NVDA

Nvidia

$203.53

-3.52%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Nvidia is a leading developer of graphics processing units (GPUs), which have evolved from enhancing gaming experiences to becoming essential semiconductors for artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, including running large language models. The company also offers the CUDA software platform for AI model development and is expanding its data center networking solutions. As the dominant player in AI chips, Nvidia commands a near-monopoly in the high-end GPU market for AI training and inference. The current investor narrative centers on the sustainability of its explosive revenue growth amid rising competition from AMD and custom chips, while recent news highlights both hyperscaler AI capex tailwinds and short-bet concerns from prominent investors like Michael Burry.

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NVDA 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $203.53
Average Target $203.53
High Target $234.06
Low Target $173.00

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nvidia's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $264.59 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$264.59

16 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

16

covering this stock

Price Range

$163 - $265

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (25%)
Hold
8 (50%)
Sell
4 (25%)

Nvidia is covered by 16 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The average analyst target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS average of $22.10 and a forward P/E of 16.49x, the implied target price is approximately $364.50 (22.10 * 16.49). This implies a significant upside of +72.8% from the current price of $210.96. The consensus recommendation is likely a Buy, given the recent ratings from firms like Cantor Fitzgerald (Overweight), Rosenblatt (Buy), and Raymond James (Strong Buy). The estimated EPS range is $16.52 to $26.29, and the estimated revenue range is $809.8 billion to $1.15 trillion, indicating a wide spread. The high target assumes continued market share gains and AI adoption acceleration, while the low target prices in potential competitive pressures or a cyclical downturn. Recent institutional ratings show no downgrades, with firms reaffirming Buy or Overweight ratings in March 2026, suggesting strong conviction among analysts. The wide EPS and revenue ranges highlight uncertainty around the pace of AI spending, but the overall sentiment remains positive.

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NVDA Technical Analysis

Nvidia's stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +28.56%. The current price of $210.96 sits at 89% of its 52-week range ($162.02 to $236.54), indicating the stock is near the upper end of its range, suggesting strong momentum but also potential overextension. The stock has recovered from a 52-week low of $162.02 in March 2026 and is now approaching resistance near the high of $236.54. Short-term momentum is positive but decelerating: the 1-month change is +5.26%, while the 3-month change is +11.84%, showing a slight slowdown from the 6-month change of +14.12%. The 1-month relative strength vs. SPY is 1.19, indicating outperformance, but the 3-month relative strength is 0.73, suggesting recent underperformance versus the market. This divergence could signal a temporary pullback or consolidation before the next leg higher. The 52-week low of $162.02 provides strong support, while the 52-week high of $236.54 is a key resistance level. A breakout above $236.54 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $162.02 would be a bearish reversal. Nvidia's beta of 2.211 indicates it is 121% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning larger price swings and higher risk for position sizing.

Beta

2.21

2.21x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-20.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$162-$237

Price range past year

Annual Return

+23.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodNVDA ReturnS&P 500
1m-0.8%+1.0%
3m+3.6%+7.9%
6m+11.1%+8.5%
1y+23.4%+20.1%
ytd+7.8%+9.9%

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NVDA Fundamental Analysis

Nvidia's revenue trajectory is accelerating dramatically. The most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 FY2026, ended Jan 25, 2026) was $68.13 billion, up 73.2% year-over-year from $39.33 billion in the prior-year quarter. This marks a significant acceleration from the previous quarter's revenue of $57.01 billion (Q3 FY2026) and from $44.06 billion in Q1 FY2026. The Data Center segment is the primary growth driver, contributing $62.31 billion in the latest quarter, or 91.5% of total revenue, while Gaming revenue was $3.73 billion. The company is highly profitable, with net income of $42.96 billion in Q4 FY2026, up from $22.09 billion a year ago. Gross margin expanded to 75.0% from 73.0% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting strong pricing power and scale. Operating margin reached 65.0%, up from 61.1% a year ago, indicating improving operational efficiency. Nvidia's balance sheet is fortress-like. It has a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.073, indicating minimal leverage. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $96.68 billion, providing ample liquidity for investments and shareholder returns. The current ratio of 3.91x suggests strong short-term liquidity. Return on equity (ROE) is an exceptional 76.3%, reflecting high profitability and efficient capital use.

Quarterly Revenue

$68.1B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+73.2%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

75.0%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$96.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Automotive
Data Center
Gaming
OEM And Other
Professional Visualization

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Valuation Analysis: Is NVDA Overvalued?

Since Nvidia has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 37.82x, while the forward P/E is 16.49x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that earnings are expected to more than double, reflecting the company's rapid growth trajectory. Compared to the semiconductor industry average P/E of approximately 22x (based on sector data), Nvidia's trailing P/E of 37.82x represents a 72% premium. However, its forward P/E of 16.49x is actually at a 25% discount to the industry average, indicating that the market is pricing in substantial future earnings growth that justifies the current premium. Historically, Nvidia's trailing P/E has ranged from around 26x to 87x over the past few years. The current 37.82x is near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting that despite the stock's price appreciation, valuation is not stretched relative to its own history. This could indicate that the market is still pricing in optimistic growth expectations but not at extreme levels seen in 2023-2024.

PE

37.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 26x~175x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

31.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple