GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF

Based on the provided data, NVD presents an exceptionally high-risk profile that makes it unsuitable for most investors. The technical analysis reveals catastrophic performance, with the stock down 86.5% from its high and exhibiting extreme, inverse volatility. Critically, the complete absence of fundamental data—including revenue, profitability, and debt levels—means the company's underlying health is a complete unknown. This lack of transparency is a major red flag, preventing any reliable assessment of its business viability or valuation.

While the stock appears deeply oversold after a severe decline, the combination of extreme price volatility and zero fundamental visibility creates an unacceptable level of risk. This profile is characteristic of a highly speculative or potentially distressed asset.

Recommendation: STRONG SELL. The extreme price volatility, massive historical losses, and complete lack of fundamental data make this an unreasonably speculative investment. The absence of basic financial information is a critical warning sign, suggesting significant operational issues or a lack of reporting transparency. Investors should avoid this stock entirely due to the high probability of permanent capital loss and the inability to perform standard due diligence.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the comprehensive analysis provided, the 12-month outlook for NVD is exceptionally bearish and carries extreme risk.

Key catalysts for any potential recovery are virtually nonexistent given the complete absence of fundamental data, leaving any positive price movement entirely reliant on speculative, retail-driven momentum that is unpredictable and unsustainable. The primary risks are paramount and include the high probability of permanent capital loss, potential for further price collapse, and the critical lack of financial transparency which suggests severe operational distress or delisting risk. Due to the complete absence of reliable fundamental data, no defensible analyst target price can be established, and investors should expect the potential for the stock price to trend toward zero.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $6.78, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, NVD has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

Nvidia has experienced severe underperformance over the past year, characterized by extreme volatility and deep losses. The stock is currently trading near its 52-week low, reflecting persistent negative momentum.

Over the short term, NVD has continued to decline, dropping 1.41% over one month and 9.34% over three months. This performance represents a significant underperformance compared to the broader market, as indicated by the -9.32% relative strength, meaning it has fallen much more sharply than the market average. The stock's deeply negative beta of -3.46 confirms its highly volatile and inversely correlated nature.

Currently priced at $6.99, NVD sits just 9.6% above its 52-week low of $6.375 and an extraordinary 86.5% below its 52-week high of $51.615. Following a maximum drawdown of -85% over the past year, the stock appears to be in a deeply oversold condition, having undergone a substantial and sustained price collapse.

Based on the lack of available data, a meaningful fundamental analysis of NVD cannot be conducted at this time.

Without access to quarterly reports or financial ratios, it is impossible to assess the company's revenue trajectory, profitability, or margin trends. An analysis of financial health, including debt levels and cash flow stability, equally cannot be performed.

The absence of operational metrics like Return on Equity (ROE) or asset turnover ratios prevents any evaluation of the company's efficiency in utilizing its capital and assets. A comprehensive review would require the disclosure of this essential financial information.

Of course. Here is the valuation analysis for NVD based on the information provided.

Without any fundamental valuation metrics (PE, PB, PEG, EV/EBITDA) provided, a quantitative assessment of NVD's valuation is impossible. Typical valuation analysis relies on comparing these metrics to historical averages, projected growth, and industry peers. The absence of these critical data points means the stock's valuation cannot be classified as overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued through a standard analytical framework. This lack of data itself is a significant risk factor, indicating either that the company may be in a pre-revenue stage, experiencing losses, or that key financial information is not readily available.

A peer comparison is also not feasible as no industry average data has been provided. Valuation is a relative exercise, and without benchmark data for metrics like the Price-to-Earnings or Price-to-Book ratios, determining how NVD stacks up against its competitors is not possible. To conduct a meaningful analysis, both the company's specific financial metrics and relevant industry comparables are essential.

Volatility Risk: The stock exhibits extreme volatility risk, as evidenced by its deeply negative beta of -3.46, implying it tends to move sharply opposite the broader market. This is compounded by an exceptionally severe maximum drawdown of -85.01% over the past year, indicating a high potential for significant capital loss. These metrics collectively signal a highly unstable and speculative price trajectory.

Other Risks: The lack of reported short interest is not a clear positive, as it could signal extremely low trading activity or investor disinterest rather than bullish consensus. This, combined with the potential for poor liquidity given such extreme volatility, introduces substantial execution risks where entering or exiting a position could be difficult without adversely impacting the price.