Nasdaq, Inc.
NDAQ
$93.62
-0.55%
Nasdaq, Inc. is a global technology company that operates the Nasdaq stock exchange, provides market data and index services, and offers financial technology solutions for capital markets, financial crime management, and regulatory compliance. As a leading exchange operator and fintech innovator, Nasdaq differentiates itself through its iconic brand, diversified revenue streams, and strategic pivot toward high-growth software and data businesses, particularly following the acquisitions of Verafin and Adenza. The current investor narrative centers on Nasdaq's transformation into a diversified technology company, with recent catalysts including the SEC's approval of its tokenized settlement pilot, the potential for high-profile IPOs like SpaceX under its 'fast entry' rules, and the ongoing integration of its financial technology segment, which is expected to drive long-term growth and margin expansion.…
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.
$93.62
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NDAQ Today?
Rating: Buy. The thesis is that NDAQ is a high-quality exchange and fintech company trading at a reasonable forward PE of 20.24x with a PEG of 0.51, offering a favorable risk/reward given its diversified revenue and strategic growth catalysts. The consensus rating is 'Buy' with an average target of $110.07, implying 16.9% upside.
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NDAQ 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. The valuation metrics (PEG 0.51, forward PE 20.24x) suggest the stock is undervalued relative to its growth potential, and analyst sentiment is strongly positive. However, the recent revenue growth deceleration and underperformance vs. the S&P 500 warrant caution. If revenue growth accelerates in the coming quarters, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, the high multiple could compress. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if Q2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 4% and the company raises guidance. It would be downgraded to neutral if growth remains below 2% or if the forward PE expands above 25x without corresponding earnings growth.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nasdaq, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $110.07 and implied upside of +17.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$110.07
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+17.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$84 - $135
Analyst target range
Nasdaq is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.76 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $110.07, implying an upside of approximately 16.9% from the current price of $94.19. The distribution of ratings is bullish, with no Sell ratings and a majority of Overweight or Buy ratings, as evidenced by recent actions from Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and TD Cowen, which have maintained or upgraded their positive stances. This consensus reflects confidence in Nasdaq's strategic direction and growth prospects, particularly in its financial technology and data businesses.
Bulls vs Bears: NDAQ Investment Factors
The bull case for NDAQ is supported by a compelling valuation (PEG 0.51), strong analyst consensus, diversified revenue, and high margins, while the bear case highlights slowing growth, underperformance, high valuation, and leverage. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the attractive forward PE of 20.24x and the potential for fintech-driven growth, but the key tension is whether the company can accelerate revenue growth from its current ~2% pace to justify the premium valuation. If growth accelerates, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, the high multiple could compress, leading to underperformance.
Bullish
- Attractive PEG ratio of 0.51: With a PEG ratio of 0.51, NDAQ trades at a significant discount to its expected earnings growth, suggesting the market has not fully priced in the growth potential from its fintech segment. This is a key valuation metric for growth investors, indicating potential upside if growth materializes as expected.
- Strong analyst consensus with 16.9% upside: The consensus rating is 'Buy' with an average price target of $110.07, implying a 16.9% upside from the current price of $94.19. With no sell ratings and a mean recommendation score of 1.76, analysts are overwhelmingly positive on the stock's prospects.
- Diversified revenue streams: Nasdaq's revenue is well-diversified across Market Services ($1.047B), Capital Access Platforms ($565M), and Market Technology ($517M) in Q1 2026, reducing reliance on any single segment. This diversification provides stability and multiple growth drivers, including the high-growth fintech segment.
- High margins and profitability: Q1 2026 gross margin was 65.84% and operating margin was 30.74%, reflecting strong pricing power and operational efficiency. Net margin of 24.29% demonstrates the company's ability to convert revenue into profit, supporting its premium valuation.
Bearish
- Slowing revenue growth: Q1 2026 revenue growth was only 2.25% YoY, and sequential revenue has plateaued around $2.08-2.14B over the past few quarters. This suggests the anticipated acceleration from the fintech segment has not yet materialized, raising concerns about the growth narrative.
- Underperformance vs. S&P 500: Over the past year, NDAQ returned -2.11% while the S&P 500 gained 18.19%, resulting in a relative strength of -20.30%. This persistent underperformance indicates that the market is not rewarding the stock despite its strategic initiatives, possibly due to execution risks.
- High valuation with trailing PE of 31x: The trailing PE of 31.03x is elevated compared to the broader market, implying high expectations for future earnings growth. If growth disappoints, the stock could face multiple compression, leading to significant downside.
- Elevated debt levels: Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81 and EV/EBITDA of 20.64x indicate a leveraged balance sheet, partly due to the Adenza acquisition. High debt increases financial risk, especially if interest rates remain elevated, and could limit financial flexibility.
NDAQ Technical Analysis
Nasdaq's stock has exhibited a volatile, range-bound pattern over the past year, with the current price of $94.19 sitting near the upper end of its 52-week range of $76.55 to $101.79, representing approximately 92% of the range. The 1-year price change is -2.11%, indicating a slight decline despite the recent recovery, while the stock has underperformed the S&P 500, which gained 18.19% over the same period. This positioning near the highs suggests a recent resurgence in momentum, but the negative relative strength of -20.30% over the past year highlights persistent underperformance versus the broader market, which may signal a lagging recovery rather than a new uptrend.
Beta
0.97
0.97x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$77-$102
Price range past year
Annual Return
-3.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NDAQ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +10.6% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +5.0% | +5.1% |
| 6m | +9.5% | +13.8% |
| 1y | -3.4% | +22.2% |
| ytd | -3.1% | +13.1% |
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NDAQ Fundamental Analysis
Nasdaq's revenue growth has been modest but steady, with Q1 2026 revenue of $2.137 billion, up 2.25% year-over-year, and a sequential increase from $2.08 billion in Q4 2025. The company's revenue mix is diversified, with Market Services generating $1.047 billion, Capital Access Platforms $565 million, and Market Technology $517 million, reflecting the growing contribution of its fintech and data businesses. However, the growth rate has decelerated from earlier quarters, with Q2 2025 revenue of $2.09 billion and Q3 2025 at $1.958 billion, indicating a plateau. This suggests that while Nasdaq's core exchange and data businesses remain stable, the anticipated acceleration from its financial technology segment has yet to fully materialize, making the investment case dependent on successful execution of its growth strategy.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.1B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+2.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
65.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NDAQ Overvalued?
Given Nasdaq's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 31.03x, while the forward PE is 20.24x, implying that the market expects significant earnings growth, with the forward multiple representing a 35% discount to the trailing multiple. This gap suggests that analysts anticipate a substantial improvement in profitability, likely driven by cost synergies from the Adenza acquisition and margin expansion in the fintech segment. The PEG ratio of 0.51 further supports this view, indicating that the stock is attractively priced relative to its expected earnings growth, which is a key consideration for growth-oriented investors.
PE
31.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 20x~40x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
20.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Nasdaq's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81 and EV/EBITDA of 20.64x indicate significant leverage, primarily from the Adenza acquisition. This increases interest expense (Q1 2026: $87M) and reduces financial flexibility, especially if interest rates remain high. The company's revenue growth has decelerated to 2.25% YoY, and sequential revenue has plateaued, suggesting that the expected synergies from fintech acquisitions are not yet visible. If growth remains sluggish, the high trailing PE of 31x could be unsustainable, leading to multiple compression and a potential de-rating. Additionally, the payout ratio of 33.6% and dividend yield of 1.08% are modest, but any cash flow strain could impact dividend growth.