ONEOK
OKE
$94.60
-1.47%
Oneok, Inc. is a diversified midstream energy company that provides natural gas gathering, processing, storage, and transportation, as well as natural gas liquids (NGL) transportation and fractionation, and refined products and crude oil services across the midcontinent, Permian, and Rocky Mountain regions. As a major player in the U.S. midstream sector, Oneok distinguishes itself through its integrated asset network and fee-based business model, which provides stable cash flows and a strong competitive moat. The current investor narrative centers on robust volume growth, raised 2026 guidance, and a compelling 4.7% dividend yield, while the market also debates the sustainability of its growth projects and the impact of energy price volatility on its refined products segment.…
OKE
ONEOK
$94.60
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy OKE Today?
Based on the analysis, Oneok is rated a Buy. The company's strong revenue growth, attractive dividend yield, and reasonable valuation support this rating. The analyst consensus is 'buy' with an average target price of $96.29, implying a modest 1.4% upside from the current price, but the high target of $108 suggests potential for 13.7% upside if growth continues.
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OKE 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment leans bullish, driven by strong revenue growth and a high dividend yield, but with medium confidence due to the high debt and mixed analyst sentiment. The forward PE being higher than trailing suggests potential earnings headwinds, but the company's growth prospects and reasonable valuation support a positive outlook. If revenue growth continues above 15% and debt levels are managed, the stock could outperform. However, a downgrade in stance would occur if energy prices collapse or if the company fails to meet guidance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ONEOK's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $96.48 and implied upside of +2.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$96.48
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+2.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$88 - $108
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $88.00 to a high of $108.00, with the high target implying a 13.7% upside and the low target implying a 7.4% downside. The wide spread of $20 suggests significant uncertainty about Oneok's future performance, likely due to volatile energy prices and the company's expansion projects. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of actions, including a downgrade from Scotiabank from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform in April 2026, while Jefferies reiterated a Buy in April 2026, and Barclays maintained Equal Weight in July 2026. This mixed sentiment, combined with the moderate upside to the average target, suggests that investors should expect near-term consolidation, with the stock likely to trade within a range until clearer catalysts emerge.
Bulls vs Bears: OKE Investment Factors
Oneok presents a compelling investment case with strong revenue growth, a high dividend yield, and a reasonable valuation. However, high debt levels, mixed analyst sentiment, and sensitivity to energy prices introduce notable risks. The bull case is currently stronger, supported by robust volume growth and raised guidance, but the bear case highlights potential earnings headwinds and leverage concerns. The most critical tension is whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory while managing its debt burden, as this will determine if the forward PE compression is justified.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue of $9.618 billion grew 19.6% YoY, accelerating from 8.9% in Q1 2025. This robust growth is driven by strong volumes across NGL and refined products segments, indicating solid demand for midstream services.
- Attractive Dividend Yield: With a dividend yield of 5.58% and a payout ratio of 76.1%, Oneok offers a compelling income stream. The company's robust cash flow generation supports the sustainability of this dividend, making it attractive for income-focused investors.
- Raised 2026 Guidance: Management raised 2026 guidance, signaling confidence in continued volume growth and operational efficiency. This positive outlook is supported by recent news and suggests potential upside to current estimates.
- Low Valuation Relative to Growth: The trailing PE of 13.5x is modest for a company with 19.6% revenue growth. Even with a forward PE of 15.1x, the PEG ratio of 2.93 indicates that the market is not fully pricing in the growth potential, offering value.
Bearish
- High Debt Levels: Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.46 indicates significant leverage, which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise or earnings decline. Interest expenses of $439 million in Q1 2026 represent a substantial fixed cost.
- Forward PE Higher Than Trailing: The forward PE of 15.1x is higher than the trailing PE of 13.5x, implying the market expects earnings to decline. This is unusual for a growth company and may signal concerns about margin compression or rising costs.
- Mixed Analyst Sentiment: Recent actions include a downgrade from Scotiabank and a maintained Equal Weight from Barclays, while Jefferies reiterated Buy. This mixed sentiment suggests uncertainty about the company's near-term prospects.
- Sensitivity to Energy Prices: The refined products and crude oil segment, which contributed $4.716 billion in Q1 2026, is exposed to commodity price volatility. A downturn in energy prices could negatively impact volumes and margins.
OKE Technical Analysis
Oneok's stock is in a clear uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +27.0% and a YTD gain of +27.8%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1-year return of +20.4%. The current price of $94.99 sits near the top of its 52-week range, at approximately 98.9% of the range (calculated as (94.99-64.02)/(96.07-64.02)), indicating strong momentum and bullish sentiment, though it also suggests the stock may be approaching overbought conditions. The 52-week low of $64.02 and high of $96.07 provide clear reference points, with the stock trading just 1.1% below its high.
Beta
0.71
0.71x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$64-$98
Price range past year
Annual Return
+28.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OKE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +3.0% | +1.9% |
| 3m | +0.6% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +8.3% | +10.6% |
| 1y | +28.4% | +19.5% |
| ytd | +27.3% | +11.8% |
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OKE Fundamental Analysis
Oneok's revenue trajectory is robust, with Q1 2026 revenue of $9.618 billion, up 19.6% year-over-year from $8.043 billion in Q1 2025, and sequentially higher than Q4 2025's $9.065 billion. The multi-quarter trend shows acceleration, with revenue growing from $7.887 billion in Q2 2025 to $8.634 billion in Q3 2025, $9.065 billion in Q4 2025, and $9.618 billion in Q1 2026, driven by strong volumes across its segments, particularly Natural Gas Liquids ($3.646 billion) and Refined Products and Crude Oil ($4.716 billion). This growth is supported by raised 2026 guidance, as highlighted in recent news, indicating management's confidence in continued expansion.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.6B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+19.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
26.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is OKE Overvalued?
Given that Oneok has positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 13.5x, while the forward PE is 15.1x, implying that the market expects earnings to decline slightly over the next year, which is unusual for a growth-oriented midstream company. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests that the market is pricing in potential margin compression or higher costs, despite the company's strong revenue growth. Alternatively, the forward PE may reflect conservative analyst estimates, as the consensus EPS for 2026 is $7.56, which would imply a forward PE of 12.6x based on the current price, indicating a more optimistic outlook.
PE
13.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 12x~20x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. Oneok's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.46 indicates high leverage, with interest expenses of $439 million in Q1 2026 consuming a large portion of operating income. The current ratio of 0.71 suggests potential liquidity concerns, as current liabilities exceed current assets. Additionally, the payout ratio of 76.1% leaves limited room for dividend increases or unexpected cash needs, and the company's reliance on continued volume growth to service debt is a key risk.