NBIS appears significantly overvalued based on traditional metrics, with an extremely high trailing P/E and negative forward earnings projections. The stock carries elevated volatility risk, evidenced by its high beta and substantial historical drawdowns. Additional concerns include potential liquidity issues, given the lack of reported short interest and generally thin market attention.

Investment Recommendation Based on the comprehensive analysis, NBIS is not recommended for purchase at this time. The combination of negative profitability, operational inefficiencies, and extreme valuation metrics presents substantial downside risk. While revenue growth is notable, investors should wait for clearer signs of sustainable profitability and improved operational execution before considering a position. The stock is better suited for monitoring rather than immediate investment.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the provided analysis, the 12-month outlook for NBIS is cautious with a bias towards the downside.

The primary catalysts for any positive movement remain the company's impressive revenue growth; however, this must be validated by a clear path to profitability and improved operational efficiency to convince the market. The key risks are pronounced and include persistent operational losses, a significantly overvalued price based on current metrics, and high volatility that could amplify losses during any broad market decline. Given the absence of an analyst target and the prevailing negative fundamentals, the stock appears to face substantial headwinds, suggesting that the current price near $97.52 may not be sustainable, with a potential for a lower trading range over the coming year.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Nebius Group N.V.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $107.61, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, NBIS has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

NBIS has demonstrated volatile yet substantially positive performance over the past year, currently trading significantly above its 52-week low after a notable rally.

The stock has faced recent headwinds, declining over 6% in the past month and approximately 5% over three months, underperforming the broader market by a similar margin during this period. This short-term weakness highlights a potential correction after its substantial upward move.

Based on its 52-week range from $18.31 to $141.10, the current price near $97.52 sits in the upper-middle portion of its historical range. While not at an extreme peak, the recent negative momentum and its high beta suggest it may be susceptible to near-term volatility rather than being in a clear overbought or oversold condition.

Revenue & Profitability NBIS demonstrated substantial revenue growth from Q3 to Q4 2025, increasing from $146 million to $228 million. Despite maintaining a healthy gross profit margin near 70%, the company posted significant operating losses with an operating income ratio of -103% in Q4, indicating profitability challenges at the operational level. The net income ratio deteriorated to -110% in Q4, reflecting escalating losses despite revenue growth.

Financial Health The company maintains solid liquidity with a current ratio of 3.1 and cash ratio of 2.4, supported by strong cash per share of $15.25. However, the debt-equity ratio of 1.06 indicates moderate leverage, while the negative interest coverage ratio of -6.1 suggests insufficient operating income to cover interest expenses. The cash flow to debt ratio of 0.17 shows limited ability to service debt from operating cash flows.

Operational Efficiency NBIS shows concerning operational metrics with negative returns on both assets (-2.0%) and equity (-5.4%), indicating inefficient capital utilization. The asset turnover of 0.02 reflects poor revenue generation from the asset base, while the extended days sales outstanding of 285 days points to inefficient receivables management. These factors collectively signal significant operational challenges requiring attention.

Based on NBIS's trailing PE ratio of 812.67, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued on a traditional earnings basis. A PE ratio this high indicates that the market is pricing the stock at an extreme premium relative to its current earnings. The negative forward PE and negative EV/EBITDA ratios severely compound this concern, as they signal that the company is expected to generate a net loss in the coming period and has negative operating profitability, making conventional valuation metrics highly unreliable.

Without industry average data for a peer comparison, the analysis is limited. However, the extreme deviation of these metrics from any reasonable benchmark for a profitable enterprise underscores the stock's precarious valuation. The negative PEG ratio, which typically suggests a company is not growing earnings fast enough to justify its price, further confirms the severe overvaluation signaled by the other metrics.

Volatility Risk: NBIS exhibits above-market volatility with a Beta of 1.154, indicating it is roughly 15% more volatile than the broader market. This elevated volatility is confirmed by the extreme 1-year maximum drawdown of -58.27%, highlighting the potential for significant capital depreciation during market downturns.

Other Risks: While the stock bears no immediate pressure from short sellers, the complete absence of reported short interest could suggest extremely low liquidity or limited market attention. This inherent illiquidity is a primary risk, potentially leading to wider bid-ask spreads and difficulty executing trades without impacting the share price.