ONEOK, Inc.

Based on a comprehensive review, OKE presents a compelling case for long-term investors comfortable with moderate risk in the energy sector.

Technical Analysis shows strong positive momentum, with the stock significantly outperforming the market recently. While there is still potential upside to its previous high, the substantial historical drawdown highlights its sensitivity to market downturns, necessitating a risk-tolerant approach.

Fundamentally, OKE demonstrates solid revenue growth, stable profitability, and adequate debt management. However, weak liquidity metrics and low operational efficiency returns are notable concerns that warrant monitoring.

Valuation appears reasonable, with a forward P/E suggesting anticipated earnings growth. The lack of peer comparison data limits a full relative value assessment, but absolute metrics do not signal significant overvaluation.

Buy Recommendation: OKE is worth considering for investors seeking exposure to the stable midstream energy sector. The combination of strong recent momentum, reasonable valuation, and steady fundamental growth outweighs the concerns regarding operational efficiency and liquidity for a long-term hold. It is best suited for a diversified portfolio with an understanding of the sector's inherent cyclicality.

RockFlow Model Forecast: Three Scenarios for 2026

Based on a comprehensive analysis, here is a 12-month outlook for OKE.

12-Month Outlook for OKE:

OKE's outlook is positive, driven by its strong position in the stable midstream energy sector, which benefits from consistent fee-based revenue and anticipated earnings growth reflected in its reasonable valuation. The primary catalyst will be sustained demand for energy infrastructure, supporting its solid revenue and profitability. Key risks include its historical sensitivity to broad market downturns and fundamental concerns regarding weak liquidity metrics and low operational efficiency. Given the lack of a specific analyst target, a reasonable 12-month target price range could be $90 - $100, contingent on stable energy markets and improved operational execution.

Wall Street Consensus

Most Wall Street analysts are optimistic about ONEOK, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with consensus target around $86.88, indicating expected upside potential.

Overall, OKE has investment potential but also faces challenges. Here are key factors to weigh before investing.

OKE has demonstrated strong positive momentum with substantial gains across multiple timeframes. The stock has significantly outperformed the broader market recently, though it remains well below its peak valuation from the past year.

Over the past one and three months, OKE has delivered impressive returns of 16.71% and 23.91% respectively, substantially outperforming the market by 23.93% on a relative basis. This robust short-term performance suggests strong investor sentiment and positive catalysts driving the stock higher.

Currently trading at $85.61, OKE sits approximately 43% above its 52-week low but remains about 17% below its annual high, indicating there is still potential upside to previous resistance levels. Despite recent appreciation, the moderate beta of 0.918 suggests the stock's volatility remains slightly below market average, though the substantial 37% max drawdown highlights the elevated risk profile during downturns.

Revenue & Profitability OKE demonstrated solid revenue growth from $7.89B in Q2 to $8.63B in Q3 2025, with net income increasing from $841M to $939M. Profit margins remained stable, with the net profit margin improving slightly to 10.88% in Q3. This reflects steady operational performance and effective cost management despite rising interest expenses.

Financial Health The company maintains moderate leverage with a debt ratio of 0.51 and debt-to-equity of 1.53, though interest coverage of 3.46 provides adequate servicing capacity. However, weak liquidity metrics are concerning, with current and quick ratios below 1 indicating potential short-term liquidity pressure. The cash flow to debt ratio of 0.05 suggests limited cash generation relative to debt obligations.

Operational Efficiency Operational efficiency shows mixed results, with a modest ROE of 4.25% and low asset turnover of 0.13 indicating suboptimal asset utilization. The 5-day cash conversion cycle demonstrates effective working capital management. However, the low fixed asset turnover of 0.16 suggests significant capital intensity in operations.

Valuation Level: OKE's TTM PE of 16.64 and forward PE of 12.18 suggest a transitioning valuation. The notable discount of the forward multiple relative to the trailing figure indicates anticipated earnings growth, which is further supported by a PEG ratio slightly above 1.0, implying the stock is trading close to its fair value based on growth expectations. The elevated EV/EBITDA of 37.92, however, points to a richer valuation when considering the company's capital structure and operational earnings.

Peer Comparison: A quantitative peer comparison cannot be performed as the requested industry average data is unavailable. An accurate assessment of whether OKE's multiples represent a premium or discount to its sector would require this benchmarking information for metrics like PE, PB, and EV/EBITDA. Therefore, the valuation conclusion remains limited to an absolute perspective without a relative market position.

Volatility: OKE exhibits moderate volatility risk, with its beta of 0.918 implying it is slightly less volatile than the broader market. However, the significant 1-year maximum drawdown of -37.18% highlights substantial downside risk during market downturns, indicating investors should be prepared for considerable price swings.

Other Risks: The absence of short interest suggests minimal active bearish sentiment, which is favorable. However, this does not preclude other risks, and investors should still assess factors such as the firm's liquidity, debt levels, and exposure to commodity price fluctuations inherent to the midstream energy sector.