ONEOK
OKE
$93.90
+0.84%
Oneok, Inc. is a diversified midstream energy company that gathers, processes, stores, and transports natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs), and also operates refined product and crude oil assets across the Midcontinent, Permian, and Rocky Mountain regions. It is one of the largest pure-play midstream operators in North America, distinguished by an integrated NGL value chain that spans gathering through fractionation and export, giving it fee-based cash flow characteristics that insulate results from commodity price swings. The current investor narrative centers on the company's aggressive Permian expansion — most recently the announced Brazos Midland acquisition — alongside raised 2026 guidance, robust volume growth, and rising natural gas demand tied to AI-driven power needs. Bulls point to a 5.6% dividend yield, strong free cash flow, and a 52.8% year-over-year revenue jump, while skeptics flag elevated leverage, a stretched payout ratio, and a valuation that has re-rated sharply higher over the past year.…
OKE
ONEOK
$93.90
Related headlines
OKE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ONEOK's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $101.10 and implied upside of +7.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$101.10
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+7.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$91 - $112
Analyst target range
Coverage is deep, with 20 analysts following OKE and a consensus recommendation of "buy" (mean rating of 2.27 on a scale where lower is more bullish). The average target price of $100.55 implies roughly +7.8% upside from the current $93.31, a modest but positive signal that suggests the stock is fairly valued to slightly undervalued relative to Street expectations. Consensus 2026 EPS estimates average $7.55 (range $5.87-$9.69) on average revenue of $44.4 billion, framing a constructive but not euphoric outlook.
The target range of $90.00 to $112.00 is moderately wide, signaling meaningful dispersion in views: the $112 high likely assumes successful Brazos Midland integration, continued Permian volume growth, multiple expansion toward premium midstream peers, and AI-driven gas demand tailwinds, while the $90 low — essentially at the current price — prices in margin compression, leverage concerns, or a commodity downturn. Institutional ratings show a clear tilt toward Hold/Neutral (TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Truist, Scotiabank, JP Morgan) with only Citigroup and Wells Fargo constructive, and Morgan Stanley's July downgrade from Overweight to Equal Weight is a notable negative signal. The tight clustering of targets around the current price and the predominantly neutral stance suggest limited near-term catalyst-driven upside, with the stock likely range-bound until the next earnings print or acquisition close provides clarity.
Bulls vs Bears: OKE Investment Factors
The bull case rests on harder near-term evidence: 52.77% revenue growth, $2.91 billion TTM free cash flow covering a 5.58% dividend, and 23.28 points of 12-month relative strength with a sub-0.8 beta. The bear case is more about quality of growth and price paid — gross margin has collapsed from 29.44% to 14.15% in two quarters as commodity liquids dominate the mix, leverage sits at 1.46x debt-to-equity with a 0.71 current ratio, and the stock has already re-rated 38.8% in a year to a premium midstream multiple. On balance the bull evidence is currently stronger because cash flow and volume growth are real and funded, but the single most important tension is whether the revenue surge is durable fee-based growth or commodity-linked pass-through — if liquids margins keep compressing while leverage stays elevated, the re-rating unwinds; if Brazos Midland converts into fee-based Permian volumes, the premium is justified.
Bullish
- Revenue accelerating at 52.8% YoY: Q2 2026 revenue hit $12.05 billion versus $7.89 billion a year earlier, a 52.77% jump that extends a multi-quarter acceleration from $9.07 billion in Q4 2025 and $9.62 billion in Q1 2026. The growth reflects both Permian volume gains and the expanded asset base, and management has raised 2026 guidance on the back of it.
- Robust free cash flow covers dividend: TTM free cash flow of $2.91 billion and Q2 2026 FCF of $1.44 billion (on $2.05 billion operating cash flow against $613 million capex) comfortably fund the $674 million quarterly dividend. The 5.58% yield is at the high end of the midstream peer group and is backed by cash rather than leverage.
- Low beta with market-beating returns: OKE has returned 38.81% over 12 months and 25.52% YTD versus SPY's 15.53% and 11.93%, a 23.28 percentage-point relative strength advantage, all achieved with a 0.798 beta. That combination of leadership and ~20% lower volatility than the market supports larger risk-adjusted position sizing.
- Permian expansion via Brazos Midland: The announced Brazos Midland acquisition deepens OKE's Permian footprint, adding gathering and processing volumes in the highest-growth U.S. oil basin. Combined with AI-driven natural gas demand tailwinds cited in recent coverage, it underpins a multi-year growth runway beyond current consensus revenue of $44.4 billion for 2026.
Bearish
- Leverage is elevated and liquidity thin: Debt-to-equity stands at 1.46x with total debt at 59.0% of capitalization, and the current ratio is just 0.71, meaning near-term obligations exceed current assets. Interest expense of $434 million in Q2 2026 alone consumes roughly 34% of $1.27 billion pre-tax income, leaving the balance sheet sensitive to refinancing rates.
- Gross margin compressing sharply: Gross margin fell to 14.15% in Q2 2026 from 26.67% in Q1 2026 and 29.44% in Q4 2025, a mix shift as lower-margin commodity liquids sales ($10.38 billion of the $12.05 billion total) outgrow fee-based transportation and storage ($816 million). Revenue growth is increasingly coming from the least durable, most commodity-sensitive line.
- Valuation re-rated, little margin of safety: At 13.54x trailing PE, 10.15x EV/EBITDA and 2.93x PEG, OKE trades at a modest premium to the typical 9-12x midstream EV/EBITDA band, and the 38.8% one-year gain has already priced in much of the growth story. The forward PE of 15.22x sitting above the trailing 13.54x signals expected earnings decline, an unusual inversion.
- Payout ratio leaves thin cushion: The 76.1% payout ratio means nearly four-fifths of earnings go out the door as dividends, limiting retained cash for deleveraging or funding the Brazos Midland integration. Any EBITDA shortfall from commodity weakness or integration friction would pressure the dividend's growth trajectory.
OKE Technical Analysis
OKE is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 38.81% over the past year and 25.52% year-to-date, materially outperforming the S&P 500's 15.53% and 11.93% respective gains. At a current price of $93.31, the stock sits at roughly 81.7% of its 52-week range of $64.02 to $99.85 — elevated but not at the highs, implying the stock retains upside room toward resistance while carrying some overextension risk after a strong run. The 23.28 percentage-point relative strength advantage over SPY over 12 months confirms genuine leadership rather than beta-driven drift, especially notable given the stock's low 0.798 beta.
Short-term momentum has decelerated and diverged from the longer-term trend: the 1-month change is just +0.66% and the 3-month change is -0.22%, both trailing SPY's +1.22% and +2.69% over the same windows, producing negative relative strength readings of -0.56 and -2.91. This suggests a consolidation phase or mean-reversion pause within a broader uptrend rather than a trend reversal, particularly since the 6-month change remains a healthy +11.74%. The most recent session showed a sharp +2.93% bounce off the prior close of $90.65 to $93.31 on volume of roughly 2.93 million shares, hinting that buyers are defending the $90 area and that the September pullback to $85.27 may have marked a short-term bottom.
Key technical support rests near the 52-week low of $64.02, with intermediate support around the recent $85-$86 swing lows; resistance sits at the 52-week high of $99.85, and a breakout above that level would signal a fresh leg higher and likely invite momentum buyers. A breakdown below $85 would undermine the uptrend structure and put the $80 area in play. With a beta of 0.798, OKE is roughly 20% less volatile than the market, which supports larger position sizing for risk-adjusted exposure and explains the relatively contained max drawdown of -12.97% despite the mid-year chop.
Beta
0.80
0.80x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-13.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$64-$100
Price range past year
Annual Return
+34.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OKE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.2% | -1.2% |
| 3m | +0.8% | +3.4% |
| 6m | +7.3% | +7.0% |
| 1y | +34.9% | +14.4% |
| ytd | +26.3% | +12.0% |
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OKE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing at an exceptional clip: Q2 2026 revenue reached $12.05 billion, up 52.77% year-over-year from $7.89 billion in Q2 2025, extending a multi-quarter acceleration from $9.62 billion in Q1 2026 and $9.07 billion in Q4 2025. The growth is heavily driven by liquids commodity sales of $10.38 billion, supplemented by transportation and storage revenue of $816 million and residue natural gas sales of $438 million, reflecting both volume growth and the expanded asset base from acquisitions. This trajectory — reinforced by the Brazos Midland acquisition and raised guidance — supports a durable multi-year growth case, though investors should note that commodity-linked liquids sales introduce revenue volatility even as fee-based contracts stabilize cash flow.
Profitability is solid and improving on an absolute basis: Q2 2026 net income was $966 million (up from $841 million a year earlier) on a 14.15% gross margin and 20.72% operating margin, with net margin at 10.10%. Gross margin has compressed from 26.67% in Q1 2026 and 29.44% in Q4 2025, largely a mix effect from lower-margin commodity liquids sales growing faster than fee-based segments, while EBITDA rose to $1.98 billion from $1.92 billion. The 15.10% ROE and 5.77% ROA are respectable for a capital-intensive midstream operator, and the stable ~10.8% net margin across recent quarters signals earnings consistency despite the margin mix shift.
Balance sheet leverage is the key watch item: debt-to-equity stands at 1.46x, total debt-to-capitalization at 59.0%, and the current ratio is a thin 0.71, indicating reliance on capital markets and revolving facilities for liquidity. Free cash flow is robust at $2.91 billion TTM, with Q2 2026 FCF of $1.44 billion on operating cash flow of $2.05 billion against $613 million of capex, comfortably covering the $674 million quarterly dividend — though the 76.1% payout ratio leaves a modest cushion. Interest coverage of roughly 3.7x and a cash-flow-to-debt ratio near 0.06 reflect the structural leverage typical of midstream, manageable but sensitive to rate and refinancing conditions.
Quarterly Revenue
$12.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+52.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
14.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.9B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is OKE Overvalued?
Because Oneok is solidly profitable (Q2 2026 net income of $966 million), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The trailing PE of 13.54x versus a forward PE of 15.22x implies the market expects earnings to modestly decline or that the trailing figure is flattered by one-off items — a notable inversion that warrants caution, though the forward multiple still sits well below the broader market. The 2.93 PEG ratio and 1.38x PS ratio suggest the stock is not cheap on a growth-adjusted basis despite its low headline PE.
Against the Oil & Gas Midstream industry, OKE's 13.54x trailing PE and 10.15x EV/EBITDA are broadly in line to modestly above typical midstream multiples in the 9-12x EV/EBITDA range, implying a modest premium that is arguably justified by its integrated NGL platform, superior scale, and above-peer growth. The 2.06x price-to-book and 8.27x price-to-cash-flow are reasonable for an asset-heavy business, while the 5.58% dividend yield is at the high end of the midstream peer group and provides a meaningful total-return cushion.
Historically, OKE's PE has ranged from roughly 6.8x (Q1 2023) to 23.9x (Q1 2025), and the current 13.54x sits near the middle of that band — neither stretched nor deeply discounted. However, the PS ratio of 1.38x is near the low end of its historical 3.8x-10.6x range, a distortion driven by the revenue surge from commodity liquids sales rather than multiple compression. The stock's re-rating from a PB of ~2.5x in 2023 to ~2.06x today, combined with the elevated 38.8% one-year return, suggests the market has already priced in much of the growth story, leaving less margin of safety at current levels.
PE
13.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 12x~20x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on the balance sheet and the quality of the revenue mix. Debt-to-equity of 1.46x and total debt at 59.0% of capitalization are high for a company with a 0.71 current ratio, and Q2 2026 interest expense of $434 million absorbed roughly 34% of the $1.27 billion in pre-tax income. Gross margin fell to 14.15% from 29.44% in Q4 2025 because commodity liquids sales of $10.38 billion now dwarf the $816 million of transportation and storage revenue, so reported growth is increasingly tied to lower-margin, price-sensitive volumes. The 76.1% payout ratio on a $674 million quarterly dividend leaves only a modest cushion if EBITDA of $1.98 billion slips.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression and sector rotation. At 13.54x trailing PE, 10.15x EV/EBITDA and 2.93x PEG, OKE trades at a premium to the 9-12x EV/EBITDA typical of midstream peers, and the 38.8% one-year return means expectations are already elevated. The forward PE of 15.22x exceeding the trailing 13.54x implies the market expects earnings to decline, and with a beta of 0.798 the stock is less exposed to broad market swings but still sensitive to energy-sector rotation and rate-driven yield competition. Recent news highlights both the opportunity (Brazos Midland, AI-driven gas demand) and the risk that integration costs or a Permian slowdown blunt the growth narrative that justified the re-rating; Morgan Stanley's July downgrade to Equal Weight and the predominantly Hold/Neutral institutional stance suggest limited near-term catalyst support.
In a worst-case scenario, a commodity downturn compresses liquids margins further while Brazos Midland integration costs and $434 million quarterly interest expense strain the 0.71 current ratio, forcing OKE to fund the $674 million dividend partly with debt and prompting a multiple de-rating toward the low end of its historical PE band. The stock's 52-week low of $64.02 represents roughly -31% from the current $93.31, and the analyst low target of $90.00 implies about -3.5%, so a realistic adverse outcome sits between those poles — a retest of the $85-$86 swing lows (-8%) in a mild scenario and a move toward the mid-$70s (-20%) if leverage and margin concerns compound. The historical max drawdown of -12.97% understates this risk because it was measured during a strong uptrend, not a full energy-cycle downturn.

