Nucor
NUE
$256.47
+2.90%
Nucor Corporation is North America's largest steel producer, manufacturing sheet, plate, structural, bar, and tubular steel products primarily from scrap using electric arc furnaces, alongside a downstream steel products fabrication business and a raw materials segment supplying scrap and direct-reduced iron. As the most diversified and lowest-cost domestic steelmaker, Nucor occupies a distinct position as a cyclical commodity producer with a structural cost advantage, a scrap-based EAF footprint that is materially less carbon-intensive than blast-furnace peers, and a long-standing shareholder-return culture anchored by a decades-long dividend record. The current investor narrative centers on a powerful cyclical earnings recovery — Q3 2026 revenue rose 32% year over year to $11.25 billion with EPS of $5.81 versus $2.63 a year earlier — driven by improved steel pricing, firm domestic demand, and a tariff regime (Section 301 replacement duties of 10%–12.5% across 60 countries and a 25% levy on Brazilian steel) that is shielding domestic producers from import competition. Debate now hinges on whether this pricing upcycle is durable into 2027 or merely a tariff-supported spike, with the stock's sharp early-November pullback suggesting investors are questioning how much of the recovery is already discounted.…
NUE
Nucor
$256.47
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NUE Today?
Rating: Buy. Nucor's Q3 2026 earnings recovery is real and accelerating — EPS of $5.81 versus $2.63 a year earlier, revenue up 32% to $11.25 billion, and gross margin expanding from 11.2% to 20.7% over four quarters — and the stock trades at only 11.1x forward earnings against a $296.81 average analyst target that implies +21% upside. The core thesis is that tariff-protected domestic steel pricing and Nucor's low-cost scrap-based EAF model can sustain earnings near the $18.50 consensus 2027 EPS, making the forward multiple undemanding despite the 69% one-year run.
Supporting evidence is broad: 14 of 16 analysts rate the stock Buy (recommendation mean 1.65), the 1.16x PS ratio sits near the low end of its historical 2.4x–5.9x range, TTM free cash flow of $2.658 billion comfortably funds $629 million of quarterly capex plus $128 million of dividends and $506 million of buybacks, and debt-to-equity of 0.34 with 266x interest coverage removes balance-sheet risk. The margin ramp — gross margin from 11.2% (Q4 2025) to 15.8% to 19.6% to 20.7% (Q3 2026) — demonstrates genuine operating leverage, and the 1.36% dividend yield with a conservative 29.4% payout ratio adds an income cushion.
Key risks are the durability of the tariff-supported pricing cycle, the stock's 1.815 beta and demonstrated 8.3% single-day decline, and the 10.07x EV/EBITDA premium to the historical 6–8x steel range. The rating would upgrade to a higher-conviction Buy if the stock holds the $240–$245 support zone and Q4 earnings confirm margins above 20%, and would downgrade to Hold if steel pricing rolls over, forward EPS estimates fall below $15, or the shares break decisively below $228. At 11.1x forward earnings and 1.16x sales, NUE is fairly valued to modestly undervalued relative to its own history and the analyst consensus, but not cheap enough to ignore cyclical risk.
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NUE 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward-looking case is constructive: Nucor's earnings recovery is steep and sequential (EPS $1.64 to $3.23 to $5.05 to $5.81 over four quarters), margins are expanding, and the 11.1x forward multiple leaves room for re-rating toward the $296.81 consensus target if 2027 EPS of $18.50 is delivered. Tariff protection and a conservative balance sheet (0.34 debt-to-equity, 266x interest coverage) underpin the base case, which carries 50% probability and a $270–$297 range. The main offset is the stock's 1.815 beta and the 8.3% single-day November 5 selloff, which show how quickly sentiment can reverse if pricing data soften; the bear case at 20% probability anchors to the $226 low target. I would upgrade to high confidence if Q4 results confirm gross margin above 20% and the stock reclaims $260, and would downgrade to neutral if forward EPS estimates fall below $15 or the shares break below $228.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nucor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $296.81 and implied upside of +15.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$296.81
17 analysts
Implied Upside
+15.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
17
covering this stock
Price Range
$226 - $335
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust with 16 analysts, and sentiment is decisively bullish: 14 Buy ratings, 2 Hold, and 1 Sell, yielding a consensus recommendation of "buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.65 (where 1.0 is a strong buy). The average target price of $296.81 implies roughly +21% upside from the current $244.97, and the consensus 2027 EPS estimate of $18.50 and revenue estimate of $39.59 billion both point to expectations of sustained cyclical strength. The bullish tilt is reinforced by recent institutional activity — KeyBanc, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and Barclays have all reiterated Overweight ratings in late October and early November, and Freedom Broker upgraded from Hold to Buy on October 30, suggesting analysts are leaning into the post-Q3 momentum rather than fading it.
The target range of $226 to $335 is wide — a spread of $109, or roughly 45% of the current price — signaling meaningful disagreement about the cycle's durability. The high target of $335 likely assumes multiple expansion toward 15x forward earnings on peak-cycle EPS near $20, supported by continued tariff protection and infrastructure-driven demand; the low target of $226 (below the current price) implies margin compression and a fading pricing environment, essentially a return to mid-cycle earnings power. The single Sell rating and the recent high-volume selloff from $287.70 suggest some analysts see the stock as having run ahead of fundamentals, and the wide dispersion means investors should treat the consensus target as a directional signal rather than a precise price objective — particularly given the 1.815 beta and the stock's demonstrated ability to swing 8% in a single session.
Bulls vs Bears: NUE Investment Factors
The bull case currently has stronger evidence: the earnings recovery is real and accelerating (EPS $5.81 vs. $2.63 YoY, gross margin up ~950bps over four quarters), 14 of 16 analysts are bullish with a $296.81 average target implying +21% upside, and tariff protection plus a 1.16x PS ratio provide fundamental and valuation support. However, the bear case is not weak — the 8.3% single-day high-volume collapse on November 5, the 11.12x forward PE that already discounts a near-tripling of earnings, and the 1.815 beta all argue that much of the recovery is priced in. The single most important tension is whether the tariff-supported steel pricing upcycle is durable into 2027 or merely a spike: if pricing holds, the forward multiple is cheap and the stock re-rates toward the $335 high target; if pricing rolls over, both earnings and the multiple compress and the stock retests the $226 low target. Investors are effectively being asked to underwrite the durability of domestic steel spreads, and the recent distribution day suggests the market is not yet convinced.
Bullish
- Explosive earnings recovery underway: Q3 2026 EPS of $5.81 more than doubled from $2.63 a year earlier, and revenue rose 32.02% YoY to $11.25 billion from $8.52 billion. The sequential EPS progression from $1.64 (Q4 2025) to $3.23 to $5.05 to $5.81 shows a steep, accelerating recovery rather than a one-quarter blip.
- Operating leverage driving margin expansion: Gross margin climbed from 11.2% in Q4 2025 to 20.68% in Q3 2026, with operating margin reaching 16.58% on $1.865 billion of operating income. This four-quarter margin ramp is direct evidence that Nucor's scrap-based EAF model converts steel price increases into outsized profit growth.
- Strong analyst conviction and upside: 14 of 16 analysts rate NUE a Buy (recommendation mean 1.65), and the $296.81 average target implies +21% upside from $244.97. KeyBanc, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and Barclays all reiterated Overweight in late October/early November, and Freedom Broker upgraded to Buy on October 30.
- Tariff shield protects domestic pricing: Section 301 replacement duties of 10%–12.5% across 60 countries plus a 25% levy on Brazilian steel reduce import competition and support domestic steel prices. This structural protection underpins the pricing power behind the current earnings upcycle.
Bearish
- High-volume breakdown signals distribution: The stock collapsed 8.3% in a single session from $267.91 on November 4 to $245.68 on November 5 on elevated volume, then stalled at $244.97. This distribution day after a 69.34% one-year run often marks at least a short-term trend break and suggests smart money is de-risking.
- Valuation already prices a full recovery: The 11.12x forward PE assumes consensus 2027 EPS of $18.50, roughly triple the current TTM earnings base, and EV/EBITDA of 10.07x is above the historical steel range of 6–8x. Any pricing rollover would compress both the earnings estimate and the multiple simultaneously.
- Extreme volatility and cyclicality: Beta of 1.815 makes NUE roughly 82% more volatile than the market, and the stock has already shown a −18.43% max drawdown over the period. A commodity cyclical at 85% of its 52-week range with this beta carries meaningful downside if the cycle turns.
- Wide analyst dispersion on cycle durability: The $226–$335 target range spans $109, or about 45% of the current price, and the low target of $226 sits below the current price. The single Sell rating and the recent selloff reflect genuine disagreement over whether this is a durable upcycle or a tariff-supported spike.
NUE Technical Analysis
Nucor is in a powerful, sustained uptrend that has carried shares up 69.34% over the past year and 44.61% year to date, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's 9.59% and 7.83% respective gains (relative strength of +59.75% and +36.78%). At $244.97, the stock sits roughly 85% of the way through its 52-week range of $140.93 to $287.70 — closer to the highs than the lows, which signals momentum leadership but also leaves limited room before overextension. The 52-week high of $287.70 was set in late October/early November, and the stock has since retreated, meaning the current positioning reflects a high-level consolidation rather than a fresh breakout.
Short-term momentum has deteriorated sharply even as the longer-term trend remains intact, creating a meaningful divergence. The stock is down 10.15% over three months and 0.60% over the past month, versus a 1-year gain of 69.34% — a classic deceleration pattern after a parabolic run. Notably, NUE still posted a +4.39% relative-strength advantage over the S&P 500 in the past month (SPY fell 4.99%), so the recent weakness is partly market-wide rather than purely idiosyncratic. The most alarming signal is the two-day collapse from $267.91 on November 4 to $245.68 on November 5 (−8.3% in a single session) on elevated volume, followed by a flat close at $244.97 — a high-volume distribution day that often marks at least a short-term trend break.
Key technical levels are now clearly defined: support sits at the $240–$245 zone (the November 5–6 lows and prior August consolidation around $240.48), with deeper support at the $228–$233 area that contained the June–July pullbacks, and the 52-week low at $140.93 as the ultimate floor. Resistance is the recent high of $287.70; a decisive breakout above that level would confirm the uptrend's resumption and likely target new highs, while a breakdown below $240 would signal a deeper mean-reversion toward the $228 support and potentially the 200-day trend. With a beta of 1.815, Nucor is roughly 82% more volatile than the market — position sizing must account for this, and the maximum drawdown of −18.43% over the period underscores that this is a high-amplitude cyclical where stop discipline matters.
Beta
1.81
1.81x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-18.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$141-$288
Price range past year
Annual Return
+79.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NUE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.5% | -3.7% |
| 3m | -5.6% | -2.9% |
| 6m | +10.1% | +0.2% |
| 1y | +79.8% | +10.1% |
| ytd | +51.4% | +10.0% |
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NUE Fundamental Analysis
Nucor's revenue trajectory has inflected decisively upward after a trough: Q3 2026 revenue of $11.25 billion grew 32.02% year over year from $8.52 billion, extending a clear sequential acceleration from $9.50 billion in Q1 and $10.40 billion in Q2 2026, versus the depressed $7.69 billion in Q4 2025. The recovery is broad-based across product lines, with sheet steel the largest contributor at $2.79 billion, followed by bar at $1.69 billion, steel products at $988 million, structural at $853 million, plate at $703 million, raw materials at $674 million, tubular at $528 million, and rebar fabrication at $479 million. This mix — heavily weighted toward sheet and long products tied to non-residential construction and manufacturing — implies the growth is being driven by both volume recovery and pricing power from tariff-protected domestic markets, a combination that supports earnings durability if construction demand holds.
Profitability has expanded dramatically through 2026: Q3 net income reached $1.319 billion with a gross margin of 20.68%, up from $743 million and 15.81% in Q1 and $378 million and 11.21% in Q4 2025, while operating income climbed to $1.865 billion (16.58% operating margin) from $1.123 billion in Q1. The sequential margin progression — gross margin from 11.2% to 15.8% to 19.6% to 20.7% across the last four quarters — is the clearest evidence of operating leverage in a scrap-based EAF model as steel spreads widen. Net margin of 11.73% in Q3 is healthy for a commodity steelmaker and well above the 4.92% trough in Q4 2025, though investors should recognize these margins remain below the 2021–2022 cycle peaks (when gross margins exceeded 30%), leaving room for further upside if pricing holds.
Balance sheet and cash generation are solid but not fortress-like: debt-to-equity of 0.34 is conservative for the industry, the current ratio of 2.94 signals ample liquidity, and interest coverage of 266x in Q3 reflects minimal leverage risk. Free cash flow turned strongly positive at $1.607 billion in Q3 (versus just $225 million in Q1 and negative $3 million in Q4 2025), with TTM FCF of $2.658 billion, comfortably funding $629 million of quarterly capex, $128 million of dividends, and $506 million of buybacks. ROE of 8.33% and ROA of 8.82% remain below mid-cycle levels given the recent earnings trough, but the improving FCF profile and 1.36% dividend yield with a conservative 29.4% payout ratio suggest the company can self-fund growth while returning capital — a key differentiator versus more leveraged peers.
Quarterly Revenue
$11.2B
2026-09
Revenue YoY Growth
+32.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
20.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NUE Overvalued?
Because Nucor is solidly profitable (Q3 net income of $1.319 billion), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at 21.66x trailing earnings but only 11.12x forward earnings — a dramatic 49% compression that implies the market expects earnings to roughly double, consistent with consensus 2027 EPS estimates of $18.50 versus the current TTM EPS of $0.05 (distorted by the 2025 trough). This wide trailing-to-forward gap signals that investors are pricing in a full cyclical recovery, and the forward multiple of 11.1x is the more economically meaningful anchor.
On a peer basis, the 11.1x forward PE sits at a modest premium to the steel sector's typical mid-cycle 8–10x range, while the 1.16x PS ratio and 1.80x PB ratio are reasonable for a diversified, low-cost producer with superior margins. The EV/EBITDA of 10.07x is somewhat elevated versus historical steel multiples of 6–8x, reflecting the market's willingness to pay up for Nucor's EAF cost advantage and tariff-protected earnings. The 1.36% dividend yield and 11.64x price-to-cash-flow are consistent with a mature cyclical trading at fair-to-slightly-rich levels, and the negative PEG ratio of −1.95 is a statistical artifact of trough earnings rather than a meaningful signal.
Historically, Nucor's PE has ranged from 4x at 2022 cycle peaks to over 38x at 2025 earnings troughs, so the current 21.66x trailing multiple sits in the middle of that band but is trending down as earnings recover. The PS ratio of 1.16x is near the low end of its historical 2.4x–5.9x range, which is the strongest valuation argument: if revenue holds near $11 billion quarterly, the stock is inexpensive on sales even after a 69% one-year rally. The key risk is that the market is already capitalizing peak-cycle earnings — the forward PE of 11.1x assumes the recovery is delivered, and any pricing rollover would compress both the E and the multiple simultaneously.
PE
21.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
21.1x
Industry PE ~21.1x*
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on the cyclicality of Nucor's earnings and the dependence of the current recovery on steel pricing. Q3 2026 net income of $1.319 billion and 20.68% gross margin are strong, but they remain below the 2021–2022 cycle peaks when gross margins exceeded 30%, and the trough was severe — Q4 2025 net income was just $378 million on an 11.21% gross margin, with Q1 2025 EPS of only $0.67. Revenue is concentrated in sheet steel ($2.79 billion of Q3 revenue) tied to non-residential construction and manufacturing, so a construction slowdown would hit the largest product line directly. The balance sheet is conservative (debt-to-equity 0.34, current ratio 2.94, interest coverage 266x), so leverage is not the risk; the risk is earnings volatility, with TTM EPS of roughly $0.05 versus a 2027 consensus of $18.50 showing how violently the earnings base can swing. Free cash flow of $2.658 billion TTM comfortably funds $629 million of quarterly capex, $128 million of dividends, and $506 million of buybacks, but that FCF is itself cycle-dependent and would compress sharply in a pricing downturn.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression and the tariff regime's durability. At 11.12x forward earnings and 10.07x EV/EBITDA, NUE trades at a premium to the steel sector's mid-cycle 8–10x forward PE and 6–8x EV/EBITDA, so any deceleration in the recovery would compress the multiple as well as the earnings. The tariff shield — Section 301 replacement duties of 10%–12.5% across 60 countries and a 25% levy on Brazilian steel — is a policy variable, not a structural moat; a trade deal, exemption, or policy reversal could quickly restore import competition and pressure domestic prices. With a beta of 1.815, NUE is roughly 82% more volatile than the market, and the recent 8.3% single-day drop from $267.91 to $245.68 on elevated volume shows how quickly sentiment can shift. Sector rotation is also a live threat: the stock's 3-month relative strength of −5.24% versus the S&P 500 shows it has recently lagged even as its one-year relative strength remains +59.75%, a classic late-cycle leadership handoff pattern.
The worst-case scenario is a pricing rollover combined with multiple compression. If steel prices fade as tariff protection erodes or construction demand softens, consensus 2027 EPS of $18.50 would be revised sharply lower, and the forward PE would likely compress toward the sector's 8x mid-cycle level, creating a double hit to the stock. The realistic downside is anchored by the analyst low target of $226 (about −8% from $244.97) and the deeper technical support at $228–$233, but a full return to mid-cycle earnings power could push the stock toward the 52-week low of $140.93 — roughly −42% from the current price. The demonstrated max drawdown of −18.43% over the period is a more modest guide, but given the 1.815 beta and the stock's ability to swing 8% in a single session, investors should size positions for a −20% to −40% adverse scenario rather than the historical average drawdown.
FAQ
From a risk/reward standpoint the setup is favorable but not asymmetric enough to be a table-pounding buy. The stock at $244.97 offers roughly +21% upside to the $296.81 average analyst target, backed by 14 of 16 Buy ratings and a 1.65 recommendation mean, while the analyst low target of $226 sits only about 8% below the current price and the $240–$245 zone has so far held as support. The earnings engine is genuinely improving — EPS of $5.81 in Q3 2026 versus $2.63 a year earlier, with gross margin up roughly 950bps over four quarters — and 11.12x forward earnings is undemanding if the $18.50 2027 consensus is delivered. The biggest downside risk is a tariff-driven pricing rollover that would compress both earnings and the multiple, with a deeper retest toward $228–$233 and, in an extreme case, the $140.93 52-week low. It is a good buy for cyclical-tolerant investors with a 12–24 month horizon who size positions for a −20% to −40% adverse scenario; it is less suitable for conservative or income-focused portfolios given the 1.815 beta and 1.36% yield.