Newmont Corporation

**Technical Analysis**

NEM has shown impressive bullish momentum, significantly outperforming the market over recent months. However, trading near the upper end of its 52-week range suggests the stock may be overbought in the short term, indicating potential for a near-term pullback before resuming its uptrend. Current price action reflects strong investor confidence but warrants caution for new entry points.

**Fundamentals**

The company exhibits robust profitability and financial health, with strong revenue generation, high margins, and minimal debt. While operational efficiency metrics like ROE are moderate, healthy cash flows and ample liquidity underscore its ability to sustain operations and weather market fluctuations effectively.

**Valuation**

NEM's trailing P/E appears elevated, but a lower forward P/E signals expected earnings growth. The negative PEG ratio, however, introduces uncertainty about whether these optimistic projections will materialize. Without peer comparison data, it's difficult to gauge whether the stock is fairly valued relative to its industry.

**Risk**

NEM carries below-average volatility risk due to its low beta, making it a relatively stable choice. Major risks are external—primarily tied to gold price swings and geopolitical factors affecting mining operations. The absence of significant short interest reduces near-term downside pressure from bearish bets.

**Investment Recommendation**

Based on the analysis, NEM presents a compelling case for long-term investors seeking exposure to a financially sound gold producer with low volatility. Strong fundamentals and reasonable forward valuation support a buy stance, though entering on short-term dips may be prudent given overbought technical conditions. Investors should monitor gold price trends and global economic indicators, as these will heavily influence performance. This is not investment advice, for reference only.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the comprehensive analysis, the 12-month outlook for NEM is moderately bullish, supported by strong fundamentals but tempered by current valuation and external dependencies.

Key catalysts for upside will be sustained high gold prices driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and any signs of global economic uncertainty, which would bolster demand for the safe-haven asset. NEM's own operational strength and financial health position it to capitalize on these conditions.

The primary risks are external, specifically a significant downturn in gold prices or unexpected operational disruptions at its mining sites. The stock's current overbought technical condition also presents a near-term risk of a pullback.

Given the absence of a specific analyst target and the stock's current elevated level, a prudent 12-month target range would be contingent on gold's performance, but a range of $125-$140 seems reasonable if the positive fundamental and macro trends continue.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Newmont Corporation's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $116.85, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, NEM has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

NEM has demonstrated exceptionally strong bullish performance with substantial gains across multiple timeframes.

Over the past month and three months, NEM has surged 14.15% and 43.57%, respectively, significantly outperforming the market by 42.47% over the three-month period. Despite its low beta suggesting historically lower volatility, recent momentum has been notably robust.

Currently trading at $118.17, the stock sits in the upper portion of its 52-week range ($41.23 to $134.88), approximately 19% below its yearly high. Given its rapid ascent and proximity to the 52-week peak, the stock appears overbought in the near term.

Revenue & Profitability NEM maintains strong profitability with Q3 2025 revenue of $5.38 billion and a robust net income margin of 34.1%. While revenue grew modestly from Q2, the net income margin declined slightly from 39.1% due to increased tax expenses, though operating margins remain healthy at 45.7%.

Financial Health The company demonstrates excellent financial strength with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17 and high interest coverage of 47.3x. Strong cash ratios and operating cash flow generation provide ample liquidity, supported by a cash conversion cycle of under 70 days.

Operational Efficiency NEM shows moderate efficiency metrics with ROE at 5.5% and asset turnover of 0.10. While inventory turnover appears low at 1.14, the company maintains solid cash flow generation with operating cash flow per share of $2.09, indicating effective capital utilization despite capital-intensive operations.

Valuation Level NEM's current TTM PE of 18.95 is relatively high, but its forward PE of approximately 12.6 suggests a significant expected improvement in earnings. However, the negative PEG ratio of -1.24 indicates that earnings forecasts may be declining, which casts doubt on the forward-looking optimism. Overall, the valuation relies heavily on future earnings growth materializing as projected.

Peer Comparison A reliable peer comparison cannot be conducted as the necessary industry average data is unavailable. Valuation metrics such as PE, PB, and EV/EBITDA must be contextualized against sector benchmarks to determine if NEM trades at a premium or discount. Without this comparative data, the assessment of NEM's relative value remains incomplete.

Based on the provided metrics, NEM exhibits below-average volatility risk relative to the broader market. Its Beta of 0.437 indicates the stock is significantly less volatile, meaning it typically experiences smaller price swings than the overall market. The maximum drawdown of -19.99% over the past year, while notable, is moderate for a commodity-linked stock and aligns with the lower volatility profile suggested by the Beta.

The lack of reported short interest suggests that bearish sentiment among sophisticated investors is currently minimal, which removes a potential source of rapid downside pressure. However, as a major gold producer, the primary risks facing NEM are external, stemming from fluctuations in gold prices, operational challenges at mining sites, and exposure to geopolitical factors in the countries where it operates. While liquidity is typically strong for a large-cap company like Newmont, its performance remains heavily dependent on commodity cycles.