GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF

Based on the available data, here is a comprehensive analysis of NVDL.

Technical Analysis: NVDL's technical picture is weak. The fund has been in a sustained downtrend, significantly underperforming the market and failing to capitalize on its leveraged structure to capture upside. While the significant distance from its 52-week high suggests it is technically oversold, the extreme volatility and negative momentum indicate substantial near-term risk.

Fundamentals & Valuation: A fundamental or valuation analysis is not possible. As an ETF, NVDL does not have financial statements like a company. Its value is derived from the performance of the underlying NVIDIA-linked instruments it holds, which are already reflected in its price. Therefore, traditional metrics like P/E ratios are not applicable.

Risk: Risk is exceptionally high. The 3.7 beta means NVDL is designed to be extremely volatile, amplifying both market gains and, as recent performance shows, market losses. The massive 58% maximum drawdown highlights the severe potential for capital loss, making it unsuitable for investors with a low risk tolerance.

Overall Recommendation:

NVDL is not a buy for most investors. It is a highly specialized, leveraged trading instrument intended for short-term speculation by those who can tolerate extreme volatility. The recent pronounced underperformance demonstrates the inherent risks of leverage decay during volatile or down markets. For investors seeking exposure to NVIDIA, a direct investment in the company's stock (NVDA) presents a far less risky alternative. This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on the comprehensive analysis provided, the 12-month outlook for NVDL is exceptionally volatile and fraught with risk.

Key catalysts for any significant price appreciation are strictly dependent on a sustained, powerful bull run in its underlying asset, NVIDIA (NVDA), as the fund's leveraged structure is designed to amplify gains from such a move.

Potential risks, however, are paramount and include the high probability of continued underperformance due to leverage decay—especially in sideways or volatile markets—and the extreme 3.7 beta, which amplifies losses and makes the massive 58% drawdown a recurring threat.

Given the fund's nature as a short-term trading vehicle and the extreme volatility, establishing a conventional 12-month target price range is not prudent; the primary outlook is for high volatility with a significant risk of capital loss, making it unsuitable for a typical investment horizon.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF's 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $86.75, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, NVDL has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

NVDL has experienced significant volatility and declines over recent periods, substantially underperforming the market despite its leveraged nature. The stock demonstrates extreme price swings characteristic of its high-beta profile, with dramatic gains and losses within its 52-week range.

Short-term performance shows consistent weakness, with NVDL declining 4.41% over one month and 13.53% over three months, significantly underperforming the market by 13.51% during the latter period. This underperformance is notable given the fund's 3.7 beta, suggesting it has failed to capture market upside while amplifying downside moves.

Currently trading at $84.12, NVDL sits approximately 29% below its 52-week high but remains 264% above its low, indicating a recovery from deeper losses but still well off peak levels. Given the substantial 58% maximum drawdown and recent negative momentum, the stock appears oversold but remains highly volatile due to its leveraged structure.

Based on the information provided, no fundamental analysis of NVDL can be conducted as there is no financial data available. The absence of a recent quarterly report and financial ratios prevents any assessment of the company's revenue, profitability, financial health, or operational efficiency. Without this critical data, it is impossible to evaluate the company's fundamental performance or financial position. Investors should seek out publicly available financial statements or disclosures to enable a proper analysis.

Valuation metrics cannot be analyzed for NVDL as all standard valuation ratios (PE, PB, PEG, EV/EBITDA) are unavailable. This lack of fundamental data prevents any determination of whether the stock is overvalued or undervalued using traditional financial analysis methods.

A peer comparison is not feasible due to the absence of industry average data alongside the missing company-specific metrics. Without available industry benchmarking information, it is impossible to contextualize NVDL's valuation relative to its sector or competitors.

Volatility is exceptionally high, as indicated by the extreme beta of 3.7, which implies the stock moves nearly four times more than the broader market. This is compounded by a severe one-year maximum drawdown of -57.97%, underscoring a high potential for significant capital depreciation during market downturns.

Other risks include nonexistent short interest, which could suggest over-optimism and a lack of downside price pressure from short sellers. The unusual lack of short interest warrants scrutiny, as it may mask liquidity risks or concentrated ownership that could exacerbate volatility in a sell-off.